Twins Starters in 2018 - Van Hagar Edition

[tvagle]

Seems to me there are few camps in the debate over what the Twins should do about the Starting Pitching:

 

1) Sign a FA (or 2) that fit the budget and is hopefully better than last years starters
2) Trade for a young, controllable, established Ace with prospects of unknown potential, but fair to high rankings in the minors, along with a MLB starter or 2

3) Roll with the young prospects and continue wishing and hoping they are more than the Real Deal

4) Sign (not just attempt) a Free Agent that has shown shutdown, Cy Young performance in the past

 

These all have been, and will continue to be discussed, debated and moderated until next April ad nauseam

 

So, having gathered all the firewood I'll need for at least the next couple of days...here's some thoughts on each approach

 

Sign a FA pitcher the will fit the Budget

 

To me, and Mr. Einstein, this is the definition of insanity...doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Sure there have been some good hits along the way...one year of Phil Hughes, Big Erv's rejuvenation...as well as far to many misses that I won't list here (too hard on my own psyche)

 

Can we please Stop the Insanity!

 

Or maybe this is a good thing for Twins Daily, it will provide pages of consternation and veiled accusations questioning the intelligence of each poster (as in person who posts) and the wisdom of the FO. This approach does keep expectations down and is the safest route to 81 wins of the bunch...UGH!

 

Trade for an young Ace

 

One can only guess what the Rays would find acceptable for Chris Archer, but by most accounts it'll be a load. Does it really make the Twins better to send Rosario/Kepler, Gonsalves, Gordon and Enlow to the Rays for a guy who, while dominant, was worth 1.2 WAR last year and would directly affect 34-36 games next year? To me that's just too much potential for too much uncertainty...Gerrit Cole, while an awesome add, would cost as much or more in trade and is headed for higher salary through arbitration than Archer is under contract for

 

If you're willing to trade away a chunk of the present along with the future for a young, controllable Ace, you're putting an awful lot of stress on one guys elbow

 

Roll with the Prospects

 

Being good Minnesotan's, or at least fans of the local 9, we all have hope born into us...hope that sooner or later the snow will melt...hope that it's not the heat it's the humidity...hope that the Vikings will make it to the Super Bowl knowing that they will only disappoint us once again and hope that all the good things written and said about the Twins prospects will come to fruition and the negatives, well they are just outsiders dismissing our peeps because of their East/West coast bias

 

I believe that Gonsalves is and will be a good MLB "Pitcher", he may not light up the gun with triple digits, but I don't recall Sweet Music or Johan doing that either...pitchers pitch, throwers throw guys who do both are so rare that's why they are already making $30M/year...My point here is, no one knows who will become the next Kershaw or Verlander but their teams held on to them (until they got too expensive) and grew with them but it's a crap shoot, DBacks traded a young Max Scherzer for Ian Kennedy and Edwin Jackson probably not a win for them

 

Given the choice, I'd spend monetary resources before I'd spend talent resources to acquire an Ace....

 

What if we took Van Hagar's advice and had the "Best of Both Worlds"

 

Buy an Ace...spend the money that's been promised or at least suggested, on a proven, but older, #1 starter. The Twins can keep the young prospects that might grow into stars who will provide us joy and happiness for the foreseeable future (or 3-6 years depending on arbitration). Best of Both Worlds, have your cake and eat it too. Ace pitcher for a couple of years to mentor younger pitchers and it shows the whole team the FO recognizes the time is now to make a leap (you can only use the "FO gave up on us" motivation once a generation) and go for more than competing for a Wildcard spot

 

It's never a good time to spend more money in any business but there is a right time...visionary leadership plans for the right time and when they see it on the horizon they seize the opportunity and reap the rewards in the future

 

Invest in the present while not mortgaging the future

 

We now return to the Twins Daily version of "Waiting for Godot" (credit to Thrylos for the awesome correlation)

[old nurse]

Awesome correlation? Are the Twinsdaily posters then Vladimir and Estragon?  Rambling and bickering about nothing,

[tvagle]

 

Awesome correlation? Are the Twinsdaily posters then Vladimir and Estragon?  Rambling and bickering about nothing,

 

That my friend, much like the story, is totally up to you to interpret as you wish

[Jacksson]

Let's trade an starting caliber outfielder for an up and coming power arm who is just ready to turn the corner and become a MLB ace. This worked so very well with the trades for Alex Meyer and Trevor May. Now, just a mere 5 years later they are questionable to ever fufill their potential

[jimmer]

 

Let's trade an starting caliber outfielder for an up and coming power arm who is just ready to turn the corner and become a MLB ace. This worked so very well with the trades for Alex Meyer and Trevor May. Now, just a mere 5 years later they are questionable to ever fufill their potential

We have a different FO now.

