2017 MLB draft thread

[Cory Engelhardt]

Alex Faedo (Florida) Alex Lange (LSU) Brendan McKay (Louisville) and JB Bukauskus (North Carolina) all pitch today.

 

It's fun to have baseball back, isn't it?

[King]

 

Alex Faedo (Florida) Alex Lange (LSU) Brendan McKay (Louisville) and JB Bukauskus (North Carolina) all pitch today.

 

It's fun to have baseball back, isn't it?

McKay had 9 strikeouts in 6 innings and also hit a home run at the plate.

 

Jheremy Brown ‏@JBrownPG  2h2 hours ago
Good start to 2017 for @UofLBaseball LHP Brendan McKay. K'd side, threw 13 FBs & 11 were @ 93 mph. Hard downer CB @ 84, late bite. #MLBDraft

 

keithlawVerified account ‏@keithlaw  2h2 hours ago

Lefty Brendan McKay of @GoCards was 91-94 in the first here in Clearwater

 

Steve Givarz ‏@SteveGivarz  2h2 hours ago
.@UofLBaseball LHP Brendan McKay cruising through 2, 4 K's two weak 6-3's. FB 91-93 T94, CB 81-83 with hard action.

 

Jheremy Brown ‏@JBrownPG  16m16 minutes ago
Over 6 innings @UofLBaseball LHP Brendan McKay: 81 pitches/60 strikes. 9 Ks-0 BB. 25 swing & misses; 20 FB, 4 CB, 1 CH

[Cory Engelhardt]

 

McKay had 9 strikeouts in 6 innings and also hit a home run at the plate.

 

Jheremy Brown ‏@JBrownPG  2h2 hours ago
Good start to 2017 for @UofLBaseball LHP Brendan McKay. K'd side, threw 13 FBs & 11 were @ 93 mph. Hard downer CB @ 84, late bite. #MLBDraft

 

keithlawVerified account ‏@keithlaw  2h2 hours ago

Lefty Brendan McKay of @GoCards was 91-94 in the first here in Clearwater

 

Steve Givarz ‏@SteveGivarz  2h2 hours ago
.@UofLBaseball LHP Brendan McKay cruising through 2, 4 K's two weak 6-3's. FB 91-93 T94, CB 81-83 with hard action.

 

Jheremy Brown ‏@JBrownPG  16m16 minutes ago
Over 6 innings @UofLBaseball LHP Brendan McKay: 81 pitches/60 strikes. 9 Ks-0 BB. 25 swing & misses; 20 FB, 4 CB, 1 CH

 

Bukauskas was great for UNC too. 6 innings, 3 hits,  10 k's 1 bb 1 hbp and 0 runs. I read from Michael Lananna that Bukauskus was up to 96 with the fastball and 87 with the slider.

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Not the best night for Wright either.

http://floridagators.com/boxscore.aspx?path=baseball&id=12660

 

 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Bukauskas was great for UNC too. 6 innings, 3 hits,  10 k's 1 bb 1 hbp and 0 runs. I read from Michael Lananna that Bukauskus was up to 96 with the fastball and 87 with the slider.

JB has one of the nastiest sliders, but he's slated to be a relief pitcher.

[Bob Sacamento]

With the start of the college baseball season, Baseball America just did a preview podcast for the upcoming 2017 season.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-mlb-draft-podcast/

 

Draft poor on lefty pitching options, college hitters. Draft plus with high school talent and college pitching.

 

Prospects covered included:

 

Hunter Greene - just hit 102mph w/ movement, plus slider, changeup, and command won't turn 18 til August, late first rounder as a shortstop (plus-plus power, hit tool avg), difficult for hitters to elevate pitches

Alex Faedo - College, odds on favorite to go 1-1 if healthy, minor knee issues, might take awhile to get to full potential

Kyle Wright - College, long clean arm action, repeats mechanics, 

Royce Lewis - HS, 60 to 70 tools across the board, 60 powercan play SS/CF, dynamic on bases and field,

Jerrad Kendall - College, hit tool question, extremely athletic, undersized, very quick twitch, very good and long track record like Nick Senzel, Corey Ray, Dansby Swanson Andrew Benetendi types

