Article: What Needs To Happen For Joe Mauer To Be A Twin In 2019?

[Andrew Thares]

 

Morrison doesn't have the history Mauer does. He has one quality MLB season.

 

Again, we'll see.  I hope he signs for a discount.  I actually believe he will.

Morrison is also going to be in just his age 30 season this year. In 2019, Joe will be 36.

[jimmer]

 

Morrison is also going to be in just his age 30 season this year. In 2019, Joe will be 36.

and he had one decent season in his career.

[Thrylos]

There is another way that Mauer can remain a Twin for life:  Accept a "special assistant" position, like his buddies

 

Way too early to even start thinking about Mauer and this off-season.  Let's see what kind of season Mauer, Morrison, Vargas, and Rooker have, including health-wise and can pick up the conversation in October/November...

[jimmer]

 

There is another way that Mauer can remain a Twin for life:  Accept a "special assistant" position, like his buddies

 

Way too early to even start thinking about Mauer and this off-season.  Let's see what kind of season Mauer, Morrison, Vargas, and Rooker have, including health-wise and can pick up the conversation in October/November...

And that's what's gonna happen.  And it should.  Rooker won't be a factor though.  WAY too early to think about him starting next year.

[h2oface]

All it would take, is for Joe to join the launch angle evolution, hit .300ish with 35 homers, 100 rbi, 40 doubles, and 2 stolen bases. The perfect swing evolves in the mid thirties, grabs the power that his large strong body dormantly stores.....and he extends his career a productive 3-4 years and cruises into the HOF. Piece of cake.

[Thrylos]

 

and he had one decent season in his career.

 

But much better than any season Mauer had since 2013...  And unfortunately Mauer will not likely be as good again.

[jimmer]

 

But much better than any season Mauer had since 2013...  And unfortunately Mauer will not likely be as good again.

ok, well see.

Edited March 13, 2018 by jimmer

[Mr. Brooks]

Jimmer, do you have any specific reasons you feel so strongly that Mauer will improve in 2018? Or just a feeling?

Edited March 13, 2018 by Mr. Brooks

[jimmer]

 

Jimmer, do you have any specific reasons you feel so strongly that Mauer will improve in 2018? Or just a feeling?

I believe he's finally better and that he'll only keep getting better.  The talent is there.  We've seen it.

[Mr. Brooks]

I believe he's finally better and that he'll only keep getting better. The talent is there. We've seen it.

But even if he is finally better, doesn't the aging curve at some point negate some of that?

Not saying improvement isn't on the spectrum of possibilities, but you seem too feel it's practically inevitable.

[jimmer]

 

But even if he is finally better, doesn't the aging curve at some point negate some of that?
Not saying improvement isn't on the spectrum of possibilities, but you seem too feel it's practically inevitable.

I believe there's a strong possibility, but of course he could go the other way.  No doubt it could.  

[ewen21]

 

Logan Morrison was worth 26.3 million last year.
How much did he sign for?

Excellent point.  I love how Fangraphs determines how much money a player is worth.  Are we REALLY using this as a benchmark for how the market should pay these players?  I think they are using the Yen as their basis.

 

Personally I don't sign Mauer no matter what he does this year.  He had "post concussion symptoms" for three years.  I am not putting out money for a 36 year old player with that history.  Not sure how and why the concussion thing doesn't get discussed when talking about a possible extension.  It seems to only be deployed when explaining away those three mediocre seasons he had in a row.

[jimmer]

Oh, and Fangraphs doesn't determine what a player is worth.  It determines a player's WAR and the market determines what 1 WAR is worth based on contracts given.

Edited March 13, 2018 by jimmer

[ewen21]

The point remains.  He is a player who claims to have post concussion symptoms going through three seasons.  That doesn't exactly make him marketable.

 

Please don't make the topic about me, Jim.  Not sure why you initiated that

[ewen21]

kee

I believe he's finally better and that he'll only keep getting better.  The talent is there.  We've seen it.

 

How does this work?  Joe turns 35 next month and with his history of injuries he is going to "keep getting better".  When you extend out the timeline far enough everyone outlives their usefulness.  In terms of baseball players, who gets better after 35??

[scottz]

How is deciding to move on from Mauer "treating him poorly"?

You’ll note that I put that part in quotes and you can interpret it however you’d like. My experience with casual sports fans are that they very much side with players versus owners. In our state in particular, it strikes me that casual fans believe that someone who has stayed with a team for his whole career and who has been “classy” throughout (I’ll interpret classy for you: hasn’t been in trouble and otherwise appears to be a good citizen) deserves to stay around as long as they can reasonably play, regardless of the compensation they have received previously. Given that casual fans make up a large portion of the money that comes to the organization, I think there is another point than those laid out by the author (who did a very good job laying out his points. I just disagree.).

 

So there.

 

Peace.

[Mr. Brooks]

You’ll note that I put that part in quotes and you can interpret it however you’d like. My experience with casual sports fans are that they very much side with players versus owners. In our state in particular, it strikes me that casual fans believe that someone who has stayed with a team for his whole career and who has been “classy” throughout (I’ll interpret classy for you: hasn’t been in trouble and otherwise appears to be a good citizen) deserves to stay around as long as they can reasonably play, regardless of the compensation they have received previously. Given that casual fans make up a large portion of the money that comes to the organization, I think there is another point than those laid out by the author (who did a very good job laying out his points. I just disagree.).

 

So there.

 

Peace.

Fair enough. I don't agree though.

I think the casual fan might grumble if he's let go, but in the end it will be wins and losses that determine how much of their money the team actually gets.

