Autonomous Vehicles

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

“People love to drive too much. People don’t want to be forced to sit in their truck or car but not allowed to steer or break. People love to drive. Always have. Maybe the 20-somethings want this new driverless stuff. I don’t know. Maybe the big companies should market this to them, then. ”

Honestly, what part about that is “wildly inaccurate”?

Because you assume people "love to drive". I explained it pretty clearly in an earlier post:

"And most of those distracted asses will agree once they realize they can sit on their phone instead of driving, which is what they want to do anyway."

 

People "love" driving the same way they "loved" washing dishes by hand or "loved" cooking over a fire every day when there was no other option.

 

It's a basic function of life for most people, not a passion. Replace a function of life with something easier and people will flock to it.

 

I actually love to drive. I LOVE it. But if you gave me the option to go on cruise control and let a robot drive me to work, I'd be all over it.

 

Why?

Because the reason I love to drive ain't the commute to work.

[ashbury]

The commute to work will be improved when all the vehicles are robotic. Today, once a certain level of saturation is reached on an arterial route, it quickly gets worse when human drivers jockey from one lane to another seeking an edge over their fellow commuters. Each lane change causes a ripple effect because it requires more than one car-length to accomplish, and pretty soon no one is moving at all. A well-running automated freeway ought to be able to stay at remarkably fast speeds compared to what we have today.

[Squirrel]

Because you assume people "love to drive". I explained it pretty clearly in an earlier post:

"And most of those distracted asses will agree once they realize they can sit on their phone instead of driving, which is what they want to do anyway."

 

People "love" driving the same way they "loved" washing dishes by hand or "loved" cooking over a fire every day when there was no other option.

 

It's a basic function of life for most people, not a passion. Replace a function of life with something easier and people will flock to it.

 

I actually love to drive. I LOVE it. But if you gave me the option to go on cruise control and let a robot drive me to work, I'd be all over it.

 

Why?

Because the reason I love to drive ain't the commute to work.

Well, this is the difference ... driving because you ‘have to’, such as in a daily work commute or errand-running situation, or for pleasure. I dislike the former ... especially in a manual transmission vehicle in Chicago rush hour traffic ... but love the latter. I’m thinking maybe these vehicles will have a function of being able to turn off and on which you want, just like being able to turn on and off one’s cruise control.

 

All said, eh, I’ll adjust and go with the flow (sort of pun intended) when it’s a reality for me. It matters not when that reality is. I just hope that when that time comes, my brain will actually be able to make that adjustment.

[Vanimal46]

The commute to work will be improved when all the vehicles are robotic. Today, once a certain level of saturation is reached on an arterial route, it quickly gets worse when human drivers jockey from one lane to another seeking an edge over their fellow commuters. Each lane change causes a ripple effect because it requires more than one car-length to accomplish, and pretty soon no one is moving at all. A well-running automated freeway ought to be able to stay at remarkably fast speeds compared to what we have today.

I agree and can't wait for this to happen. Human error is the reason 99% of the time for backed up/slowed down traffic on the highways.

 

Here in Texas when it rains people honestly don't know how to drive in it... It drives me absolutely nuts. Eerily similar to how people drive in snow up north. When it rains, you can almost guarantee there will be a few people driving 20 MPH under the speed limit, and a few people driving like they stole the car, causing accidents all over the place.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

With all due respect, I don’t think this will ever happen.

The tech will never be able to replace a human driver. To not even mention winter states. Plus what Levi said, the policy is terrible (or should be). Companies planning around this have lost their way.

The tech is already safer than the human driver. 

 

My company is involved in this stuff. It's pretty cool, though yeah, there's going to be some pretty serious ramifications to it.

 

As for Tesla, I have a colleague with one. That car practically drives itself already.

[Mike Sixel]

The vast majority of miles driven are for work, or to run an errand not far from your home. Just automating those would be huge. It sure would make bicycling safer.