Brendan McKay - College, best lefty college pitcher and best pure college hitter 

Kevin Smith -  college, pure SS, power bat, good Cape season, hit tool questions

Mark Vientos - HS poorman Machado comp, hard contact ability, extremely young just turned 17 in Nov

Jordan Adell  HS - twitchy athlete, hit tool questions, plus speed, 92-95mph on the mound

JB Buskakas - College,  best pure stuff, only 20yo, athletic, likely a RP

 

 

[King]

Hunter Greene - just hit 102mph w/ movement, plus slider, changeup, and command won't turn 18 til August, late first rounder as a shortstop (plus-plus power, hit tool avg), difficult for hitters to elevate pitches

 

80 FB, 60 SL, 60 CH, 60 command

50 hit, 70 power at shortstop

 

 

well thats just Shohei Otani status

[twinsfanstreif]

Not the best night for Wright either.

http://floridagators.com/boxscore.aspx?path=baseball&id=12660

You mean Faedo?

[nytwinsfan]

 

Hunter Greene - just hit 102mph w/ movement, plus slider, changeup, and command won't turn 18 til August, late first rounder as a shortstop (plus-plus power, hit tool avg), difficult for hitters to elevate pitches

 

80 FB, 60 SL, 60 CH, 60 command

50 hit, 70 power at shortstop

 

 

well thats just Shohei Otani status

 

Interesting about Greene. Everyone seems to agree on the FB being plus-plus, but I hear very very different things on the chanegup and slider. Others say the changeup and slider are very raw and while there is potential, they need a ton of work. That just isn't a 60 grade, so unless those 60s are median future grades or something, this doesn't make much sense. 

[twinsfanstreif]

With the start of the college baseball season, Baseball America just did a preview podcast for the upcoming 2017 season.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/college-mlb-draft-podcast/

 

Draft poor on lefty pitching options, college hitters. Draft plus with high school talent and college pitching.

 

Prospects covered included:

 

Hunter Greene - just hit 102mph w/ movement, plus slider, changeup, and command won't turn 18 til August, late first rounder as a shortstop (plus-plus power, hit tool avg), difficult for hitters to elevate pitches

Alex Faedo - College, odds on favorite to go 1-1 if healthy, minor knee issues, might take awhile to get to full potential

Kyle Wright - College, long clean arm action, repeats mechanics,

Royce Lewis - HS, 60 to 70 tools across the board, 60 powercan play SS/CF, dynamic on bases and field,

Jerrad Kendall - College, hit tool question, extremely athletic, undersized, very quick twitch, very good and long track record like Nick Senzel, Corey Ray, Dansby Swanson Andrew Benetendi types

Brendan McKay - College, best lefty college pitcher and best pure college hitter

Kevin Smith - college, pure SS, power bat, good Cape season, hit tool questions

Mark Vientos - HS poorman Machado comp, hard contact ability, extremely young just turned 17 in Nov

Jordan Adell HS - twitchy athlete, hit tool questions, plus speed, 92-95mph on the mound

JB Buskakas - College, best pure stuff, only 20yo, athletic, likely a RP

My initial rankings of who I want is

1. Greene

2. Wright

3. Lewis

4. Faedo

5. McKay or Buskakas

 

I don't really want Kendall because I'm concerned with his hit tool, doesn't seem like a fit. Kevin Smith I have not looked at too much yet, could be a wild card if he has an excellent spring. I also have Faedo lower than most because I feel like he could have a lengthy injury history due to his mechanics and he has already had several issues so far, you can't help the team much from the DL.

[Vanimal46]

Interesting about Greene. Everyone seems to agree on the FB being plus-plus, but I hear very very different things on the chanegup and slider. Others say the changeup and slider are very raw and while there is potential, they need a ton of work. That just isn't a 60 grade, so unless those 60s are median future grades or something, this doesn't make much sense.

 

Without watching a second of the kid play, it makes sense that his secondary pitches are very raw. I mean, how many HS kids can catch up to a 100 MPH pitch? Can't imagine he's challenged to mix his pitches at all.

[beckmt]

Unless one of the college pitchers really step forward,. still want Greene for his best pure stuff.  At worst he is a closer with that fastball, at best an ace.

