ESPN: Twins Optimal Year Of Contention is 2016

[70charger]

Enjoy your circlejerk ThePuck and TheLeviathan. When you're "done," will you maybe move on? You'd make great Yankees fans.

[ashbury]

2. I, for one, think 2016 is a nice pipe dream to sell fans. If that gives you a warm fuzzy, great. As for me, my fandom is pretty much tied up in 2013.

 

I've been on board with the moves Ryan has made that seem keyed to 2015 and beyond. But I don't see that as totally exclusive to also spending the dough to make a better 2013-14 than we are seeing. "They" said that Target Field would provide the financial means to get after it every season. And I don't think expecting a payroll above $100M even in a rebuilding year equates to "spend for the sake of spending".

[The Wise One]

1. When I see some proof that payroll isn't going to keep going down, I'll believe it. Until then, well, lets just say the trend isn't encouraging.

 

2. I, for one, think 2016 is a nice pipe dream to sell fans. If that gives you a warm fuzzy, great. As for me, my fandom is pretty much tied up in 2013. I don't give a rat's arse about how many games they might win in 2016. Even if you could somehow predict what the Twins will look like in three years--which none of us can--how does that help you enjoy watching this ​team? I'm paying money in 2013 to watch the 2013 team. I'll worry about the 2016 team in 2016.

 

You demand proof of others yet have no proof what the plan is or is not. Can't argue with that.

[lightfoot789]

Everybody is excited about Toronto's new team - Which is in many ways similar to Miami's stars last year (Johnson / Buerle / Reyes). I'm not buying the hype and glad we didn't overpay for guys like that. What you have is a potentially stable staff (no stars) and some up and coming prospects earning a chance by June in MN. That should allow 2013 to serve as a season for fans to see their young prospects emerge. I'm sure people in Oakland are excited about Parker and Cespedes even though they were unproven rookies in 2012. All you can ever do is hope and pray that your returning players have equal to better seasons than their best ever seasons of the past. Would you want to have Cliff Lee on your team now at his current contract? Do you get 2011 or 2012 Cliff Lee? Is there a secret to making the right choice?

[FrodaddyG]

All you can ever do is hope and pray that your returning players have equal to better seasons than their best ever seasons of the past.

Well, as long as we're being reasonable...

[Mike Sixel]

I am with chief. If a team has always acted a certain way, until they actually act differently, I would expect them to act the same. That seems fairly logical in approach. Not sure why that makes some people so angry.

[ThePuck]

Enjoy your circlejerk ThePuck and TheLeviathan. When you're "done," will you maybe move on? You'd make great Yankees fans.

 

Ah, I love comments like this...

[jokin]

You demand proof of others yet have no proof what the plan is or is not. Can't argue with that.

 

How can anyone know exactly what "the plan" is when the Twins FO talks out of both sides of their collective mouth? The watchword shoud always be, "watch what they do, not what they say". This has demontrated itself eminently this offseason.

 

I, as one of many, knowing full-well the Pohlad's reluctant ownership history of the Twins, had chosen to believe them when they began the back-channel whispering campaign that they were embarking on a multi-year process of cutting payroll, in the latter half of the 2011 season. This of course, was patently absurd on its face- with conceivably 2 of the best players in the game in their prime, and locked up in high dollar contracts just recently inked- but fit in well with the "commitment" level that the club had made to the community in getting Target Field built. Nice "plan"!

 

So far, notwithstanding what has amounted to PR White Noise to the contrary, the trend is clearly heading South- ultimately to a payroll in the $50-60M range by 2015. Anyone remember the last time someone in the FO talked about the 50% of revenue for payroll "rule"?

[ThePuck]

How can anyone know exactly what "the plan" is when the Twins FO talks out of both sides of their collective mouth? The watchword shoud always be, "watch what they do, not what they say". This has demontrated itself eminently this offseason.

