Twins Need Sellers

[Doomtints]

 

I think the Mets are going to get rid of the manager first and see if that provides a spark. I stumbled upon this on Twitter... It's a circus in Mets land.

https://twitter.com/DeeshaThosar/status/1142915572222611456?s=19

 

The word right now is Callaway's job is safe ... but I imagine this could change very quickly, even by the end of the day.

 

Whatever happens to Callaway, I think Vargas's behavior needs to be looked at.

[Riverbrian]

Sure, but what assets will they actually be selling for reasonable returns that will interest the Twins? Keep in mind, all 3 of these teams are already invested in contending in 2020 too.

 

I see Wheeler from the Mets as an interesting expiring contract. Maybe Doolittle from the Nats if they decide to sell his last 1.5 years of control. Nicasio from the Phillies... maybe Alvarez...

Agreed. The teams that might become sellers. Will they?

 

The Nats and Mets are potential tweaks away for 2020. The Angels just don’t sell... they keep trying to plug holes. The Padres and White Sox are plenty young already and will be looking to Add.

 

I could see the Pirates become sellers.

 

Who knows but it’s looking like we might end up short on sellers and heavy on buyers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think there are more sellers. With the current sudden-death wildcard format, no team in its right mind is going to push on for a wild card berth. Pushing for 87 wins and the bottom playoff seed would be ridiculous. A wild card game on the road adds little to nothing to the owner's coffers.

 

1) If a team is in this range and can give up a pitcher to fill a hole at some other position, I think a smart team makes that deal. And heck, this could help them in the current year.

 

2) If a team is in this range and has a chance to get an impact player for next year while unloading salary or a future free agent, I think a smart team makes this deal too.

You're assuming that the first wild card is all wrapped up, which isn't nearly the case yet. Every team in the NL (except those already mentioned as clear sellers) is still within 5 games of the first wild card. Even in the AL everyone is within 5 games too except for LAA (6.5) and CWS (7.5).

 

Undoubtedly, some of those teams will turn to sell by the end of July, but right now, most of them probably want to see how the next few weeks shake out.

 

And of course, there's a difference between not buying and selling aggressively too. If teams decide not to "push" but are only willing to sell their versions of Jaime Garcia and Brandon Kintzler, I'm not sure that helps the Twins a whole lot either.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

 The Angels just don’t sell... they keep trying to plug holes. 

You know the Angels have Buttrey now only because they decided to sell Kinsler at the 2018 deadline? They also got an interesting lefty pitching prospect for Martin Maldonado last year too. (Their #7 prospect at Fangraphs, and one of their primary infielders this season, Luis Rengifo, is a product of trading CJ Cron the previous offseason as well.)

 

They made a small sell trade at the 2017 deadline, dealing reliever David Hernandez for their current #20 prospect Luis Madero, in addition to buying relatively cheaply on Justin Upton.

 

They made a pair of minor sell-type deals at the 2016 deadline too, when they dealt Hector Santiago for Alex Meyer, and also dealt reliever Joe Smith for a prospect.

 

That's some type of sell component of every Angels deadline since they changed GMs in 2015.

 

The Angels problem has more been a lack of sellable assets rather than an unwillingness to sell. Most every shorter-term guy they've had has seemingly seen his performance crater and/or gotten hurt. Tommy La Stella this year seems to be the exception that proves the rule!

[Doomtints]

 

You're assuming that the first wild card is all wrapped up, which isn't nearly the case yet. Every team in the NL (except those already mentioned as clear sellers) is still within 5 games of the first wild card. Even in the AL everyone is within 5 games too except for LAA (6.5) and CWS (7.5).

 

Undoubtedly, some of those teams will turn to sell by the end of July, but right now, most of them probably want to see how the next few weeks shake out.

 

And of course, there's a difference between not buying and selling aggressively too. If teams decide not to "push" but are only willing to sell their versions of Jaime Garcia and Brandon Kintzler, I'm not sure that helps the Twins a whole lot either.

 

I don't think a team should ever put a wild card berth over building for the future. If you have 98 wins and end up in a wild card game, take that as you will, but a sub-90 win team should never, ever shoot for the moon to get into a WC playoff. Teams in this range should be planning for the upcoming year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I don't think a team should ever put a wild card berth over building for the future. If you have 98 wins and end up in a wild card game, take that as you will, but a sub-90 win team should never, ever shoot for the moon to get into a WC playoff. Teams in this range should be planning for the upcoming year.

"Not selling" or "not aggressively selling" is hardly "shooting for the moon." Especially not on June 24th.

