Five predictions

[stringer bell]

I am not terribly optimistic about the Twins' chances. Here are five predictions for 2013. Discuss. 1) The Twins will use more than 10 starting pitchers. 2) Aaron Hicks will be optioned to Rochester at some point this year. 3) At least two players that go north will be traded by the July 31 trade deadline. 4) Pedro Florimon will not start 100 games at SS for the 2013 Twins. 5) Brian Dozier will establish himself as a major league regular at second base.

[old nurse]

1. more than likely 2. Only if Joe Benson is tearing up AAA, 3. Maybe 4. easy guess 5. hope so

[TheLeviathan]

I'll throw five out there:

 

1) Parmalee will establish himself as a part of the future of this team. I expect a line somewhere around 340/400/740 for him. Maybe I'm being optimistic.

2)Our starting pitching is, at best, marginally better than last year.

3) The middle infield is a revolving door - Escobar, Dozier, Carroll, Florimon all end up being inadequate and it's a constant patch-job.

4) Justin Morneau goes crazy and is back to his form as one of baseball's best.

5) Joe Mauer goes out and has another stellar, unappreciated season much like last year only with more time behind the plate.

[spideyo]

Response to the original 5:

1 - true

2- only for about ten days

3 - maybe

4 - true. Initially, sidelined by injuries, but Escobar will play so fantastic filling in that they'll give him the job

5 - Regular, yes. Star, no.

 

 

And leviathan's 5:

1 - yes at the plate, but he'll struggle a bit in the OF

2 - it will average to be marginally better, but like Diamond last year, there will be at least one surprise stellar performance

3 - I think Carroll, Florimon, and Escobar will all play at least 50 games at SS, but Dozier will play most of the games at 2b. It will be better than last year, but below league average

4 - True

5 - True. Also, many people on the boards will wonder why we don't trade him or make him play 1b/3b/dh/of more

 

I'l throw out my five too:

 

1) Not only will the Twins use more than 10 starting pitchers, their rotation on July 1st will only contain one pitcher who is in the rotation on opening day (and that person will be Cole DeVries)

2) Our bullpen will be excellent in games where the starting pitcher goes 6 innings. Burton, Perkins, and Duensing are stellar. In games where the pen comes in before the 7th, they will struggle greatly, and no one other than the above 3 will perform to expectations in the first two months of the season

3) Morneau is a silver slugger/MVP candidate again and is signed to a 3-5 year deal. The boards explode with people pissed they didn't trade him

4) Doumit hits decently and ends up getting traded at the deadline, with Butera returning to backup catcher duty, and Colabella and Parmelee platooning at DH.

5) Plouffe will develop into a very good fielding 3b, and Bert Blyleven will start telling lots of anecdotes about Gaetti.

[Craig Arko]

I'll only make one.

 

Barring injury, not only is Hicks up all year but he will be a top contender for AL rookie of the year.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'll only make one.

 

Barring injury, not only is Hicks up all year but he will be a top contender for AL rookie of the year.

 

That would be pretty tough.

ROY voters dont appreciate defense, which is a huge part of Hicks game.

Even if he has a really good season, he probably wont put up the type of offensive numbers that look shiny to the voters.

[Lesser Dali]

1. The Twins will use more than 10 starting pitchers: It will be close - my guess is 11.

 

2. Aaron Hicks will be optioned to Rochester at some point this year: No, although he will struggle at a few points in the season, Hicks hits .272, with 21 HRS, 69 RBI's, 92 R's, and a .374 OBP and wins Rookie of the Year. His time has come.

3. At least two players that go north will be traded by the July 31 trade deadline: Yes, Jamey Carroll, Josh Willingham and Brian Duensing are traded by July 31, 2013.

 

4. Pedro Florimon will not start 100 games at SS for the 2013 Twins: Absolutely not.

 

5. Brian Dozier will establish himself as a major league regular at second base: For the most part. He hits .262, with 8 HR's, 13 SB's, 63 R's, and a .324 OBP.

