Go get Verlander

[Mike Sixel]

The Astros gave up a lot, apparently. Whether it was worth it or not is a question I can't answer. Fangraphs said the pitcher that is the main prize is either Detroit's new number 2 or 1 prospect......

[Jham]

 

Never mentioned in any trade talk, made no deal anywhere.

Infer what you will. I'm done giving the new front office the benefit of any doubt. They will have to earn it at this point, and they're starting from a big hole.

So they've traded our closer out of a thin and inexperienced bull pen for a guy who gave up 8 runs in 2 plus A-ball innings last night and paid $4.5 million for a guy BBProspectus "projects to be a swingman/5th starter" to the team we're currently trailing by 1 game in the Wild Card race....

Hmmmm....  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Detroit would never have traded Verlander to the Twins, NO WAY, NO HOW.  Maybe if we took on 100% of his remaining salary they might have considered it, but i still doubt it.  Even still he's earning 28 million a year for the next three season 2018-2020.  Are you really sure you want to take on that kind of salary from a guy that has started to show cracks and is already 34 years old?  Just saying.

 

Well, it is only 2 years. What is the plan for that money, otherwise? The FO signed 1 decent FA this last off season. They will have more than $20MM coming off the books......let's see what, if anything, they do with that. If not much, then yes, I'd rather have Verlander. Not sure about the prospect cost, that's a different question.

[Vanimal46]

 

On a somewhat related topic, does anyone else find it interesting the Royals didn't move anyone?

 

I mean, it's great for the rest of the ALC but they're 4.5 games out of the second Wild Card spot.

 

I'd be kinda pissed if I was a KCR fan right now. They wouldn't get much for any single player but moving a few guys might help speed up their inevitable rebuild.

 

Works out better for the Twins, that's for sure. I don't know how many of the 6-7 pending FA's they can re-sign, but it's certainly not going to be all of them. Keep on delaying that rebuild, KC! 

[Doomtints]

 

Boy, I don't see it that way. In Houston, Verlander is joining the best team in the AL and a market much larger than Minnesota.

 

The Astros are considered a small market team. The Twins fan base is bigger. The Astros don't get the attention they deserve in the Houston area, much less in the rest of Texas.

[USAFChief]

Detroit would never have traded Verlander to the Twins, NO WAY, NO HOW.  Maybe if we took on 100% of his remaining salary they might have considered it, but i still doubt it.  Even still he's earning 28 million a year for the next three season 2018-2020.  Are you really sure you want to take on that kind of salary from a guy that has started to show cracks and is already 34 years old?  Just saying.

There's an entire thread about it...Yeah, I'm sure.

 

And it's two years, not three,

[amjgt]

 

There's an entire thread about it...Yeah, I'm sure.

And it's two years, not three,

 

My understanding (from a passing comment earlier in this thread) is that if he finished 5th or better in the Cy Young voting in 2019, then 2020 would kick in.

 

You could certainly argue that if you had a pitcher finish in the top 5 of the cy young, you don't mind having him on a 1/28 contract for the following year.

[old nurse]

 

earlier this week the mariners acquired a SP from the Cardinals, it was an example of a player moved that wasn't in the division.

 

There were several trades yesterday, for OFers, DH/OF types, C, SP..... the Twins did not acquire a player. That was the point of the post, quite literally. The Twins did nothing to get better. 

There was not much traded that was going to make the Twins that much better. Nicosia was claimed earlier this year on trade waivers, so that was not an option.  Verlander's statements to Michigan press about possible trades he indicated wanting to win a World Series. The addition of Verlander to the Twins was not going to accomplish that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The Astros are considered a small market team. The Twins fan base is bigger. The Astros don't get the attention they deserve in the Houston area, much less in the rest of Texas.

That's not true at all. According to Forbes, in 2016 (based on 2015 revenue), the Astros valuation was #15 in baseball. That was the Astros' return to relevance year and their attendance is +4,000 per game this season and surely set to rise next season again.

 

When the Astros made their last run in the early to mid 2000s, they had payrolls in the top half of baseball, sometimes top 10 IIRC.

 

Houston is a freakin' huge market, which should be in our consciousness right now considering all that is happening down there.

 

edit: Found Forbes' 2017 numbers (based on 2016 revenue) and the Astros jumped two spots up to #13.

