Article: Series Preview: Tigers @ Twins, 4/1

[Mike Sixel]

Also, it was a speedy runner at first base. Even the cheesiest double has a decent chance of scoring him.

 

You know who had the poor plate appearance that inning? Hicks. He played right into the Tigers' hands by taking that walk. Should have popped out meekly, setting up Mauer to lead off the ninth like we were forecasting in this thread.

 

that was one of my favorite parts of the thread, where people think it is better for Mauer to lead off, rather than hit with runners on and 2 outs. I don't get that one at all.....

[Mr. Brooks]

What does that have to do with the relative value of catcher defense compared to other positions?

 

Because nobody here is arguing that his defense is what makes him valuable.

[Mike Sixel]

But the part you highlighted was about the part where I said I don't value catcher defense, so I was confused.

 

In looking at fangraphs, his defense actually appears to make him less valuable......

[Brock Beauchamp]

I hate this day off in the middle of the first series. Put it at the end as a travel day. I want to watch again tonight

 

Complete agreement here. I know why they leave an off-day in the opening series, but it sucks.

[Mr. Brooks]

But the part you highlighted was about the part where I said I don't value catcher defense, so I was confused.

 

In looking at fangraphs, his defense actually appears to make him less valuable......

 

Thats because I was wondering why you brought that up in the first place.

I don't think anyone here was arguing that his defense is what makes him valuable.

[Squirrel]

Complete agreement here. I know why they leave an off-day in the opening series, but it sucks.

 

But why the next day? Couldn't they have Thursday be the day off?

[Guest USAFChief]

But why the next day? Couldn't they have Thursday be the day off?

Yeah, leaving a "weather day" open makes sense. Having that "weather day" be day 2 of a 4 day set makes no sense.

[Mr. Brooks]

And scheduling a series in Minnesota the first week in April makes the least sense.

There are at least 16 MLB teams that are in warm climates or domes (or retractable roofs).

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeah, leaving a "weather day" open makes sense. Having that "weather day" be day 2 of a 4 day set makes no sense.

 

Agreed. I don't know why it has to be the second game... Give people two games and then a day off.

[Mike Sixel]

I brought it up because a player is more than a hitter. So, if we are talking about where he ranks relative to other players, his defense matters a lot (to me anyway). If we are arguing only about his hitting, he's in the top 20 for sure. If we are arguing about him as a total player, he drops, imo. YMMV on those breakouts, and I've probably thought about the ranking about 2 mins.....so I'd say +-5-7......

[Willihammer]

If he bloops one down the LF line for a double, in that situation, it's still a mistake. The point is, he should be trying to pull that pitch. If the count gets to 2-2, fine. Take one to left. Not on 2-0, down 2.

 

I think he was trying to pull that pitch. I'll put together a .gif when I get home but it looked to me like Mauer was trying to yank it out of the park, exactly like you described.

[Guest USAFChief]

Agreed. I don't know why it has to be the second game... Give people two games and then a day off.

Make the day off Thursday. That way, if you have bad weather Monday, Tuesday, OR Wednesday, you can canx and play Thursday. If no bad weather, fine, you get a travel day. By leaving an open date Tuesday, if Wed or Thur get canx, you can't make it up, and if no bad wx, you don't get a travel day.

[jctwins]

When teams are selling Opening Day tickets at a significant premium, which many are, including the Twins, then people that pay for it need to see Opening Day. This is why the off day needs to stay on the day after OD.

 

Drop the extra premium, and the other solutions here make complete sense.

[ashbury]

that was one of my favorite parts of the thread, where people think it is better for Mauer to lead off, rather than hit with runners on and 2 outs. I don't get that one at all.....

 

It was a joke. The Tigers' bats were sleeping, no sense in waking them up for the top of the ninth by tying the score prematurely... like you can actually control such a thing.

[Riverbrian]

I think he was trying to pull that pitch. I'll put together a .gif when I get home but it looked to me like Mauer was trying to yank it out of the park, exactly like you described.

 

I agree... Who knows what was in Joe's mind as he approached that at bat but he knows a home run ties it.

 

I also think that Joe knows that the majority of his home runs have been opposite field jobs and that RF at Target field is the toughest wall to clear.

 

I think he went for it and missed it.. Producing a fly ball to left field.

 

Just a guess.

[Mr. Brooks]

I brought it up because a player is more than a hitter. So, if we are talking about where he ranks relative to other players, his defense matters a lot (to me anyway). If we are arguing only about his hitting, he's in the top 20 for sure. If we are arguing about him as a total player, he drops, imo. YMMV on those breakouts, and I've probably thought about the ranking about 2 mins.....so I'd say +-5-7......

