Eddie Rosario

[gunnarthor]

So what are folks' thoughts on Eddie Rosario this year? He's lowered his k-rate and increased his bb-rate pretty well. His OPS+ is 109, which is pretty good. But both fangraphs and b-r ding him pretty hard for his defense, fWAR has him on pace for slightly less than a 2 WAR season while b-r has him at replacement level.  I know a few years ago the Hardball Times wrote about the problem of defensive WAR calculations when you have three good OFers and that usually led to one of the OFers value being pushed down. Is that what we're seeing or is Rosario turning into Hammer/Young/Grossman type LFer?

[nicksaviking]

Yeah, I'm really for touting statistical analysis, but the defensive stuff still struggles to pass the smell test quite often. There are so many unmeasured variables. 

 

His UZR is negative solely based on his ARM. We've all seen him make some boneheaded plays, but we've also seen him nail many runners. For all we know the coaching staff wants him to be aggressive. Not hitting the cutoff and trying to nail the runner at home instead of keeping the runner on 1st could be something the Molitor and company want him to do. How would we know and even if we did, how would you measure that? Last week Mauer made a boneheaded play to cut off a ball that would have nailed the runner headed home and the runner on 1st still advanced to 2nd. I have to think a play like that would count against Rosario.

 

And his Range in LF is above average, which was an issue for guys like Willingham, Young and Grossman.

[rdehring]

I am seeing a ton of improvement this year at the plate. Yes, he has had a couple stretches of reverting to the old wild swinging self, but they have been short-lived before getting back to the new Eddie!

 

On defense, like everyone I just shake my head once in awhile when he makes either a bad throw or throw to the wrong base. But what I expect the defensive metrics doesn't give full credit for is his reaction and quickness to get to a lot of balls most left fielders wouldn't get to, thus, limiting a lot of hits to one base less than normal.

 

Does he have warts and things he can continue to work on, certainly. But we are seeing improvement at the plate. That tells me he still has a chance to become a very good left fielder, if he isn't already that.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

It seems like Rosario's boneheaded plays drive down the fielding metrics that his tools prop up.

 

Hopefully some extra work in the offseason and ST 2018 will get him put back on course.

 

He's showing some promise with the stick. I was convinced last year and earlier this year he'd swing at everything his whole career. He might have some selectivity streaks.

[ahart10]

Defensive metrics don't hold much value imho, he passes the eye test. Way too athletic to be compared with Hammer. Some mental gaphes on throws. He's been one of the top bats on a playoff caliber team. The idea that the other outfielders are twice as valuable is laughable to me.

[bluechipper]

Eddie is by far the worst defender of the 3 Twins OFers, but probably around average overall.

 

Here's the bad: with runners on base: .222/.275/.333 (.609)

with RISP: .247/.305/.356 (.661)

with 2 outs, RISP: .138/.242/.241 (.484)

[Guest]

He's OK. Good athlete, hopefully figuring out the strike zone, which pitches he hits best, and how to reduce mental mistakes. Unlikely to become an All Star. Probably only a corner outfielder. Would be good for Twins to have right handed power; wonder what kind of pitcher could be obtained for Rosario.

[Ben Noble]

He's had a nice bounce back season so far after his sophomore season slump. He's made adjustments at the plate and remains one of my favorite Twins.

[diehardtwinsfan]

He's a young player, as long as the trends are in the right direction, I'm not concerned. He's made a few boneheaded plays, I get that, but given his superior range for a corner OF and a steadily improving bat, I'm not concerned.

[bird]

If I'm his GM, I'm encouraged with his improvement. I attribute it mostly to maturity, but I remain concerned about him being easily excitable, and have concluded that his boneheaded outfield plays and his frequently horrible ABs are a function of his failure to coral his emotions in certain situations. I'd be exploring solutions involving whatever proven sports psychology methods are out there.

 

I'd also be inclined to hold onto him A better alternative probably won't bubble up from the system for a couple of years, and I'm using my tradable assets to acquire pitching prospects. However, if the right right-handed corner OF is there at the right price in free agency next winter, I might pull the trigger, especially if it was a guy with a great clubhouse reputation and an aversion to striking out.

[yarnivek1972]

My opinion really hasn't changed since he was struggling in late April. You probably stick with him until he prices himself out of a job and a viable candidate comes down the pipe. LaMonte Wade might be the viable candidate. And he's probably ready by the end of 2018. Which is about when Rosario figures to get pricier.

