Byron Buxton and the Trout timeline

[Please]

What's the hurry, the pitching still stinks and the Twins should be trying to get as many cheap years outta Byron while the team is in contention. What's the point of having Buxton up to be on a 90 loss team.

[Joe A. Preusser]

What's the hurry, the pitching still stinks and the Twins should be trying to get as many cheap years outta Byron while the team is in contention. What's the point of having Buxton up to be on a 90 loss team.

 

A potentially valid arguement, but I would say the more major league experience we get these kids the better. You don't get called up to the show and all of the sudden start performing like an All-Star. It takes time and experience at that level to hit your potential. That's one of the reasons I'm so glad Arcia is getting time up in the bigs right now, why I'm not sorry Hicks is struggling, and why I can't wait for Gibson. They will all be better for it come 2015.

[Steven Buhr]

Actually, 81 games was a couple of weeks after the MWL All-Star break. They play 140-game seasons (actually, two 70-game "half-seasons") in the MWL. Trout got promoted to A+ a couple of weeks in to the second half.

 

Likewise, a suggestion to send Buxton to AA for "3+ months" would mean doing so by Memorial Day, since minor league schedules wrap up at the end of August. No way the Twins would or should do that with any player, even Buxton, imo.

[Turd Furgeson]

Putting Buxton in AA for three months this season would be a mistake, no question. He's riding a high right now, that doesn't mean he couldn't be challenged and tested in the league he's currently in. Maybe he's not seeing many breaking balls yet, or off-speed pitches. A mid-season promotion to high A will be just fine for where you'd expect a player of his talent and production. He doesn't need to spend anytime in AA this year. He can start the year in AA next year, and if he's still hitting really well he'll get his cup of coffee at the end of the year in 2014, and that should be the absolutely best case scenario.

[Turd Furgeson]

A potentially valid arguement, but I would say the more major league experience we get these kids the better. You don't get called up to the show and all of the sudden start performing like an All-Star. It takes time and experience at that level to hit your potential. That's one of the reasons I'm so glad Arcia is getting time up in the bigs right now, why I'm not sorry Hicks is struggling, and why I can't wait for Gibson. They will all be better for it come 2015.

 

It takes time to refine your hitting skills even for the AA level. Even with a tremendous talent like Buxton, you don't just throw him into the majors and think he'll develop. Players need to be challenged but still be put in a position where they can succeed. Plus, the more time you waste on Buxton developing in the majors, the more service time you waste.

[cmathewson]

Obviously I started writing this a few hours ago and didn't hit refresh, but...

 

I think we mis-remember the Mike Trout time line sometimes...

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3892[/ATTACH]

 

He actually spent 81 games at Cedar Rapids in '10, and ONLY moved to high A for the final 50 games. He did not receive a promotion to AA, and his stats were somewhat pedestrian by CAL standards (his .821 OPS would not have ranked in the top 20).

 

He started the '11 season in AA, and played there for 91 games before making his MLB debut after the All-Star game.

 

This is the most optimistic blueprint for Buxton... so why are we discussing AA? And why are we boarding the promotion train bound for high A before 81 games (which I imagine was the MWL All Star break)?

 

That's the real Trout timeline, which I could see Buxton matching: Half a year in CR, half a year in FM. Half a year in NB, half a year in the majors in 2014. That is still faster than Mauer. So it seems a bit aggressive. Certainly possible. Just not likely.

[ashbury]

Maybe he's not seeing many breaking balls yet, or off-speed pitches.

 

Or, he's seeing them but lays off because they are invariably out of the strike zone. I think this had something to do with Aaron Hicks taking called third strikes earlier this month - "oh? they can DO that?"

[Joe A. Preusser]

It takes time to refine your hitting skills even for the AA level. Even with a tremendous talent like Buxton, you don't just throw him into the majors and think he'll develop. Players need to be challenged but still be put in a position where they can succeed. Plus, the more time you waste on Buxton developing in the majors, the more service time you waste.

 

I didn't say Buxton should be thrown into the majors. Arcia, Hicks, and Gibson are more or less major league ready, so why not let them develop against the high calibur competition they will be facing eventually anyway?

The more I think about it, the less important service time becomes for me.

[ashbury]

The more I think about it, the less important service time becomes for me.

