Trade market for starting pitchers

[beckmt]

 

Its going to cost a lot to get more pitching either way.   Sign/ trade for a 2 or 3 type, Cobb seems the best bet to me, and go all in on the bullpen.  Get at least 2 big arms for the pen.

 

CL FA

SU FA

SU Hildenberger

MR May

MR Buesenitz

MR Rookie

LR Rookie

You seem to forget Rogers who did a good job this year, even if he is probably a LOOGY long term

[beckmt]

Do not see spending a lot on pitchers close to 30 who will want 4-5 years at 15-20 million a year.  May need to go big, but do not think Twins are in the ballgame.  May want to get a young controllable starter from a team who needs a young outfielder, but have not examined other rosters yet.  We shall see.

[The Wise One]

Romero, Gonsalvels, Little, Jorge, Stewart, Slegers, even Mejia and Enns. Keep 2-4, of them, trade the rest while they have potential. They are not enough to get you a one, but jcould get you a complement to Santana and Berrios.   Thorpe. Poppen, Wells and some others are coming. There still will be pitchers in the system to fill  in what you move out.

[drjim]

Not sure if Gordon + Gonsalves gets any top guys. Both are decent prospects, but seem to be of the "higher floor" variety than higher ceiling types, and I don't see a team suddenly moving someone like, say, DeGrom or Stroman for that.

Unless someone really loves Gordon I don't think this gets close.

 

To get the options mentioned it's going to take one of Kepler, Rosario or Polanco.

[drjim]

I could see them targeting a vet with a year left and a decent contract (someone like Jaime Garcia and the Braves last year). Won't be sexy, but a solid #4 would do wonders for the team going into the season. The payroll space is a better asset than prospects right now.

[gunnarthor]

 

Unless someone really loves Gordon I don't think this gets close.

To get the options mentioned it's going to take one of Kepler, Rosario or Polanco.

I'm not sure that's true. None of these guys are going to command a Sale-like return.

 

Sonny Gray, who had 2.5 years of control left and came with some international money, cost the Yankees Dustin Fowler (a fast moving prospect but not a top 100 guy at the beginning of the year), James Kapirelian (a top 80ish prospect with high ceiling who missed all of 2017 w/injuries) and Jorge Mateo (another top 80ish prospect). mlbpipeline has those three ranked #66 (Fowler), #97 (Mateo) and unranked in their updated lists and they are #3, 4, and 10 in the A's system.

 

Sure, those guys have some ceiling but I don't think that's any better than a (for example) Gordon (#29 overall), Romero (#70), Thorpe and Wade offer. Obviously, teams will have their own needs and rankings but it's in the same ballpark, if nothing else.

 

I think the guys mentioned are more likely to get a Gray-like return (or less).

[drjim]

I'm not sure that's true. None of these guys are going to command a Sale-like return.

 

Sonny Gray, who had 2.5 years of control left and came with some international money, cost the Yankees Dustin Fowler (a fast moving prospect but not a top 100 guy at the beginning of the year), James Kapirelian (a top 80ish prospect with high ceiling who missed all of 2017 w/injuries) and Jorge Mateo (another top 80ish prospect). mlbpipeline has those three ranked #66 (Fowler), #97 (Mateo) and unranked in their updated lists and they are #3, 4, and 10 in the A's system.

 

Sure, those guys have some ceiling but I don't think that's any better than a (for example) Gordon (#29 overall), Romero (#70), Thorpe and Wade offer. Obviously, teams will have their own needs and rankings but it's in the same ballpark, if nothing else.

 

I think the guys mentioned are more likely to get a Gray-like return (or less).

I would probably put Gray behind all of them because of injury issues. He was the example I was thinking of when I thought a Gordon/Gonsalves package wouldn't be enough.

[Cap'n Piranha]

 

But they didn't really spend much on those guys. They gave them #3 starter money, which was more or less in line with what other pitchers of note got. Park got 3/yr. That's nothing.

