Article: PHI 10, MIN 4: Polanco Cycles in the Rain, Rest Is All Pain

[Mr. Brooks]

I’m not questioning why he isn’t a full time outfielder anymore.

 

I’m comfortable saying Cruz’s bat+defense is better than Cave’s in a short span of games. They apparently prefer Cave’s platoon advantage instead. We will soon find out. To take it one step further, I might also use Kepler in center and Buxton on the bench as a late inning replacement for Cruz in these NL parks.

I guess I don't understand what would allow him to play acceptable defense in NL parks, but not in a full time role.

He's either passable as an outfielder, or he's not.

If he is, that's awesome, that makes him even more valuable than we bargained for. But, I don't believe he is. I believe his position is DH, and DH only.

[Mr. Brooks]

Dan Hayes reported it was Austin. Cron and Cruz appear to be the better options for this year at DH and 1B. I hoping that Kirilloff, Rooker, Larnach and Sano are the better options longer term.

 

Austin’s window is now. I think someone will give him the opportunity.

If this was the plan, it makes rostering him to start the season an odd decision. They had to know it wasn't going to take long before a short start was going to deplete the bullpen for a day.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

I guess I don't understand what would allow him to play acceptable defense in NL parks, but not in a full time role.

He's either passable as an outfielder, or he's not.

If he is, that's awesome, that makes him even more valuable than we bargained for. But, I don't believe he is. I believe his position is DH, and DH only.

It would be a short sample of games. It’s fair to disagree on this. Though I am surprised the team is deciding it this way, considering how well Cruz is hitting.

[jorgenswest]

If this was the plan, it makes rostering him to start the season an odd decision. They had to know it wasn't going to take long before a short start was going to deplete the bullpen for a day.

I think they went with what they believed was the best 25. That decision is always fluid. Today’s best 25 needs some length in the pen.

 

If Cruz or Cron had gone down in the first week they would have looked pretty foolish letting him go before they needed that 12th pitcher.

 

Perhaps he clears waivers at this point a week into the season and accepts the outright to AAA.

[jorgenswest]

I think I would have started Cruz once in this series matched with Buxton in CF. I certainly would not have put him out there in yesterday’s field conditions. I wouldn’t put him out there on back to back days. Maybe we will see in RF tomorrow.

[Mr. Brooks]

It would be a short sample of games. It’s fair to disagree on this. Though I am surprised the team is deciding it this way, considering how well Cruz is hitting.

I'm surprised as well, I guess I was conditioned over the years by Gardy and Molitor, both of whom seemed to place very little value on defense.

Though for me, it's a pleasant surprise.

 

And yes, totally fine to agree to disagree. I fully expect I'll be in the minority on this issue.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think they went with what they believed was the best 25. That decision is always fluid. Today’s best 25 needs some length in the pen.

 

If Cruz or Cron had gone down in the first week they would have looked pretty foolish letting him go before they needed that 12th pitcher.

 

Perhaps he clears waivers at this point a week into the season and accepts the outright to AAA.

What if Cruz or Cron go down next week? Or the week after that? Or next month?

 

I think the odds of him both passing waivers AND accepting an outright are slim enough to practically discard.

 

They didn't have to DFA him. They could have sent down someone with options and called up a pitcher on the 40 man. This tells me this was the plan the first time they needed a pitcher, which I don't get.

[jorgenswest]

I was thinking the same thing.

 

They can send down Hildenberger or Harper and recall Littell. If Littell goes today they can send him out and call up Vazquez or Duffey. Later this month Hildenberger or Harper would be ready to return.

 

The Austin insurance could have been stretched until they needed a fifth starter or Sano returns.

 

I guess the question is would we prefer keeping Austin if it means Duffey or Vazquez in the pen over Hildenberger or Harper for the next 10 days. Maybe.

 

I don’t think this is a season altering decision.

[Mr. Brooks]

I was thinking the same thing.

 

They can send down Hildenberger or Harper and recall Littell. If Littell goes today they can send him out and call up Vazquez or Duffey. Later this month Hildenberger or Harper would be ready to return.

 

The Austin insurance could have been stretched until they needed a fifth starter or Sano returns.

 

I guess the question is would we prefer keeping Austin if it means Duffey or Vazquez in the pen over Hildenberger or Harper for the next 10 days. Maybe.

 

I don’t think this is a season altering decision.

There are also position players that have options.

 

I have no idea if it will or won't be a season altering decision, but I think Austin has a fair amount of potential and wish they would have kept him around until an injury gave him a chance at everyday at bats.

[jorgenswest]

I guess they could have sent out Garver, Cave or Astudillo.

[Dantes929]

 

I guess I don't understand what would allow him to play acceptable defense in NL parks, but not in a full time role.
He's either passable as an outfielder, or he's not.
If he is, that's awesome, that makes him even more valuable than we bargained for. But, I don't believe he is. I believe his position is DH, and DH only.

