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Posted

So much wrong with the way the country is proceeding to fight this pandemic. First and foremost, we have no semblance of accurate numbers. Secondly, the federal administration in the person of the president have put out so much misinformation that it is difficult to believe anything coming out of the mouths of Trump and the people who accompany him to his daily briefings. The federal coordination is nearly nonexistent. Finally, there are pressing issues with needed supplies and materials. People will continue to die needlessly. 

Community Moderator
Posted

We were woefully unprepared, and didn’t need to be. Under the guise of it being a hoax or was nothing and between campaign rallies and golfing trips, the President just simply did not do anything. The lack of leadership and timely response will cost lives ... how many, we simply cannot quantify. But the WH knew in January and did nothing. The handling of this was just bad from the get go from testing to early quarantines to stockpiling supplies ... all the shoulda, woulda, couldas does no good now, but it still makes me angry.

 

https://apnews.com/090600c299a8cf07f5b44d92534856bc?fbclid=IwAR310iiIo9xirHkEpXcl-gKVLDbtWhj6xoPOHpow0VdiyVpOHqomoE3arUw

Posted

I don’t disagree, but a counterpoint to that is that the people who study these things have always warned that we won’t be prepared, period. No qualifiers like “we won’t be prepared, unless we stockpile ventilators” or “millions will die if we don’t do this or that” or “we won’t be ready if government is divided...” Just plain “we won’t be ready.”

Community Moderator
Posted

I don’t disagree, but a counterpoint to that is that the people who study these things have always warned that we won’t be prepared, period. No qualifiers like “we won’t be prepared, unless we stockpile ventilators” or “millions will die if we don’t do this or that” or “we won’t be ready if government is divided...” Just plain “we won’t be ready.”

Sure. However ... we could have started stockpiling in the middle of January instead of the middle-end of March. What was there is almost depleted. We could have kept the pandemic team together. We could have done a whole lot more two months ago that could have put us in a better position today as we are seeing a dramatic rise in cases now without adequate supplies. I wasn’t suggesting we should have stockpiled years ago, but months ago ... and weren’t. I think large amounts of supplies should have and could have been organized and coordinated with the federal government. Because actions ... swift and definitive ... weren’t done immediately, I think that the human and economic tolls will be a whole lot worse. Of course, there’s no way to know that, either, and that is my opinion, however, the medical professionals I do know are close to be without proper protective gear and we are seeing hospitals already reaching capacity. Again, no way to know if some of that could have been stemmed if only, but based on everything I’ve read, I think so. And I think it begins with the lack of leadership at the top.

Community Moderator
Posted

 

An immune person can touch a doorknob and then touch an elevator button and spread the virus to grandma or other vulnerable populations, same as anyone else. Maybe some people can carry around paperwork ("papers, please") showing they have been tested and don't need to wear a mask to reduce the virulence if they benignly sneeze, but crowds of people will still be the same petri dish, I think.
 

An immune person will need to be careful not to spread the virus, by hand or otherwise. Hand washing and sanitizing will still be important. But I don't see any danger being in a crowd of people if everyone is certified as immune, and I think that immune people should be able to go back to work so long as they keep their hands clean.

Provisional Member
Posted

The most important thing right now is to get the R number (the one Nate Silver calls R-effective in his article) below 1. I think most of the country is there already, even though the numbers don't show it yet.  

 

When we're below R1, the number of infections will go down every day. That's the elusive actual number, the one we don't really know right now.  

 

In many states, the cumber of confirmed cases appeared to flatten for several days recently. Most of those states have shown small increases day-to-day in the past 5 days or so. But testing has also been increasing, so it seems reasonable to guess that we're really just finding a larger share of whatever cases are out there. Increased testing on top of increasing spread would result in alarming looking day-over-day numbers. We're not seeing that in most states.

 

Here in Minnesota, the testing rate has remained consistent. New cases per day has also been mostly flat, although the highest number so far was announced on Saturday, followed by a smaller but still relatively high report today to make it the worst consecutive-day total yet. But even within a consistent sample size there are still reasons to believe that positives can increase while the true number of infections is falling. The delay from infection to symptoms bad enough to warrant a test is one. The focus of testing on at-risk groups like health care workers is another.  