[nytwinsfan]

 

Without watching a second of the kid play, it makes sense that his secondary pitches are very raw. I mean, how many HS kids can catch up to a 100 MPH pitch? Can't imagine he's challenged to mix his pitches at all.

I agree it makes sense, and I didn't mean that as a knock on him. I just meant it conflicted with claiming he CURRENTLY has a 60 changeup and 60 slider, as the post above suggested. If those were future projections, then that could explain it, but that wasn't clear.

[twinsfanstreif]

I agree it makes sense, and I didn't mean that as a knock on him. I just meant it conflicted with claiming he CURRENTLY has a 60 changeup and 60 slider, as the post above suggested. If those were future projections, then that could explain it, but that wasn't clear.

Certainly those are future grades, prospects rarely if ever grade out like that initially. The grades from Lewis for example read like one of the best SS in the majors which we know he currently is not

[nytwinsfan]

 

Certainly those are future grades, prospects rarely if ever grade out like that initially. The grades from Lewis for example read like one of the best SS in the majors which we know he currently is not

Ok, well, a lot (I am pretty sure most) of the websites use current grades, not future grades, and if they do use future grades, they combine the two so that the changeup grade would be, for instance, 45/55.  So it is just a little strange to see them using future grades only, without specifying that that is what they are.

[twinsfanstreif]

Ok, well, a lot (I am pretty sure most) of the websites use current grades, not future grades, and if they do use future grades, they combine the two so that the changeup grade would be, for instance, 45/55. So it is just a little strange to see them using future grades only, without specifying that that is what they are.

I don't see a ton of strictly present grades because it would skew perspective towards college guys every time. I like the split grades because it gives you a little bit of an idea of how raw they are and how high the ceiling is. I have seen guys use only future grades because for a prospect that is what you're looking for is future potential, not really what they currently are.

[gunnarthor]

Lewis sounds pretty intriguing, actually.  I know he's the player we least want - HS position player - but a bunch of 60s across the board sounds great.

[King]

 

I agree it makes sense, and I didn't mean that as a knock on him. I just meant it conflicted with claiming he CURRENTLY has a 60 changeup and 60 slider, as the post above suggested. If those were future projections, then that could explain it, but that wasn't clear.

It's not current. It's future projection. If it was current, he would be MLB ready superstar and beyond a lock to go #1. And I wasn't saying those are my projections for him I was just putting the post above into scouting tools.

 

People are projecting his secondary pitches to be plus based on his current athleticism.

 

 

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

You mean Faedo?

yeah that.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Interesting prospect posted on MILB.  Wonder where he'd fall...

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/2/19/14657054/mlb-draft-prospects-garrett-cave-opening-eyes-with-tampa

 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Ok, well, a lot (I am pretty sure most) of the websites use current grades, not future grades, and if they do use future grades, they combine the two so that the changeup grade would be, for instance, 45/55.  So it is just a little strange to see them using future grades only, without specifying that that is what they are.

BA's John Manuel, JJ Cooper and Hudson Belinsky were talking of future grades of plus for Greene in terms of command, and secondary pitches.  Greene has alot of tools that scouts like and add in his athleticism, many of those scouts feel those tools are even better.  They mentioned Greene isn't solely concentrating on the pitching side as he's a top notch HS SS prospect as well, once he gives up hitting and focusing on pitching some feel the sky is the limit for Greene.

[nicksaviking]

With only assumptions about how his secondary pitches are projected I'm going to go out on a limb: they're probably not going to be required to be great pitches if he's hitting 102 as a starter.

 

In fact a 102 MPH heater is going to automatically make any secondary pitches a pretty decent pitch. Good lord, how early does the batter have to make up his mind on a pitch when it's going that fast? I'd think his secondary stuff would be just fine as long as they can hit the strike zone once in awhile and not also travel 100 MPH.

[Vanimal46]

 

With only assumptions about how his secondary pitches are projected I'm going to go out on a limb: they're probably not going to be required to be great pitches if he's hitting 102 as a starter.

 

In fact a 102 MPH heater is going to automatically make any secondary pitches a pretty decent pitch. Good lord, how early does the batter have to make up his mind on a pitch when it's going that fast? I'd think his secondary stuff would be just fine as long as they can hit the strike zone once in awhile and not also travel 100 MPH.