There are definitely 4 better defensive outfielders than Cruz and maybe more.    There are no better DH's so in the AL it is a no brainer.   Even if he is "passable" defensively it is better to put him at DH.    In the NL you have to decide if he is a bigger liability defensively than he is an asset offensively.   I tend to be on the defensive side as well and he is still an asset for hitting in the pitcher's spot in a high leverage situation.     If he plays the outfield and gets 4 or 5 at bats he might hit a homer that decides the game and he might mess up a play that one of the other outfielders would have made and the difference loses the game.   Because of the relative odds of either happening I am ok with that decision.     Its baseball,   you can make good decisions that turn out badly and you can make bad decisions that work out well.   This would be one of those that is too close to call so I am not going to criticize it even if doesn't go our way.

[Mr. Brooks]

I guess they could have sent out Garver, Cave or Astudillo.

My point isn't to try to determine if any of these guys should go down instead of Austin.

My point is that they have plenty of other reasonable options, so this was likely the plan from the start. It just surprises me is all. I'd like to see better mid and long term planning from them.

Finding a way to keep him around for 5 plate appearances was pointless.

[Riverbrian]

 

I guess I don't understand what would allow him to play acceptable defense in NL parks, but not in a full time role.
He's either passable as an outfielder, or he's not.
If he is, that's awesome, that makes him even more valuable than we bargained for. But, I don't believe he is. I believe his position is DH, and DH only.

 

If he can't... he can't play. All he has to do is get under a fly ball. Like Grossman was able to get under a fly ball and then we have improved the offense. 

 

No question that the other OF options are better defensive option but the other OF options don't have his bat. 

 

If he can't get under a fly ball... He's a pinch hitter on trips the the National League. 

[Mr. Brooks]

There are definitely 4 better defensive outfielders than Cruz and maybe more. There are no better DH's so in the AL it is a no brainer. Even if he is "passable" defensively it is better to put him at DH. In the NL you have to decide if he is a bigger liability defensively than he is an asset offensively. I tend to be on the defensive side as well and he is still an asset for hitting in the pitcher's spot in a high leverage situation. If he plays the outfield and gets 4 or 5 at bats he might hit a homer that decides the game and he might mess up a play that one of the other outfielders would have made and the difference loses the game. Because of the relative odds of either happening I am ok with that decision. Its baseball, you can make good decisions that turn out badly and you can make bad decisions that work out well. This would be one of those that is too close to call so I am not going to criticize it even if doesn't go our way.

I don't agree that it's too close to call. I think the defensive drop from any of our outfielders to Cruz is massively bigger than the offensive drop from Cruz to them. It's not like Rosario, Kepler or Cave are carrying a Butera-esque bat.

But, that's my personal opinion. I can't prove it. I think your post was great, despite my slight disagreement of the last sentence.

[Mr. Brooks]

If he can't... he can't play. All he has to do is get under a fly ball. Like Grossman was able to get under a fly ball and then we have improved the offense.

 

No question that the other OF options are better defensive option but the other OF options don't have his bat.

 

If he can't get under a fly ball... He's a pinch hitter on trips the the National League.

Nelson Cruz would make Grossman look like Buxton if he were allowed to bring a glove out there, IMO.

I mean, the guy is 38 years old, and was not a good outfielder in his prime.

 

I'm a fan of utilizing players strengths to the max, and minimizing their weaknesses to the max. I think the way you do that with Cruz is by letting him carry a bat to the plate as many times as possible, without giving him a glove.

[Riverbrian]

 

Nelson Cruz would make Grossman look like Buxton if he were allowed to bring a glove out there, IMO.
I mean, the guy is 38 years old, and was not a good outfielder in his prime.

I'm a fan of utilizing players strengths to the max, and minimizing their weaknesses to the max. I think the way you do that with Cruz is by letting him carry a bat to the plate as many times as possible, without giving him a glove.

 

You could be right. I don't know what he is capable of out there... but I'm honestly under the impression that he would have been better than Rosario was out there last night. 

 

I'm glad that Baldelli is cooling Rosie for a day. 

[ashbury]

My point isn't to try to determine if any of these guys should go down instead of Austin.

My point is that they have plenty of other reasonable options, so this was likely the plan from the start. It just surprises me is all. I'd like to see better mid and long term planning from them.

Finding a way to keep him around for 5 plate appearances was pointless.

Unless... their judgement was that a player is more likely to slide through waivers a few days after Opening Day, when other teams are making their first adjustments just like we are.

 

There are probably numbers that tell, one way versus the other; I don't know where to look up transaction records that show historical waiver claims.

[Mr. Brooks]

You could be right. I don't know what he is capable of out there... but I'm honestly under the impression that he would have been better than Rosario was out there last night.

 

I'm glad that Baldelli is cooling Rosie for a day.

Yeah, perhaps with a crystal ball the manager could predict when an otherwise far superior fielder is going to have a poor game, and he could swap in Cruz that day.

Without that crystal ball you can only go off their actual overall ability.

[Mr. Brooks]

Unless... their judgement was that a player is more likely to slide through waivers a few days after Opening Day, when other teams are making their first adjustments just like we are.

 

There are probably numbers that tell, one way versus the other; I don't know where to look up transaction records that show historical waiver claims.