[amjgt]

 

Dunno, if I'm the Twins, I'd offer up an A ball flyer for Lorenzo Cain.

 

It's not a lot but it's more than the Royals will get a month from now.

 

Cain is certainly getting a QO.

 

How good of a prospect would a team need to forego a 1st round supplemental pick?

 

It's an interesting topic actually.... The idea of a top 35 pick is seemingly far more valuable than when you actually make that pick and a real person (with a real ranking) is associated with that pick. For the Twins, a comparable person would be Rooker.  

 

Would a Rooker for Cain rental get laughed out of the Skype chat? Probably, but that's realistically the type of prospect they will probably get in 9 months.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Cain is certainly getting a QO.

 

How good of a prospect would a team need to forego a 1st round supplemental pick?

 

It's an interesting topic actually.... The idea of a top 35 pick is seemingly far more valuable than when you actually make that pick and a real person (with a real ranking) is associated with that pick. For the Twins, a comparable person would be Rooker.  

 

Would a Rooker for Cain rental get laughed out of the Skype chat? Probably, but that's realistically the type of prospect they will probably get in 9 months.

If Cain is getting the QO, then offer up Moustakas or one of the other nearly half dozen players the Royals are going to lose this offseason.

 

That was my point, really. The Royals can't offer QOs or resign all the players they're losing this season. And if you're in that situation in a market as small as Kansas City, you get what you can for the guys walking out the door. Choose and keep those you plan to give a QO and those you plan to resign. Get something for the rest.

 

On July 31st, the Royals were in the race so keeping those guys made some sense. But now? There are so many teams in front of them that selling should have been obvious.

 

Then again, I've never thought the KC front office was particularly smart.

[old nurse]

 

The Astros are considered a small market team. The Twins fan base is bigger. The Astros don't get the attention they deserve in the Houston area, much less in the rest of Texas.

Metropolitan Houston area is the fifth largest in the US.  Their television contract is in the top half. How does that make Houston a small market team?

[Mike Sixel]

 

There was not much traded that was going to make the Twins that much better. Nicosia was claimed earlier this year on trade waivers, so that was not an option.  Verlander's statements to Michigan press about possible trades he indicated wanting to win a World Series. The addition of Verlander to the Twins was not going to accomplish that.

 

I think we'll just disagree on this. IMO, when a team is in a legit playoff race, you go get better. As a fan of this team since forever, I really don't want them to not finish off teams, like the previous GM did in the 2000s.

 

People can say "well, they'll be more ready in a year or two to do that"....remember when M&M were going to carry the Twins, and we should just wait a year or two? Players get hurt. Players under perform. Other teams also get better and add players. There are always reasons, ignoring the context of the current moment in a vacuum, to do nothing or make an individual decision. When the decision happens over and over, it is a process, and not a decision, and it becomes how a company operates. Like chief, I had hoped with a new GM, things would change. So far, there is no evidence that is true. They didn't sign many FAs, despite having the worst pitching around, and they didn't acquire players at either deadline to try to win.

 

Maybe next year will be different, but this year sure isn't. 

[nicksaviking]

I'd have a hard time believing every playoff team didn't at least ask about Verlander. We only heard about Houston, surely they weren't the only team that had a conversation. No one knew the Angels were talking Upton until the deal happened.

 

The Twins are going to be on a lot of no trade lists, we're just not a desirable area and they aren't viewed as legit contenders. I'd have liked to make a move but of the players moved yesterday only Upton and Juan Nicasio would have interested me at their price and Nicasio never made it past the Phillies. Guessing the team could have gotten someone not traded yesterday is hypothetical at best.

[Mike Sixel]

2020 is an option year, according to fangraphs. 

[Vanimal46]

 

2018, 2019, 2020.  So no it's three not two.  He's an unrestricted free agent in 2021 at age 38. 

 

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/houston-astros/justin-verlander-310/

 

2020 is a vesting option if he finishes top 5 in Cy Young voting for 2019. Not guaranteed. Kurt Suzuki for example had a vesting option with the Twins this season if he hit a certain amount of PA's in 2016. Obviously he didn't reach that number, and isn't on the team. 

