Will the Twins ever sign a top free agent or are we all just wasting our time?

[Mike Sixel]

If Darvish crashes and burns this year are you STILL going to say the Twins failed?

And if he is good?

 

The best way to judge decisions is to do so at the time they are made. It is really easy to judge things with more data.

 

I think what you don't see, on our side, is that the alternatives are likely much worse, wasting another year of Buxton and Sano. So, now what? How do they at to the top of the rotation to year, while still building a system that can supposedly compete forever?

[TheLeviathan]

 

My point is, we could have outbid them and still lost.  We would have needed to go considerably higher.

 

You don't know that, that's your speculation.

 

Largest bids overwhelmingly win in FA.  That's reality.  We chose not to have the largest bid.  Period.

[Platoon]

I normally am not a big FA guy. I don't want a Napoli just because he is a name, or another stick. And he is just one example. But on this team, at this time, and adding in the Santana medical issue, Darvish was a huge deal. He was the best chance to close a gap. Three years ago, I would have thought him a waste of resources. It's not even that they didn't get him, it's that they didn't force him to make a choice. RB is right, there is still a chance to redeem the off season, but the options are not good. One last thought. There are 11 pages here. It's not because of the singular loss of Yu Darvish. It's because this has been the operational philosophy of the MN Twins since they moved here from DC.

[jimmer]

 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/01/140122170622.htm

Yeah, that one study by the University of Missouri doesn't prove anything and certainly doesn't address athletes still performing very well into the 4th season of the new contract or ones who endure a major injury. 2010 fWAR: 5.0, 2012 fWAR: 4.5, 2013 fWAR: 5.2 (and that's the season he got the concussion, he was on his way to being a serious MVP candidate).

 

His dropoff coincided with the concussion, not because he became a slacker when he got his contract. 

[ewen21]

 

You don't know that, that's your speculation.

 

Largest bids overwhelmingly win in FA.  That's reality.  We chose not to have the largest bid.  Period.

No, I believe it's pretty elementary.  Darvish wasn't as interested to work in Minnesota than he was in Chicago.  To lure him here, we would have needed to sweeten the pot a lot more.  Chicago would not have needed to make a bid any bigger than the one they had to land him and ours would have needed to be considerably bigger than theirs.

 

I am not really even trying to convince you.  I am just telling you it is pretty basic stuff whether you can accept it or not.

[TheLeviathan]

 

No, I believe it's pretty elementary.  Darvish wasn't as interested to work in Minnesota than he was in Chicago.  To lure him here, we would have needed to sweeten the pot a lot more.  Chicago would not have needed to make a bid any bigger than the one they had to land him and ours would have needed to be considerably bigger than theirs.

 

I am not really even trying to convince you.  I am just telling you it is pretty basic stuff whether you can accept it or not.

 

You know what else is basic? 

 

130 > 126

[lukeduke1980]

Well at least we signed Michael Pineda

[bcs4]

 

No one is arguing it is a "fact" the Twins offered less.  Here are the facts we do know:

 

ME: That's pretty much the ONLY thing we've been discussing.

 

Darvish did not sign with the Twins.

 

The deal he did sign was considerably below expectations.

 

Me:  Not so sure about that.

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/mlb-free-agent-rumors-news-jake-arrieta-yu-darvish-2018-contract-value-estimate-war/67xwoocnnddd1kcmncyuxocs2

 

The Twins front office themselves acknowledge FA ultimately comes down to dollars and cents.

 

Me: Show me an owner that says it doesn't come down to dollars and cents, and I'll show you an owner that's a liar.

 

MLBPA and players are not going around refusing larger contracts because it sets a bad precedent and they are heavily pressured to get the best they can by their peers.

 

ME: I've read this several times now, but I've seen no source. I've searched everywhere that I can think of and I have seen no mention of pressure of any kind on a free agent to accept an offer of any amount regardless of what offer is highest.  I find it hard to believe that there would be any pressure on a FA if he decided to take 5-10% less than the top offer.  

 

So is it possible the Twins offered more?  Sure.  It's also possible I could pitch better than Yu Darvish this year by inventing a magic potion.

 

Me: A contract can be structured many ways. Payments can take taxes into account, it can include incentives, it can include other terms regarding special player treatment.  Is your only measurement the total, non-incentivised amount, or should it include a projected incentive based on past performance? Does it have to be more because it's 6 years, or does the future value of a front loaded contract more than make up for the difference between a 5 year $120 mil contract and a 6 year $126 Mil?