 

I, as one of many, knowing full-well the Pohlad's reluctant ownership history of the Twins, had chosen to believe them when they began the back-channel whispering campaign that they were embarking on a multi-year process of cutting payroll, in the latter half of the 2011 season. This of course, was patently absurd on its face- with conceivably 2 of the best players in the game in their prime, and locked up in high dollar contracts just recently inked- but fit in well with the "commitment" level that the club had made to the community in getting Target Field built. Nice "plan"!

 

So far, notwithstanding what has amounted to PR White Noise to the contrary, the trend is clearly heading South- ultimately to a payroll in the $50-60M range by 2015. Anyone remember the last time someone in the FO talked about the 50% of revenue for payroll "rule"?

 

2010? Maybe more recently, not sure.

[jokin]

Ah, I love comments like this...

 

What is it you love?

 

Must be referring to 70s all-out effort at staying classy when he runs out of knee-jerk-supportive FO paeans, shibboleths and apologias dedicated to the oh-so-put-upon-woe-is-us Twins FO?

[ThePuck]

What is it you love?

 

Must be referring to 70s all-out effort at staying classy when he runs out of knee-jerk-supportive FO paeans, shibboleths and apologias dedicated to the oh-so-put-upon-woe-is-us Twins FO?

 

Something like that :-)

[The Wise One]

How can anyone know exactly what "the plan" is when the Twins FO talks out of both sides of their collective mouth? The watchword shoud always be, "watch what they do, not what they say". This has demontrated itself eminently this offseason.

 

I, as one of many, knowing full-well the Pohlad's reluctant ownership history of the Twins, had chosen to believe them when they began the back-channel whispering campaign that they were embarking on a multi-year process of cutting payroll, in the latter half of the 2011 season. This of course, was patently absurd on its face- with conceivably 2 of the best players in the game in their prime, and locked up in high dollar contracts just recently inked- but fit in well with the "commitment" level that the club had made to the community in getting Target Field built. Nice "plan"!

 

So far, notwithstanding what has amounted to PR White Noise to the contrary, the trend is clearly heading South- ultimately to a payroll in the $50-60M range by 2015. Anyone remember the last time someone in the FO talked about the 50% of revenue for payroll "rule"?

 

What is your proof that the Pohlads are reluctant owners?

[TheLeviathan]

Enjoy your circlejerk ThePuck and TheLeviathan. When you're "done," will you maybe move on? You'd make great Yankees fans.

 

There isnt much else to talk about. If you care to post something else fine but this is crap. A poster made an overzealous putdown about negativity which is getting really tired. I wont pretend to know what 2016 will bring but I know skepticism about this team's aggresiveness is warranted.

 

I'm annoyed by this mentality that anything but sheepish loyalty is a bane on the board.

[TheLeviathan]

At best we can hope that 2015 looks like 2000? Hell, I'd say that at best we can hope that 2013 looks like 2000 as Hendriks, Gibson, Arcia, and Hicks come up and play well. If we're talking "at best" situations, that'd be the "best" situation for the team (not to mention that the 2000 team did not have a Mauer or Morneau on the roster).

 

Starting this season, the Twins should have a steady flow of prospects coming through the system. Will they work out and play well right off the bat? Probably not but it's possible that they come up and start playing well a hell of a long time before 2015.

 

Sorry goofed my years. I meant 2001 in terms of record.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Sorry goofed my years. I meant 2001 in terms of record.

 

I know what you meant. The first winning year with young faces. Still, that year could be 2013 (unlikely) or 2014 (slightly more likely). 2015 is far from a best case situation. The 2000 Twins had Radke and Lawton. The 2013 and beyond Twins have a lot more than that in Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Doumit, etc.

[jokin]

What is your proof that the Pohlads are reluctant owners?

 

Now I know you're trolling.

[Nick Nelson]

Please guys, stop nipping at each other and stay on topic.

[LaBombo]

Now I know you're trolling.

 

If you've made it this far, you've given up the right to be shocked or offended by this thread. It already has an equation of Jamey Carroll to Hall of Famer Phil Rizzuto, a daydream of a Nick Blackburn multi-year extension, and a payroll-free comparison of Terry Ryan to Billy Beane.

