LT contracts for current star position players

[cardsfan]

I see that Yelich is still effected by a broken kneecap from last year and has a longterm contract now through 2028. It always raised an eyebrow that he had 11 HR before the break in 2018 and then was in contention for the triple crown.

 

Cabrera of the Tigers contract is a disaster. He had a chance of 2 triple crowns in a row then his tail off at 34. What a way to get into the HOF as $180 million wasted on a washed up player.

 

Albert Pujols: From one interview when he said he faced Octavio Dotel it seemed like he admitted without saying it that he was 2 years older than listed. Thank God the Angels thought he would lead them to the promise land with one playoff appearance. I'm not such a homer to realize who his trainer was or that his head seemed bigger than when he was a rookie. I know he hit 660, but, he had 449 HRs through 2011 when he was slipping.

 

Joey Votto: Just turned 37. The Reds didn't learn with the Griffey contract. $82 million left counting the $7 million buyout. Votto after 2011 doesn't scare any pitchers as he strikeouts out a lot as well as walking. There is no way at age 37 he should be voted in the HOF with 1031 runs and 958 RBIs regardless of his OBP. You are talking about the poster boy for how bad modern stats can bring about a huge contract when the bottom line is scoring and driving in runs and saving runs.

Griffey was injury proned, but, Votto is laughable.

 

Then there is Robinson Cano.

 

Others still active?

[Cap'n Piranha]

A few more.

 

Chris Davis--2 years left after 2020, total of 7 years and $161M, -2.4 WAR to date

 

Justin Upton--2 years left after 2020, total of 5 years and $106M, 2.6 WAR to date

 

Jason Heyward--3 years left after 2020, total of 8 years and $184M, 7.6 WAR to date

 

Eric Hosmer--5 years left after 2020, total of 8 years and $144M, 0.4 WAR to date

 

Chris Davis, to my mind, has to be the worst contract in MLB history.

[RedBull34]

Max Scherzer's worked out really well...

[RedBull34]

Buster Posey

[RedBull34]

Verlander finished his LT contract and is still playing.

[Rosterman]

Kyle Gibson!

[TFRazor]

 

A few more.

 

Chris Davis--2 years left after 2020, total of 7 years and $161M, -2.4 WAR to date

 

Justin Upton--2 years left after 2020, total of 5 years and $106M, 2.6 WAR to date

 

Jason Heyward--3 years left after 2020, total of 8 years and $184M, 7.6 WAR to date

 

Eric Hosmer--5 years left after 2020, total of 8 years and $144M, 0.4 WAR to date

 

Chris Davis, to my mind, has to be the worst contract in MLB history.

I don't know. That Heyward deal is god-awful

[umterp23]

Davis has to be the worst.  He hasn't hit over .179 since 2017 season.  Career .230 hitter. Has K'd over 1,800 times in less than 5,000 AB's for a K% of 37%.  He continues to make the everyday roster as they can't eat his contract.  Peter Angelos ruined the Orioles with his mandate of "it's my way or the highway". Granted you are the owner but his lawyer mentality obliterated that franchise

[bighat]

On the flip side you have Nelson Cruz. That guy's outplaying all of those guys COMBINED and he's going to be on 1-year contracts for the last 3-4 years of his career. The deals Nelson are signing are fair to the team and its fans as well as the player. Everyone's happy.

 

Then we have Bryce Harper who signed a 13-year deal with the Phillies last season. He'll be 39 when his contract expires. Wonder how that'll go.

 

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

I don't know. That Heyward deal is god-awful

 

It's the exact same AAV as Davis', just one year longer.  And at least the Cubs got positive value out of it--the Orioles are literally going to end up paying $161 Million dollars for a guy worse than whatever 4A outfielder or waiver wire castoff they could have plugged in.  Out of 50 qualified 1B, he is the worst.  If you expand to 500 PA's over the last 5 years, it's 77 players; Davis is 77th.

 

For right fielders, there are amazingly the exact same number of players in the last 5 years with at least 500 PA--77; Heyward is 18th.  The Heyward contract is awful to be sure, but the Davis one is hideous.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

On the flip side you have Nelson Cruz. That guy's outplaying all of those guys COMBINED and he's going to be on 1-year contracts for the last 3-4 years of his career. The deals Nelson are signing are fair to the team and its fans as well as the player. Everyone's happy.