 

It takes an extreme case like Carlos Gomez to make me think it's an issue at all anymore.

 

Plus, a franchise getting a reputation for jerking its young stars around may find it suddenly more difficult to sign the guys they draft.

[Han Joelo]

Just imagine a 16-4 Miracle team adding Buxton and maybe Berrios. Maybe dominating in the minors would translate to the majors.

[cmb0252]

Half year in low A.

Move him to high A after the all star break.

If he dominates high A start him in AA in 2014. If he is over powered or plays just OK ball start him in high A in 2014 with the idea of moving him quickly to AA.

Once he has proven himself in AA give him a September call up.

Start him in AAA in 2015 and once high clock passes the magic day bring him to the bigs.

[Please]

A potentially valid arguement, but I would say the more major league experience we get these kids the better. You don't get called up to the show and all of the sudden start performing like an All-Star. It takes time and experience at that level to hit your potential. That's one of the reasons I'm so glad Arcia is getting time up in the bigs right now, why I'm not sorry Hicks is struggling, and why I can't wait for Gibson. They will all be better for it come 2015.

 

Were also talking about 3 weeks of baseball, 3 WEEKS!!!

 

People wanted Sano in Fort Myers after a few weeks last season and he responded by going into an evil slump.

 

There's no rush on these kids, they'll be up soon enough.

[ThePuck]

Were also talking about 3 weeks of baseball, 3 WEEKS!!!

 

People wanted Sano in Fort Myers after a few weeks last season and he responded by going into an evil slump.

 

There's no rush on these kids, they'll be up soon enough.

 

and how did he finish the season in Beloit?

[Turd Furgeson]

Or, he's seeing them but lays off because they are invariably out of the strike zone. I think this had something to do with Aaron Hicks taking called third strikes earlier this month - "oh? they can DO that?"

 

Perhaps. But the book likely isn't written on him yet. When it is, they will attack his weaknesses relentlessly and we'll have to see how he responds.

[diehardtwinsfan]

What's the hurry, the pitching still stinks and the Twins should be trying to get as many cheap years outta Byron while the team is in contention. What's the point of having Buxton up to be on a 90 loss team.

 

Between Gibson, Meyer, May and 2013 pick #4, the Twins should have some decent cheap front line pitching to go with the 2014/15 wave. Given that Benson is looking more and more like a bust every day (and I really hope this isn't hte case as I like the kid), I could see reason to hurry up Buxton as there'd likely be an open OF spot at one point. That of course assumes he continues to rip the cover off the ball. That could easily change should he actually struggle. The fact he's doing well is great, but he could get promoted and suddely fall of the Trout timeline... Who knows.

[Ncgo4]

Buxton, through three cold rain soaked weeks, looks like a major league ready super star. But he isn't. What I'm not sure about is which side of the mound is favored by the weather. My guess is that the bats have had a huge advantage, that it's harder for the young arms to get acclimated and loosened up in the cold. In a couple more weeks the pitchers will have had time to study and probe him and then we'll see how he holds up at this level in the warmer weather. If he's still at .350 with an on base of .395, move him. If he's down to .310, leave him to get comfortable. If, and miracles do happen, he's still at .400 with an OBP of .500 then it may make sense to give him a some time at high "A" and then up to "AA" to finish the season. He's only 18 and it'll be fun to watch.

[pioneers3]

That's the real Trout timeline, which I could see Buxton matching: Half a year in CR, half a year in FM. Half a year in NB, half a year in the majors in 2014. That is still faster than Mauer. So it seems a bit aggressive. Certainly possible. Just not likely.

 

IF Mauer wasn't a catcher he is in the league a lot quicker, he was learning how to handle a pitching staff as a high school draftee. So I wouldn't apply the Mauer time table to Buxton.

 

Buxton will end year in FM, not AA.

[drjim]

As you all know, I saw Buxton's first three games in Cedar Rapids and came away immensely impressed by him. In fact, at the time, I said I would have put Buxton ahead of Sano in my rankings. Now, I say they'e 1a and 1b.

 

But, to be fair, the Twins need to be patient with Buxton and with anyone on April 25th. Consider the following statline:

 

(26-69) .377/.429/.768 with seven doubles, a triple, six home runs and 15 RBI.

