Sickels Top 20

[drjim]

Let the prospect season begin:

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/10/24/16537288/minnesota-twins-top-20-prospects-for-2018

 

Couple thoughts:

-He's high on Rooker

-I like the ranking of Javier

-I think he's a little high on Littell, not high enough on Thorpe

-Jumping on the Baddoo train

 

This is a high beta system going into the year. If things break right, could be very strong by this time next year, or could really flame out.

[Thrylos]

He overrates Gordon who might end up out of SS and at a corner OF, and never had a .750 OPS in 3 seasons as a pro.  Same with Kiriloff.  If these guys were not 1st round picks, they would not be there.

Gonsalves is also overrated IMHO.  Enlow underrated.  I think that I might have him ahead of Gonsalves at this point.  Baddoo and Diaz underrated.   Cannot compare Baddoo with Kiriloff, their ceiling and on the field performance and rank them that way. 

[iastfan112]

I'm on board with the Littell ranking, thought folks were significantly underrating him after the Garcia trade.

[bluechipper]

Kohl Stewart not even ranked in the top 20 anymore. That is surprising to me.

[drjim]

 

He overrates Gordon who might end up out of SS and at a corner OF, and never had a .750 OPS in 3 seasons as a pro.  Same with Kiriloff.  If these guys were not 1st round picks, they would not be there.

Gonsalves is also overrated IMHO.  Enlow underrated.  I think that I might have him ahead of Gonsalves at this point.  Baddoo and Diaz underrated.   Cannot compare Baddoo with Kiriloff, their ceiling and on the field performance and rank them that way. 

 

If Gordon is a corner OF, he's basically a non-prospect. But he's hit enough for a middle infielder considering his age at each level.

 

I would agree with you on Kiriloff.

[Mike Sixel]

It will be a lot longer rebuild if they missed on Gordon, Stewart, Jay and Kiriloff......let's hope not.....

 

I never see these guys play, I can only go on what others say on line and stats....but Badoo seems under rated as a rule. And I am a big Thorpe believer for some reason.

[Thrylos]

 

 

I never see these guys play, I can only go on what others say on line and stats....but Badoo seems under rated as a rule. And I am a big Thorpe believer for some reason.

 

Sometimes, you don't even have to see them play.  Baddoo looks like Adrian Peterson on his heyday...

[kab21]

 

He overrates Gordon who might end up out of SS and at a corner OF, and never had a .750 OPS in 3 seasons as a pro.  Same with Kiriloff.  If these guys were not 1st round picks, they would not be there.

 

And I thought I was the low guy on Gordon all season...

I think this is a very fair ranking of Gordon (hanging onto a B+ ranking). The defensive concerns are there but not nearly to the extent that you mention/downgrade. My concern is the K rate for a modest power hitter. Way too high at this point (he's young but...) and definitely a reason why everyone must temper their expectations about him being an option next season or even counting on him the following season.

 

I also love it how you mention that he hasn't had a .750 OPS. Nice cutoff considering that he just had a .749 OPS.

 

I have no problem including him as a centerpiece in a trade for a legit good SP though.

[beckmt]

Was a little surprised at the Romero rating, I had him higher than a #3 starter.  Still with the comment of having a lot of C+ depth in this system, it may be time to adding some some of these C+ prospects to trades for pitching.

[drjim]

It will be a lot longer rebuild if they missed on Gordon, Stewart, Jay and Kiriloff......let's hope not.....

 

I never see these guys play, I can only go on what others say on line and stats....but Badoo seems under rated as a rule. And I am a big Thorpe believer for some reason.

The rebuild is over. The consequence on missing on all those guys will be making it harder to supplement the current core and/or turn it over. The difference between being a borderline playoff contender and a legit World Series threat.

[sthpstm]

 

Sometimes, you don't even have to see them play.  Baddoo looks like Adrian Peterson on his heyday...