[beckmt]

Picking the correct pitcher is always the issue, but to do nothing but hope for prospects will only have most of the core level by the time the prospects arrive.  It will be 2019 -2020 before one of the young starters becomes what we need,  we need help sooner than that.

[Thrylos]

 

Let's trade an starting caliber outfielder for an up and coming power arm who is just ready to turn the corner and become a MLB ace. This worked so very well with the trades for Alex Meyer and Trevor May. Now, just a mere 5 years later they are questionable to ever fufill their potential

 

May and Meyer were not MLB-ready when they became Twins. They were in A+ and AA respectively.   The whole idea is to trade for MLB-ready young starters.

 

Starting caliber outfielders are easily obtainable as free agents.  One of Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, Melky Cabrera, Jay Bruce, Lorenzo Cain, Colby Rasmus etc might actually be an improvement over Kepler for 2018

[drjim]

May and Meyer were not MLB-ready when they became Twins. They were in A+ and AA respectively. The whole idea is to trade for MLB-ready young starters.

 

Starting caliber outfielders are easily obtainable as free agents. One of Carlos Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, Melky Cabrera, Jay Bruce, Lorenzo Cain, Colby Rasmus etc might actually be an improvement over Kepler for 2018

If the second paragraph is true, why would a team trade mlb ready pitching when they could just as easily sign one of those guys and keep their pitching.

[Thrylos]

 

If the second paragraph is true, why would a team trade mlb ready pitching when they could just as easily sign one of those guys and keep their pitching.

 

Teams that want to cut cost and rebuild would not be after those guys, but after controllable talent.  Rays, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, A's, Padres, from the medium to small market teams and even Atlanta, Mets, Phillies, and Toronto from the large market teams might be on that mode...

 

And why would they give young controllable talent?  A. because it might be about to get expensive via arbitration and B. getting 3-4 players back accelerates their rebuilding process.

[drjim]

Teams that want to cut cost and rebuild would not be after those guys, but after controllable talent. Rays, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, A's, Padres, from the medium to small market teams and even Atlanta, Mets, Phillies, and Toronto from the large market teams might be on that mode...

 

And why would they give young controllable talent? A. because it might be about to get expensive via arbitration and B. getting 3-4 players back accelerates their rebuilding process.

I think I interpreted mlb ready pitching wrong, I figured you meant young and just breaking in.

 

I agree teams will trade a pitcher with a couple years of control (ie Cole) for an mlb OF, or someone else might move for a massive package.

[tvagle]

 

Picking the correct pitcher is always the issue, but to do nothing but hope for prospects will only have most of the core level by the time the prospects arrive.  It will be 2019 -2020 before one of the young starters becomes what we need,  we need help sooner than that.

 

Hope I wasn't that confusing...my point isn't to wait on prospects rather to Spend $$$ not players on the missing link (#1 Starter) as a win-win should the prospects surprise and over perform current projections

 

Spend dollars on what you don't currently have...not more of the same

 

The time is now to make a NEW kind of move

[Guest]

Re Archer trade: Rays probably aren’t looking for an outfielder- Dickerson, Kiermaier, Souza - and will want present value, not future potential. Rumor is that Addison Russell is the match for Archer. That would be tough for the Twins to match.

[old nurse]

 

Teams that want to cut cost and rebuild would not be after those guys, but after controllable talent.  Rays, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, A's, Padres, from the medium to small market teams and even Atlanta, Mets, Phillies, and Toronto from the large market teams might be on that mode...

 

And why would they give young controllable talent?  A. because it might be about to get expensive via arbitration and B. getting 3-4 players back accelerates their rebuilding process.

KC won a championship with a 2 year rental, but in the longer term it bit them.

[old nurse]

 

 

Let's trade an starting caliber outfielder for an up and coming power arm who is just ready to turn the corner and become a MLB ace. This worked so very well with the trades for Alex Meyer and Trevor May. Now, just a mere 5 years later they are questionable to ever fufill their potential

Revere for May at this point is still an even trade.   The risk adverse Ryan gambled and lost on Meyer.  Span had a couple good years with the Nationals, If he wasn't traded the Twins still would not have been much different of a team. People want the GM to take a gamble, but only if it works.