[MMMordabito]

 

The commute to work will be improved when all the vehicles are robotic. Today, once a certain level of saturation is reached on an arterial route, it quickly gets worse when human drivers jockey from one lane to another seeking an edge over their fellow commuters. Each lane change causes a ripple effect because it requires more than one car-length to accomplish, and pretty soon no one is moving at all. A well-running automated freeway ought to be able to stay at remarkably fast speeds compared to what we have today.

 

This actually gives me a little different perspective.  I assume these things will all be programmed to default toward yield.  Those of us who don't buy into it may have our way on the freeway.  If an accident occurs, we can just blame the tech for not taking the situation into account.  

[ashbury]

This actually gives me a little different perspective.  I assume these things will all be programmed to default toward yield.  Those of us who don't buy into it may have our way on the freeway.  If an accident occurs, we can just blame the tech for not taking the situation into account.  

I have a car with "adaptive cruise control", which is a far cry from full autonomy but gives a flavor. It doesn't feel like it defaults toward yield. It defaults toward assuming that the car in front will keep moving, but responds quickly when the speed changes, and responds more forcefully when there is sudden deceleration ahead. I haven't experienced a full panic stop, and I don't want to - I continue to "drive", with my foot near the pedals if earlier intervention is called for.

 

Once or twice, it has stepped in to override my choice to let the distance decrease when a driver pulls into my lane, say from a parking lot, and as a human I know the other guy will accelerate smartly but the camera/computer isn't so sure - I was ready to brake but didn't expect to need to, but suddenly my car was decelerating anyway, and I said to myself that maybe I was being a little too aggressive.

 

I am nowhere near ready to trust my life (or anyone else's outside) with the technology in my vehicle, but then again mine is 2015 technology and it already gives me a pretty warm feeling about where we're headed. We need several more years of fine tuning based on real-life feedback on limited access roads, but we're getting there.

 

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

So I guess I failed to see, from Brock’s post onward, that what is really important, the issue is self driving cars would fix the congestion on the 9-to-5 highway commute? Possibly, sure. I don’t doubt that little stretch of road is being solved. Then after we exit the highway, we all disable the self driving feature? The record of self driving cars on closed tracks in warm weather states on sunny days wouldn’t convince me. Uber and Pittsburgh are apparently scaling expectations way, way back on their experiment, based on an article I just looked at. So like another poster said above — self driving cars are fake news? Yeah, maybe a little.

 

In any case, I believe there are better ways to mitigate the morning commute issue that have nothing to do with throwing billions of dollars at tech celebrities who would not set foot in Minnesota unless money could be made.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

And the political part: People like to drive. Maybe not people who post here. Heck maybe not even a majority of people everywhere. Maybe I am wrong about that! But I will believe this issue has traction when politicians start campaigning on it, which seems light years away. And again, they would need to because the money is not feasible. I would like to see Klobuchar go on a long speech and tell the crowd that their cars and pickups will be replaced with self driving vehicles, you won’t have to be a truck driver or drive your work truck anymore, computer programmers from California will tell it what to do, and won’t that be great, etc. Again, I believe there are political solutions better than self driving cars, even in the city. Much better solutions.

[ashbury]

And the political part: People like to drive. Maybe not people who post here. Heck maybe not even a majority of people everywhere. Maybe I am wrong about that! But I will believe this issue has traction when politicians start campaigning on it, which seems light years away. And again, they would need to because the money is not feasible. I would like to see Klobuchar go on a long speech and tell the crowd that their cars and pickups will be replaced with self driving vehicles, you won’t have to be a truck driver or drive your work truck anymore, computer programmers from California will tell it what to do, and won’t that be great, etc. Again, I believe there are political solutions better than self driving cars, even in the city. Much better solutions.

Them California programmers will figger out how to add a line of code or two that adjusts the level of automation when you turn your tractor off the tar road and head back down to the crick. Push one button when you're fixin to go to work, t'other when you're fixin to go home.

 

Honestly. There is so much hostility to addressing problems that pertain to dense urban populations.

