Draft Developments

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Much has been made over the last 12 months about Stanford P Mark Appel and his "advisor" Scott Boras. Many believe that Boras is the reason that Appel passed on signing with the Pirates... and why wouldn't they? Appel has helped his stock and stands to make more money this year. Who looks like a genius? Well, unfortunately, Scott Boras does.

 

You think amateurs notice? Absolutely. But let's not jump to the conclusion that the Twins are completely anti-Boras. They aren't. Both Mike Pelfrey and Alex Meyer, who were acquired this off-season, are Boras clients. The Twins, however, haven't taken a Boras client with a first round pick ever (as far as I can tell). At it's best, the Twins Draft/Boras connection can be called a rarity.

 

So what's the point? Well, TwinsDaily learned earlier today a partial list of 2013 potential draftees that are being advised by Scott Boras. They are:

 

Mark Appel

Kris Bryant

Sean Manaea

Austin Meadows

Colin Moran

 

Ouch. Jonathan Gray is not on that list and definitely has a different advisor. Kohl Stewart's advisor, on the other hand, is unknown, but he has been linked to Boras previously.

 

While I'm not going to shake-up my Draft Board solely because of this development, it is enough to create conversation. Given that so many Top 8 prospects are represented by Boras, my personal opinion is that the Twins can't avoid him... as much as they probably want to.

[Brandon]

The last time the Twins drafted a Scott Boras client in the first round Scott Boras found a loophole and had the draft pick declared a free agent. Travis Lee 1B. Luckily for the Twins he was mediocre at best and saved the Twins money by not signing him.

[drivlikejehu]

I think it's a non-issue for the most part. Appel had more leverage than most college draftees, and the Pirates weren't prepared for him to fall and basically played a game of chicken with Boras. It's hard to see how a scenario like that could unfold for the Twins this year.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

The last time the Twins drafted a Scott Boras client in the first round Scott Boras found a loophole and had the draft pick declared a free agent. Travis Lee 1B. Luckily for the Twins he was mediocre at best and saved the Twins money by not signing him.

 

Yes, I thought it was Boras who represented Lee, but couldn't verify it... see it now.

 

Also of note, one of Boras's first clients, Tim Belcher, turned down the Twins offer of $100,000 because he was holding out for... wait for it... $150,000.

[John Bonnes]

Yes, I thought it was Boras who represented Lee, but couldn't verify it... see it now.

 

Actually, it wasn't. It was Jeff Moorad. I've screwed that up in the past too.

[TKGuy]

The Twins have spent big $$$ on draft and international players, don't think Boras would scare them off

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Actually, it wasn't. It was Jeff Moorad. I've screwed that up in the past too.

 

I saw his name. I saw Boras's too. I wonder if they were both involved with the same company.

 

"Several Scott Boras Corp clients were prominent in the 1996 draft. Boras found a loophole that granted free agency to four top first-round picks: Matt White, Travis Lee, John Patterson, and Bobby Seay. He was able to get White a $10.1 million deal from the Tampa Bay Devil Rays; White has never reached the major leagues, however. Seay, who signed with the Devil Rays for $3 million, was a reliever with the Tampa Bay for four seasons and is now with the Colorado Rockies. Lee, a star with Team USA in the 1996 Summer Olympics, has been a solid backup for several teams, while Patterson is now a middle-of-the-rotation starter for the Washington Nationals."

 

Scott Boras of Scott Boras Corp - Certified MLB Agent

[maxisagod]

Thanks Jeremy. The light bulb just turned on in my head. Keith Law had a comment in a chat recently that didn't make sense to me until now. He said people think the Astros are going to cut a deal with Gray. But why cut a deal with a guy who's convence he's going #2 overall? You'd only save (at most) the midpoint difference between pick 1 and 2. Why not hand out 3rd or 4th pick money to a guy who thinks he's going to drop to 6th (like Correa)?

 

Because all the other guys are represented by the same guy and he's not going to cut you a deal for one of his other players because in the end he'd lose commission dollars. The only other guy the Astros are looking at is Frazier and that may be too big of a reach, rumors are he could fall to 9.

So now I'm convence Astros get Gray and Cubs go Appel. If the Twins and Rockies don't want to pay slot or higher... they may have to reach.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

If the Twins and Rockies don't want to pay slot or higher... they may have to reach.

 

Could you imagine a half-dozen guys all taking Appel-like tumbles in the draft? How crazy would that be... I hope it doesn't happen. Actually, I kind of hope it does.

 

I'm really hoping Stewart isn't a Boras guy... and if he isn't, he's the guy I like most at #4 now.