 

And I'm not sure you can say "sure bets" when it comes to pitching. Look at Hughes, his first contract was great (3/24). He put up a 6 WAR season (or whatever) at 28. Eats a ton of innings. The narrative on him is that he's the type of flyball pitcher who is better away from the small AL East parks. Sets a league record for k/bb ratio. So the team gives him a 5 year deal that would keep him with us through age 32 and pay him like a #3 pitcher. Basically, he just had to be healthy for that to work.

 

Santana's deal has worked out great for us and Nolasco was pretty much exactly what he was before and after he was with us. So I don't think you can say we should just get a sure thing and go from there. A few years ago, people were saying the Twins should shell out for Anibal Sanchez, who had never topped 200ip. He flopped.

 

They did spend a lot on Nolasco, Santana, and Hughes, just not at the individual level.  When all three (four if you count the extension) of those contracts have run their course, the Twins will have paid around $150M for 10ish seasons of pitching.  The bigger picture here, however, is this; what if, instead of doing that $150M for league average production from 3 players, the Twins spent $150M for 6 years of ace production from one player?

[Tuba]

Nick Gordon hit .219 to end the year (July/August). You could be selling low trading him now. 

[gunnarthor]

 

They did spend a lot on Nolasco, Santana, and Hughes, just not at the individual level.  When all three (four if you count the extension) of those contracts have run their course, the Twins will have paid around $150M for 10ish seasons of pitching.  The bigger picture here, however, is this; what if, instead of doing that $150M for league average production from 3 players, the Twins spent $150M for 6 years of ace production from one player?

I get that but your premise is flawed. There's no sure thing just because a contract is bigger. Lots of bigger contracts were disasters because pitching is very damaging to arms and there also isn't always that much pitching out there.

 

Here are the pitchers who got more than Nolasco, Santana and Hughes the last few years.  

 

In 2013 the big three deals were for Grienke, Edwin Jackson and Anibal Sanchez. Grienke's been great although his contract had an opt out that he used to sign with the Dbacks. Sanchez and Jackson were bad deals.

 

n 2014- Tanaka, Garza and Ubaldo Jimenz. Tanaka was a bit special as a FA from Japan and younger than most. The Yankees gave him a 7/155 deal which hasn't been bad so far although this was a bit of down year. Garza, Jiminez and Nolasco all got about the same deal and Nolasco was probably the best of them. 

 

In 2015 Scherzer, Lester and Shields got signed for more than Santana. Lester had two good years but was not good this year and is trending down. He'll be 34 next year and owed 85m over the next three seasons (counting the buy out). Scherzer got a 7/210 deal and has been awesome so far. Shields, 25/year, has been a disaster.

 

And before the 2016 season the big deals were David Price, Grienke, Johnny Cueto, Jordan Zimmerman, Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen, Mike Leake, Ian Kennedy and Scott Kazmir.  All nine of those guys got bigger deals than Ervin.  Price had a great first year but was injured and feuding with the media and is still owed nearly 160m. Greinke is good. Cueto put up a 93 ERA+ and is injured. Zimmerman was worse than Kyle Gibson this year. He'll be 32 next year and still owed 75m. Shark's been serviceable but he's never been as good as his rep. Chen's been a disaster. Leake was already traded for nothing and two teams are dividing his salary. Kazmir missed the entire season and Kennedy sucks.

 

So that's the whole list of pitchers who signed for more than our guys over the last few years. It's not a great list. Grienke and Scherzer are about the only two who have been worth it (so far) and they signed for a lot more than 150m. Tanaka, maybe. Too early to give up on Price but it looks bad. I'd probably rather have Santana's contract straight up over any of the rest of those guys. So it's not really realistic to say the the Twins should just sign one big contract. First, they'd have to compete with the Yankees, Dodgers and Nats for it which they simply won't do. And second, there's no promise that the player would perform.

[Guest]

In case anybody's wondering, it looks like the full salary for Cleveland's pitching staff in the ALDS is less than $40M. That doesn't include Carrasco or Salazar, who combine for about $10M in salary. The most expensive pitcher is Miller, at $9M. Remember, this is considered one of the best pitching staffs in years. The idea that you have to take huge financial risks for pitching is not the only path.

