Let's say the Twins do sign Ohtani and Darvish....

[DaveW]

At that point, you have to go all in, right? Not so much ALL IN FOR 2018, but ALL IN for 2018-2020.

If this happens, what else do you want the Twins to do?

My plan, you ask?

-Go out and get an elite closer: Wade Davis or Greg Holland.

-Go out and get one more good RP, one "solid" RP/Flyer RP
Basically two of:

Watson/Hunter/Kintzler/Swarzak/Liriano/Neshek/

-Go out and get an upgrade for 4th OF, Util guy and backup catcher.

If you don't wanna pay up for Wade Davis or Holland then dangle some prospects for some help.

[DocBauer]

Love your enthusiasm and can't disagree with what you have stated. But I am going to play the part of devil's advocate, to a degree.

 

1] With the way bullpens are being constructed and used, do the Twins really have to pay up for an elite closer? There are arms currently on the roster that range from interesting to good to beginning to establish themselves in 2017. And there are a few that appear OH so close to contributing. Someone like Davis is going to require a big contract over and above what you've already paid Darvish. While bullpen arms can be volatile, you could sign a pair of really good and reliable relievers like Shaw and McAfee for almost what Davis would cost.

 

2] With a quality and experienced #1 catcher, do we really need to sign anything more than a quality, decent guy or two for depth with Garver? He hits, has some power, a strong arm, and from the few times I watched him behind the plate in 2017, I thought he looked solid there.

 

3] I don't object to a quality 4th OF either. I was yelling and stomping my feet for one before 2017 began. But Grossman is a useful bat and proved he wasn't as bad defensively as he showed in 2016. (Boy do I wish he could play some 1B). Granite had a couple rough moments, but was also a rookie. He also showed defensive ability, some hit and OB ability, and seems to project as a nice role player with potential for at least a little more. And the starting three should start and play most every day, especially if the immensely talented Kepler can improve on hitting LH pitching.

 

Just tossing a few thoughts out there.

[DaveW]

 

Love your enthusiasm and can't disagree with what you have stated. But I am going to play the part of devil's advocate, to a degree.

1] With the way bullpens are being constructed and used, do the Twins really have to pay up for an elite closer? There are arms currently on the roster that range from interesting to good to beginning to establish themselves in 2017. And there are a few that appear OH so close to contributing. Someone like Davis is going to require a big contract over and above what you've already paid Darvish. While bullpen arms can be volatile, you could sign a pair of really good and reliable relievers like Shaw and McAfee for almost what Davis would cost.

2] With a quality and experienced #1 catcher, do we really need to sign anything more than a quality, decent guy or two for depth with Garver? He hits, has some power, a strong arm, and from the few times I watched him behind the plate in 2017, I thought he looked solid there.

3] I don't object to a quality 4th OF either. I was yelling and stomping my feet for one before 2017 began. But Grossman is a useful bat and proved he wasn't as bad defensively as he showed in 2016. (Boy do I wish he could play some 1B). Granite had a couple rough moments, but was also a rookie. He also showed defensive ability, some hit and OB ability, and seems to project as a nice role player with potential for at least a little more. And the starting three should start and play most every day, especially if the immensely talented Kepler can improve on hitting LH pitching.

Just tossing a few thoughts out there.

1. While I agree with the "closer is over-rated" train of thought, the Twins IMO simply don't have any elite or close to elite arms in the pen. While it doesn't have to be an "elite closer" I would want them to get a guy who can be a top 15 relief pitcher at the end of the year, regardless of his 'role'. I want the guy who can come in and get 6 outs, two games in a row in the ALCS or World Series. I just don't see that guy on the Twins roster as of now.

2. Garver is ok, but Castro is 'ok' as well. I just want another backup plan in place if either gets injured or fails. Maybe I'm just having PTSD from the Drew Butera backup years haha.

3.Yeah Grossman did better than I thought he was, he is a 100 OPS+ guy at the plate, but with a nice OBP. The problem is....the positives end there, he is a minus player on the basepath, and really not a good OF at all (though he did better than I thought he would). I would prefer the 4th OF be a guy that can play CF in a pinch if need be as well. I'd actually look to bring in Carlos Gomez to be the 4th OF, and have Grossman be a 5th OF type.

