JD Martinez

[Parfigliano]

Rumor round the campfire is Dodgers 1 yr/$10 mil

[tony&rodney]

Not a rumor any more.

[CRF]

Yep, LA got him. 

[Rosterman]

Seemed like the perfect guy for the Twins to get. Right-handed needed bat. Plus, he was a draftee they never signed.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Seemed like the perfect guy for the Twins to get. Right-handed needed bat. Plus, he was a draftee they never signed.

Is he perfect for the Twins simply because he's right handed? He's a DH only. Based on his last 4 seasons of steady decline he's likely about 5% better than league average with the bat in 2023 and will barely crack double digit homeruns. Is that a guy you're willing to hand the DH spot to everyday? Otherwise you're talking about a $10 million bench bat.

[USAFChief]

54 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Is he perfect for the Twins simply because he's right handed? He's a DH only. Based on his last 4 seasons of steady decline he's likely about 5% better than league average with the bat in 2023 and will barely crack double digit homeruns. Is that a guy you're willing to hand the DH spot to everyday? Otherwise you're talking about a $10 million bench bat.

Better to set $11m on fire in the form of Joey Gallo, and watch 200 plus K's to go with 90 hits.

[chpettit19]

5 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Better to set $11m on fire in the form of Joey Gallo, and watch 200 plus K's to go with 90 hits.

As you well know, I wouldn't have signed Gallo for that deal either. But at least he plays defense.

Friendly wager on who has the higher WAR total in 2023? I'll take Gallo, you can have JD. Combine total f and bWAR. You can pick the stakes.

[Twodogs]

56 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Is he perfect for the Twins simply because he's right handed? He's a DH only. Based on his last 4 seasons of steady decline he's likely about 5% better than league average with the bat in 2023 and will barely crack double digit homeruns. Is that a guy you're willing to hand the DH spot to everyday? Otherwise you're talking about a $10 million bench bat.

Well the Dodgers wanted JD more than they wanted Gallo?  That should probably tell us something right there, I mean Gallo was with the Dodgers.  I guess the Twins front office is just that much smarter than the Dodgers front office.   But I mean what makes anyone think that Gallo is going to be a good hitter?  He hit .160 with a total of 29 extra base hits last year.  JD hit .274 with 60 extra base hits last year.  JD had a .790 OPS and Gallo had like a 630 OPS.  I mean even if JD regresses slightly each year it's still going to take awhile before he is as bad as Gallo.  Plus he is right handed which is what the Twins need at this point in time.  I mean could we imagine if Gallo regresses even more?  I mean dang, I am a Twins fan through and through and I hope and pray Gallo can hit his weight and 30 bombs, but I just don't see it.  I know JD is going to slowly regress from here on out, but dang if Gallo doesn't remind me of a left handed hitting Sano right now.  Should have just kept Sano.  Not to mention Gallo was hitting for the Yankees and the Dodgers last year.  Loaded lineups where he wouldn't have been the focus of the pitching staffs.  Should have seen plenty of fastballs with The likes of Judge or Betts hitting around you.  Gallo scares me.

[USAFChief]

4 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

As you well know, I wouldn't have signed Gallo for that deal either. But at least he plays defense.

Friendly wager on who has the higher WAR total in 2023? I'll take Gallo, you can have JD. Combine total f and bWAR. You can pick the stakes.

WAR is ****.

 

[chpettit19]

Just now, USAFChief said:

WAR is ****.

 

Then pick some way to decide which player was better overall. Unless you feel defense doesn't matter at all and the only way to determine who a good player is is by their batting average. FYI, literally every major league team has a form of WAR they use. So perhaps it's not complete ****.

[DJL44]

2 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

WAR is ****.

It's a useful construct but in this case it has a huge flaw, namely that the Twins have 4 other lefthanded hitting oufielders who are about average in WAR. How many wins above Trevor Larnach will Gallo produce in 2023? I'm guessing zero since Larnach has a good chance of being the better player. Spend $11M and pick up a player who is no better than 4 other guys they already have. That's only worth anything if they trade their surplus of lefthanded hitting outfielders for something they actually need.

