2017 MLB draft thread

[Willihammer]

Is Pavin Smith even the best player on Virginia? 

 

His teammate Adam Haseley has more homers, more walks, runs faster, plays a more premium position (CF versus 1B). Smith does strikeout less, although Haseley is also very tough to strikeout (3.2% versus 7.8%). 

[markos]

 

It's okay for you to lack confidence. But you aren't supporting it with facts in either of your comments. Half the AA roster is 23 or under, and there's no one 27 or older. The median age of the roster is very likely one of the youngest in the Southern League. If you don't want to support your viewpoint with actual facts, why use made up ones?

I don't think you are looking at the right team, as every single point you made is untrue.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/team.cgi?id=9811adcd

The 2017 Chattanooga Lookouts have used 26 players so far.
7 players are 23-and-younger [Gordon (21), Stewart (22), Romero (22), Rosario (23), Jorge (23), Wade (23), Vielma (23)]
7 players are 27-and-older [Rodriguez (27), Turley (27), Fernandez (27), Rohlfing (28), Tracy (28), Clemens (29)]
The median hitter and pitcher ages for the team are actually OLDER than the PA-weighted average.
They have the second oldest hitters (by PA-weighted average) and third oldest pitchers. Even if you broaden it to all of AA, Chattanooga is definitely in the bottom-10 with both hitters and pitchers.

Also, the Chattanooga ERA is definitely bolstered by the fact that the 4 27-and-older pitchers have thrown 33% of the innings and combined for a 1.60 ERA.

 

Now, your points would all be more-or-less correct if you were talking about the Rays, Cubs or Braves affiliates. Combined, they have a single 27-year-old, a pitcher who has pitched all of 5 innings.

[Guest]

It's okay for you to lack confidence. But you aren't supporting it with facts in either of your comments. Half the AA roster is 23 or under, and there's no one 27 or older. The median age of the roster is very likely one of the youngest in the Southern League. If you don't want to support your viewpoint with actual facts, why use made up ones?

Not a big fan of attacking comments with the word, "you," but I'll respond respectfully.

 

As suggested by my original response, I agree that Chattanooga has a good team ERA, but these results are predominantly related to 27-29 year old minor league free agents. That is a fact stated in my original response, which I hope is clarified here. More specifically, the seven pitchers with the most innings include only one pitcher, Felix Jorge, who is both (1) pitching well and (2) possibly part of the future, but even Jorge is probably just the sixth most important pitcher on the roster, if you think Burdi is #5 (Burdi has thrown 6.1 good innings, which is a small sample, after missing a whole year.) Further, ERA is not a great indicator for translation of AA results to major league success, which the Twins seemed to finally recognize this winter, when they discussed the need for command. Unfortunately, in command statistics, such as walks and W/K ratio, Chattanooga is doing much worse, including having given up the most walks in the league (the team with the second most walks has thrown eight fewer innings).

 

 

The four most important pitchers in Chattanooga have combined for 24 innings, 21 hits, 21 walks, and 18 strikeouts. That's scary. The original question was whether the Twins have a minor league staff capable of maximizing a high school pitcher like Greene. Nothing has been shown to date that the Twins system is capable of developing a high school pitcher, who with most teams do not achieve their dream ceilings, e.g., Brien Taylor, Lucas Giolito, Kohl Stewart, Brady Aiken, less a team with continued problems developing pitchers.

 

Pointing to a good team ERA that is driven by success of pitchers 10 years removed from high school and in their first year in the Twins system is completely irrelevant to the question of whether the Twins have appropriate personnel (and processes) to develop Hunter Greene into a top major league pitcher. Greene may be a great talent, but he has only one pitch and there are other great talents in the draft who are further along the development path, and the college pitchers are more likely to achieve meaningful success with the Twins than is Hunter Greene - unless the minor league system is overhauled, which itself could take a few years after this year of watching.