Gomez isn't superb by any means, but can still handle CF somewhat, still has a little pop (17 HR, 106 OPS+ in 100 games) and still has value on the base paths as a PR type as well. I also think Molitor would find a way to make him even better.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3.Yeah Grossman did better than I thought he was, he is a 100 OPS+ guy at the plate, but with a nice OBP. The problem is....the positives end there, he is a minus player on the basepath, and really not a good OF at all (though he did better than I thought he would). I would prefer the 4th OF be a guy that can play CF in a pinch if need be as well. I'd actually look to bring in Carlos Gomez to be the 4th OF, and have Grossman be a 5th OF type.

 

Gomez isn't superb by any means, but can still handle CF somewhat, still has a little pop (17 HR, 106 OPS+ in 100 games) and still has value on the base paths as a PR type as well. I also think Molitor would find a way to make him even better.

With Buxton, Kepler, Granite and Rosario all capable of playing CF, you want to add another CF?

 

I’d prefer a bat first type who can pass in RF and 1b.

[caninatl04]

I, too, applaud your enthusiasm. Should the above happen, Santa Claus' sled will bring the relief pitchers in from the bullpen.

 

But, to add to your questions:

 

Kintzler to Swarzak to Neshek just might compete with Tinker to Evers to Chance.

 

Yes, the Twins would need the wallet to be opened even wider for a couple of relievers. But, I concur that the difference between a closer like the Twins enjoyed on the cheap this year versus a $15 mill / per reliever isn't worth the money. This may be especially true given that there is a good chance one of the hard throwing reliever prospects might blossom into a closer.

 

Finally, and I apologize for the broken record, but Ryon Healey does have the best SLG / OPS against LHP among feasible 1B / Corner OF.

[tvagle]

Too much clapping going on in this thread...but enthusiasm is always a good thing

I agree...Darvish and Ohtani make for a multiple year window of winning

Here's two relievers added along with keeping the band together and the payroll commitment needed

 

[table]

Year
Total Salary
C Castro, Jason
1B Mauer, Joe
2B Dozier, Brian
3B Sano, Miguel
SS Polanco, Jorge
LF Rosario, Eddie
CF Buxton, Byron
RF Kepler, Max
DH Escobar, Eduardo
Starting Lineup
B Adrianza, Ehire
B Garver, Mitch
B Vargas, Kennys
B Granite, Zach
Bench
S Santana, Ervin
S Berrios, Jose
S Otani, Shohei
S Mejia, Adalberto
S Darvish, Yu
Starting Pitchers
BP Hildenberger, Trevor -  RH
BP Busenitz, Alan -  RH
BP Curtiss, John -  RH
BP Rogers, Taylor -  LH
BP Duffey, Tyler -  RH
BP Shaw, Bryan - RH
BP McGee, Jake - LH
Bull Pen
The Dead Pool
Park, Byung Ho
Hughes, Phil
Perkins, Glen
Nolasco, Ricky

Age
30
34
30
24
23
25
23
24
28

27
26
26
24

34
23
23
24
31

26
26
24
26
26
30
31
.
.
.
.
.
.

2018
$136.091M
$8.0M
$23.0M
$12.5M
$2.0M
$0.583M
$2.0M
$2.0M
$1.0M
$4.9M
$55.983M
$1.0M
$0.545M
$0.583M
$0.545M
$2.673M
$13.5M
$0.75M
$3.9M
$0.578M
$25.0M
$43.728M
$0.545M
$0.545M
$0.545M
$0.586M
$0.586M
$7.0M
$6.0M
$15.807M

$3.0M
$13.2M
$0.7M
$1.0M

2019
$138.15M
$8.0M
$11.0M
$14.0M
$8.0M
$1.0M
$3.0M
$8.0M
$2.0M
$3.0M
$58.0M
$0.65M
$1.5M
$1.0M
$0.7M
$3.85M
$14.0M
$1.5M
$0.6M
$1.0M
$25.0M
$42.1M
$0.6M
$0.6M
$0.6M
$1.6M
$1.6M
$7.0M
$6.0M
$18.0M

$3.0M
$13.2M
.
.

