Let's talk about Castro....

[SwainZag]

 

Looks like you started a nice controversial thread.  Thanks.  I am not a Castro fan and I think Garver should work in next year, but I need to ask about Giminez too - I think the team really likes him.  

 

As a pitch frame skeptic I am more interested in passed balls, caught stealing and most important - calling a game.  No data to study the last element.  

 

His WAR on baseball Reference puts him in with a lot of catchers.  That said a Garver and Castro platoon would be fine with me. 

 

Gimenez - 34 years old

Batting - 207 PA .211/.341/.357  

Fielding - 440.2 Inn, 9 PB, 12/28 CS  30%

Arbitration Eligible

 

Castro - 30 years old

Batting - 379 PA, .233/.325/.378

Fielding - 853.1 Inn, 5 PB, 14/40 CS 26%

Signed thru 2019, $8M per year.

 

Just curious, why don't you like Castro but do like Gimenez?  Besides a few points in OBP and a couple of runners caught stealing, Castro is the better player, not to mention he's locked up.

[Thrylos]

Castro is the major's 11th best defensive catcher.  Tied with Yan Gomes for 18th as far as fWAR goes, ahead of Wieters, Lucroy, d'Arnaud etc.

 

Repeat:  Castro is having a better season that Lucroy or Wieters

 

Plus he (along with the rest  of the defense) has helped the same pitching staff improve by half a run or so.

Castro is the least of the Twins' problems.  The Twins are fine as far as position players go, tied for 7th in wRC+ in the majors.   Pitching is the issue here (25th in FIP, 24th in SIERA, t19 in ERA - and Castro is part of that positive ERA)

[Doomtints]

Before the Castro signing and we were talking about picking him up, I was pretty vocal about his passed balls problem. I was against the signing, but I wasn't upset about it. The Twins wanted/needed new blood at catcher and got it. The jury is still out as to whether or not the team got an upgrade, but they probably did, though perhaps the upgrade isn't as exciting as fans hoped.

 

For what it's worth, BP lists Castro's pitch framing at 8.0, 11th in the league. The rest of his defense is flat.  His overall defense is about half as good as it was last year, again using BPs measurements. Suzuki's defense continues to tank but he is hitting better than his career numbers, probably due to reduced playing time keeping him fresh.

 

 

[DaveW]

they traded for jrm, got rid of suzuki, signed castro, brought up garver. not up to the unrealistic expectations of some. not everything works out but it does seem like trying. probably shoulda traded dozier for posey!

to be clear I was heavily against all of those ideas except for calling up Garver.

 

If the Twins ownership wasn't so cheap, maybe they could afford an elite baseball mind like myself in the FO

[Doomtints]

 

Castro is the major's 11th best defensive catcher.  

 

But look at how that's rolled up.  8.0 score for pitch framing, 8.4 score overall. This means every other pitching metric totals 0.4. Look at J.T. Realmuto, a more complete defensive catcher, ranked #8 (for FRAA, which is BPs defensive metric). He's the guy offenses should fear.

 

The page you are citing is *heavily* weighting pitch framing (looks like to the tune of about 85% for most players, or more), but Realmuto defied the odds and finished in the top 10 anyway. If you believe pitch framing is the second coming, you have found your web page. If you think it's one factor, you should look elsewhere.

[awinter]

Unload Castro? No way- let's not forget how bad Suzuki was defensively- rated at the bottom of MLB in pitch framing, he only threw out 19% of baserunners, and sure he had only 1 passed ball, but he was the catcher for 35 wild pitches. Castro is near the top of the league in pitch framing, he throws out a higher percentage of runners (he's given up around the same combined passed balls/wild pitches).

 

I realize quantifying pitch framing is a difficult thing but I would much rather have one of the best pitch framers than one of the worst.

 

Offensively, 2017 Castro has an OPS of .703, which is pretty solid for a catcher. He also has an OPB of .325, also pretty good for his position.

 

Let's not forget, his contract only takes him through age 32. If you trade him away, who catches? I know everybody wants to see Garver and he's done awesome through his minor league career but you can't assume he's going to be great. Even if he is great, wouldn't you want a guy like Castro as a backup or as insurance?

This signing was lauded by a lot this off season, but at this point it looks like a disaster that we are going to be stuck with for another 2 years. My issue wasn't signing him, as much as it was giving him 3 years.

Not much of a hitter.
No arm.
Lots and lots of passed balls.

I'm no expert on pitch framing, but last I checked the Twins staff wasn't exactly leading the league in strike outs as well.

All of that is to say:

At this point you look to unload him in the offseason, right?

Go with Ramos even!

 

[Danchat]

 

Only stats I can find is that Castro used to be in the top 10 but not in 2017.  Can you provide the link please?

I was using Baseball Prospectus' pitch framing stats (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1899425) but he just so happened to drop from #10 to #11 after yesterday's game so my claim is no longer correct.       whoops.