[Thrylos]

 

I'm still not sure what leverage would exist to keep the Twins from drafting Greene. I know they will speak to his agent beforehand to get a sense of how much he wants to sign. But even if he says "I have been offered more than 1-1 money from San Diego." it still seems like the Twins can say "We will offer you 1-1 money and you will be the first pick. If you refuse to sign, you will have to wait a year and who knows where you will be drafted next year and for how much."

 

More like 3 years, since he is committed to a full College and won't be eligible for the draft until he is a junior.

 

Bottom line: If someone is drafted 1-1 cannot hope to be drafted any higher in the future, so he has zero leverage.

 

[gunnarthor]

 

More like 3 years, since he is committed to a full College and won't be eligible for the draft until he is a junior.

Much like Brady Aiken and Jacob Nix. Oh, wait.

[Thrylos]

 

Much like Brady Aiken and Jacob Nix. Oh, wait.

 

They did not attend college.  Greene is already committed.

 

Aiken's situation was slightly different, because of injury.  Still he got 1/2 of the money ($2.5M) that he would had gotten had he accepted the Astros $5M offer.

 

If anything, Aiken who lost $2.5M because of the bad advise he was given not to sign, is an example why 1-1 picks do not have any leverage.

 

Nix was a 5th rounder and not an 1-1 overall.  Irrelevant.  

[gunnarthor]

Both Nix and Aiken had commitments to major colleges - UCLA - and broke those commitments. A HS kid with talent like Nix and Aiken and Groome and Greene can (and should) try and re-enter the draft the next year.

[Hrbowski]

 

Is Pavin Smith even the best player on Virginia? 

 

His teammate Adam Haseley has more homers, more walks, runs faster, plays a more premium position (CF versus 1B). Smith does strikeout less, although Haseley is also very tough to strikeout (3.2% versus 7.8%). 

Smith is the best player at Virginia. His swing is more likely to bring success. Stats are not going to tell the whole story, especially in amateur baseball.

[Thrylos]

 

Both Nix and Aiken had commitments to major colleges - UCLA - and broke those commitments. A HS kid with talent like Nix and Aiken and Groome and Greene can (and should) try and re-enter the draft the next year.

 

You do realize that if one will not sign at 1-1 and re-enter the draft will lose $, like Aiken did, correct?

[gunnarthor]

 

You do realize that if one will not sign at 1-1 and re-enter the draft will lose $, like Aiken did, correct?

Probably, but that wasn't the issue. I merely corrected you that he would have to wait 3 years before being drafted again.

[bird]

 

I don't think you are looking at the right team, as every single point you made is untrue.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/team.cgi?id=9811adcd

The 2017 Chattanooga Lookouts have used 26 players so far.
7 players are 23-and-younger [Gordon (21), Stewart (22), Romero (22), Rosario (23), Jorge (23), Wade (23), Vielma (23)]
7 players are 27-and-older [Rodriguez (27), Turley (27), Fernandez (27), Rohlfing (28), Tracy (28), Clemens (29)]
The median hitter and pitcher ages for the team are actually OLDER than the PA-weighted average.
They have the second oldest hitters (by PA-weighted average) and third oldest pitchers. Even if you broaden it to all of AA, Chattanooga is definitely in the bottom-10 with both hitters and pitchers.

Also, the Chattanooga ERA is definitely bolstered by the fact that the 4 27-and-older pitchers have thrown 33% of the innings and combined for a 1.60 ERA.

 

Now, your points would all be more-or-less correct if you were talking about the Rays, Cubs or Braves affiliates. Combined, they have a single 27-year-old, a pitcher who has pitched all of 5 innings.

 

 

I probably deserve to stand corrected to some extent. However, the discussion we were having was limited to pitching. I could have been clearer. The first comment I made was to refute the claim that the pitching staff was performing poorly. The second comment I made was responding to a blanket statement that the AA team's pitching success was the product of 27-29 year olds. I looked at the current roster and saw Turley, Clemens, and Tracy (let's throw in Bard too) as fitting that claim. That left I believe 11 or so others who aren't 27-29.

 

So, the only points I refuted were that the pitching staff is struggling, with that being evidence of coaching incompetence. When the response to this was  that this third best ERA was a product of a staff full of 27-29 year olds, I refuted that too. I might be wrong about the median age of the staff being lower. That was a guess, and maybe a bad one based on my thinking that Stewart and Romero and a few others are young.

