Keith Law's top 100 prospects

[Thrylos]

Only 3 Twins' players:

 

9. Alex Kirilloff OF
31. Royce Lewis, SS/OF
69. Jordan Balazovic, RHP

 

Graterol is not included either.

[nicksaviking]

Not surprised Duran isn't on the list, we've all talked about KLaw's aversion to pitchers with height issues, but he also seems more skeptical when it comes to command than most others. Which is probably a significantly more legit concern.

 

Surprised by Larnach though and obviously Kirilloff being top 10 is a shocker. When it comes to offensive players, KLaw seems as adamant as anyone about a prospect's need for defensive excellence. People had been knocking Kirilloff for his defense for a year or so now, but I never did hear where that came from, he never looked like a guy who'd struggle in the outfield, and going off of body type, it seemed like he'd be fine and it would be Larnach who might be a bit more lumbering. 

 

Then the original 1st spring training day schedule came out and it was Larnach at DH and Kirilloff in RF before Kirilloff was removed from the lineup. It was probably nothing to do with nothing, but maybe Kirilloff's defensive inadequacies were not only overstated but wholly inaccurate? KLaw say anything about that?

[NapoleonComplex]

I was surprised Law ranked Kirilloff in his top 10 considering his defensive profile. I'll take it though. Abundantly clear his bat is very, very special. I'm convinced Balazovic is going to be a consensus top 50 prospect when mid-year changes are made.

[NapoleonComplex]

What Law wrote about Kirilloff in the field is why i'm surprised he cracked the top 10. All he wrote is Kirilloff is average in right, with a solid-average arm...

 

That's it. The profile he wrote is all about his sweet swing, calling it the best swing in the minors. Hope I'm not giving away too much from content with a paywall.

[nicksaviking]

 

What Law wrote about Kirilloff in the field is why i'm surprised he cracked the top 10. All he wrote is Kirilloff is average in right, with a solid-average arm...

 

That's it. The profile he wrote is all about his sweet swing, calling it the best swing in the minors. Hope I'm not giving away too much from content with a paywall.

 

Paraphrasing is acceptable.

 

And welcome!

[gunnarthor]

I'm glad he's that excited about Kiriloff's bat. Should be a big year for him in AA. Maybe he cracks the majors.

[clutterheart]

Balazovic fell 25 spots from his '19 midseason list - Any reason for this fall?

 

Kirilloff went up 6

Lewis went up 3

 

 

[Seth Stohs]

 

Not surprised Duran isn't on the list, we've all talked about KLaw's aversion to pitchers with height issues, but he also seems more skeptical when it comes to command than most others. Which is probably a significantly more legit concern.

 

 

What is Duran's height issue? He's 6-5...

[Vanimal46]

I think KLaw’s write up about Lewis is fair given his struggles last year. Why the Twins haven’t worked with him more on cutting down the noise in his swing is beyond me.

[nicksaviking]

 

What is Duran's height issue? He's 6-5...

 

Perhaps I presented that poorly. I was suggesting that while folks around here often bring up KLaw's aversion to short pitchers, KLaw is even more skeptical about pitchers who still need to work on command, which is an issue that seems to be tied to Duran. Which is why I'm not surprised he is not on the list.

[jkcarew]

Only thing I can trace regarding issues with Kirilloff's "defensive profile"...is the fact that the Twins chose to play him at 1B for 35 games last year. I think a lot more has been read into that than probably should have been.

 

Still, I'm surprised Kirilloff made a significant move up anyone's list in the past season. Not that I would have expected him to take a dive in ranking, either. But, 2019 was mixed bag of nagging injuries and mediocre results. Of particular note, he took a significant step back in his power numbers.

[gunnarthor]

 

Only thing I can trace regarding issues with Kirilloff's "defensive profile"...is the fact that the Twins chose to play him at 1B for 35 games last year. I think a lot more has been read into that than probably should have been.