There seems to be some agreement on Baddoo. This from a Fantasy focus...

https://www.faketeams.com/2017/10/23/16520130/akil-baddoo-minnesota-twins-prospect-sleeper-dynasty

[Mr. Brooks]

Was a little surprised at the Romero rating, I had him higher than a #3 starter. Still with the comment of having a lot of C+ depth in this system, it may be time to adding some some of these C+ prospects to trades for pitching.

C+ prospects don't move the needle on a trade.

[bluechipper]

 

And I thought I was the low guy on Gordon all season...

I think this is a very fair ranking of Gordon (hanging onto a B+ ranking). The defensive concerns are there but not nearly to the extent that you mention/downgrade. My concern is the K rate for a modest power hitter. Way too high at this point (he's young but...) and definitely a reason why everyone must temper their expectations about him being an option next season or even counting on him the following season.

 

I also love it how you mention that he hasn't had a .750 OPS. Nice cutoff considering that he just had a .749 OPS.

 

I have no problem including him as a centerpiece in a trade for a legit good SP though.

The .174 batting average against lefties this past year is very concerning as well. I'd love to include him in a trade for a pitcher.

[drjim]

 

C+ prospects don't move the needle on a trade.

 

No they don't.

[Bob Sacamento]

 

He overrates Gordon who might end up out of SS and at a corner OF, and never had a .750 OPS in 3 seasons as a pro.  Same with Kiriloff.  If these guys were not 1st round picks, they would not be there.

Gonsalves is also overrated IMHO.  Enlow underrated.  I think that I might have him ahead of Gonsalves at this point.  Baddoo and Diaz underrated.   Cannot compare Baddoo with Kiriloff, their ceiling and on the field performance and rank them that way. 

Yeah I don't know where you get Gordon ending up at a corner OF, I have literally watched him play since he was a 15 year old and have never gotten any indication from scouts, coaches, and evaluators that he's anything but a middle infielder.  There has been plenty of talk since HS that the further he matures and develops that 2B might be a better fit but his footwork and arm are plus for the infield.  Nicky and Kiriloff are there not because they were first round picks but because of their pedigree they have built up in the scouting community and their future projection which in turn did make them first rounders.

 

But yes I do agree that Gonsalves is overranked yet his ranking seems more based on his high floor not his high ceiling. Steve is looking more and more like a dependable #3/#4 LHSP.

 

Enlow is underranked, Sickels says his velo is inconsistent but he was very consistent in the GCL, I know I saw him start multiple times at the same speed if not stronger later in the year.  Part of the reason he was held out of early GCL was that he was building arm strength back after an extended time off.

 

Romero is ranked adequately, and the more and more I think about it he seems like a golden pick to end up in the backend of the bullpen.  His FB/SL combo with his demeanor make him an excellent candidate to end up closing ballgames for years to come.  Honestly, he could do that to start the 2018 season.

 

As for Baddoo, great kid and as I've said numerous times he's completely shocked the Twins in what they thought they were getting when they drafted him.  I saw Akil back in 2015 at the WWBA with the Braves Scout Team, he was a quick twitch athlete who clubs saw as more of a slasher and burner and what they got is a potential power/speed combo that can put up 20/20+ numbers.  His biggest knock is that he has a below average arm, where he's more of a CF/LF. Here's Baddoo before he was drafted and looking like NFL RB

  

 

 

 

 

[markos]

Where do I sign up to get on the Baddoo bandwagon?

[beckmt]

 

C+ prospects don't move the needle on a trade.

They are the lottery tickets that everyone talks about.

[Mr. Brooks]

They are the lottery tickets that everyone talks about.

I disagree. To me lottery ticket has more to do with affiliate level and upside.

Lewis is the type of lottery ticket that could move the needle in a trade.

 

Note: I'm talking about moving the needle on a major trade. Obviously you can get a Brandon Kintzler or Jaime Garcia rental, etc. for one of those C+ guys.