[gunnarthor]

 

In case anybody's wondering, it looks like the full salary for Cleveland's pitching staff in the ALDS is less than $40M. That doesn't include Carrasco or Salazar, who combine for about $10M in salary. The most expensive pitcher is Miller, at $9M. Remember, this is considered one of the best pitching staffs in years. The idea that you have to take huge financial risks for pitching is not the only path.

Yep, and that's probably one of the reasons we brought in Falvey.  Good development and trades.

[Vanimal46]

 

In case anybody's wondering, it looks like the full salary for Cleveland's pitching staff in the ALDS is less than $40M. That doesn't include Carrasco or Salazar, who combine for about $10M in salary. The most expensive pitcher is Miller, at $9M. Remember, this is considered one of the best pitching staffs in years. The idea that you have to take huge financial risks for pitching is not the only path.

 

Where do you see less than $40 MM? I'm seeing $50.25 MM which is #12 overall in baseball. 

[yarnivek1972]

In case anybody's wondering, it looks like the full salary for Cleveland's pitching staff in the ALDS is less than $40M. That doesn't include Carrasco or Salazar, who combine for about $10M in salary. The most expensive pitcher is Miller, at $9M. Remember, this is considered one of the best pitching staffs in years. The idea that you have to take huge financial risks for pitching is not the only path.

Yes. But a team can’t draft an entire pitching staff and have them ready to perform at the MLB level in 2 years.

[Brandon27]

I wouldn't trade Gonsalves or Romero they are best two pitchers we got coming up to the big leagues I would package a trade with Gibson ,kohl Stewart and Wander Javier to the Mets for DeGrom. If that doesn't I turn around try send them to Dodgers for Walker Buehler and trade after one of those go out sign bullpen help and Alex Cobb so the rotation with one of those trades and the signing of Cobb be 

 

Buehler/DeGrom

Berrios

Santana

Cobb

Mejia 

 

Bullpen

hildenberger

Rogers

Busenitz

May?? 

FA

FA

CL

 

 

[Guest]

Where do you see less than $40 MM? I'm seeing $50.25 MM which is #12 overall in baseball.

 

I added the salaries on Spotrac. With Carrasco and Salazar, they do get to about $50M, but they're not on the ALDS roster.

 

Even with your number, #12, that's not irrational spending, it's smart spending, especially if the #12 payroll gives you one of the best staffs in history. Andrew Miller is paid $1M more than Hector Santiago, who makes more than Corey Kluber. Ervin, Hughes and Nolasco all make much more than Miller.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I added the salaries on Spotrac. With Carrasco and Salazar, they do get to about $50M, but they're not on the ALDS roster.

Even with your number, #12, that's not irrational spending, it's smart spending, especially if the #12 payroll gives you one of the best staffs in history. Andrew Miller is paid $1M more than Hector Santiago, who makes more than Corey Kluber. Ervin, Hughes and Nolasco all make much more than Miller.

 

so, in the next 1-2 years, how do you propose building a legit staff while Sano, Buxton, Dozier, mauer are here? Or are you also going to replace half the good hitters while going from bad pitching to good in 3-4 years?

[Guest]

Yes. But a team can’t draft an entire pitching staff and have them ready to perform at the MLB level in 2 years.

With the exception of Trevor Bauer, who Cleveland traded for, I don't believe any of their pitchers were recent heralded drafts. Andrew Miller, of course, was #6, but that was about 15 years and six teams ago.

[Vanimal46]

 

I added the salaries on Spotrac. With Carrasco and Salazar, they do get to about $50M, but they're not on the ALDS roster.

Even with your number, #12, that's not irrational spending, it's smart spending, especially if the #12 payroll gives you one of the best staffs in history. Andrew Miller is paid $1M more than Hector Santiago, who makes more than Corey Kluber. Ervin, Hughes and Nolasco all make much more than Miller.