 

I love to drive. I will go miles out of my way to try a different road taking me from Point A to Point B. These dumb little New England towns where I live now don't make this as fun as in other places I've lived, but I still waste time and gas exploring. This is not an option for most people while going to and from work, though - all you do is replace gridlock in your neighborhood with gridlock in some other neighborhood. That's not the fun of driving.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Them California programmers will figger out how to add a line of code or two that adjusts the level of automation when you turn your tractor off the tar road and head back down to the crick. Push one button when you're fixin to go to work, t'other when you're fixin to go home.

 

Honestly. There is so much hostility to addressing problems that pertain to dense urban populations.

 

I love to drive. I will go miles out of my way to try a different road taking me from Point A to Point B. These dumb little New England towns where I live now don't make this as fun as in other places I've lived, but I still waste time and gas exploring. This is not an option for most people while going to and from work, though - all you do is replace gridlock in your neighborhood with gridlock in some other neighborhood. That's not the fun of driving.

I am not hostile to addressing problems that pertain to dense urban populations.

[ashbury]

I am not hostile to addressing problems that pertain to dense urban populations.

I'm not quite sure what your crack about California programmers was meant to convey, then. Resentment toward.... something... is my guess.

[Mr. Brooks]

This actually gives me a little different perspective. I assume these things will all be programmed to default toward yield. Those of us who don't buy into it may have our way on the freeway. If an accident occurs, we can just blame the tech for not taking the situation into account.

It's quite possible that this type of attitude, that commuting is some kind of competition, is the primary reason the roads are so dangerous.

[Mr. Brooks]

And the political part: People like to drive. Maybe not people who post here. Heck maybe not even a majority of people everywhere. Maybe I am wrong about that! But I will believe this issue has traction when politicians start campaigning on it, which seems light years away. And again, they would need to because the money is not feasible. I would like to see Klobuchar go on a long speech and tell the crowd that their cars and pickups will be replaced with self driving vehicles, you won’t have to be a truck driver or drive your work truck anymore, computer programmers from California will tell it what to do, and won’t that be great, etc. Again, I believe there are political solutions better than self driving cars, even in the city. Much better solutions.

I don't think so. Just eliminating the accordion effect, the way a line of cars spreads out dramatically upon acceleration because a human driver can't safely go at the exact same moment and speed as the driver in front of them, and again upon deceleration, alone will nearly eliminate traffic jams.

 

And again, it makes me sad that humans are so selfish that they won't get behind something that can save a huge number of lives, just because it lessens their enjoyment of something.

I'm not necessarily calling you out specifically, but much of the backlash seems to be, "driving is fun though".

[MMMordabito]

 

It's quite possible that this type of attitude, that commuting is some kind of competition, is the primary reason the roads are so dangerous.

 

It is a competition.  Only the first 10,000 fans get a flapper hat on Saturday.  It will probably be that way in 2023 as well.  I'll get my hat and you Yielders will be left in the dust.

[Mike Sixel]

I attended traffic school last night, to get rid of a speeding ticket...

 

The only good part was this story...

 

If you leave the room you are supposed to, and someone takes the space, you slow down for a second to get the correct space again. Many of us will do that a few times, then tailgate so it doesn't keep happening. But, if you did it sixty times, you'd lose a whole minute....

 

I like to drive, outside the city. But most of my drives? Yuck. And I could be a lot more productive, or have even more fun, if I did something else with that time. Add in reduced costs to society..... What do goods cost if there are way less accidents.... How much productivity and happiness is cost while waiting for an incident to clear?..... And less deaths and major injuries....

 

It's going to happen, and people will look back on driving like they do corded phones, and typewriters, and other obsolete things.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I don't think so. Just eliminating the accordion effect, the way a line of cars spreads out dramatically upon acceleration because a human driver can't safely go at the exact same moment and speed as the driver in front of them, and again upon deceleration, alone will nearly eliminate traffic jams.

Are there studies that show the accordion effect will be eliminated, or is that just your belief?