[tarheeltwinsfan]

We could go full circle and trade Castro for Matt Capps.

[twinsnorth49]

 

Both of our catchers have been very good this year. When advanced metrics truly become advanced, a component for team chemistry and individual leadership will be added.

Too bad his leadership couldn't help him block that ball in the 6th inning last night. 

[Major League Ready]

 

to be clear I was heavily against all of those ideas except for calling up Garver.

If the Twins ownership wasn't so cheap, maybe they could afford an elite baseball mind like myself in the FO

 

The response from Maverick at the end of the movie when he tells his CO he wants to be assigned to Top Gun comes to mind.  I believe he said "God Help Us".

[SwainZag]

 

The response from Maverick at the end of the movie when he tells his CO he wants to be assigned to Top Gun comes to mind.  I believe he said "God Help Us".

 

For a visual

 

[Dantes929]

 

I was using Baseball Prospectus' pitch framing stats (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1899425) but he just so happened to drop from #10 to #11 after yesterday's game so my claim is no longer correct.       whoops.

Thank you.   The best I could find was that he was at  -.81 calls a game meaning turning balls into strikes and keeping strikes from turning into balls against the average.    Not a good result but if he is indeed worth 8.1 runs that is pretty valuable.   It might mean 0 games affected and it might mean 8 games.   On average it is probably worth a game to the good.   One game at this point looks pretty large.

[Major League Ready]

 

It's this simple ... Catchers are probably the most scare commodity in baseball.   I was pretty shocked we got more than a six pack of beer for JRM and we got Moya who seems to have a decent chance of sticking at the ML level.  It would sure be nice to get lucky with Moya because right now the Hicks for JRM trade is a real bust.   Let's just hope Garver can be a decent platoon or the new regime does a much better job trading for a ML ready catcher.

[crop duster]

Didn't know what to think about Castro so I asked Ozzie Guillen. He mumbled something like 'people keep trying to get rid of Castro but that ****er is still there'

[markos]

 

Never said that.

Winning teams should always be looking to upgrade their mediocre positions/players though. It's what winning teams do.

I completely agree with this sentiment. But I think catcher isn't the lowest hanging fruit right now. I'd put DH, 3/5 of the rotation and most of the bullpen ahead of the Castro/Garver combo at catcher for at least 2018, maybe 2019 too. 

[USAFChief]

I completely agree with this sentiment. But I think catcher isn't the lowest hanging fruit right now. I'd put DH, 3/5 of the rotation and most of the bullpen ahead of the Castro/Garver combo at catcher for at least 2018, maybe 2019 too.

Add in a good RH hitting 4th outfielder, too, before catcher.

[Tom Froemming]

 

Looks like you started a nice controversial thread.  Thanks.  I am not a Castro fan and I think Garver should work in next year, but I need to ask about Giminez too - I think the team really likes him.  

 

As a pitch frame skeptic I am more interested in passed balls, caught stealing and most important - calling a game.  No data to study the last element.

 

His WAR on baseball Reference puts him in with a lot of catchers.  That said a Garver and Castro platoon would be fine with me. 

Baseball Info Solutions has a stat called Catcher Pitch Calling Runs Above Average. Jason Castro ranks second behind Cincy's Tucker Barnhart in that stat, which is listed as RerC on the catcher stats page at B-Ref.

 

I have no idea how that's calculated/how predictive it is or anything like that, but just wanted to pass along the fact that it appears someone is trying to quantify game calling.

[Brandon Warne]

He gave them exactly what they were expecting. Fangraphs has his value -- last I checked -- around $11-12 million. Disaster? Hardly.

[Brandon Warne]

Correction: Right around $10 million. 

 

The bar for catchers is low, and beyond that, A Garver-Castro platoon next year under $9 million will play.

[Bill Brown69]

As a pitch frame skeptic I am more interested in passed balls, caught stealing and most important - calling a game.No data to study the last element.

 

I think that a real good framer is always trying to catch the ball with the edge of his mitt, leading to more passed balls. That last part though is why the catcher position will never be truly understood except by those who have worn the mask. My Dad was a minor league catcher and even I don't have more than a 10% knowledge of what makes them good.

 

2 stories to share. Dad was catching a guy who had a live arm but wild. 12 pitches in the bases would have been loaded except for the 3 pitches that went to the backstop. He took the ball out and shoved it under the pitchers nose and said "throw this SOB over the plate and let somebody else chase it!" 9 innings and 1 hit followed. 2nd story, Dad went out to talk to a pitcher, pretty rattled, couple runs in and a couple guys on base. "Hey do you see that blonde in the 4th row? I will set you up with her if you can strike this guy out. Frank Howard struck out and the pitcher and my aunt have been married close to 60 years. 

[Bill Brown69]

 

I completely agree with this sentiment. But I think catcher isn't the lowest hanging fruit right now. I'd put DH, 3/5 of the rotation and most of the bullpen ahead of the Castro/Garver combo at catcher for at least 2018, maybe 2019 too. 