Agreed. And could you imagine HS kids trying to make up their minds swinging at a 100 MPH pitch? I'd seriously fear for my life at the plate against him as a 16-18 year old. 

[nytwinsfan]

 

With only assumptions about how his secondary pitches are projected I'm going to go out on a limb: they're probably not going to be required to be great pitches if he's hitting 102 as a starter.

 

In fact a 102 MPH heater is going to automatically make any secondary pitches a pretty decent pitch. Good lord, how early does the batter have to make up his mind on a pitch when it's going that fast? I'd think his secondary stuff would be just fine as long as they can hit the strike zone once in awhile and not also travel 100 MPH.

Disagree. Yes, a 102 fb might help a mediocre curveball or changeup play up, but without good movement, those two are never going to be plus pitches, and a good fastball (obviously) doesn't change the movement of a curveball or changeup.

 

I'd much rather have a pitcher with a 95-96 mph fb and plus secondary pitches (especially as a starater) than a pitcher with a 102 fb and mediocre or even just average secondary pitches.  That being said, a lot of scouts seem to believe Greene will develop good secondary stuff, in large part due to his athleticism.  

[King]

Eric Longenhagen prospects chat over at fangraphs today..

 

Adam: In a deep draft for college arms, does that make it easier for one of the top 3 teams to take a risk on Hunter Greene knowing they can probably get someone closer to the majors with their next pick?
Eric A Longenhagen: It’s an interesting idea but it’s easier to move the prep kids back than it is college.

 

Philip: Is JB Bukuaskas a starter for you?
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes but not a total slam dunk. I’m less apt to write up someone as a pen arm because of height if the arm works well so it doesn’t bother me that he’s 6′, but there is some effort there. He’s filthy, though.

 

Conrad: “(Nick) Allen began swinging lefthanded in the offseason, and his swing shows promise.” Thoughts?
Eric A Longenhagen: Thinking a SoCal trip is a must this spring.

 

Seiya: Could you see the Padres taking DL Hall at 3, and giving out higher bonuses to later picks?
Eric A Longenhagen: Not sure. Preller was at Vandy on Thursday to see Wright (so was Boras, btw) and they really only have one other pick to play with big money…there’s less room for creativity this year. But I like how much you like Hall because I think he’s a top 10 guy, too.

 

YouthBerry: How does J.J. Schwarz of Florida (2017 draft) compare to 2016’s college Catchers like Zack Collins and Matt Thaiss (moving off C I know)?
Eric A Longenhagen: More power than Thaiss, more physical projection than Collins, I think Collins has a better chance to hit, better pitch recog and ability to deal with offspeed stuff.

 

YouthBerry: Thoughts on Jeren kendall’s hit tool? He struck out 122 times in 435 college at-bats (28%), how concerning is that?
Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, you’ve nailed the most difficult thing to nail down about his profile. The bat speed is there, for sure. And he has a good approach. But man, that swing path is kind of odd. If I knew he were going to hit for power, I wouldn’t care. But I’m not sure about that yet, either.

 

Adam: It seems like Hunter Greene has a REALLY good fastball and a lot of projection. Is there more to his current repertoire or is his ranking dependent on his athleticism and aptitude?
Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, I think you’re on it. The slider will flash and got better as last year went along. I saw him in the spring during his junior year, then all during the showcases and his feel for it improved. Wouldn’t surprise me if it was a solid 55 this spring.

 

David: Good to see you out at USD last week! Since Wright’s disappointing start speaks for itself and Kendall spent the whole time getting walked and trying to bunt… what’s your read on Will Toffey? Somewhere in the middle of Day 2 of the draft?
Eric A Longenhagen: I though Wright was fine (it’s February) and yeah, I didn’t like some of Corbin’s decisions that limited my look at Kendall. I liked Toffey. Good feet during in and out, plus arm, hands are kind of inconsistent. Great approach. Probably not prototypical power for third so yeah, day two to a team that prioritizes approach.

 

Jean: I’d say Brice Turang has the following future ratings: 60 Hit, 60 Run, 50 Power, 55 Defense, 55 Arm. This is obviously very early, though would you agree with these tool grades?
Eric A Longenhagen: You might be heavy on the power (if it’s game) but otherwise I don’t have a quarrel with you.