[Willihammer]

1. Mauer and Willingham each receive MVP votes

2. Cole DeVries is the Twins leader in IP and ERA

3. Parmelee struggles to keep Darin Mastroianni from taking his job

4. Vance Worley struggles to keep a starting job

5. Kevin Correia struggles to keep a starting job

[Riverbrian]

1. Alex Meyer and Samuel Deduno will be effective in the rotation at some point this year and have jobs locked down for 2014 because of their performance.

2. Morneau will have a fantastic back to his old self year and will re-sign with the Twins and return for 2014. Parmelee will flirt with .300 but come in low with the power expectation and Arcia will be called up mid summer as an injury replacement and explode out of the gate before cooling off in September creating a 2014 rotation LF, RF, DH, 1B, C with Parmelee, Willingham, Arcia, Doumit, Morneau and Mauer.

3. Correia will be alright... Just alright... And everyone will still hate him.

4. Hicks will get the job done... Nothing jaw dropping... We will worry about him for a stretch but he will get it together because of his patience at the plate. All in All... Just a decent rookie year as he starts down his MLB path.

5. Plouffe will hit 34 homers

[beckmt]

To the original 5. 1. True, will probably use about 12 2. False, he will struggle at times, but he plays defense and will need to learn of the fly, Twins have no replacement at this time. 3. Yes as the Twins will be out of contention by then, best bets are Willingham and Carroll, also could be one of the veteran starters. 4. Agreed, Escobar will be the starting shortstop by the end of the year. 5. Possibly, depends how he handles the pressure once the regular season starts. Other notes. Parmalee does not finish the season here and Morneau has a good year and is signed to an extension. Both Meyer and May start games here in September. Swarzak will be found expendable by the end of April, as Pressly and Ronicke will pitch there way onto the team.

[Willihammer]

3. Correia will be alright... Just alright... And everyone will still hate him.

 

This is how threads get derailed.

 

To clarify, again. Nobody hates Correia. In fact, he is a pleasant fellow. The argument is only that Correia is neither:

 

a "pretty darn good pitcher"

an "innings eater"

an improvement over the in-house options

proved himself worthy of a job for 2013, much less 2014

[LaBombo]

2. Aaron Hicks will be optioned to Rochester at some point this year: No, although he will struggle at a few points in the season, Hicks hits .272, with 21 HRS, 69 RBI's, 92 R's, and a .374 OBP and wins Rookie of the Year. His time has come.

 

5. Brian Dozier will establish himself as a major league regular at second base: For the most part. He hits .262, with 8 HR's, 13 SB's, 63 R's, and a .324 OBP.

 

An aggregate of the Hicks projections at Fangraphs, BP, and elsewhere looks something like this: .235/.320/.365, with a K rate of about 25% and 12 HR, 18 SB, 70 runs if he were to manage 600 PA's in 2013.

 

Assuming that he puts up a line like that more or less consistently through April, does he stay up? Should he? Is the reputation he has for slow starts after promotions a cause for optimism that he's on the right track if he manages an April like that? And if he ends up with a line like that after a full season, will it have been worth it?

 

Also, while I like your optimism regarding Dozier, it's hard to find any projection that shows him getting on base at a .300 or better clip, and most figure him for about a .285 obp.

[LaBombo]

To clarify, again. Nobody hates Correia. In fact, he is a pleasant fellow. The argument is only that Correia is neither:

 

a "pretty darn good pitcher"

an "innings eater"

an improvement over the in-house options

proved himself worthy of a job for 2013, much less 2014

 

Yes. And to that I would add that at least some people who think the Correia signing stunk don't believe that he'll ruin the franchise, however he pitches. Instead, they believe that a front office that can't understand why signing Kevin Correia is a bad idea will ruin it eventually.

[Brandon]

My predictions for the season are: 1. Our rotation mess will be straightened out by the All Star break and the rotation will be fine the remainder of the year (not great but passable) 2. Pressley and Walters do well as the 6th and 7th inning guys and make our bullpen strong this year. 3. Florimon starts between 110-120 games this year. 4. Hicks is a candidate for rookie of the year but doesn't win it. 5. If Mauer, Morneau, Hicks, especially Parmelee, and Willingham put up the numbers you are all writing about above then we will contend for the division title by outslugging and bullpenning them.

