2017 MLB draft thread

[Willihammer]

In the last 50 years, who has done that? There is a reason you either pitch or hit at one time, not do both.

In the last 50 years pitchers have scoffed at taking AB's. Attitudes are changing. We have Zach Greinke and Jake Arrieta and Madison Bumgarner, Otani showing that it is possible to take that side of the game seriously too. I don't think it existed in the past because, far as I can tell, the expectation simply wasn't there.

[gunnarthor]

 

See above, name 1 player that has done that in the last 50 years?

I think the last real player to do that was Brooks Kieschnick for the Brewers in 2003 and 2004.  And he wasn't really a double threat but he did play the field some.  Mostly he was a good enough pinch hitter who could pitch in blow outs.  But in those two seasons he managed about 96 innings of relief work to a 95 ERA+ while putting up a 115 OPS+ in 144 PA.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think the last real player to do that was Brooks Kieschnick for the Brewers in 2003 and 2004.  And he wasn't really a double threat but he did play the field some.  Mostly he was a good enough pinch hitter who could pitch in blow outs.  But in those two seasons he managed about 96 innings of relief work to a 95 ERA+ while putting up a 115 OPS+ in 144 PA.  

 

Thanks, i just see no good idea here, with a number 1 pick type player. You are either trying to make him great, or not taking him. 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

In the last 50 years, who has done that? There is a reason you either pitch or hit at one time, not do both.

 

21 year old RHP/DH Shohei Otani of the Nippon Ham Fighters says hello.  Last year's line:

 

104 G, 323 AB, 65 R, 104 H, 18 2B, 1 3B, 22 HR, 67 RBI, 54 BB, 98 K, .322/.416/.588/1.004

 

In 21 GS, 4 CG, 10-4, 1.86 ERA 140.IP, 89 H, 4 HR, 45 BB, 174 K 1.86 ERA, 0.96 WHIP

[Mike Sixel]

 

21 year old RHP/DH Shohei Otani of the Nippon Ham Fighters says hello.  Last year's line:

 

104 G, 323 AB, 65 R, 104 H, 18 2B, 1 3B, 22 HR, 67 RBI, 54 BB, 98 K, .322/.416/.588/1.004

 

In 21 GS, 4 CG, 10-4, 1.86 ERA 140.IP, 89 H, 4 HR, 45 BB, 174 K 1.86 ERA, 0.96 WHIP

 

I guess I should have been more precise, in that I was asking about MLB.

 

And, from what I read, teams have said they would only want Otani to pitch to start, though we have no idea what they'd really do if he gets to come here. 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I guess I should have been more precise, in that I was asking about MLB.

 

And, from what I read, teams have said they would only want Otani to pitch to start, though we have no idea what they'd really do if he gets to come here. 

Well they'll have to wait until likely 2017-18 or 2018-19 offseason now to decide as with the new CBA rules it pretty much cemented that he wouldn't be posted this offseason.  He's been quite adamant that if he did play in the MLB he wants to hit AND pitch as he has been in the JPL.  He's not a free agent until 2021 when he could sign with whomever he wanted and his team has no real incentive to deal him now as the max they can receive for posting him is 20M.  

 

I'm sure Joe Maddon and the Cubs would play him wherever he wanted

[diehardtwinsfan]

Honestly, with the way roster management has evolved over the last decade taking away from a bench, having a guy who can go two ways is not necessarily a bad thing. Ideally he's a guy like Ervin from the mound and Olerud at the plate, but even if he was only average at one skill while being above average on the other side, that's a nice piece to have.

 

The real question is how do you develop it. I have no idea what these guys do in their spare time. Pitchers obviously aren't throwing every day, so there is time for him to work on his bat I'd think.

 

 

[nytwinsfan]

 

Honestly, with the way roster management has evolved over the last decade taking away from a bench, having a guy who can go two ways is not necessarily a bad thing. Ideally he's a guy like Ervin from the mound and Olerud at the plate, but even if he was only average at one skill while being above average on the other side, that's a nice piece to have.

 

The real question is how do you develop it. I have no idea what these guys do in their spare time. Pitchers obviously aren't throwing every day, so there is time for him to work on his bat I'd think.