 

Gotcha. Don't get me wrong, I was just curious if there was another source you used. I've certainly looked at old data before and was way off in a discussion. 

 

And there's no doubt Cleveland built themselves a great pitching staff. I believe they have the highest WAR SP staff in the game according to Fangraphs. 

They gambled on Kluber and Carrasco with long term, team friendly deals that paid off bigly. Andrew Miller is also worth every penny they pay him. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

With the exception of Trevor Bauer, who Cleveland traded for, I don't believe any of their pitchers were recent heralded drafts. Andrew Miller, of course, was #6, but that was about 15 years and six teams ago.

 

that doesn't answer the question. How do you expect to go from this staff to good? Also, ESan leaves in 1-2 years, so you have to replace him too. 

[Guest]

so, in the next 1-2 years, how do you propose building a legit staff while Sano, Buxton, Dozier, mauer are here? Or are you also going to replace half the good hitters while going from bad pitching to good in 3-4 years?

Are you offering to hire me as GM?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Are you offering to hire me as GM?

 

no, I'm asking you how you would fix the staff, if you aren't willing to sign any FAs?

[gunnarthor]

Make the trades. We have another thread on that. The Twins have some chips, use them. I don't want to spend money on Chatwood and we're not going to get Tanaka so the only options we have are trades and internal growth by our young pitchers. We can do both.

[Guest]

no, I'm asking you how you would fix the staff, if you aren't willing to sign any FAs?

For one thing, this is a thread about trades. For a second thing, where did I say I wouldn't make a trade (or sign an FA)? All I said is that Cleveland has one of the best staffs in history without breaking the bank.

[drjim]

Make the trades. We have another thread on that. The Twins have some chips, use them. I don't want to spend money on Chatwood and we're not going to get Tanaka so the only options we have are trades and internal growth by our young pitchers. We can do both.

Their chips can get some decent patches, but unless they move kepler, rosario or polanco they aren't getting a good (2 or 3 type) pitcher for multiple years.

[drjim]

I wouldn't trade Gonsalves or Romero they are best two pitchers we got coming up to the big leagues I would package a trade with Gibson ,kohl Stewart and Wander Javier to the Mets for DeGrom. If that doesn't I turn around try send them to Dodgers for Walker Buehler and trade after one of those go out sign bullpen help and Alex Cobb so the rotation with one of those trades and the signing of Cobb be

 

Buehler/DeGrom

Berrios

Santana

Cobb

Mejia

 

Bullpen

hildenberger

Rogers

Busenitz

May??

FA

FA

CL

Those packages aren't getting those players, not all that close. Dodgers especially aren't moving Buehler unless they are getting elite controlled guys.

[Mike Sixel]

 

For one thing, this is a thread about trades. For a second thing, where did I say I wouldn't make a trade (or sign an FA)? All I said is that Cleveland has one of the best staffs in history without breaking the bank.

 

Fair, I misunderstood your point I guess. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Their chips can get some decent patches, but unless they move kepler, rosario or polanco they aren't getting a good (2 or 3 type) pitcher for multiple years.

 

I agree. It's going to take pain to get pitching in a trade, I think. I'm not sure many bad teams have good pitchers that will only take back prospects at this point But maybe I'm drawing a blank here....

[USAFChief]

 I wonder if Detroit will consider moving Verlander this offseason.

 

//ducks

[prouster]

 

Those packages aren't getting those players, not all that close. Dodgers especially aren't moving Buehler unless they are getting elite controlled guys.

 

Agreed. Buehler would probably require some lower level arms with great upside (otherwise why trade a controllable arm on the cusp of what looks like a very fruitful promotion), plus a few more ready/near ready pieces. I don't know if the Twins even have the pieces. Maybe something like Graterol, Enlow, Baddoo, & Gordon? I don't know why the Dodgers would even make that or a similar trade. They don't need help on their MLB roster, they already have a very deep system, and there's no reason to give up control on a potential number 1-2 guy on the threshold of the 25-man roster.

 

I guess my point is that Buehler probably isn't going anywhere, so the Twins should look someplace else.