2020
$121.8M
$3.0M
$10.0M
$14.5M
$10.0M
$3.0M
$5.0M
$11.0M
$4.0M
$0.7M
$61.2M
$0.7M
$2.0M
$2.5M
$0.7M
$5.9M
$0.7M
$4.0M
$0.7M
$2.0M
$25.0M
$32.4M
$1.6M
$1.6M
$0.6M
$2.5M
$2.5M
$7.0M
$6.0M
$21.8M

$0.5M
.
.
.

[/table]

 

Names may change and dollars may move...but there's the plan for the first 3 years

Park's money still figured into total Payroll

 

[DaveW]

 

With Buxton, Kepler, Granite and Rosario all capable of playing CF, you want to add another CF?

I’d prefer a bat first type who can pass in RF and 1b.

Can never have enough defense. I'm not sure Kepler can handle CF realistically, and speaking of 1st base..... Kepler could handle that as well.

Rosario could, but then suddenly you lose an elite corner OF as well. 
Granite is a nice depth piece, but not sold on him to ever hit enough to even be a 5th OF type.

Gomez can hit/have enough pop to fill in at RF, and is still a 1.8 WAR player as a part time guy. 

If they can get Werth, I'm all for it, but I don't see it happening, I see Werth looking for a much clearer path towards regular playing time. With Gomez, he won't start a massive amount of games, but will appear in a nice amount and would hold his own.

If not Gomez, someone similar, you can never have enough solid defenders.

[DaveW]

 

Too much clapping going on in this thread...but enthusiasm is always a good thing

I agree...Darvish and Ohtani make for a multiple year window of winning

Here's two relievers added along with keeping the band together and the payroll commitment needed

 

[table]

Year
Total Salary
C Castro, Jason
1B Mauer, Joe
2B Dozier, Brian
3B Sano, Miguel
SS Polanco, Jorge
LF Rosario, Eddie
CF Buxton, Byron
RF Kepler, Max
DH Escobar, Eduardo
Starting Lineup
B Adrianza, Ehire
B Garver, Mitch
B Vargas, Kennys
B Granite, Zach
Bench
S Santana, Ervin
S Berrios, Jose
S Otani, Shohei
S Mejia, Adalberto
S Darvish, Yu
Starting Pitchers
BP Hildenberger, Trevor -  RH
BP Busenitz, Alan -  RH
BP Curtiss, John -  RH
BP Rogers, Taylor -  LH
BP Duffey, Tyler -  RH
BP Shaw, Bryan - RH
BP McGee, Jake - LH
Bull Pen
The Dead Pool
Park, Byung Ho
Hughes, Phil
Perkins, Glen
Nolasco, Ricky

Age
30
34
30
24
23
25
23
24
28

27
26
26
24

34
23
23
24
31

26
26
24
26
26
30
31
.
.
.
.
.
.

2018
$136.091M
$8.0M
$23.0M
$12.5M
$2.0M
$0.583M
$2.0M
$2.0M
$1.0M
$4.9M
$55.983M
$1.0M
$0.545M
$0.583M
$0.545M
$2.673M
$13.5M
$0.75M
$3.9M
$0.578M
$25.0M
$43.728M
$0.545M
$0.545M
$0.545M
$0.586M
$0.586M
$7.0M
$6.0M
$15.807M

$3.0M
$13.2M
$0.7M
$1.0M

2019
$138.15M
$8.0M
$11.0M
$14.0M
$8.0M
$1.0M
$3.0M
$8.0M
$2.0M
$3.0M
$58.0M
$0.65M
$1.5M
$1.0M
$0.7M
$3.85M
$14.0M
$1.5M
$0.6M
$1.0M
$25.0M
$42.1M
$0.6M
$0.6M
$0.6M
$1.6M
$1.6M
$7.0M
$6.0M
$18.0M

$3.0M
$13.2M
.
.