[bird]

 

Not a big fan of attacking comments with the word, "you," but I'll respond respectfully.

As suggested by my original response, I agree that Chattanooga has a good team ERA, but these results are predominantly related to 27-29 year old minor league free agents. That is a fact stated in my original response, which I hope is clarified here. More specifically, the seven pitchers with the most innings include only one pitcher, Felix Jorge, who is both (1) pitching well and (2) possibly part of the future, but even Jorge is probably just the sixth most important pitcher on the roster, if you think Burdi is #5 (Burdi has thrown 6.1 good innings, which is a small sample, after missing a whole year.) Further, ERA is not a great indicator for translation of AA results to major league success, which the Twins seemed to finally recognize this winter, when they discussed the need for command. Unfortunately, in command statistics, such as walks and W/K ratio, Chattanooga is doing much worse, including having given up the most walks in the league (the team with the second most walks has thrown eight fewer innings).


The four most important pitchers in Chattanooga have combined for 24 innings, 21 hits, 21 walks, and 18 strikeouts. That's scary. The original question was whether the Twins have a minor league staff capable of maximizing a high school pitcher like Greene. Nothing has been shown to date that the Twins system is capable of developing a high school pitcher, who with most teams do not achieve their dream ceilings, e.g., Brien Taylor, Lucas Giolito, Kohl Stewart, Brady Aiken, less a team with continued problems developing pitchers.

Pointing to a good team ERA that is driven by success of pitchers 10 years removed from high school and in their first year in the Twins system is completely irrelevant to the question of whether the Twins have appropriate personnel (and processes) to develop Hunter Greene into a top major league pitcher. Greene may be a great talent, but he has only one pitch and there are other great talents in the draft who are further along the development path, and the college pitchers are more likely to achieve meaningful success with the Twins than is Hunter Greene - unless the minor league system is overhauled, which itself could take a few years after this year of watching.

 

 

You make some great points. This helps me understand where you were coming from, and I apologize if I left the sense that my pushback was anything less than respectful. And I hadn't delved very deep. 

 

I don't know for certain, but I wouldn't question an opinion that the Twins are less capable of successfully developing a HS guy than the average org. I do know their results are abysmal, but which team's results aren't? I think we can both agree that a few statistics a few weeks into the season at AA are hardly the stuff on which to base a lot of conclusions, but you're right, the broader question is do we want the greater risk of a Hunter Greene given what we do know.

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

You make some great points. This helps me understand where you were coming from, and I apologize if I left the sense that my pushback was anything less than respectful. And I hadn't delved very deep. 

 

I don't know for certain, but I wouldn't question an opinion that the Twins are less capable of successfully developing a HS guy than the average org. I do know their results are abysmal, but which team's results aren't? I think we can both agree that a few statistics a few weeks into the season at AA are hardly the stuff on which to base a lot of conclusions, but you're right, the broader question is do we want the greater risk of a Hunter Greene given what we do know.

 

I personally think the team's problems in this area stem from development, not talent... so on that I think you have to give Falvey and Levine a bit more time.  I suspect though that most of the changes won't be that visible...

 

Getting back to Greene, the big issue there is the risk equation.  He's not going to be in the bigs 2-3 years from now... not likely at least. He needs work.  Ceiling of course is top shelf.  I get that, but he's got a much lower floor than say a guy like McKay. 

[InfraRen]

Must read for Greene fans:

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/04/24/hunter-greene-mlb-draft

[Mike Sixel]

 

Must read for Greene fans:

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/04/24/hunter-greene-mlb-draft

 

How anyone can not want this on their team amazes me.

[Vanimal46]

Sold! Well, I've been sold on Greene for a few months now. 

[InfraRen]

Yeah I'm gonna be pretty, pretty bummed/sad if they don't take him.

[Willihammer]

 

Must read for Greene fans:

 

https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/04/24/hunter-greene-mlb-draft

Sounds like he's a great kid.

