Opening Day Roster--10 Days Out

[stringer bell]

I did a blog entry at the start of Spring Training with a projection on the Twins' Opening Day 26-man roster. With ten days remaining until the Twins open in KC, there isn't a lot of clarity due to injury concerns, but much has been settled. A few comments and then I'll make my best guesses.

1) Most likely Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff will start the season on the Injured List. Recent news makes Kirilloff a better chance to be ready than Polanco. While Edourd Julien has impressed in camp and the WBC, Polanco's absence won't mean immediate promotion for the rookie. 

2) Despite less than stellar starts recently by Mahle and Maeda, the Twins will most likely go with five veteran starters and Bailey Ober will be optioned to St. Paul. I doubt Ober makes more than five starts for the Saints, but the option can and will be used.

3) Josh Winder and Ronnie Henriquez are still on the roster, but they won't make the club because of their ailing arms. Winder hasn't pitched in a game yet and Henriquez was shut down in the first week of camp. That leaves fourteen healthy pitchers on the 40-man roster, counting Ober. The most precarious position belongs to Cole Sands, a candidate for long relief, who does have options. Non-roster invitees Danny Coulombe, Jeff Hoffman, Jose De Leon, Randy Dobnak, and Oliver Ortega (and probably others) have a case to make the Opening Day roster. There is a spot available on the 40-man roster, so one of the non-roster guys can be added.

4) Injuries to Polanco and Kirilloff guarantee a spot for Trevor Larnach, who missed some time with an injury, but has looked pretty good since returning. The second spot could be filled by non-roster guys Kyle Garlick or Willi Castro. I'm picking Castro because of his relative youth and the fact that he would have an option available if added to the 40-man roster.

Pitchers (13)--Gray, Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Mahle, Maeda, Hoffman, Pagan, Moran, Alcala, Jax, Thielbar, Jorge Lopez, Duran.

Catchers (2)--Vazquez, Jeffers

Infielders (6)--Solano, Farmer, Gordon, Correa, Miranda, Castro

Outfielders (5)--Gallo, Buxton, Kepler, Taylor, Larnach,

Injured List (6)--Paddack (60-day), Lewis (60-day), Polanco (10-day), Kirilloff (10-day), Henriquez (15-day)*, Winder (15-day)* 

italics indicate minor league contract selected

* Winder and Henriquez may be optioned to the minors if they recover sufficiently from their injuries before Opening Day.

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

This looks accurate, and I agree, Ober will be up by May. Also, I think I prefer Dobnak to Pagan, but I don't think the Twins do.

[stringer bell]

17 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

This looks accurate, and I agree, Ober will be up by May. Also, I think I prefer Dobnak to Pagan, but I don't think the Twins do.

I'd prefer another NRI to Pagan--Coulombe or Ortiz. Both have been effective and Ortiz would give roster flexibility in that he has an option remaining.

[Greglw3]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

I did a blog entry at the start of Spring Training with a projection on the Twins' Opening Day 26-man roster. With ten days remaining until the Twins open in KC, there isn't a lot of clarity due to injury concerns, but much has been settled. A few comments and then I'll make my best guesses.

1) Most likely Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff will start the season on the Injured List. Recent news makes Kirilloff a better chance to be ready than Polanco. While Edourd Julien has impressed in camp and the WBC, Polanco's absence won't mean immediate promotion for the rookie. 

2) Despite less than stellar starts recently by Mahle and Maeda, the Twins will most likely go with five veteran starters and Bailey Ober will be optioned to St. Paul. I doubt Ober makes more than five starts for the Saints, but the option can and will be used.

3) Josh Winder and Ronnie Henriquez are still on the roster, but they won't make the club because of their ailing arms. Winder hasn't pitched in a game yet and Henriquez was shut down in the first week of camp. That leaves fourteen healthy pitchers on the 40-man roster, counting Ober. The most precarious position belongs to Cole Sands, a candidate for long relief, who does have options. Non-roster invitees Danny Coulombe, Jeff Hoffman, Jose De Leon, Randy Dobnak, and Oliver Ortega (and probably others) have a case to make the Opening Day roster. There is a spot available on the 40-man roster, so one of the non-roster guys can be added.

4) Injuries to Polanco and Kirilloff guarantee a spot for Trevor Larnach, who missed some time with an injury, but has looked pretty good since returning. The second spot could be filled by non-roster guys Kyle Garlick or Willi Castro. I'm picking Castro because of his relative youth and the fact that he would have an option available if added to the 40-man roster.