2020
$121.8M
$3.0M
$10.0M
$14.5M
$10.0M
$3.0M
$5.0M
$11.0M
$4.0M
$0.7M
$61.2M
$0.7M
$2.0M
$2.5M
$0.7M
$5.9M
$0.7M
$4.0M
$0.7M
$2.0M
$25.0M
$32.4M
$1.6M
$1.6M
$0.6M
$2.5M
$2.5M
$7.0M
$6.0M
$21.8M

$0.5M
.
.
.

[/table]

 

Names may change and dollars may move...but there's the plan

None of those payroll amounts seem too out of whack to be honest. Also there are always way to shave a few bucks here and there. $138 next year may seem a little high, but thats where Thad and the wonderkid come into play. I have a feeling Pohlad would be 'ok' with $110-$120, they just need to convince him that long term it's best to invest now. Also I don't see Mauer coming back to the Twins for 21 million in 2019/2020, the Twins won't offer that more than likely. Though if he does earn/command that type of salary...well then he likely had a MONSTER 2018.


Also with Darvish and Ohtani on the squad, they would make quite a bit of money I imagine from Japan, and a lesser (but shouldn't be ignored) amount from the Iranian-American crowd as well.

[tvagle]

Next 3 years

 

[table]

Year
Total Salary
C Castro, Jason
1B Mauer, Joe
2B Dozier, Brian
3B Sano, Miguel
SS Polanco, Jorge
LF Rosario, Eddie
CF Buxton, Byron
RF Kepler, Max
DH Escobar, Eduardo
Starting Lineup
B Adrianza, Ehire
B Garver, Mitch
B Vargas, Kennys
B Granite, Zach
Bench
S Santana, Ervin
S Berrios, Jose
S Otani, Shohei
S Mejia, Adalberto
S Darvish, Yu
Starting Pitchers
BP Hildenberger, Trevor -  RH
BP Busenitz, Alan -  RH
BP Curtiss, John -  RH
BP Rogers, Taylor -  LH
BP Duffey, Tyler -  RH
BP Shaw, Bryan - RH
BP McGee, Jake - LH
Bull Pen
The Dead Pool
Park, Byung Ho
Hughes, Phil
Perkins, Glen
Nolasco, Ricky
2021
$151.7M
$4.0M
$9.0M
$15.0M
$18.0M
$6.0M
$10.0M
$18.0M
$6.0M
$0.7M
$86.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$2.8M
$0.7M
$8.0M
$8.0M
$4.0M
$25.0M
$45.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$7.0M
$6.0M
$16.5M
.
.
.
.
.

2022
$167.4M
$4.0M
$0.7M
$14.0M
$20.0M
$10.0M
$15.0M
$21.0M
$8.0M
$0.7M
$93.4M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$2.8M
$0.7M
$12.0M
$12.0M
$5.0M
$25.0M
$54.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$7.0M
$6.0M
$16.5M
.
.
.
.
.

2023
$175.4M
$4.0M
$0.7M
$12.0M
$20.0M
$12.0M
$15.0M
$24.0M
$0.7M
$1.0M
$89.4M
$0.7M
$1.0M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$3.1M
$0.7M
$20.0M
$20.0M
$0.7M
$25.0M
$66.4M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$7.0M
$6.0M
$16.5M
.
.
.
.
.
[/table]

[DaveW]

 

Next 3 years

 

[table]

Year
Total Salary
C Castro, Jason
1B Mauer, Joe
2B Dozier, Brian
3B Sano, Miguel
SS Polanco, Jorge
LF Rosario, Eddie
CF Buxton, Byron
RF Kepler, Max
DH Escobar, Eduardo
Starting Lineup
B Adrianza, Ehire
B Garver, Mitch
B Vargas, Kennys
B Granite, Zach
Bench
S Santana, Ervin
S Berrios, Jose
S Otani, Shohei
S Mejia, Adalberto
S Darvish, Yu
Starting Pitchers
BP Hildenberger, Trevor -  RH
BP Busenitz, Alan -  RH
BP Curtiss, John -  RH
BP Rogers, Taylor -  LH
BP Duffey, Tyler -  RH
BP Shaw, Bryan - RH
BP McGee, Jake - LH
Bull Pen
The Dead Pool
Park, Byung Ho
Hughes, Phil
Perkins, Glen
Nolasco, Ricky