 

And my point is that his positional scarcity trumps any negative defense contribution he makes.

Mauer's defense has only been worth a negative 5.2 runs below average, over his entire career, while his positional scarcity has been worth 41.1 runs over his entire career.

[Mike Sixel]

But I'm not talking about his career, I'm talking about now, when he will catch 120 or less games, and his defense is less than stellar. The discussion was about how good he is now.

[Mike Sixel]

though I agree, the defense for a catcher does not matter that much.....so it is mostly about his hitting, and now we are just arguing past each other to no real point, other than what we are arguing about, and I find that not very fun.

[LaBombo]

But I'm not talking about his career, I'm talking about now, when he will catch 120 or less games, and his defense is less than stellar. The discussion was about how good he is now.

 

I get what you're saying, but over the past five seasons, only the top five to seven catchers in games started have managed 120 or more starts. Maybe a more realistic threshold of whether he's really a full-time catcher this season is 100 games. That would put him behind the dish as much or more than at least half the #1 catchers in baseball, and at least some of the guys ahead of him can't play first and have the kind of bat that would never play at DH

[Alex]

I get what you're saying, but over the past five seasons, only the top five to seven catchers in games started have managed 120 or more starts. Maybe a more realistic threshold of whether he's really a full-time catcher this season is 100 games. That would put him behind the dish as much or more than at least half the #1 catchers in baseball, and at least some of the guys ahead of him can't play first and have the kind of bat that would never play at DH

 

Thanks for pointing this out. It's very rare for catchers to catch as much as other players play their positions.

 

I'd be in the camp that says this season he should catch 80 games. Why waste his body this season? I don't think his number of games at catcher should be a measuring stick for anything this season.

[Willihammer]

Well here is Mauer's 2-0 swing in the 8th with Hicks on 1st.

 

http://i.imgur.com/goIbTx5.gif

 

Just kidding. You can see its 3-0 and Verlander pitching. That's the double Mauer roped into the left field corner.

 

The real 2-0 swing against Benoit:

 

http://anygif.org/galleries/Cartoons_and_Anime/201304027678844_mauer_benoit.gif

 

The first difference is, the toe comes up as Mauer pivots on his heel, unlike in the first swing where he stays planted. He drops his back shoulder a bit, clears his hips more violently. That's a home run swing, it just happened to careen off to left field as Mauer got under it.

[LaBombo]

I'd be in the camp that says this season he should catch 80 games. Why waste his body this season? I don't think his number of games at catcher should be a measuring stick for anything this season.

 

And that's a VERY good point. I was just trying to give a frame of reference for his offense to be judged in a context where we consider him the #1 catcher, not a threshold to shoot for.

 

My preference would be for Mauer to catch no more than 80 games as well, for exactly the reason you stated. Of course that would probably force us to endure more Doumit defense and/or Butera plate appearances, but whadaya gonna do?

 

If there were even just a small chance it would help prolong his career, or just make him a little more likely to be healthy next year, I'd still be good with it. And it's not like they'd be benching David Ortiz circa 2007 to keep Mauer in the lineup at DH. Whether Joe or the Twins would be good with it, well, that's another story.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Well here is Mauer's 2-0 swing in the 8th with Hicks on 1st.

 

http://i.imgur.com/goIbTx5.gif

 

Just kidding. You can see its 3-0 and Verlander pitching. That's the double Mauer roped into the left field corner.

 

The real 2-0 swing against Benoit:

 

http://anygif.org/galleries/Cartoons_and_Anime/201304027678844_mauer_benoit.gif

 

The first difference is, the toe comes up as Mauer pivots on his heel, unlike in the first swing where he stays planted. He drops his back shoulder a bit, clears his hips more violently. That's a home run swing, it just happened to careen off to left field as Mauer got under it.

 

Well done.

[LaBombo]

The first difference is, the toe comes up as Mauer pivots on his heel, unlike in the first swing where he stays planted. He drops his back shoulder a bit, clears his hips more violently. That's a home run swing, it just happened to careen off to left field as Mauer got under it.

 

Thanks much for posting, and very good analysis. Completely agree that it looks like two different swings. Couple of other things to add. The second pitch looks to me like a fastball that runs in on his hands, while the first pitch looks almost like an offspeed pitch away that hangs just a bit... an easier pitch to drive.

 

And the second swing also appears to have a bit more uppercut and bat speed than the first, in addition to the open finish you mentioned. It sure looks to me that the ball goes to left mostly due to the velocity and location of a good pitch, not Mauer's approach.