Pitchers (13)--Gray, Ryan, Pablo Lopez, Mahle, Maeda, Hoffman, Pagan, Moran, Alcala, Jax, Thielbar, Jorge Lopez, Duran.

Catchers (2)--Vazquez, Jeffers

Infielders (6)--Solano, Farmer, Gordon, Correa, Miranda, Castro

Outfielders (5)--Gallo, Buxton, Kepler, Taylor, Larnach,

Injured List (6)--Paddack (60-day), Lewis (60-day), Polanco (10-day), Kirilloff (10-day), Henriquez (15-day)*, Winder (15-day)* 

italics indicate minor league contract selected

* Winder and Henriquez may be optioned to the minors if they recover sufficiently from their injuries before Opening Day.

 

 

This is excellent! Castro makes the team, well earned and should help. I like the pen too. Hoffman seems a good inclusion. Him or Ortega. And Pagan, we can’t do anything about.

[raindog]

I think this is probably accurate. Not a huge fan of Castro, but Julien should probably be playing every day at AAA and no one else really makes sense. Not looking forward to Gordon's defense at 2B against righties. Farmer will be good against lefties. Hopefully Polanco is back sooner than later or Julien forces his way up. 

[Vanimal46]

I would go with a 6 man rotation personally, and boot Pagan from the bullpen. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, raindog said:

I think this is probably accurate. Not a huge fan of Castro, but Julien should probably be playing every day at AAA and no one else really makes sense. Not looking forward to Gordon's defense at 2B against righties. Farmer will be good against lefties. Hopefully Polanco is back sooner than later or Julien forces his way up. 

Gordon should be about as good defensively as polanco.

[raindog]

5 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Gordon should be about as good defensively as polanco.

Looking at Polanco's advanced metrics and you aren't wrong. Age and injuries haven't done him any favors. I guess 2B defense is going to be pretty bad until someone like Lewis, Lee or Martin takes it over. Not even sure any of them will be plus options defensively. 

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

This looks accurate, and I agree, Ober will be up by May. Also, I think I prefer Dobnak to Pagan, but I don't think the Twins do.

Out of curiosity which starter are you thinking might get hurt? Or are you thinking he will be so good in AAA and a relief pitcher will be so bad they have to call him up? Not super impressed with the Pen as it is, hope they prove me wrong.

[TwinsDr2021]

That infield scares me if Castro, Farmer and Solano regress to their career averages added in with the catchers, the bottom of the lineup could be real ugly. Here is hoping to Buxton and Correa starting off the year hot and when they have off days Gallo and Miranda picking up the slack.

[Mike Sixel]

40 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Out of curiosity which starter are you thinking might get hurt? Or are you thinking he will be so good in AAA and a relief pitcher will be so bad they have to call him up? Not super impressed with the Pen as it is, hope they prove me wrong.

Maeda instills no confidence in me to go 5+ innings.

[stringer bell]

I should probably put this in 3-4 different threads on TD—veteran’s stats in spring training shouldn’t be taken seriously.  
 

Let’s see how Maeda and Mahle do in their last two outings before panicking. I am much more concerned about health than veteran performance in ST. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think that looks about right.  It's nice to see Castro get a temporary spot.  We'll see if 10 days will take care of Polanco and Kiriloff.  When do the minors start playing?  Is there even a possibility of a minor league rehab/get ready spot?  I think the pitching situation will be OK from a performance standpoint.  I don't know if the five starters can all stay healthy though, so that could facilitate seeing some Bailey Ober in the near term. 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

5 hours ago, stringer bell said:

3) Non-roster invitees ... have a case to make the Opening Day roster. There is a spot available on the 40-man roster, so one of the non-roster guys can be added.

4) The second spot could be filled by non-roster guys Kyle Garlick or Willi Castro. I'm picking Castro because of his relative youth and the fact that he would have an option available if added to the 40-man roster.

This is really thorough and it seems like the only thing that may not be accounted for is one 40-man roster spot. There's one open spot currently and it looks like you have two players added with no one subtracted - unless that's what you mean by Cole Sands' precarious spot. Is that how you're guessing they'll make room?

[stringer bell]

36 minutes ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

This is really thorough and it seems like the only thing that may not be accounted for is one 40-man roster spot. There's one open spot currently and it looks like you have two players added with no one subtracted - unless that's what you mean by Cole Sands' precarious spot. Is that how you're guessing they'll make room?