2021
$151.7M
$4.0M
$9.0M
$15.0M
$18.0M
$6.0M
$10.0M
$18.0M
$6.0M
$0.7M
$86.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$2.8M
$0.7M
$8.0M
$8.0M
$4.0M
$25.0M
$45.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$7.0M
$6.0M
$16.5M
.
.
.
.
.


2022
$167.4M
$4.0M
$0.7M
$14.0M
$20.0M
$10.0M
$15.0M
$21.0M
$8.0M
$0.7M
$93.4M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$2.8M
$0.7M
$12.0M
$12.0M
$5.0M
$25.0M
$54.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$7.0M
$6.0M
$16.5M
.
.
.
.
.


2023
$175.4M
$4.0M
$0.7M
$12.0M
$20.0M
$12.0M
$15.0M
$24.0M
$0.7M
$1.0M
$89.4M
$0.7M
$1.0M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$3.1M
$0.7M
$20.0M
$20.0M
$0.7M
$25.0M
$66.4M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$0.7M
$7.0M
$6.0M
$16.5M
.
.
.
.
.
[/table]

I really appreciate the work done on this (seriously), but it's hard to estimate these things 4+ years out like this. Berrios making 20 million? That must mean he is performing very very well etc Even then, these salaries don't seem super insane given inflation and assuming all those guys have become real long term assets.

Also guys like Castro certainly will be gone for cheaper options, also Nick Gordon and other top prospects can shave quite a bit off of a lot of those costs as well (think of what we could get for Polanco in a year or two if he continues to progress and Gordon is ready!)

Eddie a $15mm and Buxton a $24mm year type players?

Good problem to have in 2023

[tvagle]

 

None of those payroll amounts seem too out of whack to be honest. Also there are always way to shave a few bucks here and there. $138 next year may seem a little high, but thats where Thad and the wonderkid come into play. I have a feeling Pohlad would be 'ok' with $110-$120, they just need to convince him that long term it's best to invest now. Also I don't see Mauer coming back to the Twins for 21 million in 2019/2020, the Twins won't offer that more than likely. Though if he does earn/command that type of salary...well then he likely had a MONSTER 2018.

In order to support/keep the core intact there will be some minimum wage players on the bench and in the pen...which is why I don't believe a trade of prospects at this point is the best way to acquire a starter

 

Darvish can make the ball move...as his velo drops with age being able to spin-it makes him a better than most candidate to still get guys out...now if he loses control as well as velo, I'm deleting all these posts!

 

If Mauer rides off to his hidden hunting ground Rooker or the Rule-5 returnee Lewin Diaz will save the club $10M at 1B in the examples above

Don't extend Dozier and save a few more Million in 2018 and ensuing years...should be a fun hot-stove season as long as someone doesn't start a Trade Dozier 4 bazillion page topic   

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Can never have enough defense. I'm not sure Kepler can handle CF realistically, and speaking of 1st base..... Kepler could handle that as well.

 

Rosario could, but then suddenly you lose an elite corner OF as well.

Granite is a nice depth piece, but not sold on him to ever hit enough to even be a 5th OF type.

 

Gomez can hit/have enough pop to fill in at RF, and is still a 1.8 WAR player as a part time guy.

 

If they can get Werth, I'm all for it, but I don't see it happening, I see Werth looking for a much clearer path towards regular playing time. With Gomez, he won't start a massive amount of games, but will appear in a nice amount and would hold his own.

 

If not Gomez, someone similar, you can never have enough solid defenders.

Kepler is terrible against lefties, so you don’t really gain an advantage over Mauer when a lefty starts...

 

I’m not against Gomez, I just don’t value the fielding part enough relative to pitching, that I’d spend that money on him, potentially not spending it on pitching.