[Lesser Dali]

An aggregate of the Hicks projections at Fangraphs, BP, and elsewhere looks something like this: .235/.320/.365, with a K rate of about 25% and 12 HR, 18 SB, 70 runs if he were to manage 600 PA's in 2013.

 

Assuming that he puts up a line like that more or less consistently through April, does he stay up? Should he? Is the reputation he has for slow starts after promotions a cause for optimism that he's on the right track if he manages an April like that? And if he ends up with a line like that after a full season, will it have been worth it?

 

Also, while I like your optimism regarding Dozier, it's hard to find any projection that shows him getting on base at a .300 or better clip, and most figure him for about a .285 obp.

 

I am not a projectionist for a fantasy baseball rag, a baseball analysis yearly, or whatever.

 

I am merely a fan, making a prediction based upon instinct, based upon visual, based upon nothing because that is what I want to have happen.

 

I get it Labombo. I am into baseball for different reasons than you. I think your post was friendly and all, but I have a different approach to baseball than you have.

 

I roll my dice differently and march to the beat of a different drummer.

 

When the 2013 season is over and if my predictions are far off, search me out and give me your lecture, I will happily listen, take it in, and work from there.

 

It most probably won't change my approach.

[spideyo]

Oh, one more: A pitcher named Anthony will leave the Twins organization one way or another in search of a "fresh start"

[DaveW]

1. The Twins will win 88 games, shock the world and make the playoffs.

2. The Twins will get swept in the playoffs by the Yankees.

3. Aaron Hicks ROY

4. Morneau and Plouffe Combined 65 HR

5. Butera <100 PA

[Aaron Cross]

1. Plouffe will suck, and Sano will be the 3rd baseman in 2014.

2. Carroll will play over 150 games.

3. Mauer will physically break down and blame it on the WBC.

4. May, Meyer, or Berrios will have Tommy John surgery.

5. De Vries will lead the pitching staff in wins.

[jokin]

1. Mauer and Willingham each receive MVP votes

2. Cole DeVries is the Twins leader in IP and ERA

3. Parmelee struggles to keep Darin Mastroianni from taking his job

4. Vance Worley struggles to keep a starting job

5. Kevin Correia struggles to keep a starting job

 

Agreed, except- Kevin Correia struggles to keep any type of job at the major league level, unless the Padres come calling again...

[jokin]

Oh, one more: A pitcher named Anthony will leave the Twins organization one way or another in search of a "fresh start"

 

Does your spidey sense tell you if the Twins will live to regret the departure of one (or more) of the Anthonys?

[jokin]

3. Correia will be alright... Just alright... And everyone will still hate him.

4. Hicks will get the job done... Nothing jaw dropping... We will worry about him for a stretch but he will get it together because of his patience at the plate. All in All... Just a decent rookie year as he starts down his MLB path.

5. Plouffe will hit 34 homers

 

3) You must be referring to the "new all right", you know: 4-5 runs given up over 5-6 innings, just sufficient enough to at least keep the Twins in the game...

 

4) Hicks has shown enough this spring, that the alternatives, what few there are, would be woefully worse, no matter how much he might struggle at times. Maybe one short-term "demotion" is possible, but he'd be called back up a lot faster than Parmelee was last year.

 

5) I'm still wondering if that month happened last year or was it all a dream. Bruno might be the key here in making your prediction come to fruition, you get both Plouffe and Parmelee mashing down at the bottom of the order and the season will become a lot more enjoyable.

[Riverbrian]

This is how threads get derailed.

 

To clarify, again. Nobody hates Correia. In fact, he is a pleasant fellow. The argument is only that Correia is neither:

 

a "pretty darn good pitcher"

an "innings eater"

an improvement over the in-house options

proved himself worthy of a job for 2013, much less 2014

 

lol... Threads get derailed when someone isolates one point out of 5 and highlights that one point... Especially when that point is about Correia.

