Week in Review: The Bitter End

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins closed out their disappointing 2022 season last week with a series loss in Chicago. The results by this point were meaningless, but there are a few meaningful things we can take away from the team's last hurrah.

Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 10/3 through Weds, 10/5
***
Record Last Week: 1-2 (Overall: 78-84)
Run Differential Last Week: +3 (Overall: +12)
Standing: 3rd Place in AL Central (14.0 GB)

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 160 | CWS 3, MIN 2: Ober, Urshela Not Enough
Game 161 | CWS 8, MIN 3: Sox Lineup Proves Overpowering
Game 162 | MIN 10, CWS 1: Twins Finish on a High Note

NEWS & NOTES

The MLB season doesn't typically conclude in the middle of the week, but as a byproduct of last offseason's lockout and delayed spring training, this three-game series between the Twins and White Sox – originally scheduled to open the season – was tacked onto the end of the schedule.

Back when the change was first made, fans were sizing up the possibility of a decisive final showdown in the AL Central. As it turns out, Cleveland ran away with the division, rendering this add-on series in Chicago as little more than a begrudging formality.

Many key Twins players did not make it back in time to close out the season. Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco, Trevor Larnach, Tyler Mahle and Max Kepler were all among the sidelined players once expected to return who never did. Sonny Gray joined them on the injured list in mid-September with a hamstring strain and Trevor Megill went down with an oblique strain after unleashing a wild pitch in warmups – which nearly hurt one the only injured player who DID make it back, Ryan Jeffers.

Even José Miranda, a relative iron man in this group rounding out a very impressive rookie season, got bitten by the bug on Tuesday as a pitch – amazingly – ricocheted off his wrist and directly into his face for one of the most painful-looking HBPs of the year. While not deemed serious, he came out of the game and didn't play in the season finale on Wednesday.

Fittingly, the injuries just kept on coming right up until the bitter end for these Minnesota Twins.

HIGHLIGHTS

Hilariously, the Twins fielded a lineup with no Miranda, no Carlos Correa, and none of the injured players mentioned above in Wednesday's season finale ... and managed to put up double-digit runs for the first time in six weeks. 

Minnesota did have one remaining cornerstone in their lineup: Luis Arraez, batting leadoff at DH while fighting through an obviously nagging hamstring, all in the name of actively locking down his first batting title. He did just that, finishing 1-for-1 with two walks to secure the honor.

It helped his cause that Aaron Judge, with whom Arraez was competing for the batting crown, slowed down in the final weeks as he pressed (successfully) for the AL home run record and then rested. Judge batted .216 from September 22nd onward, while Arraez batted .364 over the same span, giving himself a solid margin of victory with a final .316 mark. (It was still the lowest average to earn an AL batting title in more than 50 years, which says a lot about where the game is at.)

A few other positives to extract from the final series in Chicago, which – reflective of the Twins season as a whole – ended with a positive run differential and losing record:

• Gio Urshela finished the season strong and ended it with an exclamation point. The veteran infielder slashed .333/.404/.425 after the start of September, including .463/.500/.585 in his last 11 games with a 4-for-10 effort and 2 RBIs in the final series. Dick Bremer opined during one of last week's broadcasts that Urshela would be his choice for team MVP, and while I personally wouldn't go that far, he's undoubtedly been one of the team's steadiest players, and has earned an arbitration tender for that reason.
• Bailey Ober didn't quite dominate the White Sox to the same degree he did a week prior at Target Field, but he closed out his truncated season in style on Monday with five innings of two-run ball. Ober struck out four and walked one while allowing just two hits to finalize these 2022 numbers: 11 GS, 56 IP, 3.21 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 1.05 WHIP, 8.2 K/9, 1.8 BB/9. Perhaps most notably, he allowed only four home runs (0.6 HR/9), correcting the biggest flaw in his game as a rookie when he allowed 1.9 HR/9. A tremendous sophomore campaign in almost every regard, with the glaring exception of two-thirds being wiped out by his groin injury.
• Ober has entrenched himself as a homegrown mainstay in the future rotation plans, and Louie Varland is looking to do the same. He too closed out strong, starting the season finale and tossing five shutout innings with five strikeouts and no walks. Varland, who was named Twins minor league pitcher of the year for a second straight season, made five starts during his September audition in the big leagues, and looked eminently capable. In 26 innings he posted a 3.81 ERA and 21-to-6 K/BB ratio, completing at least five frames each time out.

LOWLIGHTS

While Ober and Varland finished on high notes, the same cannot be said for Josh Winder, who unfortunately has probably removed himself from a firm place in the team's rotation planning with a tumultuous season, and a final start that was emblematic. 

Winder was wildly ineffective against a watered-down White Sox lineup on Tuesday, lasting only 2 ⅓ innings before being lifted. He was charged with four earned runs on five hits and a walk, raising his ERA to 4.70. 

It was a familiar story for Winder: the velocity was there, but his fastball was nonetheless quite hittable (hitters batted .351 and slugged .713 against it this year), and the secondary stuff inconsistent. His control was amiss, with only 38 of 69 pitches finding the strike zone.

Turning 26 in a couple of days, Winder has plenty of time to get back on track, but there's a long way to go in regaining the confidence he'd earned by the start of this 2022 season, when the Twins surprisingly snuck him onto their Opening Day roster.

