Donaldson contract discussion - 4/100? 4/110?

[KidBro]

 

I used specifics as illustration of a concept. The point being identifying the Morton type deals is even more important than signing the 5+ year guys. The track record of these FAs makes that quite clear. The argument was never the affordability of Donaldson. I posted a plan which clearly shows a budget capable of absorbing Donaldson. This whole line of debate for me is purely the ignorance associated with the dismissal of utilizing assessed value. The responses would suggest most respondents never actually considered what I was actually saying and rushed to conclusion I must be dismissing the viability of signing Donaldson when I never once even offered an opinion. I don't think it matters if they they can't find a way to add impact pitching but I would support adding him at 4/90 or less.

 

And front load the contract, which the Twins can absorb (specifically this year, and likely next), which also should be attractive to the player.  It creates the FO a bit more financial flexibility in years 3 and 4 (which I highly support the FO having payroll flexibility).  2022, and 2023 should have the next wave of talent entering the fold on the MLB team.  If history is of any indication, there are some growing pains w/ Twins rookies/2nd year players.  No guarantee Twins are competitive (at least in terms of unseating NYY).  So it does create JD to be more attractive to other teams, if the Twins are not competitive and we are looking for a prospect return.  

 

Still need to trade for a SP, and idc if they wait until June/July, 4 NL East teams can't all make the playoffs.  

[Otto von Ballpark]

I used specifics as illustration of a concept. The point being identifying the Morton type deals is even more important than signing the 5+ year guys. The track record of these FAs makes that quite clear. The argument was never the affordability of Donaldson. I posted a plan which clearly shows a budget capable of absorbing Donaldson. This whole line of debate for me is purely the ignorance associated with the dismissal of utilizing assessed value. The responses would suggest most respondents never actually considered what I was actually saying and rushed to conclusion I must be dismissing the viability of signing Donaldson when I never once even offered an opinion. I don't think it matters if they they can't find a way to add impact pitching but I would support adding him at 4/90 or less.

If you're responding to people making points in a Donaldson thread, and completely ignoring the context of the Donaldson discussion, perhaps you aren't the one who should be accusing others of ignorance.

 

As a mod, this is a warning to everyone to keep things on track. Discuss Donaldson, not other posters, and not generic ideas that have nothing to do with Donaldson.

[Major League Ready]

 

If you're responding to people making points in a Donaldson thread, and completely ignoring the context of the Donaldson discussion, perhaps you aren't the one who should be accusing others of ignorance.

As a mod, this is a warning to everyone to keep things on track. Discuss Donaldson, not other posters, and not generic ideas that have nothing to do with Donaldson.

 

I did not start the tangent. I responded to their assertion that assessed value is "silly" and other more colorful descriptions. If the critique and assumed expertise in valuation methodology is relevant so is the rebuttal.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I did not start the tangent. I responded to their assertion that assessed value is "silly" and other more colorful descriptions. If the critique and assumed expertise in valuation methodology is relevant so is the rebuttal.

No one here was denying any universal concept of valuation. It was relative to Donaldson, the subject of this thread, and that the Twins might be clinging too tightly to their assessed value of $85 mil compared to, say, $100 mil, in the context of their needs and available resources.

 

Their replies likely made no sense to you because they were staying on topic, while your posts and points were not.

 

Now let's stick to the topic of Donaldson, please.

[Squirrel]

Topic is topic ... off topic is off topic. We’ve meandered around, mostly in circles, so, enough ... ALL parties involved. You needn’t respond to EVERY comment, especially more generalized or tangential comments, unless it pertains to Donaldson directly. I think there is really little else to say here, until there is more news, so let’s move on. If you want a more generalized discussion on value and spending and whatnot, please, PLEASE, start your own thread or write a blog. But don’t drag every thread down the path of your own topics ... please.

[bunsen82]

 

I would say the Twins are the high bidder by a reasonable amount, and they feel comfortable that they will ultimately have the highest bid and get him.  Ultimately I would say we are #3 on Donaldson's wish list so the money is going to have to win out.  We will see but I think he will sign elsewhere.  The longer this drags out, the better chance we have of signing him. 