 

Michael: Have you gotten the chance to see Hans Crouse? What do you think of him?
Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, several times. Was encouraging his stuff ticked up late last summer, the delivery is unique and tough to confidently say he’s a starter.

[King]

 

With only assumptions about how his secondary pitches are projected I'm going to go out on a limb: they're probably not going to be required to be great pitches if he's hitting 102 as a starter.

 

In fact a 102 MPH heater is going to automatically make any secondary pitches a pretty decent pitch. Good lord, how early does the batter have to make up his mind on a pitch when it's going that fast? I'd think his secondary stuff would be just fine as long as they can hit the strike zone once in awhile and not also travel 100 MPH.

 

Right. If he's touching 102 (actually, not sure where this report came from or how credible it is, whose radar gun?) in high school the average high school kid isn't touching that.

 

As for a high school prospect touching 102 with little command or secondary offerings, look no further than Tyler Kolek. He has struggled mightily in pro ball, as a starter in pro ball he was not throwing as hard (by my understanding - low to mid 90s). To top it off his elbow since blown up. I'm not making a comparison between Greene and Kolek here, just an example of a recent HS prospect who could throw hard but struggled without anything other than his fastball in pro ball.

 

This tweet is from 2014.

 

 

This was Eric Longenhagens report on Kolek from this past offseason.

Scouting Report
We’re waiting to see how much of what made Kolek the second-overall pick in 2014 is still extant after he returns from Tommy John this year. He was touching 100 with a hammer curveball at Area Code tryouts in 2013 and, while his velocity held firm, his breaking-ball quality waned as the draft approached. (He had started tinkering.) The body went backward, and scouts were growing concerned about the violence in his delivery.

 

Then, in pro ball, Kolek started struggling to miss bats and throw strikes (the latter was expected, at least initially) throughout both of his pro seasons. He looked much better, physically, but his fastball was sitting more 93-96 (still good) and his secondary stuff was very inconsistent. He had TJ later in the spring of 2016 and probably won’t be back until May or June of 2017. The upside here (upper-90s, plus curve, and some sort of viable offspeed pitch) is high, but the risk is enormous, even independent of injury.

 

[prouster]

Here are some updates regarding potential 1-1 selections from the weekend.

 

Friday's Games:

 

Jaren Kendall (vs. Illinois-Chicago), 2-5 with a homer, 0BB 0K

Kyle Wright, 6IP, 4H, 1R, 0BB, 7K

Alex Faedo (vs. U Miami), 8.2IP, 2H, 0R, 1BB, 8K

Alex Lange (vs. Maryland), 6IP, 6H, 1R, 2BB, 12K

J.B. Bukauskas (vs. Radford), 7IP, 3H, 0R, 1BB, 11K

Brandon McKay (vs. Nebraska-Omaha), 5IP, 2H, 2R, 4BB, 5K

 

Saturday's Games:

 

Jaren Kendall, 0-4, 1BB, 4K

 

Also of note: LSU's Jared Poche tossed eight scoreless inning against Maryland on Saturday, giving up one hit while walking two and striking out six. In 13 innings pitched on the year, he has given up one hit and the two walks from last night. Could be someone to keep an eye on for Comp A or maybe the second/third round.

 

Edit: Poche's first start against Army was a seven inning no-hitter, the program's first individual no-hit effort since 1979. It also happened to be the 2,500th win in program history.

[diehardtwinsfan]

106 pitches to make it through 5 innings for Wright last night.  Struck out 8, walked 2, 5 runs (3 earned).

http://www.gomatadors.com/boxscore.aspx?path=baseball&id=12609

 

Cannot find a box score for Faedo, but he went 7 scoreless last night. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

Bukauskas - nice night, 7 IP, 105 pitches, 9 K, 1 BB.

 

Alex Lange didn't make it 2 innings.  Not a good night.

 

McKay hasn't pitched since the 24th of Feb.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Nice write up on Poche.   I have to say, nearly getting back to back no hitters is impressive. I cannot find much on where his draft stock was to start the season, but this guy might be a fun one to watch.  he didn't pitch last night, but it gives a second reason to check LSU's box scores.