 

No one denies that there will be more teams selling by the end of July than the aforementioned 7, but they're not selling today and may not sell aggressively by the end of July either (i.e. we can't necessarily count on another Pressly trade).

[Doomtints]

If the Twins still had Pressly, they would be indisputably the best team in the AL right now.

[Danchat]

If the Twins still had Pressly, they would be indisputably the best team in the AL right now.

Methinks they need another good starter to be “indisputably” the best.

[Doomtints]

 

Methinks they need another good starter to be “indisputably” the best.

 

Why? They have four (or 3.5 if you're nitpicky). The #5 is almost always an AAAA dude. The Astros also have four and I'm thinking they're not too worried.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Potential sellers that could come out of the woodwork in the next 2-3 weeks:

1 or 2 of San Diego, Colorado, Arizona. Being stuck in .500 land is tough as we all know.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Washington Nationals

 

Nationals next 12 games are against: KC, MIA, and Tigers. I bet they become buyers. But the rest? Sure.

[cmoss84]

Outside the box trade question regarding the Giants:

 

Would you take on Longoria (play part time/bat off of the bench, veteran leadership, yada yada yada) to lower the price of Bumgarner and or Smith/Dyson?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Outside the box trade question regarding the Giants:

 

Would you take on Longoria (play part time/bat off of the bench, veteran leadership, yada yada yada) to lower the price of Bumgarner and or Smith/Dyson?

 

If I did I'd just DFA him. There isn't room on the bench for him. If I'm the rather wealthy Giants, I want better players, not more money.....

[Vanimal46]

Outside the box trade question regarding the Giants:

 

Would you take on Longoria (play part time/bat off of the bench, veteran leadership, yada yada yada) to lower the price of Bumgarner and or Smith/Dyson?

Nah... Why can't the Twins afford the prospect price of rental players like Bumgarner and Smith?

[cmoss84]

 

Nah... Why can't the Twins afford the prospect price of rental players like Bumgarner and Smith?

They absolutely can...but this might be a way to give up 5-10 prospects instead of 1-5 ones. But yes, agreed. 

[Vanimal46]

They absolutely can...but this might be a way to give up 5-10 prospects instead of 1-5 ones. But yes, agreed.

Taking on ~$25 million in salary seems like a steep price to pay for giving up slightly less good prospects. Especially if Longoria is only viewed as a bench bat veteran presence.

[cmoss84]

 

Taking on ~$25 million in salary seems like a steep price to pay for giving up slightly less good prospects. Especially if Longoria is only viewed as a bench bat veteran presence.

My thoughts were he would start about 1/2 games this year and come off the bench the other 1/2. Then trade him in the offseason for peanuts. But probably would not work. 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

You know the Angels have Buttrey now only because they decided to sell Kinsler at the 2018 deadline? They also got an interesting lefty pitching prospect for Martin Maldonado last year too. (Their #7 prospect at Fangraphs, and one of their primary infielders this season, Luis Rengifo, is a product of trading CJ Cron the previous offseason as well.)

 

They made a small sell trade at the 2017 deadline, dealing reliever David Hernandez for their current #20 prospect Luis Madero, in addition to buying relatively cheaply on Justin Upton.

 

They made a pair of minor sell-type deals at the 2016 deadline too, when they dealt Hector Santiago for Alex Meyer, and also dealt reliever Joe Smith for a prospect.

 

That's some type of sell component of every Angels deadline since they changed GMs in 2015.

 

The Angels problem has more been a lack of sellable assets rather than an unwillingness to sell. Most every shorter-term guy they've had has seemingly seen his performance crater and/or gotten hurt. Tommy La Stella this year seems to be the exception that proves the rule!

 

Agreed

 

They have moved some pieces around. I'm sure they'd love to move Harvey and Cahill this year for obvious reasons... And I'm sure they will try and move Lucroy. All 3 have expiring contracts. 

 

But... would they move Calhoun with a Club Option if they fell out of contention they year? Would they move a long term asset like Buttrey for prospects? I don't know but it feels like a no based on past history and the long term presence of Trout. 

 

I have my doubts that they'd strip it down. Would they consider eating some money to make Upton available for youth in return. 

 

They just consistently act like a franchise that wouldn't even consider hitting the reset button and with Trout under contract... trying to reload each year seems like their chosen operational style. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Agreed

 

They have moved some pieces around. I'm sure they'd love to move Harvey and Cahill this year for obvious reasons... And I'm sure they will try and move Lucroy. All 3 have expiring contracts. 

