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2017 MLB draft thread

diehardtwinsfan

By diehardtwinsfan
in Twins Minor League Talk

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biggentleben FCL Twins

biggentleben

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As for Mac Gore, I'm not a fan of the mechanics even if he does repeat it but the stuff and command are quite polished for a HSer.  I'm just always weary of guys with huge helium later in the draft process.  

 

Gore's helium has really been all season as he was discussed in February/March as a top 5 guy. He just didn't have that helium out of showcases, but there are a lot of reasons that can change. Carlson has been bumped up a ton since April and his season beginning, but that's similar to Ian Anderson last season, and if you'd do the 2016 draft all over again, it's pretty certain Anderson's a consensus top 5 pick at this point rather than a "surprise" pick at #3. Interestingly, there's a lot of similarity between Anderson and Carlson.

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Bob Sacamento FCL Twins

Bob Sacamento

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Gore's helium has really been all season as he was discussed in February/March as a top 5 guy. He just didn't have that helium out of showcases, but there are a lot of reasons that can change. Carlson has been bumped up a ton since April and his season beginning, but that's similar to Ian Anderson last season, and if you'd do the 2016 draft all over again, it's pretty certain Anderson's a consensus top 5 pick at this point rather than a "surprise" pick at #3. Interestingly, there's a lot of similarity between Anderson and Carlson.

When I talk helium, I talk of since October/November when the WWBA tourney takes place, that's when I start my draft watching process (So if you want to talk 2018 Draft, I'm all ears).  As of November, Gore was not on the radar of Perfect Game or Baseball America as he didn't make either of their Top 100 prospects to watch.  It wasn't until March that he gained significant inflation, reaching Top 20 marks, and now in May we are in the Top 5 marks.  BA attributes it to growing an inch or two, which upticked his velo.  Not a fan of the mechanics at all:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nlyTIS4eOJI

 

 

 

Carlson has been on the radar for quite awhile, as he's been a Top 50 prospect since November, so his climb I completely understand.  He was enough of a prospect on the radar that even my amateur self took video of him:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WQwMoWURVGE

d-mac First Round Pick

d-mac

Verified Member
Posted
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Greene, Wright, Gore, Baz and Bukauskas all throw hard enough that their velocity will make an impact. As I said, no one necessarily will become an ace, but guys with plus velocity do tend to have the potential to become one; after all, it's possible to learn secondary pitches and control, it's next to impossible to learn velocity.

 

I'm struggling to understand why everyone thinks McKay is so safe. Has there ever been a safe guy who throws 90-93 or 88-90 as the recent reports say? There's nothing safe about that, he has zero margin for error unlike guys with plus velocity.

 

Also, the draft guys are watching these prospects through their personal historical vision, baseball has changed significantly in the past two years though. It's all about HR and strikeouts now. The guys who can command the zone but give up contact are not thriving much these days.

 

I care very little about velocity. I mean it's great and like you said it gives a pitcher more room for error, but it's hardly the only thing that determines a pitcher's success. I care about missing bats, avoiding hard contact, and avoiding walks. McKay checks all of those boxes. Would I prefer his fastball averaged 95? Well, duh. He's not perfect, just like none of the top group of players in this draft are perfect. When it comes to pitchers, people tend to get caught up on shiny fastball velocity. Worst case scenario, he can't cut it as a pitcher or he gets hurt. Then you just turn him into a position player and you've already got an advanced college hitter. 

Bob Sacamento FCL Twins

Bob Sacamento

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Sickles has a mock up today... McKay at 1... another college lefty at 35.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/5/18/15656104/2017-mlb-mark-draft-mark-one

I'd prefer the picks above and below, Vientos or Allen, to Tillo at 35, that just seems like a stretch.  I see him more of a second rounder than comp pick but lefties who throws hard always get a bump.

nicksaviking MVP

nicksaviking

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

 

I care very little about velocity. I mean it's great and like you said it gives a pitcher more room for error, but it's hardly the only thing that determines a pitcher's success. I care about missing bats, avoiding hard contact, and avoiding walks. McKay checks all of those boxes. Would I prefer his fastball averaged 95? Well, duh. He's not perfect, just like none of the top group of players in this draft are perfect. When it comes to pitchers, people tend to get caught up on shiny fastball velocity. Worst case scenario, he can't cut it as a pitcher or he gets hurt. Then you just turn him into a position player and you've already got an advanced college hitter. 