 

It has also been reported that influenza cases have plummeted. This makes sense, as social distancing works against the flu too. Now, consider what happens when there a number of different causes for respiratory distress that produce the same symptoms as COVID-19, and only a limited number of COVID tests available. You're going to find more of what you're looking for when fewer tests are spent on patients with other diseases. 

 

I do worry about another scenario. We have divided the country into two distinct groups: The first are those who are truly sheltering at home, only needing occasional runs for food and supplies. This is more than half of the population, including retirees, students, working-age adults who chose not to work, those who can work from home, and people who lost their jobs due to COVID-related shutdowns. The second group is anybody who still leaves the home for work regularly.

 

The R in the first group should quickly fall to near zero. There would be some in-household transmission, but that would end after a generation or two. If that decrease happens at a rate that roughly mirrors any increase in spread among the second group, the overall daily new case numbers should flatten for a time (reduction in first group offsets continuing increase in second), then resume an upward path (reduction in first group no longer possible, increase in second group continues on).  

 

If the pandemic keeps spreading through the "essential" population, even with an effective R of just over 1, we're pretty much screwed for a while. It looks like testing as a primary means of control is unrealistic unless the number of infections is brought way down. I don't think we can shut enough additional workplaces to make a difference, mostly because the "essential" but non-critical workplaces that remain open aren't likely hot spots of viral spread (there's Menards and Home Depot and that's about it). 

 

On the other hand, if we do turn the corner on new infections I think there are plenty of businesses that could re-open with minimal impact on the R, especially with staff and customers both becoming habituated to good practices. There isn't a lot of close contact at most retail shops. Even restaurants might be okay with less seating and reservations-only policies to eliminate wait lines. There's some wiggle room because an R of .95 is just as good as an R of .3 after active cases are brought to a low enough level.  

Posted

 

 

 

It looks like testing as a primary means of control is unrealistic unless the number of infections is brought way down.  

 

Another great post. 

 

Although, the issues that you link to. Are issues that can be overcome with leadership.

 

The testing supplies and supply chain:

 

Testing Kits, PPE, Ventilators. It's April and this has been a constant unyielding refrain. Yet, we can produce 15 million Snickers bars a day. Something is broken and it is something that leadership can fix. The question of why, what, where, who and how should have already been addressed so the leaders can get ready for the next question that needs to be answered.

 

Supply Chain? It's April. Fix it. 

 

Public Health Staff: 

 

We are setting unemployment records as we speak. We have never had a larger talent pool to choose from. Start training. We have many people who can conduct contact tracing to choose from. We have many people available for whatever needs to be done. Start training and get some people back to work in the process. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Community Moderator
Posted

Another great post.

 

Although, the issues that you link to. Are issues that can be overcome with leadership.

 

The testing supplies and supply chain:

 

Testing Kits, PPE, Ventilators. It's April and this has been a constant unyielding refrain. Yet, we can produce 15 million Snickers bars a day. Something is broken and it is something that leadership can fix. The question of why, what, where, who and how should have already been addressed so the leaders can get ready for the next question that needs to be answered.

 

Supply Chain? It's April. Fix it.

 

 

This article is a few days old now. We aren’t producing because leadership hasn’t invoked the Defense Production Act until recently when he ordered GM to make ventilators. And used the act to raid the home of someone who had a large storage of masks who was selling them on the black market for huge profits. Yes, it’s broken because leadership is broken. Your refrain has been my refrain from day 1 ... why wasn’t this done in January? Because CEOs lobbied for him not to do so and money talks. He said it’s only for a ‘break the glass’ moment, yet it has been used countless times for other purposes? Why? Don’t know. But it’s maddening. There is no telling what could have been mitigated if this had been done.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/us/politics/coronavirus-defense-production-act.html

 

And then there’s Germany who sprang into action immediately compared to other countries. Their results show that early, preventative measures make a difference. Testing, testing, testing.