[Hrbowski]

Greene is not the best player available in the draft, and anyone who has scouts comparing him to Syndergaard or A-Rod needs to ignore them. Especially the A-Rod comp. By the way, Baseball America wrote that MacKenzie Gore is beginning to pass Greene on a lot of teams' boards, so that is a name you should be keeping an eye on.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Greene is not the best player available in the draft, and anyone who has scouts comparing him to Syndergaard or A-Rod needs to ignore them. Especially the A-Rod comp. By the way, Baseball America wrote that MacKenzie Gore is beginning to pass Greene on a lot of teams' boards, so that is a name you should be keeping an eye on.

 

So, ignore KLAW or Longenhorn? Ignore BA. Who should we listen to?

 

You base this on your personal scouting of HS and college players?

[Hrbowski]

 

 

How anyone can not want this on their team amazes me.

I amaze you. I have never been high on Greene, but maybe that is because he is the most overhyped player in the draft. Flawless pitching mechanics and having command of three pitches is just talk to help sell publications.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I amaze you. I have never been high on Greene, but maybe that is because he is the most overhyped player in the draft. Flawless pitching mechanics and having command of three pitches is just talk to help sell publications.

 

So, you are accusing BA, KLAW and others of lying to sell what, exactly? 

 

Are people buying more of their services because they rate Greene highly? Wouldn't lying and being wrong make your services worth less?

[Willihammer]

One guy climbing the NCAA leaderboards is Missouri St 3B Jake Burger. Jr, 6'2, 210. R/R. Currently third in HR (17), 6th in Slg. Writeup from last winter here:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/2/20/14651198/jake-burger-scouting-report-2017-mlb-draft

He is following a very good Sophomore year (.349/.420/.689) with a monster junior year (.373/.474/.766).

[Vanimal46]

Hunter Greene mention on FG chat today:

Lord of the Infield Flies

12:53 Who's the most athletic pitcher you've scouted? And what do you look for on the mound when judging athleticism?

 

Eric A Longenhagen
12:54 Hunter Greene. watching them field their position, repeat their deliveries, balance and control when they're on their front foot, pick off move quickness from righties. Those are all points of identification for me.
It's also nice when Greene or Matt Bowman or Casey Kelly play SS for you, too.

[Hrbowski]

 

 

So, ignore KLAW or Longenhorn? Ignore BA. Who should we listen to?

 

You base this on your personal scouting of HS and college players?

I have never had a whole lot of respect for Longenhagen. KLAW, on the other hand, does have a background in scouting. If you want an article that shows Greene's great character, but is balanced on the baseball side you should read Hudson Belinsky's article, not SI.

[gunnarthor]

 

Greene is not the best player available in the draft, and anyone who has scouts comparing him to Syndergaard or A-Rod needs to ignore them. Especially the A-Rod comp. By the way, Baseball America wrote that MacKenzie Gore is beginning to pass Greene on a lot of teams' boards, so that is a name you should be keeping an eye on.

Link on the Gore thing?

[Hrbowski]

 

 

So, you are accusing BA, KLAW and others of lying to sell what, exactly? 

 

Are people buying more of their services because they rate Greene highly? Wouldn't lying and being wrong make your services worth less?

BA has not been over hyping Greene at all. On the other hand, calling Greene a generational talent is. When there is a generational talent in the draft interest goes way up, which means more insider subscriptions sold, etc. KLAW is doing his work by himself, so I wouldn't say he is lying, just sharing his own personal opinion, but comparing Greene to A-Rod is either bold-faced lying or ignorance.

[Hrbowski]

 

 

Link on the Gore thing?

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-2-0-brendan-mckay-hunter-greene-lead-still-wide-open-draft/

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-draft-2-0-brendan-mckay-hunter-greene-lead-still-wide-open-draft/

Thanks.  He was #28 on mlbpipeline's list.  Interesting to see where he is after they update next week.

 

[Hrbowski]

 

Thanks.  He was #28 on mlbpipeline's list.  Interesting to see where he is after they update next week.

Would not shock me if he is top five.