[maxisagod]

Could you imagine a half-dozen guys all taking Appel-like tumbles in the draft? How crazy would that be... I hope it doesn't happen. Actually, I kind of hope it does.

 

I'm really hoping Stewart isn't a Boras guy... and if he isn't, he's the guy I like most at #4 now.

Wow. Exactly. If the Twins like Manaea but don't think he's worth full slot, they may pass. Suddenly that odd prediction about Manaea going 3 or 5, but not 4 makes sense (the logic not it's accuracy) If Bryant goes 3... Manaea goes five... Meadows could free fall!

[drivlikejehu]

The penalties are too harsh for going over slot - particularly the loss of future picks. There is no way Boras can engineer huge over-slot payments anymore. The slot amounts fall off too quickly at the top of the draft.

 

The overriding factor now is when a player is drafted. Going #4 is better than #5, period. If anything, Boras is going to have to be more of a lobbyist on behalf of the players he advises. I cannot fathom why or how he could cause trouble for the Twins.

[johnnydakota]

Personally id Appel fell to us at #4 , id have a contract ready and tell him every 5 minutes were dropping 100grand off the bonus ,take it or leave it ,then next year we would have the #5 and another top 10 pick and maybe if justin turns things around a suplimental pick as well

[Jeremy Nygaard]

On InsideTwins this morning with Phil Mackey, Rob Antony was asked directly about Boras's representation of so many draft prospects. Antony's response...

 

"We're not afraid of Scott."

 

There's a difference between fear and avoidance, though... and we'll see if the Twins fall into the latter category in about a month.

[Badsmerf]

The MLB draft is starting to get much more interesting.... for a lot of reasons. It is pretty clear in the research Oxtung and I did earlier that elite players come from the first round. Even though these guys don't have instant impacts, it is still fun.

[Seth Stohs]

Kenny Rogers, Mike Pelfrey, Jeff Manship, Alex Meyer, Carlos Gomez... the Twins aren't going to completely avoid Boras.

[DaveW]

No reason to be scared away from a Boras client, the Teams PR machines make him out to be a monster, when in reality he is just really really really good at what he does and the majority of his clients love him.

[cmb0252]

There were 31 first round picks last year and out of those 15 signed under slot, 10 signed for slot, 5 signed for over slot, and 1 didn't sign. 3 of the over slots were high schoolers who people knew would be tough signings (Almora, Giolito, Seager). One was Gausman who after being drafted by the O's "changed his mind about staying in college" till the O's played him over slot (agent wasnt Boras). Then there was Marrero who....no idea why he got over slot actually.

 

I'm less concerned about having to pay a player over slot than losing valuable development time because of long negotiations. Buxton might make it to high A this year only because he was able to get in at bats after the draft.

[nicksaviking]

Good thing there is now an early signing deadline. Just think if Boras had something like 8 of the top 12 picks. None of them will sign until the deadline, because how is Boras going to argue that the number ten pick deserves to get paid more than the number six guy (his usual stratagy) when he is puppet master for both? Boras will now surely make sure they sign from the top down delaying all his signings.

 

The Cubs set the market for the lower tier free agent pitchers this off-season and set the value high. They are in prime position to do it again by blowing their budget on Appel and screwing every other team picking hence by letting Boras set the signing expectations above where every other club feels comfortable.

[Mike Sixel]

I doubt this is an issue for the Twins.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Alex Meyer, Boras client, signed at the deadline under the old system and didn't debut until the following season. It's not that I think Boras should scare the Twins, per se. I do however think the Twins and all other teams need to be careful when it comes to Boras. His clients will tie up teams' draft pool until the deadline and limit their flexibility. The Twins are in a better position than most, simply because they can narrow their pool down to essentially two guys and should know exactly what they're getting into, unlike the Pirates last year.

[kab21]

Alex Meyer, Boras client, signed at the deadline under the old system and didn't debut until the following season. It's not that I think Boras should scare the Twins, per se. I do however think the Twins and all other teams need to be careful when it comes to Boras. His clients will tie up teams' draft pool until the deadline and limit their flexibility. The Twins are in a better position than most, simply because they can narrow their pool down to essentially two guys and should know exactly what they're getting into, unlike the Pirates last year.

 

That was not a Boras tactic but rather the old CBA. At pick #4 the Twins should be safe offering slot money to any pick aside from Appel surprisingly falling. The twins won't be held hostage and should be able to sign their other picks. I think everyone is overrating Boras' effect on this draft. The penalties are too severe to go overslot.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Alex Meyer getting the $2 million that he turned down out of high school was a Boras tactic, but you're right, the old CBA was a mess.