Those were the stats in April of a Twins prospect in Beloit in 2011. He was a year or so older than Buxton. He wasn't a #2 overall pick like Buxton. He doesn't have Buxton's size and speed. So, please don't think I'm putting them in the same prospect category. What I'm trying to show is that April stats are great, but one month is a small sample. I do think it's important to get to face adversity and overcome it at a level too. Buxton isn't going to post a 1.200 OPS every month. If he does through the All-Star break, then absolutely move him up. But don't move him up based on three weeks.

 

The other prospect: Danny Ortiz:

 

At the end of the 2011 season, all spent in Beloit, he hit .239/.294/.391 (.685) with 33-2B, 4-3B, 10-HR.

 

He never posted another 700 OPS month. He started 2012 with a month in Beloit before moving up to Ft. Myers where he played better, and then this year, he's off to a good start in New Britain.

 

But, patience is just smart.

 

Pretty sure this conversation goes beyond merely scouting a stat line.

[gunnarthor]

The Twins have occasionally moved prospects a couple levels - Mauer, Arcia, Garza, Baker, Gibson, Morneau and even Kubel. I think Buxton is more likely to move this year than Sano was last year because he's showing much better plate discipline. If he's still hitting like this in a couple weeks, I think they have to move him up.

[TRex]

Also don't forget that the Twins were a playoff team and had AJ at catcher when Mauer was in AA. You weren't going to promote Mauer to play DH, and you weren't going to move AJ from catcher mid-season.

 

Buxton likely won't have to worry about joining a playoff contender, and outfield is much more malleable than catcher.

[Please]

and how did he finish the season in Beloit?

 

The point is that he struggled bad in the middle months of the season. He righted the ship late in the season, but it's not like he dominated a league all season and was wasting his time at Beloit.

 

 

Between Gibson, Meyer, May and 2013 pick #4, the Twins should have some decent cheap front line pitching to go with the 2014/15 wave. Given that Benson is looking more and more like a bust every day (and I really hope this isn't hte case as I like the kid), I could see reason to hurry up Buxton as there'd likely be an open OF spot at one point. That of course assumes he continues to rip the cover off the ball. That could easily change should he actually struggle. The fact he's doing well is great, but he could get promoted and suddely fall of the Trout timeline... Who knows.

 

And between Gibson, Meyer, May and newest pick (assuming it's a pitcher) Not all those guys are going to be successful MLB pitchers.

 

We can dream on it, but they won't all make it.

[ThePuck]

The point is that he struggled bad in the middle months of the season. He righted the ship late in the season, but it's not like he dominated a league all season and was wasting his time at Beloit.

 

You hit 28HR/100 RBI in 129 games and have an OPS around .900, you've dominated that league

[Otto von Ballpark]

The other prospect: Danny Ortiz:

 

Danny Ortiz was 2 years older than Buxton is now, wasn't stealing bases, wasn't drawing many walks, and I'm not sure about his defense, but he was playing more in RF/LF than CF.

 

Obviously time will tell if Buxton is just having a hot month or is on his way to cementing his status as a top prospect league-wide. Hopefully, given his pedigree and all-around skills, it will be the latter. And if we're going to discuss minor league players around here, there's really no way to do it right now without being excited about Buxton. Most folks aren't advocating instant promotions, however.

[Otto von Ballpark]

You hit 28HR/100 RBI in 129 games and have an OPS around .900, you've dominated that league

 

Sano had a solid year, certainly, but the strikeouts and low average didn't help. (And poor defense.) He was basically a one-trick pony, although that one trick was done pretty well (and is always desperately needed by the big league club!). But you don't want him looking like a power-only prospect in the low minors -- that doesn't translate well to big-league success.

[ThePuck]

Sano had a solid year, certainly, but the strikeouts and low average didn't help. (And poor defense.) He was basically a one-trick pony, although that one trick was done pretty well (and is always desperately needed by the big league club!). But you don't want him looking like a power-only prospect in the low minors -- that doesn't translate well to big-league success.

 

He also got on base at a very decent clip, regardless of BA or Ks.

[jokin]

He's only 18 and it'll be fun to watch.