 

But what is the far more likely answer?  The fantasy land being put forward where the Twins just, aw shucks, can't get anyone to sign here no matter how much they offer is tired.  And incredibly unlikely.  

 

ME: Let's say every team in MLB offered the same exact $126 mil contract to a married Asian FA that already has assets of, say.. $100 million. Where do you think the Twins would land in his chosen order?  If they were lucky enough to be 16th, how much more would they have to pay him to play for the Twins?  $1?  $10,000?  $1 million? $10 mil?  Really, how much?  If I had that kind of money, it would be worth at least $5+ mil to live for 5 years in a place that I didn't, or my wife didn't, want to live, with a team that's going to have a really hard time winning a wild card berth for at least the first 2 years. I'd probably choose a place with a more vibrant Asian community. Like NY, LA, or Chicago, or even a place that was more likely to win a world series, like NY, LA, or Chicago. I can see why it's hard to imagine that someone might not choose to live in the Twin Cities, but it happens.  Even though someone might think that it's incredibly unlikely.

 

Almost as tired as Mauer value discussions.  And about as unlikely as those discussions going away in the middle of threads that have nothing to do with Mauer.

 

ME: Just as tiring as someone that's convinced that they know the reason that Darvish didn't sign with the Twins, but then again isn't that the reason for these forums?

 

We failed our priority in a free agency period rife with bargains.  Stop with the excuses.  Please.

 

ME: The Twins' top priority should be to sign the player or players that bring the best value. At some point, a player is not the best value. Darvish wasn't. I'd guess that's what they didn't sign him.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I would like to understand the rationale behind that for THIS player. What is it about THIS player?? Does he poop gold doubloons? Someone please make me understand how a pitcher with 52 wins, who ends the season as a 32 year old and flopped horribly in the World Series makes our team better?

Better than the alternatives now and in the foreseeable future, yes.

 

There are players better than Darvish, but they aren't available to us at this price now or in the foreseeable future. Darvish and his contract don't exist in a vacuum.

[Riverbrian]

 

The problem is that Plan B isn't really attractive at all.  Sure, we could get one or both of the other free agent pitchers but for the cost?  Not really overwhelming guys either.  Ugh!  I know we could trade away some of our other quality minor leaguers for the Tampa Bay guy (and lose a draft pick) but again I say ugh. I know there are numerous other scenarios that could play out but again I say Ugh. 

 

I'm working through the 5 stages of grief.  At stage 2 right now...Sorry. 

 

1. Denial

2. Anger

3. Bargaining

4. Depression

5. Acceptance

 

I am experiencing all 5 stages simultaneously.

 

Last night I got tossed out of Target for angrily trying to negotiate the price of "Market Pantry Monster Mix" with the young lady at the check out counter.   

 

Just so everyone knows... that type of behavior isn't me. I tried to explain to the police officer that it was a reaction to Darvish not signing with the Twins and the officer said it was no excuse in consideration of past Twins history. 

 

 

[bcs4]

 

First rule of free agent spending... why sign one free agent pitcher when you can sign two free agent pitchers at twice the cost? Only the second one can be kept secret. Signed by the Twins but built by the Japanese

 

?

[laloesch]

When the speculation about Darvish to the Twins started, I said I believe it's pure fantasy to believe the Twins will sign Darvish.

 

That was my belief as well from the very beginning, rightly or wrongly.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Hoping, but not expecting. I’ve said all along that Darvish wasn’t coming here. Maybe the best way to put it is my expectations were pretty low on this front. Now ... it’s not to say that my anger and disappointment won’t make an appearance at some point. If I see nothing when the 25-man is assembled come the start of the season? I think Brian nailed it in his post. What happens now will be more telling for me because I never thought Darvish would come here. As to the general question of the thread, will we ever make a big FA signing? I don’t know. I guess the answer for me is no, until we do.

What do you think of the Twins calling a Darvish signing a "priority" then? I am sure you personally were skeptical, but doesn't it still seem a little disingenuous?

 

I didn't think it was likely either, but then when the market turned out all weird, I thought, hey maybe the Twins were on to something and are prepared to capitalize. So it is a little disappointing to learn that no, we weren't.

