If then.....a trade for pitching question.

[caninatl04]

The original thread has been lost. As I understand it, the scenario is:

It's the trading deadline and

The twins are a little over .500

 

I think we all agree that absent those parameters, no trade makes sense. But, under that scenario, might (emphasis on might) a trade make sense?

 

The Twins minor league is VERY strong at middle infielders and (lower down) future CFs. Indeed, one could argue that there is a bit of a traffic jam at middle infield in the minors.

 

It is at least a little possible that the Twins could get a rental # 3 pitcher for Vielma, a CF prospect and maybe one of the many, many power relievers.

[Mike Sixel]

 

The original thread has been lost. As I understand it, the scenario is:
It's the trading deadline and
The twins are a little over .500

I think we all agree that absent those parameters, no trade makes sense. But, under that scenario, might (emphasis on might) a trade make sense?

The Twins minor league is VERY strong at middle infielders and (lower down) future CFs. Indeed, one could argue that there is a bit of a traffic jam at middle infield in the minors.

It is at least a little possible that the Twins could get a rental # 3 pitcher for Vielma, a CF prospect and maybe one of the many, many power relievers.

 

No, it still doesn't make sense. Not to me. This is not a team on the verge of being champions, even if somehow 2 games over at the break. No.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'm very lukewarm on a Santiago extension, but 2/20 would make me reconsider. I really wonder if that is enough.

Yeah. I would be pretty surprised if Santiago was actually willing to accept that deal right now.  It might be the deal he winds up getting this winter, but it's not looking likely that he would get significantly less than that, and I think he'd rather roll the dice in the meantime that he can find a better deal.

[drjim]

 

Yeah. I would be pretty surprised if Santiago was actually willing to accept that deal right now.  It might be the deal he winds up getting this winter, but it's not looking likely that he would get significantly less than that, and I think he'd rather roll the dice in the meantime that he can find a better deal.

 

Unless he really likes it in Minnesota, and it's one of those situations at the deadline that he either signs an extension or gets traded, I don't see him doing that deal before the season ends.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yeah. I would be pretty surprised if Santiago was actually willing to accept that deal right now.  It might be the deal he winds up getting this winter, but it's not looking likely that he would get significantly less than that, and I think he'd rather roll the dice in the meantime that he can find a better deal.

That's probably an offseason deal.

 

But waiting until the offseason is always a risk. You never know when some team will overbid for pitching and offer Santiago something along the lines of 3/30 or 2/24. That begins to step outside what I'd be willing to pay for the guy.

[caninatl04]

I think the market would dictate 2/25 to 30

[yarnivek1972]

At an ERA around 4, that probably puts Santiago at about an average to slightly below average #3. The current AL average ERA for starting pitchers is 3.96

 

Curiously, the NL average is almost half a run higher. I haven't looked it up, but that has to be pretty rare.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Unless he really likes it in Minnesota, and it's one of those situations at the deadline that he either signs an extension or gets traded, I don't see him doing that deal before the season ends.

Ah, the "Suzuki principle".  

 

I agree that Santiago is unlikely to follow that path.  He's got a track record of a consistently average-ish starting pitcher.  He may not break the bank this winter, but there's going to be a market for him, and he's going to have options.  Suzuki was only a few months removed from backup status (and probably only a few months away from returning to backup status too).

[kab21]

 

Unless he really likes it in Minnesota, and it's one of those situations at the deadline that he either signs an extension or gets traded, I don't see him doing that deal before the season ends.

The problem for Santiago is that he doesn't get his results how teams (and forum analysts) want. He has a wimpy fastball/magic stuff and a declining K rate to go along with poor peripherals. He is like the anti-Nolasco. Nolasco has 'stuff' and very good peripherals and it got him a bigger contract than Santiago expects.

Most likely he explores FA but anything is possible. He did finish poorly last year and possibly that risk convinces him to take guaranteed money from a team that seems to want him.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Barring catastrophic injury, Santiago's FA floor this winter is probably 2/16 -- I'll call that "the Tigers Pelfrey line."