Having been DFA'd before, Austin can refuse an outright assignment.

Of course, he could accept it.

But given we have to clear both those hurdles to keep him in the organization, I'm tentatively presuming that the odds are very high that he won't be back.

 

I just can't imagine that there isn't a team with no hope of competing this year that won't take a free asset like Austin.

[Riverbrian]

 

Yeah, perhaps with a crystal ball the manager could predict when an otherwise far superior fielder is going to have a poor game, and he could swap in Cruz that day.
Without that crystal ball you can only go off their actual overall ability.

 

When I was kid you get one of those crystal balls at Woolworths for .99 cents. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I guess I don't understand what would allow him to play acceptable defense in NL parks, but not in a full time role.

He's either passable as an outfielder, or he's not.

 

Could be an age/health issue too. Maybe Cruz would wear down from too much OF play, but in short spurts (perhaps measured in innings rather than games), he could be passable.

 

Looks like the Mariners gave him 4-5 starts in RF each of the last two seasons.

 

Batting near the top of the lineup, he could get more PA than defensive chances -- and you would eventually sub him out depending on the game state. (Looks like he only played 1 complete game in the OF for the Mariners the last two years).

[Mr. Brooks]

Could be an age/health issue too. Maybe Cruz would wear down from too much OF play, but in short spurts (perhaps measured in innings rather than games), he could be passable.

 

Looks like the Mariners gave him 4-5 starts in RF each of the last two seasons.

 

Batting near the top of the lineup, he could get more PA than defensive chances -- and you would eventually sub him out depending on the game state. (Looks like he only played 1 complete game in the OF for the Mariners the last two years).

I'd argue that it's much more likely the Mariners only gave him 9 starts in the field over 2 years because he's terrible out there, not because they were trying to keep his legs fresh.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Having been DFA'd before, Austin can refuse an outright assignment.

Of course, he could accept it.

But given we have to clear both those hurdles to keep him in the organization, I'm tentatively presuming that the odds are very high that he won't be back.

 

I just can't imagine that there isn't a team with no hope of competing this year that won't take a free asset like Austin.

Michael Reed just cleared waivers for the Giants and elected free agency -- but then re-signed with them on a minor league deal. (The Giants are probably a better opportunity for Reed than the Twins are for Austin, though.)

[Mr. Brooks]

When I was kid you get one of those crystal balls at Woolworths for .99 cents.

I suppose a magic 8 ball might work as well.

[Riverbrian]

 

I suppose a magic 8 ball might work as well.

 

It does

 

However... 

Crystal Ball options are unlimited... The Magic 8 Ball is limited to whatever is printed up and placed inside. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'd argue that it's much more likely the Mariners only gave him 9 starts in the field over 2 years because he's terrible out there, not because they were trying to keep his legs fresh.

It's not necessarily an either/or proposition. He could be poor out there, but not so bad that a few innings would be disastrous, and also wear down easily.

 

Cruz's worst UZR/150 season was -8; -12 Rtot/yr, -13 Rdrs/yr. It's possible he could still perform close to that for a few innings on fresh legs, but the longer he is out there, the worse he gets -- and the risk could spill over to affect his bat and health.

[Doomtints]

We all knew Odorizzi isn't a 12 K / appearance guy. We also know he's not a 2/3 of an inning guy.

 

Maybe next time around we can get the real, mediocre Odorizzi ... 4-5 Ks, 4-5 innings, and with some luck less than 4-5 runs.

 

As for Perez, he is performing as I expected. I applaud him for doing the best he can, but he's just done. Hopefully this doesn't turn into a Logan Morrison situation and he sticks around too long. (And please, no one pull out his FIP and pretend it means anything.)

Edited April 6, 2019 by Doomtints

[Mr. Brooks]

It's not necessarily an either/or proposition. He could be poor out there, but not so bad that a few innings would be disastrous, and also wear down easily.

 

Cruz's worst UZR/150 season was -8; -12 Rtot/yr, -13 Rdrs/yr. It's possible he could still perform close to that for a few innings on fresh legs, but the longer he is out there, the worse he gets -- and the risk could spill over to affect his bat and health.

Sure.

It's also possible that, at age 38, he might perform significantly worse than that, even with fresh legs.

If they work him into a game or two or a few out there I won't complain. I'm just happy that they aren't trying to force him out there everytime we don't have a DH, as I feel Gardy or Molitor would have.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sure.

It's also possible that, at age 38, he might perform significantly worse than that, even with fresh legs.

If they work him into a game or two or a few out there I won't complain. I'm just happy that they aren't trying to force him out there everytime we don't have a DH, as I feel Gardy or Molitor would have.

That's fair. I certainly wouldn't have put him out there in the rain last night, that's for sure! But with Buxton out, no DH, and in good weather, it's probably worth considering, to get him 2-3 guaranteed PA in a good lineup spot.

[ashbury]

It does

 

However... 

Crystal Ball options are unlimited... The Magic 8 Ball is limited to whatever is printed up and placed inside. 

You may rely on it. It is decidedly so.