 

https://apnews.com/03d48eb93fa6cb66262de6f7d57f27df?fbclid=IwAR3nEfYpXB7-qghLjw2ck7Px1ZWRVjY0Q-sS-4S_0Qf_XOUrjf26CYZno-Q

Posted

This article is a few days old now. We aren’t producing because leadership hasn’t invoked the Defense Production Act until recently when he ordered GM to make ventilators. And used the act to raid the home of someone who had a large storage of masks who was selling them on the black market for huge profits. Yes, it’s broken because leadership is broken. Your refrain has been my refrain from day 1 ... why wasn’t this done in January? Because CEOs lobbied for him not to do so and money talks. He said it’s only for a ‘break the glass’ moment, yet it has been used countless times for other purposes? Why? Don’t know. But it’s maddening. There is no telling what could have been mitigated if this had been done.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/31/us/politics/coronavirus-defense-production-act.html

I'm personally tired of the public fighting with Governors and it's tough to listen to Governor Brian Kemp of Georgia talk about new information turning on his personal light switch belatedly.

 

Times like these is what we elect our leaders for. When times are good its 6 for one and half dozen for the other.

 

When times are bad, this is when who leads matters. If this event cant unite both sides of the aisle... nothing can.

 

Those who want to save lives and those who want the economy going yesterday should both know by know that the answer to solving both problems is the same. Get this under control as quickly as possible. If this can't unite both sides of the aisle... nothing can.

 

I'm under the personal impression that both sides will never come together.

 

Gerry Rafferty once sang. Clowns to left of me. Jokers to the right.

Posted

This may sound like I'm making light of the situation. I'm not but a lighter thought did occur to me.

 

We are going to have a lot of people in need of hair cuts when this is over.

Provisional Member
Posted

 

 

 

Public Health Staff: 

 

We are setting unemployment records as we speak. We have never had a larger talent pool to choose from. Start training. We have many people who can conduct contact tracing to choose from. We have many people available for whatever needs to be done. Start training and get some people back to work in the process. 

Massachusetts is doing something like that.

Posted

As recently as Monday. Mike Ryan of the World Health Organization did not recommend the wearing of Masks and the CDC has followed these same guidelines. 

 

Using my limited common sense, I've never understood this directive from the WHO and the countries following the guideline because if they didn't (at least) help. The medical workers wouldn't be asking for them and constantly fighting for supply... so of course they would have helped all along despite the previous recommendations from the WHO and CDC stating that they were not necessary.   

 

Of course, this recommendation has now been reversed. The WHO and CDC has now recommended facial coverings when social distancing is not possible. 

 

https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/cdc-guidance-cloth-face-masks-coronavirus-us-government/

 

The CDC is not recommending the Surgical or the N-95 Mask. They want them reserved for our Health Care workers on the front lines. 

 

Things change. 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted

 

This article by Nate Silver, who knows a thing or two about data analysis, pretty much summarizes my disquiet about conclusions being drawn from available test data on this virus:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/coronavirus-case-counts-are-meaningless/

 

It's worth reading entirely, but let these excerpts suffice as a summary:

 

https://www.inforum.com/newsmd/coronavirus/5027481-North-Dakota-has-a-higher-rate-of-positive-coronavirus-cases-than-Minnesota.-Does-that-teach-us-anything

 

I agree that the usefulness of this type of data is certainly questionable with individual states making up their own standards and practices.

 

However, here is an example of a difference of opinion between a Professor of Social Statistics/City Council Woman and a Professor/hospital director of infection prevention at the local level. One quoting cases per resident and the other quoting tests per resident.  

 

I have no opinion. I don't know what is useful. Other than more data and make sure the data is accurate.  :)

Community Moderator
Posted

As recently as Monday. Mike Ryan of the World Health Organization did not recommend the wearing of Masks and the CDC has followed these same guidelines.

 

Using my limited common sense, I've never understood this directive from the WHO and the countries following the guideline because if they didn't (at least) help. The medical workers wouldn't be asking for them and constantly fighting for supply... so of course they would have helped all along despite the previous recommendations from the WHO and CDC stating that they were not necessary.

 

Of course, this recommendation has now been reversed. The WHO and CDC has now recommended facial coverings when social distancing is not possible.

 

https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/cdc-guidance-cloth-face-masks-coronavirus-us-government/

 

The CDC is not recommending the Surgical or the N-95 Mask. They want them reserved for our Health Care workers on the front lines.

