Can we please end the Dozier era now?

[Alex]

Also, with regard to Boone, we're talking a different skillset, specifically with regard to HR and OBP. Carroll could see a dropoff, but he'd have to have a ridiculous dropoff in OBP in order to lose that much WAR (and he'd probably never get the ABs to drop to -3.5 WAR if he were that bad)

[ThePuck]

Sorry, misread that. My bad.

 

It happens. The thing that tipped me off is that I remembered Punto had like the worst OPS (.562) for an AL regular in like 20 something years back in 2007 (up to that point in time...not sure if someone has had a worse one since) and even his OPS+ was in the 50s. An OPS+ of 12 is just not gonna happen for a position player over the course of a full season

[jokin]

Chuck Knoblach, Brett Boone, Luis Castillo.... Aside from a few outliers, middle infielders do not last long into their 30s. Read Bill James. He built the age/performance bell curve, according to which guys peak at 28 or so and start to decline at 30. Small middle infielders tend to have a steeper decline than other players because of the demands of their positions.

Jamey Carroll is already an extreme outlier to James' model. But we saw last year how slow he got at short after just 6 weeks of everyday play out there. Hence the first Dozier experiment and the current Florimon experiment.

 

Omar Vizquel begs to differ (he AVERAGED 2.6WAR/YR from ages 29 to 40)

[jokin]

No. I made one search: "Sickels Brian Dozier" It was the first result. I read the article for about 20 seconds, pulled the quote, and published. Total time to dispute the claim that "no talent evaluator thinks he's more than a util infielder" was 30 seconds tops. I could do some more digging if you like, but I don't have to justify John Sickels' authority.

 

Nope, but in this case, he does (or doesn't, given his use of unnamed scouts to so poorly evaluate a player).

[jokin]

The very same article concludes with: "Although he may be just a useful utility player in the long run, the Twins have nothing to lose by playing Dozier regularly the rest of the season. He can't be worse than Jamey Carroll, he's 13 years younger, and he's consistently exceeded expectations." I happen to agree with all of that last part...at 2nd base. There's little reason not to run him out there at 2b for at least half of 2013. I think we saw enough of Dozier at SS last year to conclude that's probably not in his future, and I'm pretty sure the Twins don't view him as a SS anymore either.

 

And uhh, Sickels was wrong, Dozier was a complete flop, he consistently failed to meet expectations and Carroll produced precisely as projected he would.

[notoriousgod71]

Can we please end the Plouffe era? Can we please end the Parmelee era? Can we please end the Hicks era? Can we please end the Florimon era? Can we please end the Doumit era? Can we please end the Escobar era? .....

 

I'd be all for it.

[kab21]

I appreciate that Carroll's advanced age limits him, but he's the best option now. Maybe 200 AB's into the season someone, ie Dozier or Florimon or Dinkleman, would be playing at a level that would merit considering to move the elder 2B into a utility role but for a second time Dozier was handed a job on a silver platter. Why?

 

how exactly does someone play at a level when they are getting spot starts once or twice a week?

 

FWIW - fangraphs had Carroll at 2 WAR last year. A 3.5 WAR (baseball-reference) would make him a borderline all star. that just doesn't pass the sniff test. I wouldn't be shocked at all if Carroll went from a 2 WAR player to a 1 WAR player in a year.

[ashbury]

Carroll will be a 0.000001 WAR player at the rate he's currently being used.

[Guest USAFChief]

And uhh, Sickels was wrong, Dozier was a complete flop, he consistently failed to meet expectations and Carroll produced precisely as projected he would.

I don't disagree that Sickels was wrong, I posted to refute an earlier post by CMat, using words from the same article. I don't have high hopes for Dozier, but I still think there's no reason not to run him out there and see what you've got in 2013. I see no reason to invest a season in Jamie Carroll in 2013. He's 39. He's not going to be part of next year's team, much less the next good Twins team. Dozier might not either...heck, probably won't. But at least everyone will know that by then, rather than fiddling around for half a decade like they did with Casilla.

[jokin]

I don't disagree that Sickels was wrong, I posted to refute an earlier post by CMat, using words from the same article. I don't have high hopes for Dozier, but I still think there's no reason not to run him out there and see what you've got in 2013. I see no reason to invest a season in Jamie Carroll in 2013. He's 39. He's not going to be part of next year's team, much less the next good Twins team. Dozier might not either...heck, probably won't. But at least everyone will know that by then, rather than fiddling around for half a decade like they did with Casilla.