 

Just having some fun.

[old nurse]

An aggregate of the Hicks projections at Fangraphs, BP, and elsewhere looks something like this: .235/.320/.365, with a K rate of about 25% and 12 HR, 18 SB, 70 runs if he were to manage 600 PA's in 2013.

 

Assuming that he puts up a line like that more or less consistently through April, does he stay up? Should he? Is the reputation he has for slow starts after promotions a cause for optimism that he's on the right track if he manages an April like that? And if he ends up with a line like that after a full season, will it have been worth it?

 

Also, while I like your optimism regarding Dozier, it's hard to find any projection that shows him getting on base at a .300 or better clip, and most figure him for about a .285 obp.

Fangraphs or any other projection is more than likely would be based on a statistical model of average regression from level to level rather than any assessment actual talent. It effectively discounts the player learning to use the talent at a higher level more effectively.

[Riverbrian]

3) You must be referring to the "new all right", you know: 4-5 runs given up over 5-6 innings, just sufficient enough to at least keep the Twins in the game...

 

4) Hicks has shown enough this spring, that the alternatives, what few there are, would be woefully worse, no matter how much he might struggle at times. Maybe one short-term "demotion" is possible, but he'd be called back up a lot faster than Parmelee was last year.

 

5) I'm still wondering if that month happened last year or was it all a dream. Bruno might be the key here in making your prediction come to fruition, you get both Plouffe and Parmelee mashing down at the bottom of the order and the season will become a lot more enjoyable.

 

If I were Hicks... I'd still consider Mastro a starting CF threat. However, barring a complete collapse at the plate... I think Hicks will keep his job with Defense.

 

That Plouffe month happened and if he can do that... He can hit 34 with health. He may only hit .220 but he can hit 34.

[SweetOne69]

Response to the original 5:

2- only for about ten days

 

I don't know much, but I know that Hicks will not be sent down for only 10 days. First it is a complete waste of an option. And those 10 days would still count as major league service time. Any optional assignment of 20 days or less would still count as accrued service time.

[CDog]

I don't know much, but I know that Hicks will not be sent down for only 10 days. First it is a complete waste of an option. And those 10 days would still count as major league service time. Any optional assignment of 20 days or less would still count as accrued service time.

 

Because of its beginning, I read this all in Aaron Neville's voice. That was the highlight of my morning so far.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Hey stringer bell - this is a fun thread.

 

I would correct and explain every prediction that has been made here, but the Internet is only so big.

[stringer bell]

Hey stringer bell - this is a fun thread.

 

I would correct and explain every prediction that has been made here, but the Internet is only so big.

Thanks buddy. That is what I am here for!

[johnnydakota]

1) Twins lose 103 games

2)Gardenhire is given an extention

3)Parm turns into a hitter, but not a justin type , but more of a average joe type

4)Justin is traded for 2 c+ prospects and wins a silve slugger award in 2014

5)during the next off season Mr. Ryan will talk Jaime Moyer out of retirement and sign him to a 2 year contract , claiming he signed a pretty darn good pitcher (from the 60s)

[Gene Larkin Fan Club]

"To clarify, again. Nobody hates Correia."

 

I think there are many whose misguided frustrations target the player, not GM who signed him or the manager who hands him the ball. It seems like some already hate Correia despite his not yet throwing a regular season pitch for the Twins. I don't hate him, and you don't hate him, but it smells a little like many others do. That being said, I'm not as down on him as most and think he will be serviceable on the mound and valuable in the clubhouse for the wave of young pitchers soon heading our way. I also am not as angry with TR/Gardy as many seem to be. As an optimist, I tend to take a wait and see approach and I understand that they know more about the game than I do.

 

As a realistic-optimist, I also believe that this season will be a long one which isn't likely to bring us anywhere near .500 on the season. We will, however, be given reasons to be genuinely excited about 2014 and especially 2015 and beyond.