 

Even with injury, Santiago's FA floor could easily match either of the "Twins Pelfrey lines" -- 1/4 or 2/11.

 

Not much risk for him in passing up 2/20 right now.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I am really lukewarm for more guaranteed years or significantly more per year.

At the same time I am terrified of the Twins 2018 rotation and I think people are a little too optimistic that the Twins can easily go out and sign a comparable pitcher or two. 

But -- if the Twins rotation outlook is so dire -- doesn't that play into Santiago's leverage?  He has to know that at 2/20, the Twins will still be just as interested in November as they are today.

[yarnivek1972]

Barring catastrophic injury, Santiago's FA floor this winter is probably 2/16 -- I'll call that "the Tigers Pelfrey line."

 

Even with injury, Santiago's FA floor could easily match either of the "Twins Pelfrey lines" -- 1/4 or 2/11.

 

Not much risk for him in passing up 2/20 right now.

There is always risk, especially for a pitcher. The next pitch you throw could be the last one you throw. It's up to him to weigh that risk versus whatever the Twins offer. Again, IMO making any offer until July would be foolish.

[kab21]

 

But -- if the Twins rotation outlook is so dire -- doesn't that play into Santiago's leverage?  He has to know that at 2/20, the Twins will still be just as interested in November as they are today.

That is why they negotiate on these types of things instead of sitting down in a room and sign a contract in 10 minutes. There are a lot of scenarios that could happen. Santiago could get traded and put up a two awful months headed into FA. The Twins have moved on at that point and his FA market has cooled. Santiago could also feel lucky and finish out the season with a career best ERA and get 4 years like Nolasco. But as I said before I think he likely explores the FA market. An extension is possible though.

 

And I have said 2/20ish. Maybe it ends up being 2/24 with a vesting/team option and a 2-3M option buyout.

[USAFChief]

Santiago has put up 180 IP in each of the last 3 seasons.  If he does it this year, it'll be 4 straight.  Career ERA 3.79.

 

He'll have zero problem beating 2/20 this winter.  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Santiago has put up 180 IP in each of the last 3 seasons.  If he does it this year, it'll be 4 straight.  Career ERA 3.79.

 

He'll have zero problem beating 2/20 this winter.  

 

At some point, you just admit that some pitchers have some kind of something that makes their stuff more effective than it should be. I'd say 3-4 years is a pretty good sample size.

[Linus]

Any trade for pitching should be coordinated with the prime years of Sano Buxton et al. This year doesn't matter.

[gocgo]

I'm not in favor of the "all in" approach that some teams take when they trade away future prospects for the stud that will put them over the top for one year.  To me, it boils down to about a 1 in 12 shot at winning it all vs. a better shot at being in the playoffs on a regular basis.  The playoffs are a weird, wide open thing.  If a team gets hot, they can win it all with less talent than another team who paid dearly for that stud to bring them to the promise land.  I like the possibility of a dynasty over a shot at winning it for a year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Any trade for pitching should be coordinated with the prime years of Sano Buxton et al. This year doesn't matter.

This sure looks like it could be a "prime year" for Sano...

[amjgt]

I don't see anyone on here saying "go all in"

 

I see four schools of thought, under the original scenario...

 

1) trade our most valuable assets for future assets.

2) do nothing and ride it out

3) low-level rental trade for a 4/5 type pitcher

4) go get a 2/3 that is locked up beyond this year

 

If they do "1" the fans will revolt

 

"2" is the safe play

 

I'm probably a "3" but if the cost is right (taking on money, rather than trading multiple promising prospects) I could be convinced to be a "4"

[FlauerPauer]

I personally believe you have to have the mindset of "win now" if you are in contention as the trade deadline approaches.  Realistically, the majority of prospects fail and that's hoping one or two of Romero, Berrios, Burdi (more likely), Melotakis (likely), or our other pitching prospects are going to make an immediate difference. I don't make any type of trade of this caliber without having the right to negotiate an extension.

