Neal: Twins won't overpay for average pitching

[sturdy10]

I don't know to what degree Neal is speculating here, but if this actually reflects the thought process of the front office it's disheartening to say the least.

 

Disheartening? Yes. But not surprising. Listen Terry Ryan believes that to build a successful team you do it by developing (trades, draft). The two trades that he made earlier this year are evidence of that. He is NEVER going to spend any considerable money on any free agent. I would have loved to get McCarthy here for 2/15, but thats not what they do. Frankly I was surprised that they would give Correia 2/10 just because I would have figured they would just give those innings to Hendriks, Deduno, or DeVries, and save the money.

 

For me the thing is they are rebuilding, and whether or not they say that the moves they have made this offseason tells me they are rebuilding. I'm gonna give them a couple years to see what happens with the 2 prospects they acquired, and see what Gibson can do before I bitch about them giving Correia too much, and not being willing to give McCarthy enough.

[Jim Crikket]

If everyone else thinks that 15mm/2yr is right for average pitching, isn't that pretty much establishing it as the market price? Thus agreeing to pay a similar amount is NOT "overpaying"... it's paying market price. If you don't want to pay market prices for resources necessary to be successful in a given business, you should consider getting out of the business.

 

I hope this collection of players is surprisingly successful and if it is, fans will show up for games. If not, revenues won't be there and next season we'll be going through all of this again as ownership complains about reduced revenues necessitating further payroll cuts.

[Kobs]

I'm gonna give them a couple years to see what happens with the 2 prospects they acquired, and see what Gibson can do before I bitch about them giving Correia too much, and not being willing to give McCarthy enough.

 

There is absolutely no connection between those things.

[Mike Sixel]

It is NOT overpaying if that is the market rate. It is NOT overpaying if that is the market rate. That's how markets work.

[edavis0308]

I think the average price of gas is too high. I'm not going to buy more until it is my asking price of $1.20 a gallon. Until then, I will make my own.

[Kwak]

I think "overpaying" means exceeding the alotted budget. Ex: $15MM was alotted for new SP for 2013--and anything more than that is "overpaying". Adding the public statement of "3 new starting pitchers", and... . The salary reduction achieved by the trade of Span and replacing him with a "league minimum guy", provide additional funds to acquire the "lottery ticket purchase" type of pitcher. Perhaps their theory is something like: "we finished dead last spending $100MM, we can finish dead last spending $80MM".

[Top Gun]

Twins won't overpay for average pitching, the fans won't overpay to watch a last place team. So either win or we won't be watching.

[sturdy10]

There is absolutely no connection between those things.

 

point being if in two years they are contending due to the strength of the two trades this offseason no one will talk about giving Correia 2/10. They will talk about the two trades Terry Ryan pulled off.

[johnnydakota]

Neal made plently of good points. Starting pitchers have been getting overpaid for years and not always giving results. While I think we overpaid for Correia I understand not giving McCarthy $15 million.

 

I still want us to sign a solid pitcher, but who left doesn't have question marks?

 

Who did we aquire without question marks? Terry Ryan needs lots of things to break right for him this season, or he had better quit and ride off into the sunset,and take his posse with him....

[kab21]

I really don't understand this infatuation that so many have with Brandon Mccarthy. He wasn't very good before he went Oakland, he's pitched >120innings once in his career and he suffered a devastating injury last season and it wouldn't be shocking if he wasn't effective again.

 

The only argument is that he's likely better than Correia (I don't like Correia at all). The same goes for Blanton and Saunders. All you're doing is complaining about which mediocre starter the Twins picked up. The Twins probably picked the wrong one but none of them are that good so it's not a surprise that they chose the cheapest one.

 

I think Neal slightly missed with the article when it should be noting that the Twins won't overpay for average pitchers like Edwin Jackson since he got 52M and he isn't that impressive other than he throws hard and is durable.

[70charger]

Twins won't overpay for average pitching, the fans won't overpay to watch a last place team. So either win or we won't be watching.

 

So we won't hear from you till 2014? Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

[Top Gun]

The point is IF is a big word! If not in 2yrs maybe 5 or 10. If the Twins wasn't so cheap they would contending now. Happy new year!