Not to gloat, but appears I was right on with my assessment.  This is exactly how this played out.  

[AlwaysinModeration]

Looking at the stat cast leaderboard of hard hit balls in 2019, limiting to players with at least 100 “events”, here is the top 10 average exit velocity:

 

1. Judge, 96.7mph

2. Gallo, 96.2

3. Sano, 95.2

4. Cruz, 94.5

5. Schwarber, 94.5

6. Donaldson, 94.0

7. Yelich, 93.9

8. Fr. Reyes, 93.8

9. Stanton, 93.8

10. Moncada, 93.6

Twins now have #3, #4, and #6 on this list.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Looking at Donaldson’s stats are remarkable. He’s posted an 883 OPS or above five out of the last seven seasons. He’s posted WAR of 5 or above in six of the last seven seasons, and 6+ WAR in five of the last seven seasons, including last year. (Sano has zero; his max WAR is 3.1.)

 

Trying to figure out a reasonable contract for him, if he is a 4 WAR player going forward, which seems conservative, the standard calculations for a player are to expect a 0.5 WAR decline per year. So four years equals 4+3.5+3+2.5=13 WAR. At $9mm per WAR, a contract should be 4/117mm. At a more conservative $8mm/WAR, his contract would be 4/104.

 

MLBTradeRumors projected him to get 3/75. He’s made $23/year the last two years. 23x4=92, so maybe the Twins have offered him a 4/92 contract.

 

I’ll note that the Twins signed what turned out to be the best hitter of the offseason last year at about this time, an old guy who hits the ball extremely hard, who the Twins weren’t expected to sign (or outbid other teams for). Could history repeat itself?

This was from Jan 2.

 

I think the only thing left to ask is who is more productive in 2020, Anthony Rendon or Josh Donaldson?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Not to gloat, but appears I was right on with my assessment.  This is exactly how this played out.  

Except for the "he will sign elsewhere" part.

 

Also not clear yet that we were "the high bidder by a reasonable amount" back on Jan. 2nd. Could be we were just in the mix then, but we were also the only one willing to meet Donaldson in the middle to actually get a deal done.

 

Washington, for example, could have been right there with us on Jan. 2nd, with little or no deferred money (like the Corbin deal last winter), but they didn't have much incentive to go higher after their other infield signings. Especially if the Braves offer was lagging behind, as reports suggested -- part of the hypothetical benefit for Washington would have been keeping him from the Braves, and that looked less likely as this dragged out with the Braves as relatively passive participants in the bidding.

[bunsen82]

 

Except for the "he will sign elsewhere" part.

 

Also not clear yet that we were "the high bidder by a reasonable amount" back on Jan. 2nd. Could be we were just in the mix then, but we were also the only one willing to meet Donaldson in the middle to actually get a deal done.

 

 

 

Spycake, true, that was the only thing that was slightly off, but I did hedge that by saying the longer this goes the more likely he is a Twin. 

 

I would say as cash value goes the Twins were the high bidder by a reasonable amount.  I don't believe we increased the offer, drastically, maybe adding 8 million in an essential an option year from a previous 92 million offer for for years, so Donaldson can say the contract is for a 100 million.  My guess is this deal has been essential the same.  My guess is Washington, which we know had an offer of 100 million was probably worth about 80 -85 million with deferred money.  I am guessing Atlanta wasn't even close to 80 million.  That was his preferred destination at the start of free agency, but money spoke and I think the Twins do show as a good opportunity and place that he can win at.  I also think the Twins likely stated if you don't take our offer now, we are pursuing other opportunities and Atlanta was never willing to step up, and Washington had already essentially dropped out. 
 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I would say as cash value goes the Twins were the high bidder by a reasonable amount.  I don't believe we increased the offer, drastically, maybe adding 8 million in an essential an option year from a previous 92 million offer for for years, so Donaldson can say the contract is for a 100 million.  My guess is this deal has been essential the same.  My guess is Washington, which we know had an offer of 100 million was probably worth about 80 -85 million with deferred money.  I am guessing Atlanta wasn't even close to 80 million.