 

Actually, he's 19. And I'm thinking if he keeps at, or above, the Trout production line, he gets moved up sooner, not later. There is a crying need for depth in CF in the organization or they wouldn't have a 29 year old journeyman starting there in New Britain- or two strikeout Kings and a journeyman sharing CF time in Rochester.

[jokin]

Obviously I started writing this a few hours ago and didn't hit refresh, but...

 

I think we mis-remember the Mike Trout time line sometimes...

 

[ATTACH=CONFIG]3892[/ATTACH]

 

He actually spent 81 games at Cedar Rapids in '10, and ONLY moved to high A for the final 50 games. He did not receive a promotion to AA, and his stats were somewhat pedestrian by CAL standards (his .821 OPS would not have ranked in the top 20).

 

He started the '11 season in AA, and played there for 91 games before making his MLB debut after the All-Star game.

 

This is the most optimistic blueprint for Buxton... so why are we discussing AA? And why are we boarding the promotion train bound for high A before 81 games (which I imagine was the MWL All Star break)?

 

Trout was age 18 for both his years at Cedar Rapids and got moved all the way to Cedar Rapids in his first year at the end of the season. Buxton turned 19 in December. I was wondering out loud that IF he is now on the Trout trajectory, and that IF he maintains a commensurate level of production, why couldn't the Twins be comfortable in moving Buxton along?---- so that, when hit hits age 20 next year, he has his first taste of AA already under his belt, and can build on that in 2014 and be in better position for the call-up, when and if it should happen. Look at Manny Machado, who last year, just turning 20, got the callup to the Orioles in the midst of a pennant race. This happened in the middle of his 3rd year of professional ball, as did Trout, one month shy of his 20th birthday.

 

The main priority for me is having as many of the next wave ready to make a legitimate run in 2015. For me, the best way to get there is to challenge these elite-level prospects early and often with the best appropriate level of competition that will prepare them for the major leagues.

[jokin]

Sano had a solid year, certainly, but the strikeouts and low average didn't help. (And poor defense.) He was basically a one-trick pony, although that one trick was done pretty well (and is always desperately needed by the big league club!). But you don't want him looking like a power-only prospect in the low minors -- that doesn't translate well to big-league success.

 

Baseball America had Sano as the #2 player in the MWL, behind Baez, who was only a part-time MWL player. Sano was 1st in Total Bases, 1st in HRs, 1st in BBs, 1st in RBI, 2nd in OBP and 3rd in SLG among full-time MWL players.

 

Bottom line, Sano dominated the MWL

[TRex]

I think you are getting a little too hung up on the exact age...

 

Trout graduated high school at 17 yr and 9 mo and Machado at 17 yr 10 mo. Buxton graduated at 18 yr 6 mo. Maybe this difference would be important if you are talking about international prospects that sign at 16, but the main point we are debating for the three prospects is the 24 months after being drafted.

 

Machado also followed the Trout promotion time line...

 

After signing he started off in the GCL and was promoted to the NY/Penn (only 2 and 7 games, respectively). The following year he started off in the Sally, and was promoted to high-A on June 23 (two weeks ahead of Trout ). He started his third season in AA, and was promoted to Balt. after playing 108 games.

 

Perhaps we could break it down to games played in Rookie/Low-A/High-A/AA...

 

Trout 39/86/50/91

Machado 9/38/63/109

Mauer 32/110/62/73

 

And in terms of challenging these young kids, remember that Trout's initial call up did not go well (OPS<.700), and he had to start the next year in AAA. What happened next is, of course, legendary. However, it appears even Mike Trout himself can't repeat 2012, so what makes us think Buck can?

[kab21]

You're trying to pin me down on a timeline, I get that. I wasn't making a statement about the midseason timeline or whether Buxton specifically should be called up to AA this year. I was responding in general to the belief that we need to baby these kids along.

 

However, if it were me I would give Buxton a long look (3+ months) in AA before the year was out. Whether that means he skips high A entirely I don't know, but we will get a more accurate picture of current ability the stronger the competition he faces.

 

I'm just trying to figure out if you actually are making a different argument than most on this board.

 

Skipping Ft Myers would be silly. The only reason you do that is if you want and think Buxton is ready for an early 2014 big league promotion. He is good (great/awesome) but let's not get carried away.