[snepp]

It's been said that "if 2/$10m is supposedly reasonable for Correia, how is 2/$15m NOT reasonable for Marcum?" Good point. But it misses the reverse. If you find that 2/$10m is an absolutely terrible deal for Correia (as it seems that everyone does), how is 2/$15 million not a terrible deal for Marcum? Two wrongs don't make a right.

 

The Twins already overpaid for average pitching. I'm okay with their not doing it twice.

 

No, they overpaid for lousy pitching, and if they hadn't done so maybe they could afford to acquire higher quality pitching instead. As it is they have an embarrassment of back-of-the-rotation riches vying for a spot in what may very well end up being the worst rotation in the league.

 

Overpay for average pitching? If only we could be so lucky.

[greengoblinrulz]

Wonder if they think paying Blackburn 5.5million to pitch in AAA is overpaying

[TheLeviathan]

They still have a small market mentality. They should have done everything possible to move Cuddyer and Kubel before the 2011 deadline but didn't (I suspect they feared a mini-fan backlash for trading away "fan favorites" in the middle of the season). Last year they tried to patch together a winning team instead of blowing it up and rebuilding. Now they face the inevitability of another losing season and are haggling over 5% of the payroll on a critical part of the team. It appears they are trying to patch another team together that's just good enough to keep people interested.

 

The one thing the last few years should tell us is that you can never have enough pitching. Overpaying for a starting pitcher who actually has value is a much better investment and will make a lot better impact on the bottom line (i.e. ticket sales) than the bargain basement approach they have chosen.

 

Very, very well said. I couldn't agree more with this analysis.

[old nurse]

I keep getting told money is definitely not a reason why good pitchers won't come here...being told I'm basically stupid to think money could even be one contributing factor amongst other factors for pitchers not coming here....so, yeah, I think there are people who claim cutting payroll isnt priority one. We'd spend if they'd just come here... :-)

The point was TOP free agents. I asked you to show me one TOP free agent that has ever signed with a team that is as bad as the Twins the last two years. As of yet you have not done so. Going back 7 years on the ESPN tracker I cannot find a top mlb ready free agent in the top 20 to have signed with a bad team other than Willingham who was rated at 17th best free agent. Passan had him rated at 23.

[twinsfaninsaudi]

The good news from this article is that Correia apparently has a little bulldog in him.

[TopGunn#22]

The Twins rhetoric and their actions don't jibe. I have no problem NOT over-paying for mediocrity, IF you pay for QUALITY. However, the Twins claim no one of quality wants to take their money (Greinke). Unfortunately for Spiritofvodka Dave, Corriea is going to be the yardstick by which any further free agent pitching acquisitions are compared. There's just no way you can have a discussion of comparison unless Corriea is used. Signing one more starting pitcher is necessary, but if the Twins are waiting for "sanity to return to the marketplace" hell just might freeze over first.

[Brock Beauchamp]

The Twins rhetoric and their actions don't jibe. I have no problem NOT over-paying for mediocrity, IF you pay for QUALITY. However, the Twins claim no one of quality wants to take their money (Greinke). Unfortunately for Spiritofvodka Dave, Corriea is going to be the yardstick by which any further free agent pitching acquisitions are compared. There's just no way you can have a discussion of comparison unless Corriea is used. Signing one more starting pitcher is necessary, but if the Twins are waiting for "sanity to return to the marketplace" hell just might freeze over first.

 

The thing is that you don't need to go as high as Greinke. Sanchez is well above average. Marcum has been well above average, as has Dempster.

 

There are guys who rate quite a bit above "mediocre", yet the Twins aren't signing them and instead, pursue guys like Correia and Saunders, who only qualify as mediocre on their best days.

 

So far, the Twins have "overpaid" for awful pitchers. We could only wish they were overpaying for mediocrity.

[ThePuck]

The point was TOP free agents. I asked you to show me one TOP free agent that has ever signed with a team that is as bad as the Twins the last two years. As of yet you have not done so. Going back 7 years on the ESPN tracker I cannot find a top mlb ready free agent in the top 20 to have signed with a bad team other than Willingham who was rated at 17th best free agent. Passan had him rated at 23.