 

You're right in that I care about missing bats and not so much velocity, velocity just tends to be a large indicator and a contributing factor, but not always. I don't think a 91 MPH fastball is going to miss too many bats at the MLB level though, I'd think he'd be a pretty high contact kind of guy.

gunnarthor MVP

gunnarthor

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Sickels mock has Romero falling only to #15 to the Astros. I'm not sure about that but, maybe? And he doesn't have Clarke in his mock. I am hoping that one of those two is taken by us at 35/37.

Willihammer Cedar Rapids Kernels

Willihammer

Provisional Member
Posted
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Sickels: "McKay is a bit safer and has no shortage of upside himself." From the viewpoint of stats and trends, you might argue McKay has the higher ceiling than Wright. Look at the YoY trends:

 

Wright  K% BB% IP/GS
2016 26.4% 7.9% 5.83
2017 27.4% 7.7% 6.33
   
   
McKay  K% BB% IP/GS
2016 27.5% 9.0% 6.45
2017 35.9% 7.4% 6.67

 

You have to weigh the recent stuff more heavily of course, but assuming this velo thing is a one off blip, related to increased cutter usage possibly, then McKay has to be your "projection" pick I think. But these last few weeks could change things.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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Sickels: "McKay is a bit safer and has no shortage of upside himself." From the viewpoint of stats and trends, you might argue McKay has the higher ceiling than Wright. Look at the YoY trends:

 

Wright  K% BB% IP/GS
2016 26.4% 7.9% 5.83
2017 27.4% 7.7% 6.33
   
   
McKay  K% BB% IP/GS
2016 27.5% 9.0% 6.45
2017 35.9% 7.4% 6.67

 

You have to weigh the recent stuff more heavily of course, but assuming this velo thing is a one off blip, related to increased cutter usage possibly, then McKay has to be your "projection" pick I think. But these last few weeks could change things.

 

I think scouting the stat lines only is a mistake. I have not seen anyone say McKay's stuff is better.

gunnarthor MVP

gunnarthor

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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I haven't followed this as closely as others here, but McKay at 1:1 sounds disappointing to me. 

I'm not sure disappointing but he does seem boring. Wright (and Greene and Adell) have upside that is really exciting while McKay is the safe pick. 

 

That said, I'm sure the Twins scouts know more than me but, yeah, go with Wright.

Vanimal46 Cooperstown

Vanimal46

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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I'm not sure disappointing but he does seem boring. Wright (and Greene and Adell) have upside that is really exciting while McKay is the safe pick. 

 

That said, I'm sure the Twins scouts know more than me but, yeah, go with Wright.

 

After reading the other KLAW thread on here, McKay certainly seems like the boring pick... Especially if he's now only topping out in the low 90's on his fastball. 

Wright or Greene and I'll be a happy guy. 

diehardtwinsfan Minnesota Twins

diehardtwinsfan

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I read it somewhere else, but basically Wright has better stuff and McKay has better command/control.  Stuff is probably a bit harder to teach so to speak, though development can certainly make changes that improve stuff.  Command/Control issues are a bit more scary as those failures could mean the difference between making the majors and never getting there. 

InfraRen Draft Eligible

InfraRen

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

New Baseball America Mock from today has Twins taking Wright:

 

"The Twins have been in hard on Wright’s last three starts, and in his last five, he’s struck out 51 and walks seven in 39.1 innings while posting a 1.14 ERA. He’s showing up to four plus pitches at times and trending toward being the No. 1 overall pick, as long as the price is right."

