Justin Morneau staying or leaving?

[clutterheart]

Morneau's .283/.326/.394 with 2 HRs in 150ish PAs is worth $13 million? Really? I bet Colabello or Parmelee can put the same numbers or better with $12.5 million to save...

 

Save for what?

 

Its not like the FO is going to invest in pitching...and I don't care about their already full bank accounts.

If it was between spending the money on Morneau or Josh Johnson, fine then spend it on Johnson...but we all know any savings from not signing Morneau will be used to line their pockets that are already full from stealing the Tax Payer's money.

[stringer bell]

I don't get it. Where are all the people calling for us to spend the surplus on a guy who is behind only Kent Hrbek and Harmon Killebrew in 1b production? I don't think we need to worry about spending a few extra millions on a clear upgrade over any other guy in the organization. Colabello? Really? Has anyone watched this past week? Justin is killing it. If he keeps this up, $13 million will be a bargain.

1) I'd say he was the guy that was 3rd in first base production behind Herby and Killer, but that guy hasn't been around since 2010. 2) If this is "killing it", your threshold for this term would include a lot of players. Since the start of his hot streak (first game at Boston), he has two extra base hits, both doubles. He has a lot of hits, but it's like a Mauer hot streak. I think the risk of injury is too high and the return of the "classic Morneau" is too unlikely to merit even half of what he is making now. To give Morneau a qualifying offer is, to me, a guarantee that he'll take the money and a near certainty that he won't be close to worth it.

[cmathewson]

1) I'd say he was the guy that was 3rd in first base production behind Herby and Killer, but that guy hasn't been around since 2010. 2) If this is "killing it", your threshold for this term would include a lot of players. Since the start of his hot streak (first game at Boston), he has two extra base hits, both doubles. He has a lot of hits, but it's like a Mauer hot streak. I think the risk of injury is too high and the return of the "classic Morneau" is too unlikely to merit even half of what he is making now. To give Morneau a qualifying offer is, to me, a guarantee that he'll take the money and a near certainty that he won't be close to worth it.

 

OK, but how do we spend this money, if not on one of the M&M boy? If we don't resign him, we are about to cross the threshold to 30% of revenue. If there's ever a case for overspending, he's it. I know he's not the 2010 Morneau, but consider what Teixeira makes. The pre-2010 Morneau was every bit as good as that guy. In the first half of 2010, he was arguably the best hitter in the game. So he's regressed from there. He's till a pretty darn good hitter.

[jm3319]

When will people stop referring to RBI totals to evaluate the value of a hitter? A guy can bat .400 and get barely any RBI and a guy can hit .200 and rack up RBI. It is simply dependent on who is on base the the time the hitter gets a hit.

 

Also, I count extra base hits in Morneau's last 10 games. If that's a "Power surge" for a first baseman with an expiring contract, he's in trouble.

[Oxtung]

I don't see any scenario in which Morneau is kept. If he goes on a hot streak and hits for some power then he should be moved because he will bring some prospects (even if those are 200ish types). If he continues to "kill it" like he has so far this season he isn't worth the investment. Talent is what this team needs to add and Morneau hasn't fallen into that category since his concussion. Save the $13M and go spend it on a FA with something resembling talent.

 

Here are some stats. Morneau's OPS ranks 20th out of all 1st baseman this year and 108th out of all MLB. So unless people think the other ~150 players batting near or above Morneau's production level (keeping in mind positional value) deserve $13 million it's better off to part ways.

 

Some potential names:

Corey Hart

Mike Napoli

James Loney (having an awesome year so far)

Kendrys Morales

Mark Reynolds

 

Or maybe you start the Mauer to 1st move earlier and sign a catcher. Some intriguing names out there this year potentially:

 

Brian McCann

John Buck

AJ Pierzynski

Jarrod Saltalmacchia

Kurt Suzuki

 

Some of those players have more talent than others but the ones with less talent also aren't going to be any where near the $13M being tossed around in this thread.

[jokin]

You are spot on concerning Morneau.

 

I dream of the days sometime in 2013-14 when the Twins sign either McCann (The Braves are catcher-rich with good, cheap players, Gattis/Laird) or Buck, move Mauer to 3rd/PT C and call up Sano to play 1st. I know, I know, only a dream...

