2013 draft position

[Mike Sixel]

Why is it a mistake? BPA is just one philosophy. For me, if there is little difference, the should err on the pitching or middle infield side. If there is a medium difference, probably still err on the pitching side. if Bryce Harper is there, they should take him. But other than that, the discrepancy in ranking would need to be huge to continue passing on arms with high floors and very good ceilings.

[DPJ]

Why is it a mistake? BPA is just one philosophy. For me, if there is little difference, the should err on the pitching or middle infield side. If there is a medium difference, probably still err on the pitching side. if Bryce Harper is there, they should take him. But other than that, the discrepancy in ranking would need to be huge to continue passing on arms with high floors and very good ceilings.

 

You realize that Appel, Zimmer, Gausmen were good prospects, but nothing that no Twins fan should cry over not drafting. They were the best of a group of medicore arms in a weak draft. Zeroing in on a arm hell of high water is a dumb way for any team to draft let alone one that's rebuilding. The Twins have alot of holes beyond the rotation and middle infield, so if it's all about talent you take best player and Buxton has if not the, one of the highest ceilings in this draft.

[Mike Sixel]

I realize the Twins have 1 arm in their entire minor league system that has any experience as a starter that profiles as a number 2. ONE arm. I also realize that Buxton could bust, as could any of those arms. But, it is more likely Buxton busts (HS player from a small town), than a college pitcher that has succeeded against top teams. Sure, Buxton's ceiling is higher, but the Twins have ONE arm in their entire system that currently profiles to even be a number 2, maybe even only 1 that profiles as a number 3 (JO is just too young, against too low a group of opponents to know anything at this point). I also realize that a team needs 5-7 starters and 5-10 relievers a year, and the Twins don't have anywhere near that. I also realize this GM will not trade prospects for legit MLB players, won't sign high priced players, and so far has shown a complete unwillingness to deal veterans for prospects this time around. So, I ask again, even in 3-5 years, where will the pitchers come from if you won't draft a college pitcher in round 1 unless he's Strasburg?

[beckmt]

Take the BPA. Appel will have to sign for reasons noted above. Do not trust Boras, as he could be looking for a player to be a test court case on the major league draft. Twins seem to have done OK with sandwich pick pitching this year and next years second pick will be in that range as there will be less sandwich picks.

[greengoblinrulz]

With Appel available at #3 next yr & he is again passed (no prob this yr), there will be a major fan revolt (of those of us that care).

Reading an article on Appel. He's talked with his Stanford coach about how he is too used next season (innings, pitch counts, actual pitch selection, etc) preparing him for the majors. Maybe that will help him from becoming the next college blowout.

Would Ryan/another GM consider Appel's Stanford season to be equal to a AA stint that he would have started the season off at and possibly pitch in majors next season??

[joeboo_22]

Appel would be the smart pick, next year is considered weaker then this year. Now yes all of that can change, but Appel is the top guy, and closest to the majors right now. He will be a senior. If he chooses not to sign, the Twins would get the draft pick 1 pick later the following year, which will probably be deeper. I think the sign ability issue just isn't there.

 

Now thats not to say some guy comes out of nowhere next year and is better, yes that guy should be picked. But don't pick against Appel if he is the best available.

[DPJ]

So, I ask again, even in 3-5 years, where will the pitchers come from if you won't draft a college pitcher in round 1 unless he's Strasburg?

 

Jesus titty-****ing Christ man, what I'm arguing about is this idea that you lock into a arm hell or high water in the first round. I don't know or care about the bust probobility of Appel vs. Buxton and I don't think it matters one bit. The Twins are in a postion that adding high ceiling talent (no matter the position) should be goal number 1. Locking yourself into a certain position is a foolish way to rebuild a system.

[kab21]

I have no problem with Appel being picked at #3/4 if he's the best available. I said the same last year. In fact I would consider it to be a bit of a steal since the Twins would have gotten Buxton (decidedly the BPA) AND Appel.

 

If you allow need, proximity to the majors and signability to be the most important factors in the draft you set yourself up to lose over the long term. It's also very difficult to time the needs of the MLB team in the draft since it usually takes 2-5 yrs for most picks to make the majors. 3 yrs ago the Twins had a very good rotation and quite a few good (but not ace) arms in the minors. Just take the BPA (in the draft and trades) and worry about where to play them in 2-5 yrs.

[Mike Sixel]

That only works if your gm is willing to trade his prospects....how big of a difference would there need to be to take a pitcher or not. Also, the Twins will have less picks next year. at some point, they need pitching.

[DPJ]

That only works if your gm is willing to trade his prospects....how big of a difference would there need to be to take a pitcher or not. Also, the Twins will have less picks next year. at some point, they need pitching.

 

You rank your top 1000 players of however many you rank and cross out names as you go. Whenever your turn is up you draft the best player on your board...were not reinventing the wheel here, this isn't rocket science here. Take the best...worry about here and how quick they'll get to the majors later.

[kab21]

That only works if your gm is willing to trade his prospects....how big of a difference would there need to be to take a pitcher or not. Also, the Twins will have less picks next year. at some point, they need pitching.

 

I think I stated the reasons that I completely disagree with you above. Mainly it's hard to project your needs 2-5 yrs from now since that's how long it takes most draft picks to make it. As an example 2-3 yrs ago the Twins had a very good rotation. 5 yrs ago the Twins had a huge need for OF'ers and made that the focus of 2 trades. Neither of those trades worked out.

 

I also think it's premature to think that there won't be a couple of moves in the next 2-3 yrs where OF'ers are traded for pitchers.

[DaveW]

I realize the Twins have 1 arm in their entire minor league system that has any experience as a starter that profiles as a number 2. ONE arm.

False.

 

Gibson and Berrios. I'm sure there are some other gems hidden as well who have that sort of potetial: Boyd? Jones?

[Badsmerf]

Felix Jorge has the upside, don't think we can really give him a ceiling yet.

[Mike Sixel]

I already commented that it is a bit early to know what berrios' ceiling is. He could be good, or he could be like delmon young and just be physically better than other kids. Ok, so you are saying there are two, one of whom has not pitched in A ball yet. Super. What is your solution?

[diehardtwinsfan]

The twins have a few pitchers in the lower minors that could have nice ceilings. They've spent some money on bonus babies the last couple of years. The problem is that they have next to nothing in the high minors. They have plenty of bats, but no pitching. Unless they do some trading, they are going to have to sign some pitchers to be competitive next season.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I see no reason to avoid Appel in the next draft. He has already refused to sign once. There's almost a zero chance he does it again. That would be madness.

Agreed. I believe the only reason he didn't sign was because he fell to #6. If he were #1, he would have signed. He's not going to hold out again. He's a senior this year, so if he doesn't sign, the only thing he could really do is go play independent ball somewhere for the year until he could enter the draft again, or sign as a free agent. Either way, that delays his entry into affiliated ball by another year. Deciding not to sign looks like he's taking the gamble that he will be drafter higher next year.

 

In that case, we should pick him and then, since he has less leverage, we should pay him under slot and use the money for other picks.

 

My guess is it has less to do with falling so low and more with he didn't want to play for Pittsburgh. Also, this could be an attempt by Boras et al to spike the wheel of a new draft system they hate. Either way, I wouldn't take the chance that he doesn't sign with the Twins even if he is picked by us and we offer him money comparable to a #1 pick overall.