[drjim]

KC won a championship with a 2 year rental, but in the longer term it bit them.

They won the year after he left. It was 2 true rentals that put them over the top. I imagine the franchise and fan base regret nothing.

[Han Joelo]

The definition of insanity is claiming the definition of insanity is claiming the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results...wait. Actually it is this:

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.psychologytoday.com/blog/in-therapy/200907/the-definition-insanity-is%3famp

 

Worth a read. As for this discussion, I vote the latter. Or the former. Just win baby.

[old nurse]

 

They won the year after he left. It was 2 true rentals that put them over the top. I imagine the franchise and fan base regret nothing.

They show their loyalty and support by not coming back to the park

[Major League Ready]

 

They show their loyalty and support by not coming back to the park

 

What will the next decade be like for KC.  There is no way they are competing with the Indians the next couple years.  The Twins and White Sox are positioned to be good for an extended period.  The Royals don't have the revenue to maintain their current roster.  They also probably wont be so bad that they are getting top 5 picks.  Are they going to repeat the 20 years of futility they had before this very brief run as a contender?  That is sure not what I want for our team.  Let's follow the Houston model.

 

Thankfully, our F/O appears to have a long-term approach.  It sure does seem like a lot of people have forgot how miserable this team was to watch for several years.  No thanks!  A shields type trade is the last thing I want to see.  A Cueto type deal is much more appealing.  It was not nearly as expensive and they knew the team was a serious contender. 

 

[amjgt]

My camp is simple... trade for Cole using Kepler as one of the main pieces. Then sign JD Martinez to fill the OF hole we just created. That puts the Twins over what their likely budget is, but not really by THAT much, and solves our Ace Problem and our Middle-of-the-order-RH- Bat Problem

[mikelink45]

I love the winter speculation.  Who is a good pitcher and is it repeatable.  Remember how great Hughes was - for one year.  Who wouldn't want him in the rotation so we spent the money and have a wonderful DL payroll.  Price is out of this world and next he is out of the rotation - for more money than all my family tree combined - in the past and the future.  We signed bad pitchers and they pitched badly, but seldom can we truly predict a pitchers future - I think the Mets expected Johann to continue his HOF career and not flame out.

 

So given that and my natural tendencies - develop the young arms.  I still contend we are two years from WS contention and in that time we can find out what we really need before we blow up the system and the bank.

[USAFChief]

My camp is simple... trade for Cole using Kepler as one of the main pieces. Then sign JD Martinez to fill the OF hole we just created. That puts the Twins over what their likely budget is, but not really by THAT much, and solves our Ace Problem and our Middle-of-the-order-RH- Bat Problem

Add in a couple really good bullpen arm acquisitions, and a cheap FA flyer starter candidate or two with big arms and I would be satisfied with that off season.

[ashbury]

The definition of insanity is claiming the definition of insanity is claiming the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results...wait. Actually it is this:

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.psychologytoday.com/blog/in-therapy/200907/the-definition-insanity-is%3famp

 

Worth a read.

He failed to explore the ramifications of Schroedinger's Cat.

 

Anyway, next I want to see this writer's hawt taek on A Rolling Stone Gathers No Moss.

[tvagle]

 

The definition of insanity is claiming the definition of insanity is claiming the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results...wait. Actually it is this:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.psychologytoday.com/blog/in-therapy/200907/the-definition-insanity-is%3famp

Worth a read. As for this discussion, I vote the latter. Or the former. Just win baby.

Thanks for this...distracted me from watching Viking offense 2.0 otherwise known as the Cleveland Browns

 

At the risk of being persistent...throwing a 2 yard pass on 3rd and 4 seems to be the definition of...failure?

[Squirrel]

This ... 

 

My camp is simple... trade for Cole using Kepler as one of the main pieces. Then sign JD Martinez to fill the OF hole we just created. That puts the Twins over what their likely budget is, but not really by THAT much, and solves our Ace Problem and our Middle-of-the-order-RH- Bat Problem

 

plus this ... 

 

Add in a couple really good bullpen arm acquisitions, and a cheap FA flyer starter candidate or two with big arms and I would be satisfied with that off season.

 

equals concur.