[drjim]

 

Yeah I don't know where you get Gordon ending up at a corner OF, I have literally watched him play since he was a 15 year old and have never gotten any indication from scouts, coaches, and evaluators that he's anything but a middle infielder.  There has been plenty of talk since HS that the further he matures and develops that 2B might be a better fit but his footwork and arm are plus for the infield.  Nicky and Kiriloff are there not because they were first round picks but because of their pedigree they have built up in the scouting community and their future projection which in turn did make them first rounders.

 

But yes I do agree that Gonsalves is overranked yet his ranking seems more based on his high floor not his high ceiling. Steve is looking more and more like a dependable #3/#4 LHSP.

 

Enlow is underranked, Sickels says his velo is inconsistent but he was very consistent in the GCL, I know I saw him start multiple times at the same speed if not stronger later in the year.  Part of the reason he was held out of early GCL was that he was building arm strength back after an extended time off.

 

Romero is ranked adequately, and the more and more I think about it he seems like a golden pick to end up in the backend of the bullpen.  His FB/SL combo with his demeanor make him an excellent candidate to end up closing ballgames for years to come.  Honestly, he could do that to start the 2018 season.

 

As for Baddoo, great kid and as I've said numerous times he's completely shocked the Twins in what they thought they were getting when they drafted him.  I saw Akil back in 2015 at the WWBA with the Braves Scout Team, he was a quick twitch athlete who clubs saw as more of a slasher and burner and what they got is a potential power/speed combo that can put up 20/20+ numbers.  His biggest knock is that he has a below average arm, where he's more of a CF/LF. Here's Baddoo before he was drafted and looking like NFL RB

  

 

Good stuff.

 

Sickels traditionally ranks high ceiling/lower floor pitchers higher than the rest of the industry, so that would explain Gonsalves. He also generally goes higher on relievers and corner bats, so I think he'll be the high guy on Rooker too. He is also more conservative with high upside guys in lower levels like Enlow, and he is conservative with injury guys, so I think he'll be low on Thorpe. His rankings here seem to fit his general pattern.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

And I thought I was the low guy on Gordon all season...

I think this is a very fair ranking of Gordon (hanging onto a B+ ranking). The defensive concerns are there but not nearly to the extent that you mention/downgrade. My concern is the K rate for a modest power hitter. Way too high at this point (he's young but...) and definitely a reason why everyone must temper their expectations about him being an option next season or even counting on him the following season.

 

I also love it how you mention that he hasn't had a .750 OPS. Nice cutoff considering that he just had a .749 OPS.

 

I have no problem including him as a centerpiece in a trade for a legit good SP though.

 

Each of the last two seasons he's had well over an .800 OPS late into the year and then tailed off as the season lengthened. I don't know if that's a league figuring him out or him tiring out. I tend to lean towards tiring out, especially as he maintained that OPS for much longer this year. While Gordon certainly has some question marks, I do think that he's likely a .750+ OPS guy at SS in the majors... that's a decent player.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

C+ prospects don't move the needle on a trade.

 

Problem with c+ is that there are two types of guys here. Guys like Badoo last year, for instance, who had upside, but a lot of question marks. Suddenly, Badoo is much higher now b/c of how well he's adjusted. The upside is still there. The other side is guys who are more of the sure thing with modest (if any at all) upside. I wouldn't say that they won't move the needle, but having guys like that is a requirement as they are the types that get thrown in to mitigate risk in a trade. Gordon may be the centerpiece of a trade that brings back pitching. Several of those C+ guys go along, in large part, to mitigate risk of Gordon failing.

[gunnarthor]

 

C+ prospects don't move the needle on a trade.

Sure they do. Liriano was a C prospect that the Twins held out for in the AJ trade. 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/2/5/1975820/career-profile-francisco-liriano

 

 

[drjim]

 

Sure they do. Liriano was a C prospect that the Twins held out for in the AJ trade. 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/2/5/1975820/career-profile-francisco-liriano

 

Held out seems like the wrong way to think of it. He was a third piece added to top a relatively equal trade. C+ prospects can do that, assuming that the top pieces are in place. When looking at the pitchers people keep calling for the Twins to acquire, they don't have the top end pieces to put a deal together, and no number of C+ prospects can overcome that.