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Twodogs said:

Well the Dodgers wanted JD more than they wanted Gallo?  That should probably tell us something right there, I mean Gallo was with the Dodgers.  I guess the Twins front office is just that much smarter than the Dodgers front office.   But I mean what makes anyone think that Gallo is going to be a good hitter?  He hit .160 with a total of 29 extra base hits last year.  JD hit .274 with 60 extra base hits last year.  JD had a .790 OPS and Gallo had like a 630 OPS.  I mean even if JD regresses slightly each year it's still going to take awhile before he is as bad as Gallo.  Plus he is right handed which is what the Twins need at this point in time.  I mean could we imagine if Gallo regresses even more?  I mean dang, I am a Twins fan through and through and I hope and pray Gallo can hit his weight and 30 bombs, but I just don't see it.  I know JD is going to slowly regress from here on out, but dang if Gallo doesn't remind me of a left handed hitting Sano right now.  Should have just kept Sano.  Not to mention Gallo was hitting for the Yankees and the Dodgers last year.  Loaded lineups where he wouldn't have been the focus of the pitching staffs.  Should have seen plenty of fastballs with The likes of Judge or Betts hitting around you.  Gallo scares me.

I'm not going to write out all the stats again because I just did that in another thread, but here's a summary:

JD is a DH only. He's averaged 2.5 WAR per year over his career. Gallo is an elite defender who has also averaged 2.5 WAR per year over his career. JD has lost 10+ points on his OPS+ and wRC+ each of the last 3 seasons. He was at 117 in OPS+ and 119 in wRC+ last year. If he continues at his current decline he'll be around 105, or 5% better than league average, in 2023. As a DH only. With no power (he's declined by about 10 HRs a year over the same timespan and hit 16 HRs last year, so I'll give him about 10 for 2023). And with no speed. 

Gallo averaged a 117 OPS+ and wRC+ in his time in Texas. That was up until 2021. He was awful in NY and LA. So Gallo averaged the same type of batting performance that JD had last year over his entire time in Texas. He then had a terrible year in NY and LA. The bet is that Gallo is more likely to be able to bounce back at the age of 29 after 1 bad year in high pressure markets than JD is suddenly able to turn around his very steady decline at the age of 36. JD will most likely be a league average-ish hitter with negative defensive value. Gallo could be absolutely horrible with the bat, but still play elite defense, which would make it a wash. Or Gallo could be even league average with his defense and he's instantly more valuable than JD.

I wouldn't have signed Gallo for $11 million. I also wouldn't have signed JD for $10 million. Gallo likely fills Kepler's role since the general feeling is Kepler is getting traded eventually. Gallo has been an above average, and twice significantly above average, hitter in the bigs. The young guys everyone wants to play have never been that. He's a significantly better defender than all the young guys. He has more ways to fill holes in the roster. JD fills the DH hole with a league average hitter. Or a bench bat. Sorry, not interested in that for $10 million. The Dodgers can afford a $10 million bench bat. The Twins can't.

[Linus]

Josh Bell was the guy they should have targeted. 

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

It's a useful construct but in this case it has a huge flaw, namely that the Twins have 4 other lefthanded hitting oufielders who are about average in WAR. How many wins above Trevor Larnach will Gallo produce in 2023? I'm guessing zero since Larnach has a good chance of being the better player. Spend $11M and pick up a player who is no better than 4 other guys they already have. That's only worth anything if they trade their surplus of lefthanded hitting outfielders for something they actually need.

Why does Larnach have a good chance of being the better player? Gallo has a 4 win season under his belt (along with two 3 win seasons, and a 2.8). He's averaged 2.5 WAR, even with his absolute trash 2022 season. I don't love the signing, and the offseason is still a disaster after wasting 2 months lowballing Correa, but we need to stop acting like we have a ton of talent on the corners and 2.5 WAR seasons are just falling from the sky for the Twins.

Gallo, including his embarrassment of a 2022 season averages 2.5 fWAR and bWAR.