 

Edit: Oops, that's probably nipping. Self-administered corrective action as pictured:

http://www.fidopaw.com/images/products/detail_47_TP363_600X600.JPG

[TheLeviathan]

I know what you meant. The first winning year with young faces. Still, that year could be 2013 (unlikely) or 2014 (slightly more likely). 2015 is far from a best case situation. The 2000 Twins had Radke and Lawton. The 2013 and beyond Twins have a lot more than that in Mauer, Morneau, Willingham, Doumit, etc.

 

Brock, let's at least be fair. Koskie and Hunter were arguably more productive than we can expect Mauer and Morneau to be next year. It's certainly more than just Lawton. Joe Mays and Brad Radke are likely better than anything the Twins can expect to have until 2015.

 

I understand what you're suggesting, but the point was that if Pseudo's argument was to be taken seriously he'd have to suggest that 2016 would be a different situation than our current one. (i.e. payroll not being reduced because of consecutive losing seasons) I think it's hardly unrealistic to think the Twins may be heading down a path of a series of losing seasons prior to 2016. So the suggestion that by then the payroll should be ticking up doesn't hold water to me. At least not with such a degree of certainty. There is a good chance most of this current roster is either gone or still earning low arby checks by that time. Until I see payroll heading a different direction, it's hard not to see what Ryan has done throughout his career and cringe at the idea of anyone claiming with certainty that the payroll will be above 60M. Even if 2015 is a jump upwards (which is a stretch considering it's like to be many of these key player's first or second seasons) it's not going to be dramatic enough to think payroll is going to do any major jumping.

 

I'm hopeful it will be, but sure as hell skeptical.

[LaBombo]

Does that article say (I'm not an insider) what "contention" means?

 

It does not, as far as I can tell. But the takeaway from the article that's infinitely more meaningful than its timetable for undefined contention is this nugget:

 

"Manager Ron Gardenhire recently told GM Terry Ryan he wants the 23-year-old [Hicks] to have a legitimate chance to win the job out of spring training."

 

The board consensus that this idea ranks somewhere between sub-optimal and blithering idiocy aside, the real danger presented by the report is in what is missing from it. There is absolutely no mention after that sentence that Terry Ryan hit Ron Gardenhire's mouth with a baseball bat until words meant to influence front office player personnel decisions stopped pouring forth from it.

 

So we're left with only the hope that Ryan is merely being diplomatic by not openly physically or verbally assaulting his manager's dopey ideas. It's better than nothing, I guess.

[Ultima Ratio]

If they are to somehow reach .500 this year, won’t we be wondering why they didn’t pick up a decent free agent at a position of need this offseason?

 

I understand the argument that the team is likely to become better and better positioned for success moving forward, as their top prospects get older and start entering the fold. But there are also things that can change for the worse going forward. What if Morneau and Pelfrey have good seasons and then leave as free agents, creating new holes? What if one of the young pitchers they’re counting on blows out his elbow next spring and misses the 2014 season? What if this year is Willingham’s/Doumit’s last healthy and productive one in a Twins uniform?

 

I just don’t understand making no real effort to improve the immediate quality of your product when you’ve got a 30-year-old Joe Mauer making $23 million, and a bunch of pretty good players around him. Makes absolutely no sense to me. There are times where it’s logical to throw the towel in on a season before it begins but this isn’t one of them.

 

Agreed. There are holes on every AL Central teams, and the season is long and injury exposed for all teams. The greatest causes of the last two horrible seasons were twofold. One, the absence or poor performance (due to injury) to the core players in Mauer and Morneau; and two, injury and/or piss poor performance from the pitching rotation.

 

Now, with Mauer and Morneau back and playing well (fingers crossed), that leaves the rotation as the major source of why the team loses a lot of games again. Fix the damn rotation to an about average rotation and you've got a contender in the AL central at least. Of course there are other problems and holes that need to be addressed, but just fixing these two major problems makes this team watchable again and perhaps even contending into September.