 

But... would they move Calhoun with a Club Option if they fell out of contention they year? Would they move a long term asset like Buttrey for prospects? I don't know but it feels like a no based on past history and the long term presence of Trout. 

 

I have my doubts that they'd strip it down. Would they consider eating some money to make Upton available for youth in return. 

 

They just consistently act like a franchise that wouldn't even consider hitting the reset button and with Trout under contract... trying to reload each year seems like their chosen operational style. 

They will absolutely move Calhoun if anyone wants to buy him. They'd likewise deal Upton if the return outweighed the cash they'd have to eat. With his contract up after 2020, Simmons will be on the block soon too once he returns if they fall out of the race.

 

Why tear it down to the extent of dealing Buttrey? I mean, I guess if someone is willing to give up a huge prospect package for him, but that's unlikely.

 

They've got Trout; they've got Ohtani; they've got Simmons. They have some controllable relievers, they have prospects Adell, Canning, Suarez.

 

They're far from perfect but I hardly see how tearing it down at this point helps them.

[Riverbrian]

 

Why? They have four (or 3.5 if you're nitpicky). The #5 is almost always an AAAA dude. The Astros also have four and I'm thinking they're not too worried.

 

We have 3.5 now. "Now" is the key word. It might be less in August. 

 

I'm guessing that the Astros are not comfortable either and they even have McHugh coming off the DL real soon.

 

We just might see them involved in Stroman trade discussions right along with us. They also have 3 starting pitchers set to hit free agency (Cole, Peacock and Miley). If they pick up Stroman... they get a spot for next year filled and they can move Peacock back to the bullpen for the stretch run this year.  

[Riverbrian]

 

They will absolutely move Calhoun if anyone wants to buy him. They'd likewise deal Upton if the return outweighed the cash they'd have to eat. With his contract up after 2020, Simmons will be on the block soon too once he returns if they fall out of the race.

 

Why tear it down to the extent of dealing Buttrey? I mean, I guess if someone is willing to give up a huge prospect package for him, but that's unlikely.

 

They've got Trout; they've got Ohtani; they've got Simmons. They have some controllable relievers, they have prospects Adell, Canning, Suarez.

 

They're far from perfect but I hardly see how tearing it down at this point helps them.

 

More financial flexibility plus the subsequent roster spots that become available to more affordable talent is why I would tear it down to the edges of Trout/Ohtani. 

 

If they move Calhoun, Upton and Simmons. That's a pretty significant step toward a tear down.

 

If they can't move Calhoun, Upton and Simmons (even if they wanted to). That's being stuck with limited financial flexibility and they are back to shopping for the next Matt Harvey and Cody Allen in the off-season. Just like they do every year and it bites them every time. 

 

Buttrey? I agree moving him is unlikely... I'm just trying to come up with something that they could trade for significant value in return. La Stella? 

 

I'd tear it down. 

[DiscGolfer]

 

I think 1 or 2 of Nationals, Mets and Phillies will throw up the white flag by the all star break.

 

I don't see the Phillies becoming sellers after all of their big moves and statements this year.    If that team starts selling this year I could see that fan base burning the city to the ground.

[DiscGolfer]

I'd like to see a deal done with Toronto for Stroman and Giles, nice to have 2 controllable assets in line for next year.  What are Toronto's biggest needs? 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

More financial flexibility plus the subsequent roster spots that become available to more affordable talent is why I would tear it down to the edges of Trout/Ohtani. 

It's sort of a catch-22. The only guys who could bring back affordable talent are already affordable talent themselves (Buttrey, Canning, etc.). You're just spinning your wheels if you trade that.

 

It's not like they've been sitting on good assets and letting them expire -- their assets have all just comprehensively sucked or gotten hurt. I am sure the Angels would have loved to trade Shoemaker or Richards at some point before they hit FA -- but both of those guys were injured for pretty much their entire last 3 years before FA. And Skaggs, and Heaney... there's not much you can do when that happens except weather the storm.

 

 

If they can't move Calhoun, Upton and Simmons (even if they wanted to). That's being stuck with limited financial flexibility and they are back to shopping for the next Matt Harvey and Cody Allen in the off-season. Just like they do every year and it bites them every time. 

Yet we applaud the Twins for getting Castro, Schoop, Marwin, Pineda, Perez, etc. in this price range or lower.

 

The Angels struggles in FA are not due to any limitation of payroll. They're only at $158 mil, in a huge market, with the most recent $43 mil sunk on Cahill, Harvey, Allen, and Cozart. The Angels just need to sign better players. If the current FO can't do that, I don't want them to tear things down or give them more financial flexibility -- I want a new FO.