[Riverbrian]

 

If Darvish crashes and burns this year are you STILL going to say the Twins failed?

 

Yes

 

If the Twins do not pick up a comparable Plan B option to Darvish... I will without question say that they failed. 

 

If Darvish finishes with a 5.00 ERA for all 6 years of the his Cubs Contract... I will still say that they failed. 

 

If Darvish throws one pitch in Spring Training and his arms falls off ending his career leaving the Cubs on the hook for all 6 years of payments... I will still say that they failed. 

 

 

[Jham]

 

You can't have winning without profit. Where do you suppose the money comes from to pay the players, the tooth fairy?

Awfully snarky comment for a statement not based in sports economics or real life economics.  Franchises don't have to make money.  They have to build value.  Chewy.com (or some pet supply site) sold to Petco for $3+ million, the largest ever e-commerce acquisition.  Chewy didn't make a profit in 6 years.  It was founded with $250k in start up funding.  They could have ran the business less aggressively.  Perhaps they would have sold for $1.35 mil and cost themselves $2 mil without even knowing it.  Perhaps they wouldn't have distinguished themselves in a competitive field and not made it at all.  

14 NBA Franchises lost money 2 years ago.  Down to 7 this year.  Are the owners stupid?  Or do they know that sustainable losses are worth taking if the overall growth exceeds the expense?  For the first time in NBA history, EVERY owner can now say they have a BILLION DOLLAR franchise.

Speaking of, the Pohlads have a billion dollar franchise.  Perhaps if they had reinvested profits into the team and won, they'd have a $1.5 billion dollar franchise.  Or $1.2.  Or $1.8.  The Cubs' title brought in an estimated $300 million in value to the franchise in a single season.  

In fact, capital gains tax is about a fourth of income tax for the wealthy.  From a tax planning standpoint, you're better off reinvesting income if you can generate real value.  We argue that the balance point is further to the left on the spending vs saving continuum of where the Twins are currently operating. We say this because other teams are being more aggressive.  The Yankees, for instance, just traded for Giancarlo Stanton.  

[ewen21]

 

You know what else is basic? 

 

130 > 126

You're what exactly?  That Darvish would have signed with us if we offered him 4 million more than Chicago?

 

No, I do not believe that is true.  

[tbhysgb]

I would have frontloaded darvish the next two years, given him the opt out and pray he takes it right before his arm falls off.

 

That way you get two years of help, he can go back to the beaches in time for you to start paying your homegrown talent.

 

I just didn’t want 25/yr sucking up payroll in the ass end wasting space and losing a homegrown stud.

[ewen21]

 

Yes

 

If the Twins do not pick up a comparable Plan B option to Darvish... I will without question say that they failed. 

 

If Darvish finishes with a 5.00 ERA for all 6 years of the his Cubs Contract... I will still say that they failed. 

 

 

 

You're basically admitting that no matter what you cannot be wrong on this topic.  It is simply impossible.

 

That is the kind of arrogance I like!  You're a good dude, Riverbrain!

[Otto von Ballpark]

I agree with you but Nick is right... We don't know.

 

Maybe the Twins offered 5/110 while the Cubs were talking 4/100 parameters.

 

Maybe the Cubs jumped to 6 and the Twins were never given a chance to make a counter.

That's not a defense of the Twins. That is still misreading the player and market. If I nickel and dime on a house when I am willing to pay over asking price, and another buyer comes in with an asking price offer and I don't get the chance to counter, I don't get points for trying.

[laloesch]

What offer would Darvish had accepted from the Twins?

7 years, 150 million. See the trouble is that he never wanted to play in Minnesota to begin with. I suspect we will see the same thing when Cobb, lynn all sign elsewhere and the Twins are left with nothing when the music stops. Let's face it almost nobody good wants to play in Minnesota.

[bcs4]

 

Yeah, that one study by the University of Missouri doesn't prove anything and certainly doesn't address athletes still performing very well into the 4th season of the new contract or ones who endure a major injury.

 

His dropoff coincided with the concussion, not because he became a slacker when he got his contract. 

 

Saying it isn't proof doesn't prove anything. At the very least the Mauer contract is evidence that a long term contract for big $ is a huge risk. The risk in his case is that a player signed can be injured, or end up playing a position with numbers that don't justify big money. Slacking or not, he wasn't worth it.