 

Then we have Bryce Harper who signed a 13-year deal with the Phillies last season. He'll be 39 when his contract expires. Wonder how that'll go.

 

If I'm the Twins, I make Nelson a 3 year, $40M offer this offseason.  $15M in years 1 and 2, $10M in year 3 with a $5M buyout.  By wRC+, Nelson is the second-best hitter in baseball this year; better than anyone not named Juan Soto.  I'm sure he'll decline, but even if he loses 150 points of OPS, he's still in the mid-20's for all hitters.  Given the quality of individual he is, as well as his impact on and off the field, I think you do everything you can to have him retire a Twin.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Maybe a little early to be crowing about Yelich. And he's only 28, and his contract only goes through age 36. There may be some low value years near the end, but he's got plenty of time for more big seasons before that point.

 

If you really want to believe 2020 numbers, Cano could be just fine (at least offensively -- maybe a DH now?), plus Heyward and Hosmer are doing well this year. Edit: Wil Myers too!

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Then we have Bryce Harper who signed a 13-year deal with the Phillies last season. He'll be 39 when his contract expires. Wonder how that'll go.

Even the Phillies know how that will probably go, but that's just part of the price of having Harper right now. Not every team can sign a Nelson Cruz for every position, every offseason. At least the Phillies are getting "prime" years in Harper's 20's as part of the deal, as compared to other long-term contracts signed post-age-30.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Since the OP is counting extensions like Yelich and Votto, it would be only fair to mention Trout too.

 

Machado, Betts, Goldschmidt, and Rendon are also having good seasons this year. They'll be worse, maybe even bad, by the end of their deals, but teams know that going in.

[Shaitan]

Bobby Bonilla

[cardsfan]

Yelich will be fine. Somehow he became a power hitter after the 90+ games of the first half of 2018 in which he hit just 11. Just like several Brewers hitting 30 over the 2017-2019 seasons that came out of nowhere.

 

But, Braun no longer with 30+ Hrs as he is another bad long-term contract. Got caught twice.

 

Giancarlo Stanton is a bad LT contract because he is always injured with just 14 games this year. The Cardinals had a deal for him which he rejected so we traded for and signed Goldschmidt and extended him for 5 years costing the Cards Zac Gallen. Three really bad contracts with the Cards offering Jay Hey with his 13 Hrs more money than the Cubs and he rejected us, boo hoo. And the Cardinals after winning 2011 with no DH in the NL and knowing Pujols is likely 2 years older after saying he faced Octavio Dotel in the DR almost matched that awful owner in Anaheim's offer of 10 year. Price rejected the Cardinals for the Red Sox for 7 years.

 

Scherzer wanted to come to his home town, but, the staff here seemed set as you take a big risk with pitchers. Mark Buehrle years earlier the same as he retired at 36 with a 15-8 record in 2015.

 

Goldschmidt has 4 more years left, but, he is looking good this year and his defense saves infielders' errors. No division title and second round appearance last year without his defense at first as Luke Voit was a failure in St. Louis. The contract looks better now for Goldie after hitting just .260 and going over 60 ABs without an RBI still ended up with 97. Could cut down on the strikeouts 10% would get a lot of votes for MVP at his age.

 

$216 million guaranteed left on Giancarlo's contract with the $10 million buyout. I'm sure he might be comeback player of the year one year, but...

[ScrapTheNickname]

 

If I'm the Twins, I make Nelson a 3 year, $40M offer this offseason.  $15M in years 1 and 2, $10M in year 3 with a $5M buyout.  By wRC+, Nelson is the second-best hitter in baseball this year; better than anyone not named Juan Soto.  I'm sure he'll decline, but even if he loses 150 points of OPS, he's still in the mid-20's for all hitters.  Given the quality of individual he is, as well as his impact on and off the field, I think you do everything you can to have him retire a Twin.

I don't know if Cruz will decline. He is more likely to fall off a cliff due to an injury -- presumably to his wrist, which has tormented him in the past. Or perhaps his hips will go. Something will eventually put him on the shelf, and I don't sense that it will be a decline issue.

[twinssporto]

 

On the flip side you have Nelson Cruz. That guy's outplaying all of those guys COMBINED and he's going to be on 1-year contracts for the last 3-4 years of his career. The deals Nelson are signing are fair to the team and its fans as well as the player. Everyone's happy.