 

Right now, I think the only player off the table is Sano.  Maybe Buxton and Kepler make this list.  Maybe, maybe Gordon.  Everyone else would be fair game for me; however, the only true off limits is Miggy.  Fans have suffered through enough losing seasons and lackluster playoff appearances only to be let down because the team was one or two players away.  This stinks.  I wouldn't rule out relief options as well. That may be the Twins' biggest need more than anything, right now.

 

------> The Minnesota Twins franchise, not including the Senators, has only won SIX, SIX, count them SIX playoff series in 56 years as a franchise. <------ (baseball-reference.com)

 

If they are in contention towards the trade deadline and can realistically bring in a front line starter (with an extension), I say you absolutely HAVE to do it.  

 

Santana is not an ace.  Santiago is not a #2.  I am holding judgement on Hughes as a fourth or fifth option until he faces the league for a second time; I don't think he is going to succeed.  He is getting hit really, really hard.  Who knows what they have in Berrios.  Mejia should be good in the next year or two -- a lefty that throws 94 is nothing to scoff at.  I think he got hurt by not pitching on a regular basis during the beginning of the season.

 

Maybe this isn't the year, but this FO needs to show the ability to bring in a difference making player.  Whether that is through free agency, trade, or player development from this years draft and future drafts doesn't matter to me. Looking at the upcoming free agent class, I am not too impressed with the starting pitching.  Cueto doesn't really do it for me.  I think Arreita is overrated and will want to stay in the NL where he has had success.  Bumgarner excites me, but no way the Giants don't pick up that option.  I don't know if free agency is the way to go to acquire starting pitching; trade may be the best route.  

 

#StrikeoutsMatter

[yarnivek1972]

I personally believe you have to have the mindset of "win now" if you are in contention as the trade deadline approaches. Realistically, the majority of prospects fail and that's hoping one or two of Romero, Berrios, Burdi (more likely), Melotakis (likely), or our other pitching prospects are going to make an immediate difference. I don't make any type of trade of this caliber without having the right to negotiate an extension.

 

Right now, I think the only player off the table is Sano. Maybe Buxton and Kepler make this list. Maybe, maybe Gordon. Everyone else would be fair game for me; however, the only true off limits is Miggy. Fans have suffered through enough losing seasons and lackluster playoff appearances only to be let down because the team was one or two players away. This stinks. I wouldn't rule out relief options as well. That may be the Twins' biggest need more than anything, right now.

 

------> The Minnesota Twins franchise, not including the Senators, has only won SIX, SIX, count them SIX playoff series in 56 years as a franchise. <------ (baseball-reference.com)

 

If they are in contention towards the trade deadline and can realistically bring in a front line starter (with an extension), I say you absolutely HAVE to do it.

 

Santana is not an ace. Santiago is not a #2. I am holding judgement on Hughes as a fourth or fifth option until he faces the league for a second time; I don't think he is going to succeed. He is getting hit really, really hard. Who knows what they have in Berrios. Mejia should be good in the next year or two -- a lefty that throws 94 is nothing to scoff at. I think he got hurt by not pitching on a regular basis during the beginning of the season.

 

Maybe this isn't the year, but this FO needs to show the ability to bring in a difference making player. Whether that is through free agency, trade, or player development from this years draft and future drafts doesn't matter to me. Looking at the upcoming free agent class, I am not too impressed with the starting pitching. Cueto doesn't really do it for me. I think Arreita is overrated and will want to stay in the NL where he has had success. Bumgarner excites me, but no way the Giants don't pick up that option. I don't know if free agency is the way to go to acquire starting pitching; trade may be the best route.

 

#StrikeoutsMatter

If you don't believe that Santana is an ace or that Santiago is a number two, can you really believe the Twins will remain in contention as their level of competition increases?

[FlauerPauer]

 

If you don't believe that Santana is an ace or that Santiago is a number two, can you really believe the Twins will remain in contention as their level of competition increases?

 

I believe they can compete, but Santana is a 2/3 career wise. Granted, he has been pitching out of his mind during the span of his last 20-23 starts.  Santiago has been solid.  Career #3.  So yes, I still believe that they can stay in contention.  I don't really see any of these AL Central teams being all that dominate.  Twins offense is pretty good with Dozier really underachieving.  The boys need to prevent runs.  Right now, the bullpen is the biggest issue; no way this team stays in contention with this group of relievers.  