 

No, originally when you jumped all over me, all I had said to the one guy who listed factors as to why quality pitchers weren't coming here was that money could be an additional factor since he hadn't mentioned money...and you jumped all over that calling the idea ridiculous and without thought and on and on.

 

Basically you said that even if we were the top bidders for every quality pitcher, every single pitcher would pass since money is never a factor. I mentioned that, on occasion, maybe money is the issue...and you said that was a ridiculous notion.

 

BTW, in all that research, how many of the big spenders have been in last place two seasons in a row? I asked that question after you turned it that way and never got a response. And since you say 'last two years'. What about LAST offseason? What was the excuse then?

 

In any event, I have no desire to continue arguing with you...my response to him was accurate...there are people who believe this offseason isn't about payroll cutting. You are just one example.

[messed up]

So we won't hear from you till 2014? Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

 

Thanks 70charger this is my exact thoughts!

[old nurse]

No, originally when you jumped all over me, all I had said to the one guy who listed factors as to why quality pitchers weren't coming here was that money could be an additional factor since he hadn't mentioned money...and you jumped all over that calling the idea ridiculous and without thought and on and on.

 

Basically you said that even if we were the top bidders for every quality pitcher, every single pitcher would pass since money is never a factor. I mentioned that, on occasion, maybe money is the issue...and you said that was a ridiculous notion.

 

BTW, in all that research, how many of the big spenders have been in last place two seasons in a row? I asked that question after you turned it that way and never got a response. And since you say 'last two years'. What about LAST offseason? What was the excuse then?

 

In any event, I have no desire to continue arguing with you...my response to him was accurate...there are people who believe this offseason isn't about payroll cutting. You are just one example.

 

Can't spend money when they don't sign. Players do sign with the Cubs, a historically bad team with the belief there are better days ahead (see what their collection of free agents did in 2008) Players sign with mid market teams that are playing well. The Cardinals are in a similar market with about similar revenue and payroll have been able to sign free agents. Do free agents go for the top money? Pujhols was offered 275 million and he turned Miami down. I bring him up because the Twins did have an offer out to Mark Buerhle. What they offered him in three years was more than the first three years of the current contract he signed. It was that 4th year that made the contract. Twins might have given him the no trade clause, something he reportedly wished he had now.

[TRex]

Please don't take this the wrong way, 70charger, but every time you reply to one of these inane posts (because I read all your posts) you thwart my attempt to block them by using the site's 'ignore' function.

[jorgenswest]

Any team that has a winning bid for a free agent has overpaid. Some organizations are desirable enough that simply matching is good enough. In the Twins case, they probably have to beat other offers.

 

They are not a small market team. They can afford to overpay a few players. They need to do so wisely.

 

The Twins seemed to set he direction this season of getting younger. It is not the offseason to overpay for decline phase players.

 

Adding a Worley fits the plan. Going after guys like Pelfrey makes sense. Jurrjens and Lannan would be similar fits. Adding a Sanchez or Jackson would have fit a long term plan.

 

I don't get the Correia signing. How does he fit the plan? It seems like he will only take away opportunity from Hendriks or Gibson. The only way I can see the fit is if he is the guy that bounces from long man to emergency/injury starter keeping Duensing in the pen. The Twins might need Swarzak in this role also. I am not sure if it is worth 5 million a year, but that role is worth something and it is better than shuttling guys back and forth as injuries occur. Maybe he is a guy who can take the ball early in the game and throw 5 innings of relief. If so, does that help the Twins stay at a 12 man staff. The extra bench player can have significant value.

 

Do you think the Twins are following a plan or is cutting payroll the driving motivation behind the moves this offseason?

[Jim Crikket]

Any team that has a winning bid for a free agent has overpaid. Some organizations are desirable enough that simply matching is good enough. In the Twins case, they probably have to beat other offers.

 

They are not a small market team. They can afford to overpay a few players. They need to do so wisely.

 

The Twins seemed to set he direction this season of getting younger. It is not the offseason to overpay for decline phase players.

 

Adding a Worley fits the plan. Going after guys like Pelfrey makes sense. Jurrjens and Lannan would be similar fits. Adding a Sanchez or Jackson would have fit a long term plan.