 

Things change.

And I posted a DIY mask you can easily make at home that involves no sewing.

Posted

Another great post.

 

Although, the issues that you link to. Are issues that can be overcome with leadership.

 

The testing supplies and supply chain:

 

Testing Kits, PPE, Ventilators. It's April and this has been a constant unyielding refrain. Yet, we can produce 15 million Snickers bars a day. Something is broken and it is something that leadership can fix. The question of why, what, where, who and how should have already been addressed so the leaders can get ready for the next question that needs to be answered.

 

Supply Chain? It's April. Fix it.

 

the machine that makes snickers bars can’t make N95 masks or face shields. We’re missing yield and capability in this equation, in other words, time.

 

While 3M was scaling up masks in January and now 90 days later, doubled their output to 35 million per month world wide. They already knew how to make the masks and had the suppliers in place to make them.

 

Automakers know how to make filters, but not how to make PPE. They can learn from 3M or whoever but that takes time.

 

The DPA was just signed, it’ll take some time to train operators, find suppliers with capacity who will need to make capacity too, testing by the FDA and reengineer machines.

Community Moderator
Posted

the machine that makes snickers bars can’t make N95 masks or face shields. We’re missing yield and capability in this equation, in other words, time.

 

While 3M was scaling up masks in January and now 90 days later, doubled their output to 35 million per month world wide. They already knew how to make the masks and had the suppliers in place to make them.

 

Automakers know how to make filters, but not how to make PPE. They can learn from 3M or whoever but that takes time.

 

The DPA was just signed, it’ll take some time to train operators, find suppliers with capacity who will need to make capacity too, testing by the FDA and reengineer machines.

Yep. These things take time. Imo, the order could have been given for private business, such as GM, to start production a while ago. It’s frustrating to me that it wasn’t because we knew what was coming in January. There is no way to know for certain what difference that could have made for us, but when you compare the countries who took this seriously from the onset and those that didn’t, the numbers do tell a story. And now we are coming into huge rise of numbers and low on supplies. Yes, we need to bide our time for a lot of things, but as much as states individually have done or tried to do, they couldn’t do anything to order the ramp up of production. Only an executive order could have. Finally, we have some movement in that area, but it took too long for the order to be given in the first place, imo. But now we still need to bide our time for other things, too. It’s all just a waiting game at this point.
Posted

 

the machine that makes snickers bars can’t make N95 masks or face shields. We’re missing yield and capability in this equation, in other words, time.

While 3M was scaling up masks in January and now 90 days later, doubled their output to 35 million per month world wide. They already knew how to make the masks and had the suppliers in place to make them.

Automakers know how to make filters, but not how to make PPE. They can learn from 3M or whoever but that takes time.

The DPA was just signed, it’ll take some time to train operators, find suppliers with capacity who will need to make capacity too, testing by the FDA and reengineer machines.

 

Valid points

 

I often wish that a snap of the fingers would get the job done.  :)

 

I also know that complete focus to the task at hand can accelerate things greatly. We don't have time for union concerns, we don't have time for price negotiation. We don't have time for red tape. Who, what, where and how. Go. Work as hard as the Doctors and nurses are. 

 

 

Community Moderator
Posted

Valid points

 

I often wish that a snap of the fingers would get the job done. :)

 

I also know that complete focus to the task at hand can accelerate things greatly. We don't have time for union concerns, we don't have time for price negotiation. We don't have time for red tape. Who, what, where and how. Go. Work as hard as the Doctors and nurses are.

 

This isn’t a union issue. Unions are not standing in the way of this happening. Or a price issue, we’ll except for price gouging, which is a CEO thing. It’s an executive order issue. Always has been. Or private business doing so of their own volition, which some have done. But to ramp up production, to order it done, to get businesses such as GM to start making ventilators, that takes an executive order. Its called the Defense Production Act, which wasn’t invoked until recently. It’s not a union thing, it’s CEOs of companies asking the one who could use such powers, not to. Production didn’t start until late because this is what it took, and what it took didn’t happen back in January or February.
Posted

This isn’t a union issue. Unions are not standing in the way of this happening. Or a price issue, we’ll except for price gouging, which is a CEO thing. It’s an executive order issue. Always has been. Or private business doing so of their own volition, which some have done. But to ramp up production, to order it done, to get businesses such as GM to start making ventilators, that takes an executive order. Its called the Defense Production Act, which wasn’t invoked until recently. It’s not a union thing, it’s CEOs of companies asking the one who could use such powers, not to. Production didn’t start until late because this is what it took, and what it took didn’t happen back in January or February.