Exactly. I don't know enough about pitcher practice, preparation and recovery to know how feasible this is, but I like the idea in theory. Obviously you don't want a pitcher playing a position like 3B or SS on off days, but DH or 1B with a talented enough athlete isn't ridiculous. Think of the advantage of having McKay as a two-way plater would be. He could platoon with Park/Grossman so that the Twins would always have two lefties (McKay and Mauer) against righties at DH/1B, leaving Park and Grossman for lefties. 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Honestly, with the way roster management has evolved over the last decade taking away from a bench, having a guy who can go two ways is not necessarily a bad thing. Ideally he's a guy like Ervin from the mound and Olerud at the plate, but even if he was only average at one skill while being above average on the other side, that's a nice piece to have.

 

The real question is how do you develop it. I have no idea what these guys do in their spare time. Pitchers obviously aren't throwing every day, so there is time for him to work on his bat I'd think.

Well we will see with the Padres' Christian Bethancourt experiment with him as a reliever and a backup catcher, outfielder.  It's an interesting way to use that 25th man spot.

[Mike Sixel]

Well we will see with the Padres' Christian Bethancourt experiment with him as a reliever and a backup catcher, outfielder.  It's an interesting way to use that 25th man spot.

Is he projected to be an ace type pitcher?

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Is he projected to be an ace type pitcher?

 

Other than Greene, I don't think there's a lot in terms of ace upside.  All of the college guys probably top out as 2s, though the floor is much MUCH higher. 

 

McKay has come on strong.  He wasn't originally in discussion for 1 over all, but he's been lights out on the mound this year as well as a beast at the plate.

[markos]

 

McKay has come on strong.  He wasn't originally in discussion for 1 over all, but he's been lights out on the mound this year as well as a beast at the plate.

The frustrating thing with McKay is that he is so much more valuable to an NL team than the Twins. For him to be a legitimate asset at 1B/DH, he essentially needs to be one of the top-50 hitters in baseball. While I think that he does have that kind of ceiling, I'm not super confident that he'll hit at that level even if he dedicates himself to hitting. In the NL, on the other hand, it is pretty clear that even a top-300 hitter would be one of the best hitting pitchers in the game. For example, Jake Arrieta was the best hitting pitcher last year, and his wRC+ (91) was essentially the same as Trevor Plouffe. It is pretty easy to see how an NL team would say, "We're going to develop you as a pitcher, but you'll hit for yourself in the minors and DH as often as possible. Once you're in the big leagues, we will use you as a PH and backup at 1B when you aren't pitching." If he can be an average hitter, or even slightly below-average, he is probably adding 10-20 runs per season with his bat, not taking into account the added roster flexibility. That scenario just doesn't work for the Twins.

[gunnarthor]

I think it's pretty clear that when McKay is drafted he will only focus on one thing.  Probably pitching.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

The frustrating thing with McKay is that he is so much more valuable to an NL team than the Twins. For him to be a legitimate asset at 1B/DH, he essentially needs to be one of the top-50 hitters in baseball. While I think that he does have that kind of ceiling, I'm not super confident that he'll hit at that level even if he dedicates himself to hitting. In the NL, on the other hand, it is pretty clear that even a top-300 hitter would be one of the best hitting pitchers in the game. For example, Jake Arrieta was the best hitting pitcher last year, and his wRC+ (91) was essentially the same as Trevor Plouffe. It is pretty easy to see how an NL team would say, "We're going to develop you as a pitcher, but you'll hit for yourself in the minors and DH as often as possible. Once you're in the big leagues, we will use you as a PH and backup at 1B when you aren't pitching." If he can be an average hitter, or even slightly below-average, he is probably adding 10-20 runs per season with his bat, not taking into account the added roster flexibility. That scenario just doesn't work for the Twins.

 

You're right that he probably won't hit like Bryant, but to pretend the possibility isn't there sells him short. And yes, I agree NL teams would benefit as well, but in age of keeping defenders on the bench, having a bat first pinch hitter available, even if he is just league average for a 1B, is still a very nice benefit.

 

I agree he will most likely pitch and stick to that, but personally, I'm very interested if it would be possible to develop him as such. The fact that there haven't been 2 way players since Keshnick in the early 2000s and we are now seeing them again tells me that other teams are seeing that advantage too.