 

Then we have Bryce Harper who signed a 13-year deal with the Phillies last season. He'll be 39 when his contract expires. Wonder how that'll go.

Statistically, POOR.

[mikelink45]

 

Buster Posey

this one is still questionable

 

[mikelink45]

• Our own Homer Bailey should be on the bad list six years, $105 million
• Jason Bay: four years, $66 million
• Kevin Brown: seven years, $105 million
• Rusney Castillo: seven years, $72.5 million - yes, who?  Red Sox
• Carl Crawford: seven years, $142 million
• Jacoby Ellsbury, seven years, $153 million
• Prince Fielder: nine years, $214 million
• Josh Hamilton: five years, $125 million
• Mike Hampton: six years, $80 million
• Ryan Howard: five years, $125 million
• Albert Pujols: 10 years, $240 million
• Pablo Sandoval: five years, $95 million
• James Shields: four years, $75 million
• Barry Zito: eight years, $126 million

 

Every team feels it is too smart and signs huge contracts without competition.  Is Mike Trout worth his new contract?  No.  It is like the Mauer contract - if the team cannot compete and the contract keeps them from signing the players they need it is not worth it.  

 

The teams are the suckers, the big time financial wizards who own them are the ones who throw the dollars around.  I do not feel bad for the Angels - Pujols is getting counting numbers but contributing nothing meaningful. All over baseball there are these terrible contracts - they do the same in the NBA and the teams are held back because of them.

 

Who knows Donaldson could be the same for us.  I am all for signing players in their prime, but signing them for what they did with other clubs is not good financial sense. 

[TFRazor]

 

Bobby Bonilla

Aren't they paying him through 2031 or something ridiculous?

[RedBull34]

 

this one is still questionable

28.2 WAR over his contract.  Yes he's in decline, but this contract turned out more favorably then the Mauer one.

[SteelDodo]

 

Who knows Donaldson could be the same for us.  I am all for signing players in their prime, but signing them for what they did with other clubs is not good financial sense. 

 

 

I don't share the same fear over Donaldson. Yes, he probably will decline somewhat, but there are several factors that makes his deal more palatable than many of the others listed.

 

1. He is an upgrade with his bat AND his defense. Even when one starts to decline, he'll still provide value (unlike Chris Davis). If his bat decreases, he will still play great D at 3B. Likewise, if his D decreases, he can shift to 1B or DH.

2. This is a 4-5 year deal instead of an 8-13 year deal.

3. At the time of the deal, the Twins were in a "win now" mode, and foreseeably will be for the duration of the deal. Much of their core will still be with the team for the next ~3 years (Sano, Kepler, Buxton, Maeda, Berrios, Polanco, etc.). I agree that it is absolutely a waste of money to have an aging/expensive veteran on a rebuilding & losing team (e.g. Davis on the Orioles or Cabrera on the Tigers), but the Twins will likely be in contention for next few years and the duration of his deal. There is a good chance that the Twins will be in a massive rebuild in ~4 years. Until then, I'm glad they are putting all the chips in for the next few years.

[mikelink45]

 

I don't share the same fear over Donaldson. Yes, he probably will decline somewhat, but there are several factors that makes his deal more palatable than many of the others listed.

 

1. He is an upgrade with his bat AND his defense. Even when one starts to decline, he'll still provide value (unlike Chris Davis). If his bat decreases, he will still play great D at 3B. Likewise, if his D decreases, he can shift to 1B or DH.

2. This is a 4-5 year deal instead of an 8-13 year deal.

3. At the time of the deal, the Twins were in a "win now" mode, and foreseeably will be for the duration of the deal. Much of their core will still be with the team for the next ~3 years (Sano, Kepler, Buxton, Maeda, Berrios, Polanco, etc.). I agree that it is absolutely a waste of money to have an aging/expensive veteran on a rebuilding & losing team (e.g. Davis on the Orioles or Cabrera on the Tigers), but the Twins will likely be in contention for next few years and the duration of his deal. There is a good chance that the Twins will be in a massive rebuild in ~4 years. Until then, I'm glad they are putting all the chips in for the next few years.

I have no problem with your response.  I am not necessarily against the Donaldson signing, but I am not happy with year one.  His health seems like an issue and yes he will diminish in the field the next couple years and no he will not take 1B from Sano. 