Also failing to gain confidence in this final stretch was Minnesota's makeshift outfield. It's tough to be without your full complement of starters – Buxton, Kepler, Alex Kirilloff – and even a bunch of key depth pieces in Larnach, Kyle Garlick, and Royce Lewis. Still, that doesn't fully excuse how woefully inadequate the replacement crew was.

Gilberto Celestino, Jake Cave and Mark Contreras combined to go 2-for-29 in Chicago, contributing to an offense that could get nothing going in the first two games. 

The 27-year-old Contreras struggled overall in his major-league debut, slashing just .121/.148/.293 with a ghastly 21-to-1 K/BB ratio in 28 games, but he popped a few homers and showed some defensible chops. The presence of Contreras will probably (hopefully) be enough to push Cave – suddenly about to be 30 and arbitration-eligible – out of the picture going forward.

Celestino, on the other hand, projects as more of an important part of the team's planning. His first full MLB season was a major improvement on a brutal 2021 debut, but the outfielder still rated out as merely replacement level. His offensive game was uninspiring and often punchless. His glove and legs showed promise, but Celestino managed to offset many of his positives with mental gaffes and baffling miscues.

It's unfortunate that Celestino's development was so disturbed by the necessities of an injury-raved big-league club over the past two years. He needed more time to refine his hitting in the high minors, and the Twins could not afford to give it to him. It bears noting that Celly is still only 23, the same age as Lewis and Austin Martin. 

It's understandable that Celestino is lagging behind a bit, given his circumstances. But next year he's gonna need to show that he's catching up.

TRENDING STORYLINE

The offseason lies ahead. It'll be a very intriguing one for the Twins, who have some pivotal decisions in front of them. 

In some senses, this team is raring to go for a comeback in 2023. They'll return most of their core players – hopefully with much better health – and the aforementioned season-ending highlights offer reason for excitement: the reigning batting champ, Ober's continued emergence, and a minor-league pitcher/hitter of the year who debuted in September and look primed for immediate impact

Then again, the Twins will head into the offseason plagued by lingering health concerns around key assets. They face the likelihood of losing one of their most valuable players in Correa, who's set to opt out shortly after the World Series. While they'd have money to spend in that event, the options available to replace him – and to bring much-needed stability to the top of the rotation and bullpen – are quite limited.

Like I said, plenty of intrigue and no shortage of question marks. We'll be covering it all as it happens here at Twins Daily, where the baseball season never ends. If you haven't yet, make sure to sign up as a Caretaker at any tier so you get automatic access to our premium Offseason Handbook content, which kicks off on Monday when we launch our payroll analysis and roster builder tool.

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[rwilfong86]

Hopefully they'll be willing to pay money on better pitching.

[ashbury]

Congrats to Luis!  All those hugs emphasized that his listed 5'10" stature on the roster page might be just a tad generous.

[USAFChief]

"Trevor Megill went down with an oblique strain after unleashing a wild pitch in warmups – which nearly hurt one the only injured player who DID make it back, Ryan Jeffers."

 

Your 2022 Minnesota Twins, ladies and germs.

 

[roger]

Sad end to what could have been.  The next 30+ days should be interesting.
 

 I believe the Twins currently have 52 players on their 40-man roster.  So 12 need to go to get to 40.  Then at least another 7 to get 5 spots for prospects plus spots for 1 top reliever and a catcher.  Gonna be really interesting to see who the last of those 19 cuts are!

[Blyleven2011]

6 hours ago, rwilfong86 said:

Hopefully they'll be willing to pay money on better pitching.

Hopefully the FO will be able to determine what a really good pitcher is ...

[Blyleven2011]

19 minutes ago, roger said:

Sad end to what could have been.  The next 30+ days should be interesting.
 

 I believe the Twins currently have 52 players on their 40-man roster.  So 12 need to go to get to 40.  Then at least another 7 to get 5 spots for prospects plus spots for 1 top reliever and a catcher.  Gonna be really interesting to see who the last of those 19 cuts are!

At least we won the last game of the year and didn't go in as loser ...

You and I know who should be taken off the 40 man roster  , I'm sure  we will see surprises though  ...

I sure hope the FO took the course of how to build a roster with talent  after all the mistakes they have made for the past 2 seasons  ...

I hope they come up with a better plan ...

[mikelink45]

Right now the future does not look that promising,  The idea that this FO can make the right decisions is not that apparent.  Can we just follow the playoffs as long as the Guardians last and put off the anguish until later?

[IndyTwinsFan]

I would hope to also see greater organizational depth (and skill) throughout the system.  While it's clear that injuries were a clear problem this season, what was most telling to me was that it often appeared as though many of "next man up" types were clearly not up to the challenge for any significant stretch of games.

In my mind, that also clearly needs to change rather significantly for the better if we want to take major steps forward in the near future. 

[rwilfong86]

On 10/9/2022 at 6:32 PM, Blyleven2011 said:

Hopefully the FO will be able to determine what a really good pitcher is ...

That opposite of what they typically target?

[mikelink45]

Well they are retaining all their coaches in all their positions - so much for progress. That was a buzzkill announcement.