It's all pretty much guesswork, but it's still quite possible that Doogie's $80-85 mil / not the high bidder speculation was correct on Jan. 2nd. I don't think teams often increase their bid, but they absolutely meet in the middle if a player comes to them ready to sign an agreement. That's what happened with Bumgarner and Arizona, and I'm guessing that's what happened with Donaldson and how we ended up at $92 mil, as opposed to saying the Twins offer has been at $92 mil guaranteed the whole time. (I'd guess that contracts very rarely end up at the original guaranteed offer, for deals of this magnitude -- there's pretty much always some compromise involved, more than just phantom option money.)

 

I don't think the Nats offering $100 mil was ever solidly reported either. The same reports seemed to have the Twins and Braves close to $100 mil which we know wasn't true or Donaldson would be in Atlanta now. The Nats could have been in the $85 mil range like us, minimally deferred, just with less interest in compromising to get a deal done once Atlanta was out of the picture and other infielders were signed.

 

But it's all guesswork, at this point. Hopefully some insights about the process trickle out over the coming days -- and hopefully Donaldson hits as well *for* us as he has *against* us!

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just testing some forum changes, nothing to see here.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Just testing some forum changes, nothing to see here.

Wait, so we didn't actually sign Donaldson? It was just a test?

[DocBauer]

Sat down and read about 6 pages of comments leading up to the signing. Kudos to everyone for some very smart debates, even if they were all over the place, lol.

 

Not directed at anyone in particular, so dont read anything in to it, but I do think a lot of opinions were born of desperation and misguided opinion. The Twins, in retrospect, were "in" on Donaldson. Some of us believed their offer was actually a top bid. And a fair bid, which shouldn't be discounted.

 

I posted earlier I didn't buy their $85M ish bid as I felt basic logic made it closer to $88-92 per. Did they bump a little as I suggested they also do to get it done? We will never know.

 

But I'd like to think that this signing proves the FO is much more aggressive than anything we have seen before. And maybe now that we have seen the results of this off season, and the Donaldson signing, plus the work they have done to this point for this team, maybe some of the "no way ever" and "cheap" offer rhetoric suggestions can instead be replaced with simple belief they have a plan. And that plan is to be aggressive when and where it makes sense. And sometimes, it either doesn't make sense or just doesn't work out.

 

Just $.02 to consider.

[AlwaysinModeration]

We now know, after Phil Miller’s piece. They were at and stayed at 4/84, but he wanted 100. So they budged, added 8 more guaranteed as a part of the 5th year for 16, and that got it across the finish line. Along with a push from Mardy Fish and Miguel Sano. Nice job, Mardy and Miguel!

[ewen21]

I was suggesting Donaldson probably wanted to stay/play in Atlanta because it made sense to me that he wanted to finish his career near home. He had a great year there last season so I felt he probably would lean toward sticking with that setup because it worked.

 

That pull wasn’t so strong and it appears that 8 or 10 million extra moved the needle. I also insisted that wouldn’t be enough for top players earning nine figure or close to it the be swayed. I was wrong.

 

I hope to be wrong again regarding the risk behind signing a 34 year old go to be an everyday position player. If he gets injured for an extended period of time this year the deal turns into a disaster. As it stands now I am pleased to have Donaldson. My eyes are wide open, though. He’s going to need to perform this year.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

We now know, after Phil Miller’s piece. They were at and stayed at 4/84, but he wanted 100. So they budged, added 8 more guaranteed as a part of the 5th year for 16, and that got it across the finish line. Along with a push from Mardy Fish and Miguel Sano. Nice job, Mardy and Miguel!

The Strib article is paywalled I assume, but the MLBTR synopsis here has plenty of juicy nuggets.