[Gernzy]

With Arcia stepping up we need to get Parmelee out of the outfield. That is easier said then done though. Parmelee has been our best outfielder all season. He's even made some great plays. And do we really want him at first right now? I'm sure he can play the position but his offensive numbers are not where he should be.

 

It's a tough call.

[Blackjack]

If there was a draft pick tied to letting Morneau walk, that’s what the Twins would do, it saves face and lets Morneau be the bad guy looking for a bigger contract ala Tori Hunter. Now with the new rules and no draft pick coming back, the decision gets much tougher.

 

What if the Twins are still in contention (<5 games out) when the trade deadline? Do you alienate the fans by trading one of your main players?? I don't think the Twins will do that - even though they should, it eliminates the logjam in the outfield and lets the younger guys play.

 

I don’t think Morneau would accept a lesser contract from the Twins at the end of the season, too much pride. It’s a lot easier to take a pay cut from another team and say “I want to win a World Series”.

 

My guess is 25% chance that he is traded, 70% chance that he plays out the season with the Twins and signs elsewhere, and 5% chance that he resigns with the Twins.

[ThePuck]

 

What if the Twins are still in contention (<5 games out) when the trade deadline? Do you alienate the fans by trading one of your main players?? I don't think the Twins will do that

 

Ryan has done it before...though I think we were 6 or 7 games back with 2 months left...

[Mike Sixel]

Anything over $7MM or so is too much for this version of Morneau, imo. But, I'm not sure what good not signing him does......as pointed out above, they'll just likely pocket the savings, not reinvest them in the roster. Also as pointed out above, there is not an obvious 1B alternative in the minors for the next 2 years, unless you think Parmalee is that guy.

 

For a team that would actually reinvest the money, I'd say let him hit FA, and offer 2 years, $15MM. For this team, I really have no idea what to recommend......but I see a Cuddeyer/Willingham like move......they let him walk, sign a guy for a lot less, and get same/better production*

 

*note, I doubt the increase in production is as big as that first "trade".....

[Mike Sixel]

Ryan has done it before...though I think we were 6 or 7 games back with 2 months left...

 

He has, and it led to Santana and Hunter leaving (partly), and would continue to communicate to potential FAs that he never plays for the present. I'd think that would be a negative tie breaker type message to send.....

[Cap'n Piranha]

He has, and it led to Santana and Hunter leaving (partly), and would continue to communicate to potential FAs that he never plays for the present. I'd think that would be a negative tie breaker type message to send.....

 

It doesn't make sense to play for the present if you're not going to win in the present. That the Twins are at .500 in the middle of May, and have been largely watchable is a surprising, but welcome development. However, this team is not ready to compete in the postseason, and won't be until the Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Meyer, Gibson wave is established--think 2015 to 2016.

 

Right now, the best use of the Pohlad's money would be to keep payroll down, and sock money away for Longoria or Span like extensions for our wave of top prospects that will all be starting their service time within the next year to year and a half. I agree that if the money is going to go right to the Pohlad's bank account, that's not cool. But, if they're going to save 30 million this year, and 40 million next year, then pull that money out in 2016 to lock up Sano or Buxton (hopefully they'll be in that situation), I'm all for it.

[jokin]

It doesn't make sense to play for the present if you're not going to win in the present. That the Twins are at .500 in the middle of May' date=' and have been largely watchable is a surprising, but welcome development. However, this team is not ready to compete in the postseason, and won't be until the Sano, Buxton, Rosario, Meyer, Gibson wave is established--think 2015 to 2016.

 

Right now, the best use of the Pohlad's money would be to keep payroll down, and sock money away for Longoria or Span like extensions for our wave of top prospects that will all be starting their service time within the next year to year and a half. I agree that if the money is going to go right to the Pohlad's bank account, that's not cool. But, if they're going to save 30 million this year, and 40 million next year, then pull that money out in 2016 to lock up Sano or Buxton (hopefully they'll be in that situation), I'm all for it.[/quote']

 

Except that management has admitted that's not how they operate.

[cmathewson]

If they sign Morneau, they will do it in part for upside. He very nearly endened his career a la Cory Koskie. It's been a long way back from the brink. He's not there yet. Will he ever be? I think it's too early to tell. This past week he's shown signs of staying on the ball and not jumping out at every pitch. That's a start. But he hasn't driven the ball to right or over the fence. If he starts doing that and continues to get his hits otherwise, he'll be worth it. No need to make the decision until at least the All-Star break.