 

Still, I'm surprised Kirilloff made a significant move up anyone's list in the past season. Not that I would have expected him to take a dive in ranking, either. But, 2019 was mixed bag of nagging injuries and mediocre results. Of particular note, he took a significant step back in his power numbers.

I don't know but I wonder if Klaw gave extra weight to his last month or so when he was healthy. I don't have his stats with the playoffs but his last month or so, he really started hitting again.

[NapoleonComplex]

 

Surprised by Larnach though and obviously Kirilloff being top 10 is a shocker. When it comes to offensive players, KLaw seems as adamant as anyone about a prospect's need for defensive excellence. People had been knocking Kirilloff for his defense for a year or so now, but I never did hear where that came from, he never looked like a guy who'd struggle in the outfield, and going off of body type, it seemed like he'd be fine and it would be Larnach who might be a bit more lumbering. 

 

Then the original 1st spring training day schedule came out and it was Larnach at DH and Kirilloff in RF before Kirilloff was removed from the lineup. It was probably nothing to do with nothing, but maybe Kirilloff's defensive inadequacies were not only overstated but wholly inaccurate? KLaw say anything about that?

 

Madrigal didn't make Law's top 100 prospects. Maybe the problem isn't Larnach or Madrigal, maybe Law just doesn't like OSU.

[jimbo92107]

Logjam, logjam, logjam. Even if the new guys are really good, where will the Twins put them? 

[amjgt]

I wrote a question in the comments section of the article asking what he is hearing on Larnach that makes his opinion lower than the consensus. 

 

While Law usually is decent with fan interaction, it seems like it's usually on his terms (weekly Chats), so I'll be surprised if he answers it.

[jud6312]

Mr. Law is making no fans over on Twitter right now. People are asking him why guys like Nick Madrigal and Drew Waters didn't crack his Top 100 and - spoiler alert - he's being a Richard about it.

 

Although someone referred to his as the "Prospect Don" in a non-ironic way and I had a good laugh. I put literally zero stock in his takes.

[Vanimal46]

Mr. Law is making no fans over on Twitter right now. People are asking him why guys like Nick Madrigal and Drew Waters didn't crack his Top 100 and - spoiler alert - he's being a Richard about it.

 

Although someone referred to his as the "Prospect Don" in a non-ironic way and I had a good laugh. I put literally zero stock in his takes.

13 years in a row with 30 team’s fans claiming he hates their favorite team will make anyone jaded, I would imagine.

[jud6312]

 

13 years in a row with 30 team’s fans claiming he hates their favorite team will make anyone jaded, I would imagine.

 

He's also paid handsomely to do it. It comes with the territory.

 

And these were questions like, "why is your rating for Madrigal so much different than the BA, MLB and BP?" So, VERY far from personal attacks. 

 

Edit: he's not even answering questions, just broad, lame statements: "there are 100 better prospects," and "this is my original work."

 

If you want to be a "guru" and get paid to do it, the questions are going to come and you can't be a jerk to people when they ask.

[Vanimal46]

He's also paid handsomely to do it. It comes with the territory.

 

And these were questions like, "why is your rating for Madrigal so much different than the BA, MLB and BP?" So, VERY far from personal attacks.

 

Edit: he's not even answering questions, just broad, lame statements: "there are 100 better prospects," and "this is my original work."

 

If you want to be a "guru" and get paid to do it, the questions are going to come and you can't be a jerk to people when they ask.

The medium he’s using (Twitter) probably has something to do with saying broad statements and not going into detail. Perhaps he will address it on an upcoming chat.

 

And from what I’m reading on his Twitter page, people are upset because he’s not following other major publications. That’s also why he’s paid handsomely, because he has his own opinion and he takes chances. He didn’t have Graterol on his top 100 last year and that looks like the right call now. I’m sure he wasn’t a believer in a few players over the last 13 years and they proved him wrong.

[jud6312]

 

The medium he’s using (Twitter) probably has something to do with saying broad statements and not going into detail. Perhaps he will address it on an upcoming chat.