 

Hell, if he does finish top 5 in Cy Young voting for 2019, the $22 MM next season shouldn't be an issue then since he's still very much at the top of his game. 

[nicksaviking]

On July 31st, the Royals were in the race so keeping those guys made some sense. But now? There are so many teams in front of them that selling should have been obvious.

 

Then again, I've never thought the KC front office was particularly smart.

They look like they're in the same spot the Twins were a month ago. I agreed with the Twins decision to sell but many didn't. I was probably wrong. And if KC is looking at an end of an era, they probably feel pressure to try for one last run.

 

I agree about KC's FO, they were more lucky than smart. Perhaps all the more reason to try one last time to win this month; this team had one successful rebuild in two decades, they're likely not going to do it again after this tear down.

[laloesch]

2020 is a vesting option if he finishes top 5 in Cy Young voting for 2019. Not guaranteed. Kurt Suzuki for example had a vesting option with the Twins this season if he hit a certain amount of PA's in 2016. Obviously he didn't reach that number, and isn't on the team. 

 

 

That is correct.  My mistake, hence why i deleted the posted replies.

[laloesch]

 

2020 is a vesting option if he finishes top 5 in Cy Young voting for 2019. Not guaranteed. Kurt Suzuki for example had a vesting option with the Twins this season if he hit a certain amount of PA's in 2016. Obviously he didn't reach that number, and isn't on the team. 

 

But certainly very possible for him.

[Doomtints]

 

That's not true at all. According to Forbes, in 2016 (based on 2015 revenue), the Astros valuation was #15 in baseball. That was the Astros' return to relevance year and their attendance is +4,000 per game this season and surely set to rise next season again.

 

When the Astros made their last run in the early to mid 2000s, they had payrolls in the top half of baseball, sometimes top 10 IIRC.

 

Houston is a freakin' huge market, which should be in our consciousness right now considering all that is happening down there.

 

edit: Found Forbes' 2017 numbers (based on 2016 revenue) and the Astros jumped two spots up to #13.

 

We can find articles calling Houston a small market team if we look.  Local Houston media certainly calls them small market.

 

I lived in Houston when the Astros were in the world series. There was little coverage and little excitement, and all this in spite of having several successful years.

 

In areas outside of Houston for a while cable networks outside of Dallas carried both Astros and Rangers feeds. The Astros were dropped when the "Houston Sports Network" was launched, and even many Houston area residents could no longer watch the team. Spectrum (previously Time Warner) owns most of the urban Texas market and still does not carry the Astros channel, so even in Houston many fans can only watch Astros games if they go to the stadium. In spite of this, attendence for them is only 5k more than the Twins.

 

And don't forget, the original Houston Sports Channel declared bankruptcy already. The network that was supposedly valued at $550M was sold from Comcast to AT&T for a mere $1,000.

[Vanimal46]

 

But certainly very possible for him.

 

Yeah I edited my original post to include that.... If he does finish top 5 in Cy Young, then the $22 MM shouldn't be an issue for 2020. He would be a very good pitcher still. 

[nicksaviking]

In regards to the non-moves yesterday: Chip-on-your-shoulder Twins looked really good after the July deadline. Maybe doubling down on that chip will keep the fire going.

 

Not that I at all think that went into anyone's decisions yesterday.

[Vanimal46]

 

We can find articles calling Houston a small market team if we look.  Local Houston media certainly calls them small market.

 

I lived in Houston when the Astros were in the world series. There was little coverage and little excitement, and all this in spite of having several successful years.

 

In areas outside of Houston for a while cable networks outside of Dallas carried both Astros and Rangers feeds. The Astros were dropped when the "Houston Sports Network" was launched, and even many Houston area residents could no longer watch the team. Spectrum (previously Time Warner) owns most of the urban Texas market and still does not carry the Astros channel, so even in Houston many fans can only watch Rangers games if they go to the stadium. In spite of this, attendence for them is only 5k more than the Twins.

 

They cleared up the TV coverage issue a year or 2 ago... Living down here now, people hated the "Houston Sports Network" because it was only available for Comcast customers (about 40% of the market). They didn't have any agreements with DirecTV, Time Warner, AT&T, etc. 

Now that ownership was bought out by AT&T, and they have the channel available for all cable subscribers. 