[TheLeviathan]

I think you exaggerate, it could also be said it's annoying that anything contrary to your opinion is a bane on this board.

 

Cute, I don't deny this group is a minority, but it's a vocal one. And it's one of the most obnoxious things about sports - that fan that believes that if you're down 19-1 with two outs in the ninth and you aren't doing the "we're still going to win this one!" dance you somehow are disqualified from fandom.

 

Sometimes being a fan means being passionate about your disappointment too. I'm excited about the team's future, but I'm very skeptical about their willingness to go outside the organization for meaningful help.

[Kobs]

Agreed. There are holes on every AL Central teams, and the season is long and injury exposed for all teams. The greatest causes of the last two horrible seasons were twofold. One, the absence or poor performance (due to injury) to the core players in Mauer and Morneau; and two, injury and/or piss poor performance from the pitching rotation.

 

To me, there is a third factor. Horrible, horrible position players all over the field. Mauer and Morneau alone did not cause the team to go from giving 10% of their plate appearances to <650 OPS hitters in 2010 to 39% in 2011. Their return in 2011 only brought that number down to 21%.

[Physics Guy]

Brock, let's at least be fair. Koskie and Hunter were arguably more productive than we can expect Mauer and Morneau to be next year. It's certainly more than just Lawton. Joe Mays and Brad Radke are likely better than anything the Twins can expect to have until 2015.

 

I understand what you're suggesting, but the point was that if Pseudo's argument was to be taken seriously he'd have to suggest that 2016 would be a different situation than our current one. (i.e. payroll not being reduced because of consecutive losing seasons) I think it's hardly unrealistic to think the Twins may be heading down a path of a series of losing seasons prior to 2016. So the suggestion that by then the payroll should be ticking up doesn't hold water to me. At least not with such a degree of certainty. There is a good chance most of this current roster is either gone or still earning low arby checks by that time. Until I see payroll heading a different direction, it's hard not to see what Ryan has done throughout his career and cringe at the idea of anyone claiming with certainty that the payroll will be above 60M. Even if 2015 is a jump upwards (which is a stretch considering it's like to be many of these key player's first or second seasons) it's not going to be dramatic enough to think payroll is going to do any major jumping.

 

I'm hopeful it will be, but sure as hell skeptical.

 

I agree that the 2001 Twins were much more than Lawton/Radke. I'm also glad you said "arguably" because I would argue that Mauer and Morneau are likely to exceed Koskie and Hunter from 2001. They may not get the HR/RBI totals but their rate stats should be better (and were last year). Isn't it reasonable to conclude that Morneau's numbers should increase at least incrementally?

 

2001

Koskie 26 HR, 103 RBI, .276/.362/.488 121 OPS+

Hunter 27 HR, 92 RBI, .261/.306/.479 102 OPS+

 

2013

Mauer 10 HR, 85 RBI, .319/.416/.446 141 OPS+

Morneau 19 HR, 77 RBI, .267/.333/.440 113 OPS+

 

I'll admit I've stayed out of most of the discussion regarding payroll and chose not to read most of the banter, but I have an honest question for those arguing that payroll should be higher or those complaining that it will be too low. Why does payroll necessarily have to be high for the team to be successful? By 2016 it is possible that only Mauer will have a large contract. A low payroll could mean simply that a large number of our prospects worked out and will only be reaching arbitration years. Worley, Diamond, Hendriks, Plouffe, Parmelee and Dozier will be in their arbitration years but not yet FA. Hicks and Arcia could be in their first year of arbitration. Isn't there a situation where the Twins can have both a good team and a low payroll? I am sorry if this has been addressed already. I just don't have the energy to go through the entire thread at this point.

[TheLeviathan]

Isn't it reasonable to conclude that Morneau's numbers should increase at least incrementally?