[ewen21]

,

7 years, 150 million. See the trouble is that he never wanted to play in Minnesota to begin with. I suspect we will see the same thing when Cobb, lynn all sign elsewhere and the Twins are left with nothing when the music stops. Let's face it almost nobody good wants to play in Minnesota.

When I said, "we need to outbid the entire market" I am saying, not by a dollar, but by A LOT.  It isn't only because we are Minnesota.  It is also because we have established a terrible track record in the playoffs.  Had we been competitive in the playoffs and actually gotten to a WS in one of those post seasons, who knows?

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

I do think the best way to spin this is that Falvey and Levine are young, naive and still pretty inexperienced at this.

 

Could be... Certainly can't be taken off the plausible possibility table. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I just didn’t want 25/yr sucking up payroll in the ass end wasting space and losing a homegrown stud.

$25 mil still leaves ~$100 mil annually for other assets. Perhaps more, if salary inflation continues. And those other assets wouldn't be bound by the years of Darvish's contract -- if payroll is tight in Darvish's last year, for example, a guy like Buxton could have salary deferred to the following year, etc.

 

Nevermind that saving an extra $25 mil payroll space for "homegrown studs" (plural!) 5-6 years from now is very much counting chickens before they hatch.

[Mike Sixel]

You're basically admitting that no matter what you cannot be wrong on this topic. It is simply impossible.

 

That is the kind of arrogance I like! You're a good dude, Riverbrain!

No, he's saying that you have to judge a decision when it is made, not after.

 

Btw, the Twins probably don't agree with you either, since they offered one hundred million or more.

[ewen21]

 

Saying it isn't proof doesn't prove anything. At the very least the Mauer contract is evidence that a long term contract for big $ is a huge risk. The risk in his case is that a player signed can be injured, or end up playing a position with numbers that don't justify big money. Slacking or not, he wasn't worth it.

For the record, I think Mauer's decline began in 2011.  He had a minor procedure on his knee (Russell Martin had the same one that offseason and had an AS season), but he prescribed "rest" for himself. I really think that Mauer did himself a disservice that offseason. He came into camp in 2011 looking like he hadn't done a thing and he really paid for it because he could not whip himself into shape after being on the couch for a few months.

 

I think 2011 was devastating to Mauer's psyche and I think much of it was due to his own inaction,

 

But whatever.  Not sure why this is being discussed now.  It's all water under the bridge

[twinssporto]

 

I am experiencing all 5 stages simultaneously.

 

Last night I got tossed out of Target for angrily trying to negotiate the price of "Market Pantry Monster Mix" with the young lady at the check out counter.   

 

Just so everyone knows... that type of behavior isn't me. I tried to explain to the police officer that it was a reaction to Darvish not signing with the Twins and the officer said it was no excuse in consideration of past Twins history. 

I totally understand.  We just got a brand new puppy on Friday and I'm even mad at the poor little thing.  Who gets angry at a puppy???

 

[jimmer]

 

Saying it isn't proof doesn't prove anything. At the very least the Mauer contract is evidence that a long term contract for big $ is a huge risk. The risk in his case is that a player signed can be injured, or end up playing a position with numbers that don't justify big money. Slacking or not, he wasn't worth it.

Yes, players can get injured. That can happen in the first year of a contract of a 4 year contract, the 4th year of an 8 year contract, the 2nd year of a contract of a 5 year contract. Doesn't mean the players are slacking.

 

When you own teams, you take on the risk that signing players to contracts, even ones that makes sense to do (like Mauer's), may end up not working out the way they want because injuries happen.It's that, or, you know, never keep any quality players past their first 6 years.

 

Better just to completely avoid going after quality FAs or signing anyone for any length of time.

 

 

[Riverbrian]

 

That's not a defense of the Twins. That is still misreading the player and market. If I nickel and dime on a house when I am willing to pay over asking price, and another buyer comes in with an asking price offer and I don't get the chance to counter, I don't get points for trying.

 

I wasn't defending the Twins...  I was saying... I don't believe we know no matter what we cobble together from the bits and pieces.I was agreeing with Nick.  

 

OveralI... I agree with you...

 

A Decent Plan B would be the only thing that explains the effort toward Darvish. 

[jimmer]

Mauer was having well on his way to having his 2nd best season of his career in 2013 before he got hurt.  This was after having a great bounce-back season in 2012. His decline didn't start in 2011. Anyone watching him play could see that.