Twins Showing "Strong" Interest in Bumgarner

[ScooterDance]

Tigers asking for similar return for Boyd to what the White Sox got for Quintana. 

Top 10 (national) prospect - Cubs #1 prospect
Another top 100 (national) prospect - Cubs #2 prospect
Two non-prospects (not on Cubs top 40)
 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/06/matthew-boyd-trade-rumors-tigers.html

So you're looking at one of Lewis or Kiriloff, Graterol, and some depth.

[howeda7]

 

why is a rebuilding team trading for him then?

 

Chicks dig the long ball?

 

All it takes is them believing they can fix him. The upside is still there, if fading. And we're talking about getting a rental for him. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Tigers asking for similar return for Boyd to what the White Sox got for Quintana. 

Top 10 (national) prospect - Cubs #1 prospect
Another top 100 (national) prospect - Cubs #2 prospect
Two non-prospects (not on Cubs top 40)
 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/06/matthew-boyd-trade-rumors-tigers.html

So you're looking at one of Lewis or Kiriloff, Graterol, and some depth.

and to that I say... done.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Tigers asking for similar return for Boyd to what the White Sox got for Quintana. 

Top 10 (national) prospect - Cubs #1 prospect
Another top 100 (national) prospect - Cubs #2 prospect
Two non-prospects (not on Cubs top 40)
 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/06/matthew-boyd-trade-rumors-tigers.html

So you're looking at one of Lewis or Kiriloff, Graterol, and some depth.

FWIW, that "top 100" Cubs prospect (Cease) turned into a top 20-40 prospect within a year of the trade (he's up to #18 on MLB's list right now). So it's quite possible that the White Sox didn't value him as simply a "top 100" guy, and possibly even better than Graterol right now even though Graterol is still ranked #50 but on the shelf.

 

Which highlights a tricky part of coming up with a comparable package. What we see as ranked 7 and 50 might be viewed by another team as very different, perhaps even lower than guys we see as 15/75 or whatever, or even a 3 player package like 30/60/90, etc. (Lewis, Kirilloff, and Graterol haven't exactly helped with their health/performance this year either -- they're obviously still good and valuable, of course, but there's a little more doubt about their rankings, and a little less confidence that they would be the top prospects targeted by another club.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Chicks dig the long ball?

 

All it takes is them believing they can fix him. The upside is still there, if fading. And we're talking about getting a rental for him. 

By the time the Giants could fix him, Sano might be little more than a rental himself. I think they can aim for longer-term assets right now.

[gagu]

"darin617, on 26 Jun 2019 - 8:44 PM, said:

What have been MadBum's numbers in interleague in AL parks?"

 

Inter-League totals

W 10 L 10  3.65 ERA  27 G, 3 CG,  175.0 Inn, 165 hits, 15 HR, 44 BB, 165 K, 1.194 WHIP

 

vs Twins, 11.05 ERA, 7 innings

vs HOU, 2.06 ERA, 43.2 innings

vs NYY,  4.97 ERA, 12.2 innings 

 

Inter-League totals in AL ballparks

W 4 L 8  5.87 ERA  16 G, 2 CG,  98.2 Inn, 114 hits, 13 HR, 27 BB, 89 K, 1.194 WHIP 1.424

 

at OAK   6.30 ERA, 30 innings

at SEA   1.69, 16 innings

at KC     2.57, 14 innings

at DET   2.70, 13.1 innings

at TB     1.29,  7 innings 

at TEX   7.71,  7 innings

at NYY   2.57,  7 innings

at HOU   8.10,  6.2 innings

at CWS  10.80, 5 innings

 

He has yet to pitch in Target Field

[ScooterDance]

 

FWIW, that "top 100" Cubs prospect (Cease) turned into a top 20-40 prospect within a year of the trade (he's up to #18 on MLB's list right now). So it's quite possible that the White Sox didn't value him as simply a "top 100" guy, and possibly even better than Graterol right now even though Graterol is still ranked #50 but on the shelf.

 

Which highlights a tricky part of coming up with a comparable package. What we see as ranked 7 and 50 might be viewed by another team as very different, perhaps even lower than guys we see as 15/75 or whatever, or even a 3 player package like 30/60/90, etc. (Lewis, Kirilloff, and Graterol haven't exactly helped with their health/performance this year either -- they're obviously still good and valuable, of course, but there's a little more doubt about their rankings, and a little less confidence that they would be the top prospects targeted by another club.)

Yeah good take. My feeling, especially with our top 3 struggling and / or hurt, is that our 3rd piece might have to be more than org filler, given the struggles / injuries of our top 3.

More than anything, it provides a wee bit of context into what it might take relative to previous trades.

[Doomtints]

Bumgarner is a FA after this year. Wherever he goes, the Giants will get little to nothing in return and they'll like it unless the trade includes a new contract.

 

Boyd is a #3 pitcher at best. I can't imagine the Twins tossing around prospects like the Cults did with Quintana. The Twins need to think about pitching beyond 2019, but so do the Tigers, and their pitching depth is even worse.