 

I'm optimistic about that, no doubt. My point is that it isn't so lopsided as Brock was making it out. Bear in mind that the production we got from Koskie/Hunter also came with excellent defense at valuable positions. Morneau is a 1B and Mauer is a part-time catcher now, so to me it's close. I may lean Morneau/Mauer, but I think it's closer than people remember.

 

Isn't there a situation where the Twins can have both a good team and a low payroll? I am sorry if this has been addressed already. I just don't have the energy to go through the entire thread at this point.

 

I don't disagree at all. Part of why I'm skeptical about 2016 being a certainty to be above 60-70M is precisely that. They MAY be pretty good with a very cheap lot of players contributing. The question is, does the roster get added to from outside (to a considerable tune to even reach 60M IMO) via FA or trade. And I hardly think it's a given that we will. Ryan seems to like to play more on the periphery of both of these and is unwilling to invest large chunks of money in a few players in favor of spreading it out to more reliable options. To me, if things go as we think they will leading to 2015 and 2016, means a VERY low payroll compared to what they should financially be able to afford. That is, unless Ryan changes his mindset significantly from what all evidence thus far has pointed to. Not impossible, but hardly certain.

 

It would be nice to feel like if there is a bunch of good, young, cheap talent that they might take some of that massive revenue pile they are getting from TF and make their product even better. I just can't at this point.

[Rosterman]

How can anyone know exactly what "the plan" is when the Twins FO talks out of both sides of their collective mouth? The watchword shoud always be, "watch what they do, not what they say". This has demontrated itself eminently this offseason.

 

I, as one of many, knowing full-well the Pohlad's reluctant ownership history of the Twins, had chosen to believe them when they began the back-channel whispering campaign that they were embarking on a multi-year process of cutting payroll, in the latter half of the 2011 season. This of course, was patently absurd on its face- with conceivably 2 of the best players in the game in their prime, and locked up in high dollar contracts just recently inked- but fit in well with the "commitment" level that the club had made to the community in getting Target Field built. Nice "plan"!

 

So far, notwithstanding what has amounted to PR White Noise to the contrary, the trend is clearly heading South- ultimately to a payroll in the $50-60M range by 2015. Anyone remember the last time someone in the FO talked about the 50% of revenue for payroll "rule"?

 

 

Someday someone may figure out exactly how much the Twins do take in each year. I still argue that 50% of $100 million is a lot different than 50% of $200 million. That 50% you keep is being spent on what?

[Physics Guy]

I think if Ryan adds to the payroll it will be by extending players he trades for rather than signings through FA. If enough of our prospects work out, I am hopeful of him trading away some of it for a couple of solid regulars that a team that is looking to rebuild wants to dump. Examples this year might be Annibal Sanchez, Wandy Rodriguez, Blanton, Dempster ... I think TR would be more willing to sign one of those guys if he's already traded for him and had a chance to see him with the team for part of a season. Keep in mind I said "hopeful" he might do this, not that I expect it.

[The Wise One]

I am with chief. If a team has always acted a certain way, until they actually act differently, I would expect them to act the same. That seems fairly logical in approach. Not sure why that makes some people so angry.

 

So how many years in a row did the payroll go up? 1999it was 16.4 million, had a dip after Hunter and Santana were gone, and proceded to go up until the 2011 season. So thus the team has not always cut payroll. So using your line that if a team has acted in a certain way, you would expect them to act the same way. After 2008, they attempted to add talent in Joe Crede, Orlando Cabrerra. Payroll went up. Next year they resigned Pavano

[The Wise One]

Now I know you're trolling.[/QUOT

Trolling=someone disagrees with you. I have seen the numerous posters allege this to people that are not agreeing with them.

[FrodaddyG]

So how many years in a row did the payroll go up? 1999it was 16.4 million, had a dip after Hunter and Santana were gone, and proceded to go up until the 2011 season. So thus the team has not always cut payroll.

The 1999 example is poor because they would have been hard-pressed to spend less on a team in 2000 without fielding less than 25 men on the roster. Ditto for the following few years, when virtually the entire team were still indentured servants.