 

For my 2 cents this starting 8 can win a World Series if the DH position is filled with a RH power bat that can also be serviceable in a pinch at a position.

[SwainZag]

 

As a pitch frame skeptic I am more interested in passed balls, caught stealing and most important - calling a game.No data to study the last element.

 

I think that a real good framer is always trying to catch the ball with the edge of his mitt, leading to more passed balls. That last part though is why the catcher position will never be truly understood except by those who have worn the mask. My Dad was a minor league catcher and even I don't have more than a 10% knowledge of what makes them good.

 

2 stories to share. Dad was catching a guy who had a live arm but wild. 12 pitches in the bases would have been loaded except for the 3 pitches that went to the backstop. He took the ball out and shoved it under the pitchers nose and said "throw this SOB over the plate and let somebody else chase it!" 9 innings and 1 hit followed. 2nd story, Dad went out to talk to a pitcher, pretty rattled, couple runs in and a couple guys on base. "Hey do you see that blonde in the 4th row? I will set you up with her if you can strike this guy out. Frank Howard struck out and the pitcher and my aunt have been married close to 60 years. 

 

He has 5 passed balls on the year which in the realm of things is excellent.  Are people mixing him up this season with Gimenez who has allowed 12?  I know the one last night sticks out, but really passed balls with Castro have not been a problem this season.

[yarnivek1972]

Baseball Info Solutions has a stat called Catcher Pitch Calling Runs Above Average. Jason Castro ranks second behind Cincy's Tucker Barnhart in that stat, which is listed as RerC on the catcher stats page at B-Ref.

 

I have no idea how that's calculated/how predictive it is or anything like that, but just wanted to pass along the fact that it appears someone is trying to quantify game calling.

I don't know if I would put much stock into that. How can he be one of the best at saving runs due to his pitch calling when his pitch calling is largely responsible for a below average pitching staff?

[Major League Ready]

 

Add in a good RH hitting 4th outfielder, too, before catcher.

Maybe we can trade for Hicks.  

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't know if I would put much stock into that. How can he be one of the best at saving runs due to his pitch calling when his pitch calling is largely responsible for a below average pitching staff?

Because the same staff could be even worse with a different catcher.

[jimmer]

Amongst the 20 catchers who have 350 or more PAs, Castro is 16th in fWAR.

Amongst the 26 catchers who have 300 or more PAs, Castro is 19th in fWAR.

 

Our pitching staff sits about a half run better (in ERA) than last year, so maybe that's all about Castro  Or Berrios.

 

Then again, team FIP is actually worse than last year...

[yarnivek1972]

Because the same staff could be even worse with a different catcher.

Not sure I buy that either. The Twins had a different catcher last year. Other than Berrios, who is substantially better?

 

I know it's not the end all standard, but in terms of ERA:

 

Santana and Gibson are almost dead on. Rogers is slightly better, but trending worse lately. Duffy is better, but I chalk that up to relieving instead of starting.

 

Pressly is worse. Tonkin is worse. Boshers is worse. Kintzler was about the same. Santiago is/was worse. The improved team ERA comes largely from guys that weren't around in 2016 (or, in Berrios' case weren't around as much in 2016).

 

So, the question remains, what evidence supports the assertion that Castro has been a positive influence on the pitching staff?

[Mr. Brooks]

Not sure I buy that either. The Twins had a different catcher last year. Other than Berrios, who is substantially better?

 

I know it's not the end all standard, but in terms of ERA:

 

Santana and Gibson are almost dead on. Rogers is slightly better, but trending worse lately. Duffy is better, but I chalk that up to relieving instead of starting.

 

Pressly is worse. Tonkin is worse. Boshers is worse. Kintzler was about the same. Santiago is/was worse. The improved team ERA comes largely from guys that weren't around in 2016 (or, in Berrios' case weren't around as much in 2016).

 

So, the question remains, what evidence supports the assertion that Castro has been a positive influence on the pitching staff?

Even that doesn't mean he's not having a positive effect.

 

For one, guys don't pitch the same each year. So just because a guy doesn't improve his ERA over last year, doesn't mean Castro isn't improving it. Perhaps that pitcher would have been worse this year over last (instead of the same), if not for Castro.

 

Also, he's not the only catcher. Hypothetically, the pitchers could be awful when Gimenez catches them, but better than last year when Castro catches them, which combined shows the same as last year.

 

Finally, you mention Berrios almost as an aside. Berrios was awful last year. I'd imagine that just Berrios improvement alone would give him a pretty good rating.

 

I don't know any of this to be true, just saying there are too many variables to just compare ERA.

[Halsey Hall]

I just don't like the way he plays the game.  So I'd move him somewhere.

[Mr. Brooks]

I just don't like the way he plays the game. So I'd move him somewhere.

Can you be more specific?