 

And, yes, the penalties are too severe for teams to go overslot, but that didn't stop Boras from telling the Pirates if they weren't willing to forfeit their first-round pick in 2013 that he was going back to school.

 

Albert Almora, another Boras guy, had a pick value of $3,250,00 and signed on the deadline for $3,900,00 which caused the Cubs to go over slot by $280,350 ($4.7%).

 

Scott Boras did what no one else was willing to do. He's not happy about it and I think he will have a significant effect on this draft from Pick #1 until July 15th. I bet Boras views the #4 pick ($4,544,400) as $4,957,620 (which is slot plus the extra 5%).

 

I also hope I'm wrong. Can't wait to find out.

[nicksaviking]

Boras whines about the new system every chance he gets. I have no doubt he will do everything he can to throw it out of whack and try to show it is ineffective.

[cmathewson]

Appel was the consensus best arm in the draft last year and he fell to #8 because of Boras. He doesn't have as much leverage this year. But neither did JD Drew, who elected to play independent ball and enter the draft a year later (a dumb move, imho). The presence of Boras might push Appel into the Twins laps. If so, should they take the chance? Personally, it would be tough for me to pass on him.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Appel was the consensus best arm in the draft last year and he fell to #8 because of Boras. He doesn't have as much leverage this year. But neither did JD Drew, who elected to play independent ball and enter the draft a year later (a dumb move, imho). The presence of Boras might push Appel into the Twins laps. If so, should they take the chance? Personally, it would be tough for me to pass on him.

 

I wouldn't pass on him, but it's not Appel that concerns me. He'll go top 2.

 

My concerns are the best two college bats and arguably the best prep hitter and arguably the next best college pitcher. Boras is going to line them up and say they should have went (and need to be paid like) 3, 4, 5 and 6.

 

Boras's major involvement adds a lot of intrigue (for me anyway), though I could be way off base. Appel, though, is going to be a Cub and Boras and Epstein will get something done. All of those other guys have the leverage that Boras convinced Appel he had last year.

[gunnarthor]

I think we're all over thinking this. Appel was one of very few people to not sign. Whomever the Twins take will sign for roughly slot. It might get ansty and scary but they'll sign. Appel is the exception, not the rule. Even for Boras.

[cmb0252]

I think we're all over thinking this. Appel was one of very few people to not sign. Whomever the Twins take will sign for roughly slot. It might get ansty and scary but they'll sign. Appel is the exception, not the rule. Even for Boras.

 

As noted above the worry isn't if they will sign but when they sign. If Boras holds out till the very end the prospects will lose valuable development time, especially if they are high school players. Also, it will make it harder to sign any other over slot guys that they grab later in the draft.

 

Hopefully the scouts/front office do their job and figure out asking demands so if they have to go over they can do it quick.

 

P.S. I added this thread to the one stop shop thread so it is easier to find in the future.

[Thrylos]

As noted above the worry isn't if they will sign but when they sign. If Boras holds out till the very end the prospects will lose valuable development time, especially if they are high school players. Also, it will make it harder to sign any other over slot guys that they grab later in the draft.

 

With the changes in the draft and the requirement for signing within a month, this is no issue. Plus lots of the newly signed high school players usually stay for instructs in the fall.

[kab21]

Alex Meyer getting the $2 million that he turned down out of high school was a Boras tactic, but you're right, the old CBA was a mess.

 

And, yes, the penalties are too severe for teams to go overslot, but that didn't stop Boras from telling the Pirates if they weren't willing to forfeit their first-round pick in 2013 that he was going back to school.

 

Albert Almora, another Boras guy, had a pick value of $3,250,00 and signed on the deadline for $3,900,00 which caused the Cubs to go over slot by $280,350 ($4.7%).

 

Scott Boras did what no one else was willing to do. He's not happy about it and I think he will have a significant effect on this draft from Pick #1 until July 15th. I bet Boras views the #4 pick ($4,544,400) as $4,957,620 (which is slot plus the extra 5%).

 

I also hope I'm wrong. Can't wait to find out.

 

I actually don't think the penalties are too severe. They need to be severe otherwise Boras would control the draft like you say. Now he's limited to holding teams hostage for an extra 5% max. that wouldn't alter my draft strategy.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

According to Kiley McDaniel, Austin Meadows is NOT represented by Boras. He also truly believes the Twins prefer Frazier to Meadows and that the Twins will be taking whoever is available between Frazier and Bryant.

 

I'm not gonna disregard what he says - he gets paid to find stuff like this out - but I'm trying to confirm his reports.