[mikelink45]

 

Buster Posey

what are his stats this year?

[mikelink45]

 

It's the exact same AAV as Davis', just one year longer.  And at least the Cubs got positive value out of it--the Orioles are literally going to end up paying $161 Million dollars for a guy worse than whatever 4A outfielder or waiver wire castoff they could have plugged in.  Out of 50 qualified 1B, he is the worst.  If you expand to 500 PA's over the last 5 years, it's 77 players; Davis is 77th.

 

For right fielders, there are amazingly the exact same number of players in the last 5 years with at least 500 PA--77; Heyward is 18th.  The Heyward contract is awful to be sure, but the Davis one is hideous.

good warning for the Twins, I am already questioning the Kepler contract as well as having him hit first in the lineup.

[RedBull34]

 

what are his stats this year?

He's also not getting paid this year.

[cardsfan]

what are his stats this year?

We had some trolls saying our GM giving our catcher Molina 3 years for $60 million was a bad contract. Molina won his 10th Gold Glove two years ago and last year the Cards won 91 and the second round and there was no chance they make the playoffs with a mediocre catcher as he handles pitchers quite well. This is the last year of the contract so he will likely go year to year with incentives like Adam Wainwright.

 

It is not coincidental that the Cardinals have won a lot of playoff rounds and games and averaged nearly 91 wins this century with only 2 catchers with 14 gold gloves with Mike Matheny having one with the Giants as Molina took over.

 

You lost Joe Mauer for some years as he suffered from concussions and that hurt. The catcher is the quarterback in baseball. He needs to be the smartest man on the field.

 

The Giants in decline with Posey in decline not surprising.

[mikelink45]

 

We had some trolls saying our GM giving our catcher Molina 3 years for $60 million was a bad contract. Molina won his 10th Gold Glove two years ago and last year the Cards won 91 and the second round and there was no chance they make the playoffs with a mediocre catcher as he handles pitchers quite well. This is the last year of the contract so he will likely go year to year with incentives like Adam Wainwright.

It is not coincidental that the Cardinals have won a lot of playoff rounds and games and averaged nearly 91 wins this century with only 2 catchers with 14 gold gloves with Mike Matheny having one with the Giants as Molina took over.

You lost Joe Mauer for some years as he suffered from concussions and that hurt. The catcher is the quarterback in baseball. He needs to be the smartest man on the field.

The Giants in decline with Posey in decline not surprising.

Posey not playing this year is not the only reflection on his value - last year he had a WAR of 0.6 a dramatic reduction.  Catchers are difficult to judge and Posey has been a great one, but might not be any more.  The Cards have really done well, but they are also smart refusing the long term expensive contract like the one Pujols wanted.  Losing him seemed bad, but in the end was a good thing. 

[cardsfan]

Posey not playing this year is not the only reflection on his value - last year he had a WAR of 0.6 a dramatic reduction. Catchers are difficult to judge and Posey has been a great one, but might not be any more. The Cards have really done well, but they are also smart refusing the long term expensive contract like the one Pujols wanted. Losing him seemed bad, but in the end was a good thing.

The Cards lucked out. They offered Pujols a big contract. David Price was going here. Heyward with his 13 Hrs had a better deal than the Cubs offerrd who won a WS in spite of his contract. Giancarlo rejected being traded here to St. Louis.

 

Looking at stupid sabremetrics, the Cards signed Fowler for $80 million who has troubling playing 130 games in a season. Lucked out in not having to pay Seattle for Mike Leake's last year. Don't give players who are .500 pitchers or a one-time All-Star with no power or high OBP long term contracts. No extensions unless there is a likely possibility of player leaving. Thank God the Cards nursed Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright through pitching injuries as our only two power pitchers. I wonder if Wainwright can come back next year on his 3rd one year contract. Not sure. Molina a 1 year contract. Those two wouldn't come back if the team wasn't in contention which it has been the entire century. When the Cards had their one losing season in 2007 they were only one game and a half out around September 7.

 

The key is developing pitching, finding pitching like KK from S. Korea, trades except Mulder for Dan Haren with the extension of Mulder ill-advised, rehabbed pitchers like Carpenter. Scherzer wanted to come to St. Louis, but, $210 million seemed steep.