[Willihammer]

In BA's writeup McKay's described as a no. 3 rotation guy, whereas his hit tool is "elite" with developing power. "Most teams thus far appear to favor him as a first baseman."

 

FWIW A first baseman hasn't been drafted 1-1 since Adrian Gonzalez in 2000.

[Mike Sixel]

 

In BA's writeup McKay's described as a no. 3 rotation guy, whereas his hit tool is "elite" with developing power. "Most teams thus far appear to favor him as a first baseman."

 

FWIW A first baseman hasn't been drafted 1-1 since Adrian Gonzalez in 2000.

 

Interesting on the pitching thing. No way he goes 1-1 as a pitcher then. And, if you want him as a hitter, he's doing that every single day, not pitching. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

You're right that he probably won't hit like Bryant, but to pretend the possibility isn't there sells him short. And yes, I agree NL teams would benefit as well, but in age of keeping defenders on the bench, having a bat first pinch hitter available, even if he is just league average for a 1B, is still a very nice benefit.

 

I agree he will most likely pitch and stick to that, but personally, I'm very interested if it would be possible to develop him as such. The fact that there haven't been 2 way players since Keshnick in the early 2000s and we are now seeing them again tells me that other teams are seeing that advantage too.

 

but we aren't seeing it in young guys, in the minors, that were just drafted, right? we are seeing it from ok guys that are older. I don't think you draft and plan for that.

[Willihammer]

 

Interesting on the pitching thing. No way he goes 1-1 as a pitcher then. And, if you want him as a hitter, he's doing that every single day, not pitching. 

If that's the case then McKay should fall out of the top tier. After all, there are pitchers with #1 upside, and shortstops, and center fielders, and catchers available.

[Mike Sixel]

 

If that's the case then McKay should fall out of the top tier. After all, there are pitchers with #1 upside, and shortstops, and center fielders, and catchers available.

 

Agreed. I think. Can he play OF or 3B? 

[Willihammer]

 

Agreed. I think. Can he play OF or 3B? 

He's strictly a 1B/DH according to every report I've read.

[Mike Sixel]

 

He's strictly a 1B/DH according to every report I've read.

 

this is why we can't have good things.

 

the top college OF available swings and misses too much, the best hitter is a 1B only type, and the best pitcher is a HS RH....who is really tall....

[Willihammer]

Yeah I just had a similar realization. No high school righthander has been taken first overall, and neither has a college first baseman.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yeah I just had a similar realization. No high school righthander has been taken first overall, and neither has a college first baseman.

 

Ya, me too. maybe we should go back 2 pages, and pretend this never happened.

[Willihammer]

 

Ya, me too. maybe we should go back 2 pages, and pretend this never happened.

Well, no, ha.

 

I think BA puts it well

 

 

Beyond the top two, the order of the players is harder to solve than a Leslie Knope scavenger hunt. “No one has separated themselves,” is a common refrain from scouts from area supervisors to crosscheckers to special assistants on up to scouting directors.

 

[AZTwin]

Who's the relief pitcher in this draft that we could make the first ever relief pitcher drafted 1-1?

[Willihammer]

And right on cue, Sickels says McKay has "just a tad more potential on the mound."

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/3/30/15098724/2017-mlb-draft-brendan-mckay-lhp-1b-university-of-louisville

[Mike Sixel]

 

And right on cue, Sickels says McKay has "just a tad more potential on the mound."

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/3/30/15098724/2017-mlb-draft-brendan-mckay-lhp-1b-university-of-louisville

 

I see you asked our questions! eagerly awaiting a reply. 

 

thanks for the find!

[Willihammer]

 

I see you asked our questions! eagerly awaiting a reply. 

 

thanks for the find!

I don't think I'm gonna get a reply.

 

Asked a follow up in today's article though:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/3/31/15129654/brendan-mckay-vs-hunter-greene

[AlwaysinModeration]

Perhaps there is a good place-kicker available?

 

Who's the relief pitcher in this draft that we could make the first ever relief pitcher drafted 1-1?

[diehardtwinsfan]

After reading Sickles, I think the idea of him two way is more likely given that it looks like he won't need to stay long in the minors I like McKay.  Probably my pick right now..

 

Oh, and he shares the same birthday with me... as well as Byron Buxton... so there's that.