 

(And FWIW, the Angels did change their FO in late 2015. Given what they were tasked to do -- completely rebuild the farm and work under the shadow of the Pujols, Hamilton, Weaver, and Wilson deals -- I think they've done enough to at least finish their 5 year plan, which would take them through 2020 and give them a chance to see Ohtani back on the mound and deploy some of the young players they've collected the past few years.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'd like to see a deal done with Toronto for Stroman and Giles, nice to have 2 controllable assets in line for next year.  What are Toronto's biggest needs? 

Top pitching prospects near MLB?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Outside the box trade question regarding the Giants:

 

Would you take on Longoria (play part time/bat off of the bench, veteran leadership, yada yada yada) to lower the price of Bumgarner and or Smith/Dyson?

The price would have to bottom out to take on that contract.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Outside the box trade question regarding the Giants:

 

Would you take on Longoria (play part time/bat off of the bench, veteran leadership, yada yada yada) to lower the price of Bumgarner and or Smith/Dyson?

In addition to what others have said, the Giants need the best talent back from Bumgarner/Smith/Dyson far more than they need salary relief from Longoria.

[DiscGolfer]

Looks like you can add one team to the list of buyers, looks like St. Louis lost their closer for the rest of the year.

[lecroy24fan]

Not what we needed. We need more teams looking to sell not buy!

[ChrisKnutson]

Outside the box trade question regarding the Giants:

 

Would you take on Longoria (play part time/bat off of the bench, veteran leadership, yada yada yada) to lower the price of Bumgarner and or Smith/Dyson?

While I get that you’re looking at this more from the perspective of our current pitching needs, considering the high likelihood that Cruz will be gone after the 2020 season, along with questions around Sano’s ability to remain at 3B, I actually would love to have a Gold Glover like Longoria at 3B, with the hope that he can once again put up respectable numbers for the position. Now I understand that Longo hasn’t hit very well in his time in the Bay Area, but I can’t help but feel like he’s got more in the tank. Perhaps this new coaching staff could help him develop a new approach/rediscover his swing.

[Riverbrian]

 

It's sort of a catch-22. The only guys who could bring back affordable talent are already affordable talent themselves (Buttrey, Canning, etc.). You're just spinning your wheels if you trade that.

 

It's not like they've been sitting on good assets and letting them expire -- their assets have all just comprehensively sucked or gotten hurt. I am sure the Angels would have loved to trade Shoemaker or Richards at some point before they hit FA -- but both of those guys were injured for pretty much their entire last 3 years before FA. And Skaggs, and Heaney... there's not much you can do when that happens except weather the storm.

 

 

Yet we applaud the Twins for getting Castro, Schoop, Marwin, Pineda, Perez, etc. in this price range or lower.

 

The Angels struggles in FA are not due to any limitation of payroll. They're only at $158 mil, in a huge market, with the most recent $43 mil sunk on Cahill, Harvey, Allen, and Cozart. The Angels just need to sign better players. If the current FO can't do that, I don't want them to tear things down or give them more financial flexibility -- I want a new FO.

 

(And FWIW, the Angels did change their FO in late 2015. Given what they were tasked to do -- completely rebuild the farm and work under the shadow of the Pujols, Hamilton, Weaver, and Wilson deals -- I think they've done enough to at least finish their 5 year plan, which would take them through 2020 and give them a chance to see Ohtani back on the mound and deploy some of the young players they've collected the past few years.)

 

Perhaps I'm being a little hard on Eppler, he walked into a tough room but his approach has only slightly changed from his predecessors, if it has at all. 

 

They are stuck in a cycle of having to spend continually because the little youth they had was traded away to acquire more vets that got hurt or didn't perform and they just try again next year.

 

Outside of Trout, the best prospects they produced... produced elsewhere to add everyone from Ianetta to Simmons. 

 

Teams need 600K talent. Can't play 600K talent with 30 Million dollar average to non performing talent in the way... So here come Harvey and Cahill to feed the broken machine. 

 

Astros, Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox all built their base with 600K talent and added to that with high dollar players that sometimes worked and sometime didn't but they built that base. The Angels tried to buy it. 

 

Harvey and Cahill are just a continuation of the same affliction. Maybe the farm is starting to perk up, that would be exactly what they need. Clearing some space for them by stopping the insanity just might prevent those prospects of today from becoming 600K talent for someone else tomorrow.