 

If they don't sign him, they should do the Cuddyer thing and sign a capable replacement for his expected production. I don't like our in-house options, at least until Vargas, Harrison, Keplar, or Walker are ready, assuming Sano stays at third.

[Mike Sixel]

And the question was "if they are less than 5 games out of the playoffs at the trade deadline, what would you do", not "it's May, what should they do". Those are two very different questions.

 

I really can't believe that people keep typing that they don't care if the team sucks for 2 more years, that the Pohlad's saving money is more important than trying to put a good team on the field.

 

And how do you know they can't be good in the playoffs, if they make them? And how does saving $6MM (about what they'd own Morneau at the deadline) impact their ability to sign a huge extension in three years? Oh, and the team has said all they do is pocket the money if they make extra one year, they run on a cash basis for payroll (which is bizarre in 2013, but it's their business strategy).

[Oldgoat_MN]

"Vargas, Harrison, Keplar, or Walker" - these names are a long, long way off.

 

If neither Colabello nor Parmelee are ready then we really aren't in a position to push away some guy who is by any definition an excellent first baseman.

You may want Mauer there, but Mauer is still catching and, as fine an athlete as he is, we suffer when someone other than Morneau is playing first.

 

Want to get rid of Morneau? Come up with a plan. I really don't want the Twins pulling a name out of a hat to see who plays 1B today. One day it's Hicks, then Ramirez, then Escobar, then Perkins? No thanks.

[cmathewson]

 

I really can't believe that people keep typing that they don't care if the team sucks for 2 more years, that the Pohlad's saving money is more important than trying to put a good team on the field.

 

Not one person has said that. You can go ahead and torch that straw man. I'm pretty sure we all want the team to win. I for one would love the Twins to spend all the money they have and then some to win. I just don't think it's always feasible to do that. It doesn't make sense to spend money to make the team worse, which is a distinct possibility with some of the available free agents.

[nicksaviking]

I don't get the disgust with the qualifying offer option. It's a no fuss no muss no sweat scenario. If by seasons end Morneau is a better player than Parmelee, where is the harm? Unless the Twins are suddenly going on a free agent binge, it's not like the team will be up against their self imposed salary ceiling.

 

Is it overpaying? Yes. Does it matter? No. It's a one year deal and it's been said a ton, there's no such thing as a bad one year deal.

 

So he gets overpaid, big deal, he fills a large hole and it's not like he's an unknown free agent who is getting this obscene deal, it's Justin Morneau, if you can overpay a guy for one season, it can be a guy who won your team an MVP and may one day have his number retired.

 

Besides, perhaps he doesn't want a one-year deal and turns down the offer banking on Toronto giving him a three-year contract. Then the decision to split is on him and the Twins are awarded a draft pick.

[Oxtung]

If neither Colabello nor Parmelee are ready then we really aren't in a position to push away some guy who is by any definition an excellent first baseman.

 

Morneau hasn't been an average 1st baseman let alone an excellent first baseman since 2010. If a platoon at 1st is going to provide better results I say platoon away!

[70charger]

I don't get the disgust with the qualifying offer option. It's a no fuss no muss no sweat scenario. If by seasons end Morneau is a better player than Parmelee, where is the harm? Unless the Twins are suddenly going on a free agent binge, it's not like the team will be up against their self imposed salary ceiling.

 

This makes a lot of sense. I've mentioned this before, but the Twins are on record as saying they don't think you can overpay in dollars (I assume within reason - e.g., no 1-year $100 million contracts). Where you run into problems is when you overpay in years.

 

Say Morneau gets a qualifying offer, and he ends up being pretty grossly overpaid. He's still not an albatross. At worst, he's a $5-8 million loss in a single year on a $14 million investment. Meh.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I tend to fall into the "there's no such thing as a bad one year contract" camp.

[kab21]

I tend to fall into the "there's no such thing as a bad one year contract" camp.

 

yeah, but 13+M for an average to below average player still seems silly. I would like Morneau back but I'm not sure it will happen. He needs to start hitting halfway decently to be considered a starter next season. He's similar to Doumit tbh at this point and he's signing <5M deals.