[nokomismod]

My chili would get pretty hot with this trade. I know there is a bit of mythology surrounding Bumgarner and the Twins or another team would be paying for past results, but he has a powerful build with a good clean delivery. I like the chances of him being strong down the strethc and being cool/clutch in the playoffs. Count me in on him as a very nice addition to the rotation.

[nokomismod]

 

yeah, it's Minny that would be hesitant... after all, it will be their prospects terrorizing them down the road.

 

Sorry I had to report this post to the moderator (perhaps you). 

Seeing the word Minny on this board-not good!

[nicksaviking]

I wonder how low Pittsburgh would sell on Archer. He’s not for everyone, but looking at his pitch usage immediately upon his arrival in Pittsburgh on August 3rd of last year, I think we can identify a correlation to his terribleness if not the cause itself. It looks like he’s starting to de-sinker-ize himself already.

[Shaitan]

 

I wonder how low Pittsburgh would sell on Archer. He’s not for everyone, but looking at his pitch usage immediately upon his arrival in Pittsburgh on August 3rd of last year, I think we can identify a correlation to his terribleness if not the cause itself. It looks like he’s starting to de-sinker-ize himself already.

 

I wouldn't make an in-season trade for a project unless it's the 8th man in the bullpen.

[SomeGuy]

I prefer Zach Wheeler to Bumgarner.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I prefer Zach Wheeler to Bumgarner.

 

I gave up my Athletic subscription, but I know Eno just wrote about him.....if you have one.

[darin617]

 

Exactly the same as yours and mine this season.  He has not pitched a game in an AL park.

 

I should have phrased it " what are his numbers against teams with DH's"

 

That has to make a difference for sure.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Bumgarner is a FA after this year. Wherever he goes, the Giants will get little to nothing in return and they'll like it unless the trade includes a new contract.

 

Boyd is a #3 pitcher at best. I can't imagine the Twins tossing around prospects like the Cults did with Quintana. The Twins need to think about pitching beyond 2019, but so do the Tigers, and their pitching depth is even worse.

 

You have an odd definition of a #3.

 

Among starting pitchers in all of MLB as of June 28:

 

WAR - 2.6 (14th overall)

K/9 - 11.42 (6th)

WHIP - 1.09 (15th)

ERA - 3.72 (28th)

IP  - 101.2 (13th)

HR/9 - 1.5 (61st) really his only bad trait

BB/9 - 1.77 (12th)

BABIP - .298 (44th)

 

He's not an ace, but he's pitching like a number 1 (top 30 pitcher without question). He's 28 and he's under control for 3 more seasons on top of this one. For those follow his minor league numbers, he was pretty stellar there too. This is a guy you open the farm for. 

 

To Spycake's point, I certainly understand if Detroit isn't willing to trade him or if what we have is not what they value, but they won't be competitive in the next 3 years, and picking up 2 top 100 prospects (presumably), plus at least one more decent prospect in our top 20 and losing more games allowing them to pick higher the next couple seasons... well... they should be shopping him. This would jump start their farm. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I wouldn't make an in-season trade for a project unless it's the 8th man in the bullpen.

 

I'd rather not trade for a project. We have plenty of them here.

[Doomtints]

 

You have an odd definition of a #3.

 

Among starting pitchers in all of MLB as of June 28:

 

WAR - 2.6 (14th overall)

K/9 - 11.42 (6th)

WHIP - 1.09 (15th)

ERA - 3.72 (28th)

IP  - 101.2 (13th)

HR/9 - 1.5 (61st) really his only bad trait

BB/9 - 1.77 (12th)

BABIP - .298 (44th)

 

He's not an ace, but he's pitching like a number 1 (top 30 pitcher without question). He's 28 and he's under control for 3 more seasons on top of this one. For those follow his minor league numbers, he was pretty stellar there too. This is a guy you open the farm for. 

 

To Spycake's point, I certainly understand if Detroit isn't willing to trade him or if what we have is not what they value, but they won't be competitive in the next 3 years, and picking up 2 top 100 prospects (presumably), plus at least one more decent prospect in our top 20 and losing more games allowing them to pick higher the next couple seasons... well... they should be shopping him. This would jump start their farm. 

 

I have the standard definition of a #3. You are looking at periphery stats. Take a look at his ERA+, or his actual performance compared to other pitchers in the league.

To save you time, his career ERA+ is 92 over 103 starts.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I have the standard definition of a #3. You are looking at periphery stats. Take a look at his ERA+, or his actual performance compared to other pitchers in the league.

To save you time, his career ERA+ is 92 over 103 starts.

 

I'm not sure you should be using career numbers when he hasn't spent 3 full seasons in majors. Pitchers do take lumps when the get called up.

 

And his xfip and fip are both lower than his ERA, and he's sitting a 127 ERA+ so far this year.

 

and he's on the market.

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-trade-rumors-tigers-set-asking-price-for-starter-matthew-boyd/kmadbmowh11j1ee74iyca4nm0