 

The good thing about the Twins C+ prospects are that several of them could emerge this year. Some always do, so a high volume is desirable.

[Vanimal46]

Diaz is too high, and Baddoo too low for my taste. The rest looks about right. 

[howieramone2]

 

It will be a lot longer rebuild if they missed on Gordon, Stewart, Jay and Kiriloff......let's hope not.....

 

I never see these guys play, I can only go on what others say on line and stats....but Badoo seems under rated as a rule. And I am a big Thorpe believer for some reason.

Actually, the rebuild is over. Fine tuning etc., never ends, but our favorite team will be in the hunt every year for the forseeable future. I can't think of any mid-market team that has ever done a complete rebuild in only 6 years. This is TR's greatest accomplishment and I do expect he'll be offered a position once again this off season or no later than next. Falvey said it recently. They need to create a different type of organization, because neither he not Levine have anywhere near TR's scouting expertise.

[Mike Sixel]

Is it possible not to turn this into another "Ryan is awesome" vs "three of the players were here before the rebuild started" thread? Can we just talk about these prospects, please?

[diehardtwinsfan]

by the way, it's worth noting some of the comments on Sickle's article. Having 20 guys that could B- and above is a very deep system.

 

While still lacking on the top end sure thing side of things, this team has a lot of high ceiling guys that can either supplement the team long term or be used as trade chips in the short term.

[kab21]

 

Each of the last two seasons he's had well over an .800 OPS late into the year and then tailed off as the season lengthened. I don't know if that's a league figuring him out or him tiring out. I tend to lean towards tiring out, especially as he maintained that OPS for much longer this year. While Gordon certainly has some question marks, I do think that he's likely a .750+ OPS guy at SS in the majors... that's a decent player.

I think you are likely talking about a sample size issue.

 

I also think it is a tad optimistic to project someone to hit for a .750 OPS in the MAJORS when that is the best he has ever done in the minors. He remains a very good prospect due to his age relative to level and tools but right now his ranking is based on him making significant improvements in several areas. Sometimes these things happen and sometimes they don't. He was clearly overrated (esp on this board) when he had a .400 (or something silly) BAPIP. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I think you are likely talking about a sample size issue.

 

I also think it is a tad optimistic to project someone to hit for a .750 OPS in the MAJORS when that is the best he has ever done in the minors. He remains a very good prospect due to his age relative to level and tools but right now his ranking is based on him making significant improvements in several areas. Sometimes these things happen and sometimes they don't. He was clearly overrated (esp on this board) when he had a .400 (or something silly) BAPIP. 

 

That's fair. I just look at the fact that the better part of two seasons, he has hit the cover off of the ball only to fade into the end of said seasons. Add in his age relative to league and I think you are looking at an above average defender that can hit in the .750-.800 OPS type range. Likewise, I don't think he's top 100 if there's little projection left in the bat...

 

But yes, we are definitely talking small samples. I won't argue that.

[gunnarthor]

 

by the way, it's worth noting some of the comments on Sickle's article. Having 20 guys that could B- and above is a very deep system.

.

I think this is the big thing for me. The Twins really have done a nice job of getting depth in our system and the depth is both in pitching and hitting. Without getting into blaming/crediting whomever, we've seen a lot of different types of guys get mentioned. Big international signings (Javier), small international signings (Thorpe), top of the draft guys (Lewis), late round picks (Wade), overslot deals (Enlow), guys from other systems (Littell), injury comebacks (Graterol). 

 

I don't think we're as top heavy as we were a few years ago when Buxton, Sano and Berrios dominated lists but we might have more depth from even that time (when our second top 10 was better than the Angels top 10).