Since Henriquez hasn't thrown at all, I'm guessing he could be put on the 60-day. Another candidate might be Celestino or maybe Megill or Sands could be DFAed, although I doubt it.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Since Henriquez hasn't thrown at all, I'm guessing he could be put on the 60-day. Another candidate might be Celestino or maybe Megill or Sands could be DFAed, although I doubt it.

Of course, right. I wasn't coming up with other candidates for the 60-day IL, but I wasn't really thinking of either of these guys since they've been kind of out of sight in ST and I would have guessed both would start the season in the minors anyway.

[stringer bell]

4 minutes ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

Of course, right. I wasn't coming up with other candidates for the 60-day IL, but I wasn't really thinking of either of these guys since they've been kind of out of sight in ST and I would have guessed both would start the season in the minors anyway.

Which is why they might not place either of them on the 60-day list. I'm pretty sure they would prefer to send them to the minors and not give them big-league pay or service time. If they need to find a 40-man spot, they'll do something. Of course, they could also go with Sands as the last (long reliever) arm in the 'pen and then use the 40-man spot for a position player.

[jorgenswest]

On 3/20/2023 at 10:53 AM, raindog said:

I think this is probably accurate. Not a huge fan of Castro, but Julien should probably be playing every day at AAA and no one else really makes sense. Not looking forward to Gordon's defense at 2B against righties. Farmer will be good against lefties. Hopefully Polanco is back sooner than later or Julien forces his way up. 

I think Gordon’s defense at 2B is much better than Julien’s at this point. He must have been seen as better than Arraez last year. If Arraez had the better glove I hope he would have been at 2B last year when Polanco was out. Gordon’s career RAA of 0, DRS of -2 and UZR/150 of -1.4 suggest he is a little below average over 360 innings. Given that he hasn’t played a lot of 2B there is a chance that he will be better.

I do wonder if 2B has been changing it place on the defensive spectrum. Can a good defensive 2B still prevent more runs than a good corner OF with so many fewer ground balls? I am not so sure. The gloves of Gordon or Julien or Farmer may not be as important as their bats.

[stringer bell]

Since this thread was started, Hoffman has been sent to minor league camp, signifying he won't make the club. Bailey Ober started a game and went four innings. He was charged with three runs, but still looked pretty good. Kyle Garlick would appear to be the other choice for the last position player on the active roster. He homered yesterday. Castro hasn't gotten a hit in his last two spring games and his numbers now look mediocre. Cole Sands is on the 40-man roster and made a multiple inning appearance and Danny Coulombe still hasn't allowed a run in Grapefruit games. 

Ober, Sands and Coulombe for the last spot on the pitching staff. Garlick and Castro for the last position player. If Coulombe is selected, they will have to make 40-man roster room. Sands, Ober and Castro have options.

[LA VIkes Fan]

Hoffman and De Leon are now out of the running since they've been assigned to Minor League camp (and Hoffman may now exercise his opt out). I think the Twins have all but said that Ober will be in AAA as a starter to start the season. I think a 6 man rotation is a better call but it looks like they aren't going to do that.

There's really only two questions. Garlick or Castro and Coloumbe or Sands. I predict Garlick to give us RH DH/OF bat with Gordon and Farmer playing 2B. I do think we need a multi-inning guy so I'd prefer Sands but he has an option and Coloumbe doesn't so I think Coloumbe stays. Everything else is set.    

[Rigby]

No roster spot needed  - Dennis Santana claim.

[Vanimal46]

I assumed Hoffman was going to make the team since he has an early opt out. 

I like Coloumbe but I like him even more as the first call up in AAA. 

Given the choices now, I think Ober makes the opening day roster. 

[stringer bell]

40 minutes ago, Rigby said:

No roster spot needed  - Dennis Santana claim.

Yes, one opening. Garlick or Castro would take it. If they decide to go north with Coulombe, they need to create a space for him on the 40-man. 

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

53 minutes ago, Rigby said:

No roster spot needed  - Dennis Santana claim.

After the Santana claim, they can select one player without needing to clear a roster spot. But if it's assumed that Garlick or Castro is the last position player, one of them gets the last spot, so a non-roster pitcher then would require another move.

Edit: whoops, didn't see that this was 100% redundant with the previous post!

[Squirrel]

Garlick, Ober and Coloumbe have all been reassigned to minor league camp …

 

[stringer bell]

If I’m Sands or Castro, I’m not counting on big league meal money until everyone else is cut down to 26.