And from what I’m reading on his Twitter page, people are upset because he’s not following other major publications. That’s also why he’s paid handsomely, because he has his own opinion and he takes chances. He didn’t have Graterol on his top 100 last year and that looks like the right call now. I’m sure he wasn’t a believer in a few players over the last 13 years and they proved him wrong.

 

If it takes him more than 280 characters to not be an a-hole, he should learn how to write. It's possible, he's just not willing to do it. And, he's sort of an idiot from the stuff of his I've read.

[Dman]

Yeah not too surprised as Law has different bias's than most.  Generally I trust what he has to say.  Like everyone who projects prospects he isn't always right but most of the time I can see where he is coming from. 

 

Not surprised about Duran as there are definitely questions there yet.  Larnach is a bit of a surprise for me I mean he was the best the Florida league High A teams had to offer last year and he didn't have any trouble moving up a level either. 

 

As I look at more players though you can see there a lot of talented bats so defense is probably the only other way to distinguish yourself.  I personally think he is wrong about Larnach and selling him short but no worries Larnach will be good again this year no matter how Law feels about him.

[Vanimal46]

If it takes him more than 280 characters to not be an a-hole, he should learn how to write. It's possible, he's just not willing to do it. And, he's sort of an idiot from the stuff of his I've read.

To each their own. I don’t think he’s being an A-Hole about it. Nor am I trying to convince you he’s the best prospect evaluator. It’s simply just another data point. He’s getting heat from fans who think he needs to mirror other industry publications. Prospect evaluation would be pretty boring if every list was the same.

[Twins33]

 

Still, I'm surprised Kirilloff made a significant move up anyone's list in the past season. Not that I would have expected him to take a dive in ranking, either. But, 2019 was mixed bag of nagging injuries and mediocre results. Of particular note, he took a significant step back in his power numbers.

Would assume he’s giving him the benefit of the doubt. Wrist injuries tend to linger even when mild, especially impacts power numbers. 

[gunnarthor]

I like others more than Klaw but he's not an idiot. He writing style absolutely rubs people the wrong way and he's decided that's what he wants. So be it. I don't even know where he writes at anymore so I can go on without him in my life. 

 

I'm glad he's out there - he's a good voice on prospects - but he doesn't seem like a good guy in a field that generally seems pretty full of good guys. 

[nicksaviking]

 

If it takes him more than 280 characters to not be an a-hole, he should learn how to write. It's possible, he's just not willing to do it. And, he's sort of an idiot from the stuff of his I've read.

 

I don't understand what one has to do with the other. There are plenty of jerks who are good at their jobs; not saying Law is a jerk.

 

Keith Law writes prospect lists and The Athletic has comment sections. That doesn't mean Law has to like and want to put any effort into the comment section. Why don't you wait until his next chat to see if he'll provide more detail on the questions you feel are left unanswered?

 

Also, the weak and lazy lists are the ones that never stray more than ten or so spots from the "consensus" rankings. 

[Vanimal46]

 

Hmm, weird... But he didn’t go into detail about these people on Twitter!

[bird]

 

Logjam, logjam, logjam. Even if the new guys are really good, where will the Twins put them? 

 

 

On the market?

[bird]

I agree that Law is intentionally abrasive and combative at times and lets fans become irritants on occasion. But in all the years I've read his stuff, he's rarely lazy about it. Personally, I think he's exceptional. You can tell he's asking around and not just sitting in a cubicle pouring over data.

 

I just hope he's MUCH more right about Kirilloff and Madrigal than he is wrong about Larnach and Duran.

[jud6312]

 

Hmm, weird... But he didn’t go into detail about these people on Twitter!

 

As long as there's a follow-up then he was 100% justified in being a dismissive jerk to people that pay to read his work. 

[jud6312]

I mean, if I had a follow-up piece to the original one that was drawing attention and ire, I might tease the follow-up rather than telling people off. But that's just me. What do I know?