Trevor Larnach has had the chance to prove himself for 1.5 seasons, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy. In those 1.5 seasons he's totaled 1.1 fWAR and 1.8 bWAR.

Kiriloff has had 2 full seasons to prove himself, but hasn't been able to stay healthy. He's accumulated 0.3 bWAR, and -0.6 fWAR.

Nick Gordon has had 1.5 seasons to prove himself. He's accumulated 1.5 fWAR, and 1.7 bWAR.

Wallner is a 25 year old rookie with massive strikeout numbers in the minors, who the league now has tape on and will know how to attack from the jump.

Why are we so certain those 4 guys are going to be better than Joey Gallo? I'm not sure they won't be, but I'm also not willing to say the Twins shouldn't be looking for possible upgrades on that combination of players. Having 4 guys in those spots is very different than having 4 guys who we should expect to be healthy and produce well.
 

 

[ashbury]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

WAR is ****.

I thought the censorbot at this site would let you say hell.

[Twodogs]

44 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I thought the censorbot at this site would let you say hell.

War huh yeah!  What is it good for? Absolutely nothing!  Say it again y'all

 

 

I couldn't resist.  Sorry.  ?

[ashbury]

3 minutes ago, Twodogs said:

War huh yeah!  What is it good for? Absolutely nothing!  Say it again y'all

I couldn't resist.  Sorry.  ?

Obligatory by now.  Now ask Chief an either/or question, or mention something being almost dead.

[Mike Sixel]

People really want this team to take up a roster spot with a full time DH? Where do you expect Arraez and Buxton to play all the time? They are both getting time at DH, especially if AK is finally healthy. I don't understand the angst over this.

[Twodogs]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Why does Larnach have a good chance of being the better player? Gallo has a 4 win season under his belt (along with two 3 win seasons, and a 2.8). He's averaged 2.5 WAR, even with his absolute trash 2022 season. I don't love the signing, and the offseason is still a disaster after wasting 2 months lowballing Correa, but we need to stop acting like we have a ton of talent on the corners and 2.5 WAR seasons are just falling from the sky for the Twins.

Gallo, including his embarrassment of a 2022 season averages 2.5 fWAR and bWAR.

Trevor Larnach has had the chance to prove himself for 1.5 seasons, but he hasn't been able to stay healthy. In those 1.5 seasons he's totaled 1.1 fWAR and 1.8 bWAR.

Kiriloff has had 2 full seasons to prove himself, but hasn't been able to stay healthy. He's accumulated 0.3 bWAR, and -0.6 fWAR.

Nick Gordon has had 1.5 seasons to prove himself. He's accumulated 1.5 fWAR, and 1.7 bWAR.

Wallner is a 25 year old rookie with massive strikeout numbers in the minors, who the league now has tape on and will know how to attack from the jump.

Why are we so certain those 4 guys are going to be better than Joey Gallo? I'm not sure they won't be, but I'm also not willing to say the Twins shouldn't be looking for possible upgrades on that combination of players. Having 4 guys in those spots is very different than having 4 guys who we should expect to be healthy and produce well.
 

 

I totally agree that the young guys have not done a very good job of proving themselves.  But if everyone is off of the Kepler bandwagon then that means one or more of those unproven players have to replace him.  Now Kepler also had a really bad season last year.  One of his worst, but going by WAR Kep has produced more war over the same career length.  He also has 304 extra base hits as compared to Joey's 275.  Kepler is being paid like 8 million and Gallo 11??  So I'm assuming that everyone is assuming that Gallo is here to replace Kepler, but to me it looks like Kepler is better, not considerably better but better than Gallo at a lower price?  So if the twins go with an OF of Kepler, Gallo, and Buck with Nick Gordon and Larnach as depth then the Gallo signing looks ok, a little more power and better fielding overall.  But if the Twins cut bait with the less expensive Kepler then it doesn't make sense to me.  Plus all of the left handedness is pretty crazy too. 

 

On another subject, I think had the Twins brought back Correa and then signed Rodon and then brought in Gallo I don't think anyone would be that crazy about all of this.  But since this is like the biggest signing so far I think it blows this out of proportion a little bit.  