 

I don't get the Correia signing. How does he fit the plan? It seems like he will only take away opportunity from Hendriks or Gibson. The only way I can see the fit is if he is the guy that bounces from long man to emergency/injury starter keeping Duensing in the pen. The Twins might need Swarzak in this role also. I am not sure if it is worth 5 million a year, but that role is worth something and it is better than shuttling guys back and forth as injuries occur. Maybe he is a guy who can take the ball early in the game and throw 5 innings of relief. If so, does that help the Twins stay at a 12 man staff. The extra bench player can have significant value.

 

Do you think the Twins are following a plan or is cutting payroll the driving motivation behind the moves this offseason?

 

I think the Twins are following a plan, even if I'm not particularly fond of that plan. I'm convinced they see Correia as a true "5th starter," in that he is someone they can send out there every 5 games and, even if he gets knocked around, they can leave him out there for 100+ pitches. That's something they rightfully would not want to do for a Hendriks, Gibson, or other young pitcher that would, in the absence of Correia, likely be the 5th starter. With Correia filling a role that allows him to be "abused" a bit, they can pull the young pitchers early in bad outings. It's kind of the Carl Pavano role, I guess.

 

I'm not sure "cutting payroll" is really the motivation for what's happening, but obviously Ryan is pursuing a "get younger" strategy which has the side effect of cutting payroll. He's rolling the dice more than a little bit, though, because if this does turn in to another very poor team, the resulting further eroding of attendance and general fan interest could mean revenues that will not support payrolls bouncing back upwards in future years when he needs it.

[snepp]

I would much prefer to let a guy like DeVries get abused for a fraction of the cost and go sign a pitcher less likely to get abused in the first place.

[nicksaviking]

I think the Twins are following a plan, even if I'm not particularly fond of that plan. I'm convinced they see Correia as a true "5th starter," in that he is someone they can send out there every 5 games and, even if he gets knocked around, they can leave him out there for 100+ pitches. That's something they rightfully would not want to do for a Hendriks, Gibson, or other young pitcher that would, in the absence of Correia, likely be the 5th starter. With Correia filling a role that allows him to be "abused" a bit, they can pull the young pitchers early in bad outings. It's kind of the Carl Pavano role, I guess.

 

While that has some merit, I don't buy it in this case. If they wanted a veteran who they could let get abused every fifth day regardless of performance, they might as well just let Blackburn go out there and get destroyed for 100 pitches. Even if Ryan thinks this will happen, it won't. Gardenhire is fighting for his job (ha good luck), he's not going to willingly let Correia to continue to eat innings if he's not effective. Ryan has no say over in game decisions, Gardy will surely pull him after three innings and kill the bullpen in the process if he thinks it's the only way to salvage a game.

[Jim Crikket]

And I would have preferred that they pay for two better pitchers and be less likely to need to abuse anyone because they'd get fewer bad outings in the first place, but that obviously was either not the plan or, if it ever was, that plan got trashed when they couldn't get better pitchers to sign. Now the plan is just to hope the team is good enough to avoid an all-out erosion of the fan base. Next year, they get the extra $25 million in national MLB tv money. It would have been encouraging to see the Twins be willing to spend a little of that money in advance of getting it, but it also would have been totally out of character.

[Jim Crikket]

While that has some merit, I don't buy it in this case. If they wanted a veteran who they could let get abused every fifth day regardless of performance, they might as well just let Blackburn go out there and get destroyed for 100 pitches. Even if Ryan thinks this will happen, it won't. Gardenhire is fighting for his job (ha good luck), he's not going to willingly let Correia to continue to eat innings if he's not effective. Ryan has no say over in game decisions, Gardy will surely pull him after three innings and kill the bullpen in the process if he thinks it's the only way to salvage a game.

 

You may very well be right. But if Ryan lays out a plan and Gardy fails to follow it, then it's just one more reason to change managers sooner, rather than later, and bring someone in who has the luxury to follow Ryan's "build for tomorrow" strategy.

 

I actually think maybe Ryan and Gardenhire both have already come to a mutual understanding that this will be Gardenhire's final season, regardless of W-L record. If so, there would be no reason for desperate attempts by Gardy to save his job.

[snepp]

It would have been encouraging to see the Twins be willing to spend a little of that money in advance of getting it, but it also would have been totally out of character.

 

At this point I would settle for the spending of their present revenue.