 

Ride a hot streak from Santana and a contract year from Santiago and hope the rest of the rotation can remain competent.  Upgrade when necessary.

[kab21]

 

Santiago has put up 180 IP in each of the last 3 seasons.  If he does it this year, it'll be 4 straight.  Career ERA 3.79.

 

He'll have zero problem beating 2/20 this winter.  

Yet people on here are saying don't do it.

But the point should be that you approach him about it in July. If he says no then you move on. At least see if he interested in extending early (seemingly contrary to what this board wants for puzzling reasons). We don't know what he is thinking.

And don't get stuck on exactly 2/20. It could be higher than that.

[drjim]

Ah, the "Suzuki principle".

 

I agree that Santiago is unlikely to follow that path. He's got a track record of a consistently average-ish starting pitcher. He may not break the bank this winter, but there's going to be a market for him, and he's going to have options. Suzuki was only a few months removed from backup status (and probably only a few months away from returning to backup status too).

It worked out well with Suzuki!

[Linus]

This sure looks like it could be a "prime year" for Sano...

And Buxton and Kepler and Rosario...

[DaveW]

I'm not sure the Twins should try to trade for a starter, those prices are usually sky high. I do think though, without a doubt they should trade for a RP or three.

 

Bullpen is what will ultimately doom this team imo.

 

You can scrap together a rotation of: Santana, Santiago, Hughes, Berrios and be "ok" as they will keep you in most games.

 

But the bullpen needs help, big time.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And Buxton and Kepler and Rosario...

Rosario is 25 years old and currently sporting the highest OPS+ of his career thus far.

 

Among others, Vargas is 26 and doing the same. Grossman is 27, Escobar 28 -- not guys you would consider "core" but they are contributors. Santana and Santiago might be having career years too.

 

I don't mind some caution, but I don't think you can rule anything out yet based on some platonic ideal of what your developed "core" will look like in some future season. It's possible the front office already did that when considering bullpen moves this past offseason and we've paid a price for that already.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I tend to agree that the Twins don't have the pieces to get anything major done on the trade front, but that still doesn't mean we can't consider it as the season develops. Especially since there are new FA compensation rules that might affect the midseason trade market:

 

"Why this summer’s trade market could be even more intriguing than usual"

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/trade-market-buyers-sellers-deadline-yankees-cubs-rangers-giants-mariners-reds-dodgers-ken-rosenthal-050917

[yarnivek1972]

I'm not sure the Twins should try to trade for a starter, those prices are usually sky high. I do think though, without a doubt they should trade for a RP or three.

 

Bullpen is what will ultimately doom this team imo.

 

You can scrap together a rotation of: Santana, Santiago, Hughes, Berrios and be "ok" as they will keep you in most games.

 

But the bullpen needs help, big time.

If by "this team" you mean this year, I think that would be a mistake. I still don't see this as a legitimate contender once they face good teams. With the Sox losing last night, the only teams the Twins have played that are currently above .500 are the Red Sox, Indians and Tigers. The Twins are 3-9 against those teams.

 

IMO if trades are to be made, they should be made with the future as top priority. Not the present. I think we see the Twins take quite a reality check starting this weekend.

[Linus]

Rosario is 25 years old and currently sporting the highest OPS+ of his career thus far.

 

Among others, Vargas is 26 and doing the same. Grossman is 27, Escobar 28 -- not guys you would consider "core" but they are contributors. Santana and Santiago might be having career years too.

 

I don't mind some caution, but I don't think you can rule anything out yet based on some platonic ideal of what your developed "core" will look like in some future season. It's possible the front office already did that when considering bullpen moves this past offseason and we've paid a price for that already.

My point was simply that Sano could be a once in a decade / generation type player and the twins can't waste that by not having credible pitching while he is around (and the others around his age). One could argue that the Twins wasted many of Mauer good years and the corresponding salary by fielding non competitive teams. I don't want Sano s best years wasted by trotting out starting rotations such as we have right now.