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Why does Larnach have a good chance of being the better player?

Larnach was better last year (104 OPS+ vs 79 OPS+) and is aging into his prime so there is some upside. Gallo is past his prime and unlikely to improve on his career numbers. If you're going to predict future performance, you should heavily weight the previous season's performance. Larnach is not a bad fielder so Gallo doesn't make up much there either, not that LF get that many chances anyway. Of course, Larnach isn't the only option. Gallo has to be better than most of the other outfield options to be worth signing. If he's the 3rd most productive corner OF for the Twins what is the point? This team can't afford to spend $11M on a 4th outfielder when they don't have enough pitching.

[USAFChief]

21 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

People really want this team to take up a roster spot with a full time DH? Where do you expect Arraez and Buxton to play all the time? They are both getting time at DH, especially if AK is finally healthy. I don't understand the angst over this.

I want Buxton in CF, and Arraez at 1b or 2b or 3b. 

There's 400 PAs for  good hitter at DH easy. You don't make the Twins better by sticking Gilbert Celestino in CF and Buxton at DH.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, USAFChief said:

I want Buxton in CF, and Arraez at 1b or 2b or 3b. 

There's 400 PAs for  good hitter at DH easy. 

We can want Buxton in center every game, but we know that isn't happening. We also know Arraez will get time at DH. Probably Larnach and AK. Sometimes Miranda. It's not like we're talking about a great hitter either. He's nice. A decent hitter at this point. 

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Larnach was better last year (104 OPS+ vs 79 OPS+) and is aging into his prime so there is some upside. Gallo is past his prime and unlikely to improve on his career numbers. If you're going to predict future performance, you should heavily weight the previous season's performance. Larnach is not a bad fielder so Gallo doesn't make up much there either, not that LF get that many chances anyway. Of course, Larnach isn't the only option. Gallo has to be better than most of the other outfield options to be worth signing. If he's the 3rd most productive corner OF for the Twins what is the point? This team can't afford to spend $11M on a 4th outfielder when they don't have enough pitching.

Larnach played 51 games last year. That's where I heavily weigh his performance. He's had 2 straight years where a major league job was handed to him at some point in the season and he's cratered and ended the year on the IL both times. Why should I expect him to sustain that 104 OPS+ for an entire season? I'm no longer willing to bet either Larnach or Kirilloff can stay healthy. (And I hate writing that because I've been big fans of both of them for a long time) Going into 2023 expecting any of Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, or Gordon to suddenly be healthy, and productive for an entire season would not be a move dedicated to winning in 2023. And if they're not trying to win in 2023 they should be trading Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Kepler, and not signing Gallo or trading for Farmer.

I know "we need pitching" is a common chant around here, but they need offense just as much, if not more, than they need pitching. They have 3 guys on the current roster who deserve unquestioned spots in the top 6 of a playoff caliber lineup. Buxton, Arraez, and Polanco are the only 3 guys they have that have any sort of sustained success to point to and say they deserve an unquestioned spot in a good lineup. They need all the hitting they can get.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

Larnach played 51 games last year. That's where I heavily weigh his performance. He's had 2 straight years where a major league job was handed to him at some point in the season and he's cratered and ended the year on the IL both times. Why should I expect him to sustain that 104 OPS+ for an entire season? I'm no longer willing to bet either Larnach or Kirilloff can stay healthy. (And I hate writing that because I've been big fans of both of them for a long time) Going into 2023 expecting any of Larnach, Kirilloff, Wallner, or Gordon to suddenly be healthy, and productive for an entire season would not be a move dedicated to winning in 2023. And if they're not trying to win in 2023 they should be trading Mahle, Gray, Maeda, Kepler, and not signing Gallo or trading for Farmer.

I know "we need pitching" is a common chant around here, but they need offense just as much, if not more, than they need pitching. They have 3 guys on the current roster who deserve unquestioned spots in the top 6 of a playoff caliber lineup. Buxton, Arraez, and Polanco are the only 3 guys they have that have any sort of sustained success to point to and say they deserve an unquestioned spot in a good lineup. They need all the hitting they can get.