So you are saying there wasn't complete focus to the task at hand.

Community Moderator
Posted

So you are saying there wasn't complete focus to the task at hand.

From the top, yes I am. This has nothing to do with unions or the work force. They have no say in what is produced. Governors couldn’t order production. Production at times like this takes executive order. Once everything is in motion, yep, they will produce, provided there is enough of a healthy workforce. And are now. That red tape you mentioned could have been cut a lot sooner. And wasn’t.

Posted

From the top, yes I am. This has nothing to do with unions or the work force. They have no say in what is produced. Governors couldn’t order production. Production at times like this takes executive order. Once everything is in motion, yep, they will produce, provided there is enough of a healthy workforce. And are now. That red tape you mentioned could have been cut a lot sooner. And wasn’t.

Ok. So take the lack of actions from the very top that you reference and add the infrastructure problems that Sconnie referenced and that's the hill that needs to be climbed.

 

If 3M needs to work with Ford or GM or whoever. That might take some time sensitive coordination from a leader outside of 3M and GM.

 

Abbott laboratories created a 15 minute test. They can crank out X amount. Is that enough or does the production need to be shared with someone else to produce enough. I assume there are Patents involved and compensation for the sharing of proprietary information for the greater good of society to get someone else involved to ramp up production to suit the needs.

 

Forget my mention of Unions if it doesn't belong. But a unionized workforce has rules and regulations in place that could need to be addressed to maximize production from facilities producing.

 

Sconnie is right. This doesn't happen with a snap of the fingers. It takes complete focus on the task at hand, it takes sacrifice from a team pulling together and you are right... the team needs a QB.

 

But if we are placing all our hope in 3M and asking 3M to solve their infrastructure problems to help us survive without helping them by clearing obstacles that Sconnie mentioned. Yeah... it's going to take awhile.

 

This is what I mean by complete focus on the task at hand and what I mean by Its April.

Community Moderator
Posted

Ok. So take the lack of actions from the very top that you reference and add the infrastructure problems that Sconnie referenced and that's the hill that needs to be climbed.

If 3M needs to work with Ford or GM or whoever. That might take some time sensitive coordination from a leader outside of 3M and GM.

Abbott laboratories created a 15 minute test. They can crank out X amount. Is that enough or does the production need to be shared with someone else to produce enough. I assume there are Patents involved and compensation for the sharing of proprietary information for the greater good of society to get someone else involved to ramp up production to suit the needs.

Forget my mention of Unions if it doesn't belong. But a unionized workforce has rules and regulations in place that could need to be addressed to maximize production from facilities producing.

Sconnie is right. This doesn't happen with a snap of the fingers. It takes complete focus on the task at hand, it takes sacrifice from a team pulling together and you are right... the team needs a QB.

But if we are placing all our hope in 3M and asking 3M to solve their infrastructure problems to help us survive without helping them by clearing obstacles that Sconnie mentioned. Yeah... it's going to take awhile.

This is what I mean by complete focus on the task at hand and what I mean by Its April.

Brian, we are talking past one another here. Of course this all takes time. That wasn’t what I meant. This focus on production needed to happen back in Jan-Feb. we knew what was coming, and now we’ve created even more urgency that is costing us way more because we didn’t do exactly that. It starts with the top. I’m not the one saying it needs to happen quickly, you were, and sconnie corrected that. But the planning and time it takes to shift gears should have been happening sooner, in my very humble, and by no means expertise, opinion. And for that to happen sooner, it needed to come from an executive order and didn’t. By the time an executive order came through, places like GM were already making the shift. And yes, don’t add unions into the equation. Unions are, generally, concerned with things like working conditions and pay and they aren’t a hindrance in this particular situation. You are correct, it was a generalized statement that didn’t belong and am glad you have now walked that statement back. But ... an urgency was created because there was downplayed focus on this from the beginning. Yes, we’re ramping up ... now, and over the last couple of weeks ... but this urgency was created by not acting swiftly and decisively from the beginning. There is no way to quantify the cost in lives and in the economy by such a delay. There is no way to know. But in my opinion, seeing the differences in how this virus has affected other countries, there is a correlation between immediate focus and delayed focus. That delay started at the top. That’s my point. And now we wait. Will there be enough to go around? Will workable solutions be found? Time. But time was wasted at the start of this. Time we won’t get back. But time we still must allow.