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-mlb-draft-3-0-major-league-baseball-draft/#o3pkYr2Fza68hwe5.97

biggentleben FCL Twins

biggentleben

Verified Member
Posted
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I see that you are picking up on my report that the Twins really like Danner.

 

He's got a few teams that really like him. I know the Braves have been doing some hard looking at him recently, and I got some reports of who were in the stands with the Braves guys who were viewing him when I talked with them. I don't know if he actually gets that low, but I'd be surprised if the Twins let him get by 37 for sure.

Willihammer Cedar Rapids Kernels

Willihammer

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

Louisville and FL St. opened a 3 game series last night. McKay went 5.0 IP, allowed 5 hits, 5ER, 4 walks, 6 K's. 8/1 FO/GO. 111 pitches. Has anyone reported on the twitter what his velo was last night?

McKay also went 1-4 with a double and a walk.

Drew Ellis homered in 5 AB's to go with a strikeout. Yesterday Ellis and Mckay were named among 25 finalists for the Dick Howser Trophy, awarded to the top collegiate baseball player.

 

 

LSU and Miss. State opened a 3 game series. Alex Lange threw 7.0 IP, 6 hits, 1ER, 5 walks, 11 K's for the win. Rooker had 2 singles in 4 AB's, 1 walk, 1 K.

diehardtwinsfan Minnesota Twins

diehardtwinsfan

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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Posted

 

Louisville and FL St. opened a 3 game series last night. McKay went 5.0 IP, allowed 5 hits, 5ER, 4 walks, 6 K's. 8/1 FO/GO. 111 pitches. Has anyone reported on the twitter what his velo was last night?

McKay also went 1-4 with a double and a walk.

Drew Ellis homered in 5 AB's to go with a strikeout. Yesterday Ellis and Mckay were named among 25 finalists for the Dick Howser Trophy, awarded to the top collegiate baseball player.

 

 

LSU and Miss. State opened a 3 game series. Alex Lange threw 7.0 IP, 6 hits, 1ER, 5 walks, 11 K's for the win. Rooker had 2 singles in 4 AB's, 1 walk, 1 K.

 

Ouch... he's sure opening the door for Wright.  Why is it that the year we draft 1 overall, there is no clear consensus on who should go there.  Me no like.

drjim Cedar Rapids Kernels

drjim

Provisional Member
Posted
Posted

Ouch... he's sure opening the door for Wright. Why is it that the year we draft 1 overall, there is no clear consensus on who should go there. Me no like.

A couple more starts like the last 7-8 and Wright will be very close to a representative 1.

 

The big shame is no elite college bats.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

Cory: Please tell me the Twins will take Wright #1. And, as a Minnesotan, any chance at all that Sam Carlson falls to their pick at #35? I have my doubts.

 

Keith Law: Nonzero chance of Carlson falling, just because there are too many HS arms for them all to go in the first round, and then I think Carlson gets an overslot deal in the sandwich. Couldn’t tell you who they will take; I think it’s Wright, McKay, or Greene.

Mike Sixel GOAT

Mike Sixel

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

 

A couple more starts like the last 7-8 and Wright will be very close to a representative 1.

The big shame is no elite college bats.

 

Agreed. Wright was a possible 1:1 going into the year, and has looked like a real 1:1 the last 6 weeks or so. I think people say "this year looks worse than x" nearly every year.

nicksaviking MVP

nicksaviking

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

 

Ouch... he's sure opening the door for Wright.  Why is it that the year we draft 1 overall, there is no clear consensus on who should go there.  Me no like.

 

It feels like the team is getting screwed, but honestly, last year I only liked Gromme and Pint and I am more interested in both Greene and Wright than I was with either of those two.

 

Twins33 Draft Eligible

Twins33

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Has anyone reported on the twitter what his velo was last night?

Hudson Belinsky on twitter said up to 95 and was sitting at 90-93 in the 5th

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