Why wouldn't you expect Gordon to be productive? Why wouldn't you expect Wallner to be healthy? 

I get the skepticism on the other two. Which is why I get the signing to some degree.

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, Twodogs said:

I totally agree that the young guys have not done a very good job of proving themselves.  But if everyone is off of the Kepler bandwagon then that means one or more of those unproven players have to replace him.  Now Kepler also had a really bad season last year.  One of his worst, but going by WAR Kep has produced more war over the same career length.  He also has 304 extra base hits as compared to Joey's 275.  Kepler is being paid like 8 million and Gallo 11??  So I'm assuming that everyone is assuming that Gallo is here to replace Kepler, but to me it looks like Kepler is better, not considerably better but better than Gallo at a lower price?  So if the twins go with an OF of Kepler, Gallo, and Buck with Nick Gordon and Larnach as depth then the Gallo signing looks ok, a little more power and better fielding overall.  But if the Twins cut bait with the less expensive Kepler then it doesn't make sense to me.  Plus all of the left handedness is pretty crazy too. 

 

On another subject, I think had the Twins brought back Correa and then signed Rodon and then brought in Gallo I don't think anyone would be that crazy about all of this.  But since this is like the biggest signing so far I think it blows this out of proportion a little bit.  

I'll start by saying I 100% agree with your last paragraph. TD is well known for overreacting to every individual move that happens during the offseason. I mean there's currently a new article up summarizing minor league moves they've made and even that article is full of angry messages about how those signings are useless.

As for Gallo vs Kepler, I'll start with Kepler having been a full time player for 1 more season than Gallo. If you average out their WARs per season starting when they were full time players you get Kepler at 2.4 bWAR (16.9 WAR over 7 seasons) and 2.3 fWAR (16 WAR over 7 seasons). Gallo is 2.4 bWAR (14.7 WAR over 6 seasons) and 2.5 fWAR (15.1 WAR over 6 seasons). To me they're a wash. Both good defenders with severely flawed bats. Just a matter of being Gallo's K flaw vs Kepler's weak contact flaw. Neither is a good BA guy so even that complaint is a wash to me.

The other part of the equation, assuming Kepler is dealt, is what they get in return for Kepler. I've seen guesses all over the map on TD and elsewhere. If they bring back something useful Gallo+Kepler return could certainly be better than Kepler+2.5 million. I don't love the deal, and am not predicting Gallo jumps back up to a 3 or 4 win guy like he was for 4 of his years in Texas. But it's also not the most illogical, terrible move I've ever seen. I'm simply willing to see what corresponding moves are made before condemning this one.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Why wouldn't you expect Gordon to be productive? Why wouldn't you expect Wallner to be healthy? 

I get the skepticism on the other two. Which is why I get the signing to some degree.

I'm just simply not sold on Gordon yet. He very well may be productive again, but I'm not willing to bet the 2023 season on it. He's the least of my concerns with the 4 "young" lefty outfielders, though. I'm not expecting Wallner to be a health concern, but I have major concerns about his production. Thus not both healthy and productive. I'm simply saying that we need both health and production for these guys, and Gordon's scorching hot 3 months of production is the best argument any of them have. That's not overly encouraging to me.

[Mike Sixel]

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm just simply not sold on Gordon yet. He very well may be productive again, but I'm not willing to bet the 2023 season on it. He's the least of my concerns with the 4 "young" lefty outfielders, though. I'm not expecting Wallner to be a health concern, but I have major concerns about his production. Thus not both healthy and productive. I'm simply saying that we need both health and production for these guys, and Gordon's scorching hot 3 months of production is the best argument any of them have. That's not overly encouraging to me.

Fair 

[DJL44]

I'll put it another way. If we don't believe Larnach can play as well as he did last season then they missed their opportunity and should have traded him 3 years ago. I think he's going to be better than he was last season.

Joey Gallo can't make the team much better than they were last year. They spent resources on a minor upgrade while leaving gaping holes elsewhere. Now they pretty much have to trade one of Kepler, Larnach or Kirilloff or they will have wasted one of their seasons of team control.