 

This acquisition should be late in the off-season.

[laloesch]

 

At that point, you have to go all in, right? Not so much ALL IN FOR 2018, but ALL IN for 2018-2020.

If this happens, what else do you want the Twins to do?

My plan, you ask?

-Go out and get an elite closer: Wade Davis or Greg Holland.

-Go out and get one more good RP, one "solid" RP/Flyer RP
Basically two of:

Watson/Hunter/Kintzler/Swarzak/Liriano/Neshek/

-Go out and get an upgrade for 4th OF, Util guy and backup catcher.

If you don't wanna pay up for Wade Davis or Holland then dangle some prospects for some help.

 

I wouldn't mind seeing them bring back Kintzler and adding Wade Davis.  That would make a huge difference for this team in 2018 in and of itself.  I'm not optimistic that they will sign Darvish or Ohtani realistically but if they can sign Lance Lynn and pry Jake Odorizzi or Alex Cobb away from the Rays without looting the farm it would be a successful off-season and would not bust the budget by any stretch of the imagination. 

 

I for one am not super excited about handing out a big long contract to Brian Dozier.  I know he's had two good seasons in a row, but he's not a UFA until age 32 in 2019 and we have a couple of guys in the wings that could do his job and not cost 15 - 20 mil a year or whatever he's projected to get in 2019.   I  really hope they don't forget about Gordon if they splurge and sign Brian to a 4 or 5 year deal.  Otherwise just trade him to a team that needs a SS/2B which would be the Rays.    

[amjgt]

In order to keep payroll reasonable (in the eyes of the Pohlads) I would think relief help would be added by trade. No prospects would be required for Darvish and Ohtani, so we could spare a couple to help the 'pen, so we aren't paying full retail FA prices

[amjgt]

Additionally, our higher end pitching prospects can get their feet wet in the bullpen rather than being rushed into the rotation.

[Kelly Vance]

Dream on about Yu and Ohtani. This is their big chance to clean up. They won't go to a small market team. Oh would clean up in NY on endorsements and off field marketing. But maybe he likes walleye fishing.  

 

Twins need to get two solid starting pitchers and at least one dominant closer to go with two other solid BP arms. I could see Davis and bring back Kinz for set up.  

 

Don't extend Doze, at least not yet. He's got two years to go and by then he may decide staying in Mpls and not moving his kids to another school is worth something and sign for less than market. I think Granite can be a 4th OF/PR. He is at least fast and a good defender but needs to hit for more power.

 

Im not worried about BU catcher. This is a make or break year for Vargas

 

 

 

 

[70charger]

 

Don't extend Doze, at least not yet. He's got two years to go and by then he may decide staying in Mpls and not moving his kids to another school is worth something and sign for less than market. 

 

He's got one, and even if he decided to give a hometown discount, it had better be pretty damn steep given the middle infield talent we have waiting in the wings, combined with my natural wariness at extending a second baseman until he's 36.

[DocBauer]

Not worried about extending Dozier, unless his demands are unreasonable. At $12-14M (variable on each year also, of course) he doesn't break the bank. Even if you extend Mauer for 2 years at roughly $10M per, you are still cutting overall cost from what they will make combined in 2018.

 

I'm OK with Garver at backup catcher.

 

In this scenario, I don't see the money for Davis as a closer. For what he will command, you could almost sign 2 high quality pen arms, (And there a few of them out there). I really hesitate to trade prospects for pen arms, but am amenable if we really did sign both starters as it costs dollars, not prospects.

[Mike Sixel]

I'll move back to Minnesota if this happens.....*

 

* This promise as real as any political promise.

[DaveW]

 

In order to keep payroll reasonable (in the eyes of the Pohlads) I would think relief help would be added by trade. No prospects would be required for Darvish and Ohtani, so we could spare a couple to help the 'pen, so we aren't paying full retail FA prices

Yeah, good point. I think they would probably bring in a Kintzler type on the FA market (2 year, 9 mil?)
And then if they want a great to elite arm they likely would explore the trade market.