[amjgt]

 

If Cain is getting the QO, then offer up Moustakas or one of the other nearly half dozen players the Royals are going to lose this offseason.

 

That was my point, really. The Royals can't offer QOs or resign all the players they're losing this season. And if you're in that situation in a market as small as Kansas City, you get what you can for the guys walking out the door. Choose and keep those you plan to give a QO and those you plan to resign. Get something for the rest.

 

 

Why can't they QO all those guys? Who's going to accept it?

 

Obviously not ALL of the free agents but Cain, Moustakas, Vargas, Hosmer.... none of those guys are accepting a QO

 

 

[Doomtints]

 

They cleared up the TV coverage issue a year or 2 ago... Living down here now, people hated the "Houston Sports Network" because it was only available for Comcast customers (about 40% of the market). They didn't have any agreements with DirecTV, Time Warner, AT&T, etc. 

Now that ownership was bought out by AT&T, and they have the channel available for all cable subscribers. 

 

Time Warner still does not broadcast games.  But yes, DirecTV and U-Verse now does.

[Kwak]

 

The Astros are considered a small market team. The Twins fan base is bigger. The Astros don't get the attention they deserve in the Houston area, much less in the rest of Texas.

Where do you get your information?  Houston is the 3rd largest city in the US. They are one of the high revenue teams in sports.

 

 Baseball lags in Texas behind football and BB, but they can definitely afford to pay for Verlander.  As far as three minor leaguers--it's a pittance for a top SP with world series experience. Perhaps a high price for the Twins--but only because the Twins have stunk at drafting/developing talent. Acquiring Verlander shows that HOUS is a team that realizes that championship seasons come infrequently and that "paying up" to seize that opportunity demonstrates their commitment to their fans.  They will eventually get their investment back in time.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

We can find articles calling Houston a small market team if we look.  Local Houston media certainly calls them small market.

 

I lived in Houston when the Astros were in the world series. There was little coverage and little excitement, and all this in spite of having several successful years.

 

In areas outside of Houston for a while cable networks outside of Dallas carried both Astros and Rangers feeds. The Astros were dropped when the "Houston Sports Network" was launched, and even many Houston area residents could no longer watch the team. Spectrum (previously Time Warner) owns most of the urban Texas market and still does not carry the Astros channel, so even in Houston many fans can only watch Astros games if they go to the stadium. In spite of this, attendence for them is only 5k more than the Twins.

 

And don't forget, the original Houston Sports Channel declared bankruptcy already. The network that was supposedly valued at $550M was sold from Comcast to AT&T for a mere $1,000.

All of this is anecdotal. I gave you hard numbers. The Astros were a mid-market team when they were terrible and are now inching their way up the baseball ladder. They'll probably be valued somewhere between 11-12 in baseball after the season.

 

The Twins aren't even a "small market" team, as they've been horrible and still come in around 22-25 in revenue. The moment they become good again, they should nudge their way into the top 20.

 

I don't really care how people refer to the team. The actual numbers show Houston is decidedly mid-market, probably on the upper end of that term. "Small market" should be designated for the teams that actually play in a legitimately small market: Milwaukee, Oakland (primarily because of their stadium and the area's preference for the Giants), Tampa, Kansas City, et al.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Why can't they QO all those guys? Who's going to accept it?

 

Obviously not ALL of the free agents but Cain, Moustakas, Vargas, Hosmer.... none of those guys are accepting a QO

True, I guess those four are having good enough seasons to reject a QO (I thought Hosmer and Vargas were having worse seasons than they are). It will be interesting to see how they handle the offseason.

[Doomtints]

 

Where do you get your information?  Houston is the 3rd largest city in the US. They are one of the high revenue teams in sports.

 

Yes, we all know that Houston is a big city. And believe me, I had this conversation many times when I lived in Texas. To an outsider it seems impossible that Houston would be a small market for baseball.  Nevertheless, Houston is not a big baseball town for various reasons.

[alarp33]

 

Yes, we all know that Houston is a big city. And believe me, I had this conversation many times when I lived in Texas. To an outsider it seems impossible that Houston would be a small market for baseball.  Nevertheless, Houston is not a big baseball town for various reasons.

 

It seems impossible because they are not considered "small market" by any definition of the term, any of the numbers, etc.