 

I concur, and understand what the Twins are trying to accomplish. It's just too much based more on wishes and hope than on rational analysis. It seems to come down to 3 projected UTIL INF on a long-term MLB tryout for one roster spot (assuming Rosario and Santana wind up being deemed the starters at some point in 2014 and/or 15). Since Keppinger was available for just a small premium (per annum) over what the Twins are paying Carroll this year, it seems that there could have been a better, more team-competive and more cost-effective way to begin re-tooling for 2015.

 

I've never been sold on Florimon.... and Dozier has all of a half-year of success at AA as his ONLY supposed "certified-major-league-ready" resume-imprimatur to being the starting Second Basemen. How much more competitive would the team be with Carroll, Keppinger and Escobar manning the middle infield, with Dozier and Florimon honing their games... working on their weaknesses...building their confidence... and waiting in the wings while doing full-time duty at Rochester? Certainly, the 2 veterans could have been traded before the deadline with promotions (if deserved) to follow.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Chuck Knoblach, Brett Boone, Luis Castillo.... Aside from a few outliers, middle infielders do not last long into their 30s. Read Bill James. He built the age/performance bell curve, according to which guys peak at 28 or so and start to decline at 30. Small middle infielders tend to have a steeper decline than other players because of the demands of their positions.

 

Jamey Carroll is already an extreme outlier to James' model. But we saw last year how slow he got at short after just 6 weeks of everyday play out there. Hence the first Dozier experiment and the current Florimon experiment.

 

Sounds fair, even if the declines are much smaller than you posted earlier. You really could have said the same thing about him last year though and he was great.

[DaveW]

[GCTF]

Carroll>>>>>>>>>>>>>> DeRosa >>>>>>>>>> Dozier

 

I can't believe this wasn't in the first post.

[Physics Guy]

Case in point as to why we need to stop all the ripping of Hicks as well.

[jokin]

Post #7:

 

Remember that the OP is probably in an "extra-spirited" mood and location for editorializing.

 

IIRC, when Dave posted, he was hosting some Twins event at Studio 57, or some such NYC dive.....

[gil4]

Carroll>>>>>>>>>>>>>> DeRosa >>>>>>>>>> Dozier

I can't believe this wasn't in the first post.

 

One thing we are good at here is hyperbole. We've gone from "Carroll>>>>>>>>>>>>>> DeRosa >>>>>>>>>> Dozier" to "Dozier=Cano". While neither one is accurate, I prefer hanging around this end of the spectrum.

[twinsnorth49]

http://smalbanynewyork.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/egg-on-face.jpg

[ashbury]

Case in point as to why we need to stop all the ripping of Hicks as well.

 

As well as Junior Ortiz.

[DaveW]

http://smalbanynewyork.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/egg-on-face.jpg

 

To be fair, I posted a thread about 6 weeks after the original one saying I was very very pleased to be so wrong.

 

This thread was put up after I attended the Twins vs Royals game (it was KC Royals home opener) http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/KCA/KCA201304080.shtml

 

Dozier absolutely stunk up the joint that game, 0-4, 2k's and a GIDP. It's nice to see him truly turn it around 180 degrees and not only become a capable every day guy, but into a potential all-star level 2B.

 

I agree with the sentitment that it is way too early to give up on Hicks as well, who is only 24, a lot of these guys don't hit their stride until 26-27-28 (See Gomez as well). Hopefully the Twins don't give up on Hicks because of a rough start to his career.

[twinsnorth49]

To be fair, I posted a thread about 6 weeks after the original one saying I was very very pleased to be so wrong.

 

This thread was put up after I attended the Twins vs Royals game (it was KC Royals home opener) http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/KCA/KCA201304080.shtml

 

Dozier absolutely stunk up the joint that game, 0-4, 2k's and a GIDP. It's nice to see him truly turn it around 180 degrees and not only become a capable every day guy, but into a potential all-star level 2B.

 

I agree with the sentitment that it is way too early to give up on Hicks as well, who is only 24, a lot of these guys don't hit their stride until 26-27-28 (See Gomez as well). Hopefully the Twins don't give up on Hicks because of a rough start to his career.

 

My post was as much about me as anyone else.

[Tibs]

Well this is awkward

[stringer bell]

Wow! If some of you want some entertainment, reread this thread from the beginning. It is amazing how conventional wisdom can change in a year. Best wishes for Dave's reverse jinx on Hicks.

[twinsfan34]

Good stuff here.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

People who live in glass houses, shouldn't throw stones. We who chose to post here, among some really smart baseball minds, need to be careful not to be mean spirited with our criticism. After all we are all Twins fans and we are all in this together. And we need to remember that as much as we like the Twins, no one wants to succeed more than each individual Twins' coach, GM, manager or player, whether he is on the 25 man roster, the 40 man roster or in AAA or low A. Gooooooooooooo Twins!