[cmathewson]

Morneau hasn't been an average 1st baseman let alone an excellent first baseman since 2010. If a platoon at 1st is going to provide better results I say platoon away!

 

Yeah, his production dropped off a cliff for some reason during the 2010 season. What was it? Oh yeah, a career-threatening concussion. He's just now getting back to his old self health-wise. So there's at least a chance his production will follow.

[Riverbrian]

I thnk Morneau is doing fine. Personally... I'm concerned by the occasional shifts that teams have been deploying on him. The Morneau of old used to go the other way with ease... At least my memory of the Morneau of old was a guy who went the other way.

 

I assume that teams deploying a shift suggests data that he ain't going the other way lately. This may be something Morneau needs to find again.

 

Hes looking decent and I think he will be healthy and decent all year.

 

I think the Twins will make an attempt to sign him. I don't think the trade market will be rich enough to tickle the trade urge and the front office will be loyal to the player and vice versa.

 

 

Just guesses from me... No more no less.

[Mike Sixel]

yeah, but 13+M for an average to below average player still seems silly. I would like Morneau back but I'm not sure it will happen. He needs to start hitting halfway decently to be considered a starter next season. He's similar to Doumit tbh at this point and he's signing <5M deals.

 

I think the point of contention is, if you don't spend the money on Justin, what else will the money be spent on? If nothing, then he's a better option than parmalee, apparently, so why not just sign him?

[Ultima Ratio]

Leave Morneau at 1B, Arcia in RF, send Hicks down, and move Parm to CF (as best OF defensively left/so far).

 

Solved.

 

(baby snark)

 

 

Serious note: leave the monetary considerations out of this problem.... because it is not and won't be a problem. Just deal with production.

 

It's really too bad that none of Plouffe, Parm or Doumit are offensive threats so far this year -- giving Morneau little protection. Wonder how much better he'd be in front of Hammer.

[jokin]

Leave Morneau at 1B, Arcia in RF, send Hicks down, and move Parm to CF (as best OF defensively left/so far).

 

Solved.

 

(baby snark)

 

 

Serious note: leave the monetary considerations out of this problem.... because it is not and won't be a problem. Just deal with production.

 

It's really too bad that none of Plouffe, Parm or Doumit are offensive threats so far this year -- giving Morneau little protection. Wonder how much better he'd be in front of Hammer.

 

Move Arcia (or the hottest bat) behind Morneau, should help alleviate the protection problem. The #4 and #5 spots in the order have been awful for the Twins. #'s 6, 7 and 9 batting positions for the Twins are among league best. I hope Gardy consults his "Cybermetric Master" on this topic and see what he "spits out."

 

To be fair, Plouffe's current OPS is .737 and it's zoomed up to .833 in May. The MLB average for OPS for 3B is only .724. He's the perfect hot-streak/cold-streak type of hitter that is a candidate for bouncing around in the batting order dependent on how he's currently swinging.

[robbie111]

Morneau's been really good at home this year .350 ave .400 obp .533 slugging and .933 ops. and both homers and 5 of his doubles have come at Target Field. Little worried about his road games this year although really happy with his last 7 games where hes batting over .400. Hope he continues to heat up.

[Brad Swanson]

Ideally, Morneau gets something going and the Twins can get a deal like the Beltran deal a couple of years back, but right now nobody's going to want him for much. Not even sure who they would trade him to since most playoff contenders have a good 1B. The A's?

 

Unless Morneau magically becomes 3 young pitchers, I'd say the A's are out.

[Oxtung]

Leave Morneau at 1B, Arcia in RF, send Hicks down, and move Parm to CF (as best OF defensively left/so far).

 

Solved.

 

(baby snark)

 

 

Serious note: leave the monetary considerations out of this problem.... because it is not and won't be a problem. Just deal with production.

 

It's really too bad that none of Plouffe, Parm or Doumit are offensive threats so far this year -- giving Morneau little protection. Wonder how much better he'd be in front of Hammer.[/QUote]

 

Interesting take since Plouffe has a higher OPS than Morneau....

 

By your logic imagine how much better Plouffe would be with the Hammer hitting behind him.

 

I dont get the Plouffe hate on this board. He is not an all star but he isn't terrible either.