[gunnarthor]

Thanks all. My views are probably similar. His defense is better than what bWAR has for now. I like him but if I can flip him for a starting pitcher and plug Granite into LF and fill it later in FA, I'd do it. But if I have to keep him, I'm good too.

[adorduan]

I think his defense is better the the numbers show. Yeah, he makes a bonehead play/throw now and then but but he also makes plays that  a lot of other outfielders can't make (the recent Detroit game for example).  He's up to .294/.331/.479 and trending in the right direction. I'm in no hurry to replace him. 

[Ncgo4]

I may be crazy, but could a new mgr help? Rosario just seems to need a hug once in a while. Methinks Molly isn't a hug kind of a guy. I really believe that Eddie is potentially a great Left Fielder. He's got the arm and the range. If he can just stay focused in the field and at the plate he could be a 10 year rock in the corner.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Once again, Rosario's swing metrics are trending in the right direction and he's seeing success. No surprise there.

 

Compared to 2016, his O-Swing % is -4.3, his O-Contact % is +6.4, and his Z-Contact % is +2.5.

 

Going into the season, I said Rosario just needs to lay off the worst 3-4% of pitches thrown to him. It appears he's doing that and maybe even a bit more. He'll never be a walk machine and that's okay. He simply needs to give himself a real chance of hitting the ball by laying off pitches that no batter could lay good wood on.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Thanks all. My views are probably similar. His defense is better than what bWAR has for now. I like him but if I can flip him for a starting pitcher and plug Granite into LF and fill it later in FA, I'd do it. But if I have to keep him, I'm good too.

 

Agreed, he's made progress, but OF is deepish....and SP is not. He's certainly hitting more consistently well this year....now if he could just make better decisions in the field and the basepaths more often....

[Mr. Brooks]

Once again, Rosario's swing metrics are trending in the right direction and he's seeing success. No surprise there.

 

Compared to 2016, his O-Swing % is -4.3, his O-Contact % is +6.4, and his Z-Contact % is +2.5.

 

Going into the season, I said Rosario just needs to lay off the worst 3-4% of pitches thrown to him. It appears he's doing that and maybe even a bit more. He'll never be a walk machine and that's okay. He simply needs to give himself a real chance of hitting the ball by laying off pitches that no batter could lay good wood on.

He has made measurable progress on offense, you are right. Unfortunately, he's regressed in the field, and they've mostly cancelled each other out.

The good news is that Rosarios defensive shortcomings are almost entirely mental, so hopefully they can be fixed.

I've thought that Rosario would ultimately end up as a good 4th outfielder, but if he can keep trending this way on offense, and clean up the defense a bit, he could be an average to slightly above average corner outfielder for a few years.

[Yoke]

He's the kind of player that will make you curse at your TV, both in a good way and a bad way.

 

I like having him around, and he definitely brings something to the table, but I think he needs to improve his decision making. That should happen with more experience. He did play 2B for a couple years in the minors instead of the OF.

[Mike Sixel]

 

He's the kind of player that will make you curse at your TV, both in a good way and a bad way.

 

I like having him around, and he definitely brings something to the table, but I think he needs to improve his decision making. That should happen with more experience. He did play 2B for a couple years in the minors instead of the OF.

 

He's been a professional player for 7 years. How long does it take? Where to throw the ball is taught in weeks to teenagers. 

[Yoke]

 

He's been a professional player for 7 years. How long does it take? Where to throw the ball is taught in weeks to teenagers. 

And they all grasp it immediately?

 

He seems like the kind of player that wants to make the big play, and maybe it takes a little extra pounding into his head that he doesn't need to make the big play, he needs to make the right play.

 

Eventually it either gets through or you can sell. I'd prefer to have him around, at least as the 4th OF. He has tools that are valuable on a winning team.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I like Rosario but would definitely consider moving him for pitching if he finishes the season with an .800 OPS.

[gocgo]

I've seen two things from Eddie this year that has led to more success at the plate.  First, his eye at the plate is better which then forces the pitchers to throw him strikes and puts him in more favorable counts.  Second, he isn't missing the pitches that he should hit and because of his better approach at the plate, he's getting better pitches to hit.  It's sort of a snowball effect that starts with a better eye at the plate.