[Mike Sixel]

Are there studies that show the accordion effect will be eliminated, or is that just your belief?

Studies. Lots of studies. Traffic will flow much, much, better.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I attended traffic school last night, to get rid of a speeding ticket...

The only good part was this story...

If you leave the room you are supposed to, and someone takes the space, you slow down for a second to get the correct space again. Many of us will do that a few times, then tailgate so it doesn't keep happening. But, if you did it sixty times, you'd lose a whole minute....

I like to drive, outside the city. But most of my drives? Yuck. And I could be a lot more productive, or have even more fun, if I did something else with that time. Add in reduced costs to society..... What do goods cost if there are way less accidents.... How much productivity and happiness is cost while waiting for an incident to clear?..... And less deaths and major injuries....

It's going to happen, and people will look back on driving like they do corded phones, and typewriters, and other obsolete things.

 

I mostly agree, but I do find a calm in driving.  

 

Then again, if I could suddenly make long drives and nap?  I'd do a lot more traveling.

[Brock Beauchamp]

So I guess I failed to see, from Brock’s post onward, that what is really important, the issue is self driving cars would fix the congestion on the 9-to-5 highway commute? Possibly, sure. I don’t doubt that little stretch of road is being solved. Then after we exit the highway, we all disable the self driving feature? The record of self driving cars on closed tracks in warm weather states on sunny days wouldn’t convince me. Uber and Pittsburgh are apparently scaling expectations way, way back on their experiment, based on an article I just looked at. So like another poster said above — self driving cars are fake news? Yeah, maybe a little.

 

In any case, I believe there are better ways to mitigate the morning commute issue that have nothing to do with throwing billions of dollars at tech celebrities who would not set foot in Minnesota unless money could be made.

Uber is scaling back because, like all things Uber does, their testing was reckless and half-assed. It got someone killed.

 

Google, GM, and VW are not Uber.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Studies. Lots of studies. Traffic will flow much, much, better.

Not my question; and your link is broken/nonexistent

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Uber is scaling back because, like all things Uber does, their testing was reckless and half-assed. It got someone killed.

Google, GM, and VW are not Uber.

What are the Google, GM, Volkswagen city tests? I am not familiar.

[Mike Sixel]

Not my question; and your link is broken/nonexistent

I don't have a link handy, it's not like I keep links to every possible question someone asks lying around....

[Brock Beauchamp]

What are the Google, GM, Volkswagen city tests? I am not familiar.

Google is testing around the west in various cities. GM (Cruise) is testing in San Francisco to really push the limits of the tech. I can’t recall where VW is testing, though their tech is supposedly quite advanced.

[Musk21]

 

What are the Google, GM, Volkswagen city tests? I am not familiar.

 

Waymo, formerly the Google project, announced yesterday that it was opening a plant in Detroit:

 

https://www.freep.com/story/money/cars/2019/04/23/waymo-self-driving-cars-detroit-jobs/3543494002/

 

[MMMordabito]

 

Studies. Lots of studies. Traffic will flow much, much, better.

 

I wonder if the studies are based on 25% participation, 50% participation, 100% participation .... If it's 100%, then it's either incredibly idealistic or is based on a law requiring only autonomous vehicles being on the roads (Not going to be supported)

[Mr. Brooks]

Are there studies that show the accordion effect will be eliminated, or is that just your belief?

https://www.iflscience.com/technology/just-a-small-number-of-driverless-cars-on-the-highway-could-slash-traffic-jams/

[Mr. Brooks]

I wonder if the studies are based on 25% participation, 50% participation, 100% participation .... If it's 100%, then it's either incredibly idealistic or is based on a law requiring only autonomous vehicles being on the roads (Not going to be supported)

See my link.

The University of Illinois study found that even just 5% autonomous cars is enough to virtually eliminate the accordion effect.

[Vanimal46]

https://www.iflscience.com/technology/just-a-small-number-of-driverless-cars-on-the-highway-could-slash-traffic-jams/

This is a great link. Thanks for posting it.