 

I'm also not sure where the player vs. owner part of your response comes from. The idea, if Joe is let go, would be to allocate that money and roster spot towards different players, not for the owner to pocket it.

[kab21]

I think there is a chance that Joe comes back on a favorable deal to be a spot starter and bench bat after this season. It would be a good combo with Sano if Sano can still play 50% of the games at 3B. He still has a decent amount of value in that role.

But I also don't think that Joe will have a lot of value around the league regardless of what his WAR is. WAR is handy for determining a rough value of a player but it can't be used solely to determine contract size. Especially using a one year sample. Joe was worth 1.2M - 7.6M - 18.1M the last 3 seasons. A 36 year non power hitting 1B that can't play everyday almost definitely isn't getting >10M/yr. He is also unlikely to get a 2 year contract imo.

[Mike Sixel]

Plus it is possible teams are finally figuring out $/WAR should not be linear....meaning the correction for 1-2 WAR players is real. At least under this CBA.

[ewen21]

Fair enough. I don't agree though.

I think the casual fan might grumble if he's let go, but in the end it will be wins and losses that determine how much of their money the team actually gets.

 

I'm also not sure where the player vs. owner part of your response comes from. The idea, if Joe is let go, would be to allocate that money and roster spot towards different players, not for the owner to pocket it.

It's pretty clear that the Twins are now operating on different terms than they were ten years ago.  This isn't a small market team, we are mid-market and have enough resources to compete.  If Mauer were not resigned then that money will be allocated to bring in other players.  I actually am curious to see what this group can do without Mauer and a payroll equal to the one we have now.  We might be able to make a MUCH BETTER team (which is what I am interested in, not whether or not Joe is allowed to play as long as he wishes).

[Brock Beauchamp]

kee

 

How does this work? Joe turns 35 next month and with his history of injuries he is going to "keep getting better". When you extend out the timeline far enough everyone outlives their usefulness. In terms of baseball players, who gets better after 35??

It’s pretty rare but not unheard of. Paul Molitor had the best four year stretch of his career from age 34 to 37.

[kab21]

 

It’s pretty rare but not unheard of. Paul Molitor had the best four year stretch of his career from age 34 to 37.

In addition Joe's bad years were following a significant injury. It appears that his condition is improving while his aging counteracts that. I am not expecting last season again but he could be a high OBP 8 HR guy for a couple more years.

[ewen21]

 

It’s pretty rare but not unheard of. Paul Molitor had the best four year stretch of his career from age 34 to 37.

If you remember a guy named Tom Paciorek, he had some excellent years as a DH in Chicago during his 34, 35, and 36 year old seasons.  Best seasons of his career by far.

 

 

[DrNeau]

 

I believe he's finally better...

 

He said he felt "great" in 2014 and 2015 spring trainings, then in Feb '16 he suddenly stated (to the media - not the team) that he had been experiencing "blurred vision" for approximately 2.5 years, despite being fully-cleared by doctors, post-concussion. It was a complete shock to the organization. Joe's own comments on his health are not even consistent. Oh but you are able to conclude that he is better. You must be quite talented!

Edited March 14, 2018 by DrNeau

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

He said he felt "great" in 2014 and 2015 spring trainings, then in Feb '16 he suddenly stated (to the media - not the team) that he had been experiencing "blurred vision" for approximately 2.5 years, despite being fully-cleared by doctors, post-concussion. It was a complete shock to the organization. Joe's own comments on his health are not even consistent. Oh but you are able to conclude that he is better. You must be quite talented!

Jimmer didn't conclude anything. He began the sentence with "I believe", which is generally a statement of opinion.

[FormerMinnasotan]

Well first off Joe has to remain productive. It would also help not only for his OBP to remain high, but to bat over .300 and not show signs of decline. Also he’s going to have to accept a 3 yr or so deal worth about $10 million per season. Joe is not worth anything over that. If he accepts those terms then I’m sure he will retire a Twin.

[old nurse]

 

Oh, and Fangraphs doesn't determine what a player is worth.  It determines a player's WAR and the market determines what 1 WAR is worth based on contracts given.

Matt Kemp says hello. If WAR is based on contracts given there is a huge fault with the over 200 million that players got paid for little of nothing in 2017.

[twinsguy14]

"...Entering 2019, Mauer will be going into his age 36 season with what will at best be a slightly above average bat and good defense. The problem is he is limited to playing first base, and there are plenty of quality bats at first to go around. Additionally, first base is a position that is very limited in the upside a quality defensive player can bring..."

"...Mauer’s turnaround last season was a big part of the Twins improved level of play. A big reason for his success was his strikeout rate falling to 13.9%, the lowest it has been since 2012. Mauer also had by far his best defensive season since moving to first base. This resulted in a 2.3 fWAR season from the one-time MVP, twice as much as he put up in 2015 and 2016 combined..."

I'm confused, those seem to rather contradicting statement. Was his hitting and defense barely above league avg or were they solid enough to have a huge effect on the teams success? I think anything you got out of Palonco defensively was attributed directly to great (gold glove quality) defense at first which you then pointed out in numbers. He was way more then league avg hitter with his avg and obp. If h has another year like last year he will get 2 years for $2 million. And three to four years of that production he is in HOF. Three batting titles as a catcher is unheard of. Other then those points it was well written.

[twinsguy14]

Two years to $20 million...

[twinsguy14]

Sorry bout typos guys. In a hospital bed with IVs and hook ups everywhere. Makes I hard to type. Doesn't matter, gotta get me some Twins Daily every day!!!