 

And yes, I very much agree we need a QB. The one we have is fumbling the ball at every pass.

Posted

Brian, we are talking past one another here. Of course this all takes time. That wasn’t what I meant. This focus on production needed to happen back in Jan-Feb. we knew what was coming, and now we’ve created even more urgency that is costing us way more because we didn’t do exactly that. It starts with the top. I’m not the one saying it needs to happen quickly, you were, and sconnie corrected that. But the planning and time it takes to shift gears should have been happening sooner, in my very humble, and by no means expertise, opinion. And for that to happen sooner, it needed to come from an executive order and didn’t. By the time an executive order came through, places like GM were already making the shift. And yes, don’t add unions into the equation. Unions are, generally, concerned with things like working conditions and pay and they aren’t a hindrance in this particular situation. You are correct, it was a generalized statement that didn’t belong and am glad you have now walked that statement back. But ... an urgency was created because there was downplayed focus on this from the beginning. Yes, we’re ramping up ... now, and over the last couple of weeks ... but this urgency was created by not acting swiftly and decisively from the beginning. There is no way to quantify the cost in lives and in the economy by such a delay. There is no way to know. But in my opinion, seeing the differences in how this virus has affected other countries, there is a correlation between immediate focus and delayed focus. That delay started at the top. That’s my point. And now we wait. Will there be enough to go around? Will workable solutions be found? Time. But time was wasted at the start of this. Time we won’t get back. But time we still must allow.

We are talking past each other. I'm not comfortable with the free market system solving this. I'm not comfortable with states making individual uncoordintaded decisions.

 

I agree with Sconnie and just want to say that extroidanary events takes extroidanary action.

 

All the hurdles that need to be cleared will require elbow grease, bending of rules, a change from how things typically work and most importantly coordination with razor sharp focus.

 

Yes... we should have started earlier.

Community Moderator
Posted

We are talking past each other. I'm not comfortable with the free market system solving this. I'm not comfortable with states making individual uncoordintaded decisions.

I agree with Sconnie and just want to say that extroidanary events takes extroidanary action.

All the hurdles that need to be cleared will require elbow grease, bending of rules, a change from how things typically work and most importantly coordination with razor sharp focus.

Yes... we should have started earlier.

The role of the federal government IS to be that coordinator, to be the QB, to rally the troops, to focus, to order production, to organize and have a plan ... that is their role! There has been NO LEADERSHIP in this from the beginning. There was no focus, only downplaying. No qualified QB on the team. And where we are now is a result of the lackings shown from the top. Yes, it takes extraordinary action. Agreed. There was none and now we are trying to play catch up, but it takes time. Time is not on our side, but time is what it takes.

Community Moderator
Posted

New Zealand is crushing it. Swift and strict response for the entire country is showing results. Of course, they are a much, much smaller country, but the PM has a plan and is decisively enforcing it. Even though they are seeing good results, she is adamant at sticking to the 30-day strict plan, no talk of lifting it sooner. She wants to keep things sealed for two incubation periods. And for the most part, the people are, too. Part of the problem here is, well, as I’ve said before, leadership is one, but individually, some are not so strict about their participation in protocols laid out by their state governors. People, stay home! And despite tourism being NZ’s number one industry, they may keep their borders closed for some time, while loosening up restrictions little by little within, after the lock down is over. My sister is there currently ... she’s a visiting doctor on a 6-month contract, which is over at the end of the month. Her visa has already been extended if she chooses to ride out the worst there, or come home at the end of the month.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/new-zealand-isnt-just-flattening-the-curve-its-squashing-it/ar-BB12gstI

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