North Korea

[gunnarthor]

So, it looks like all 100 Senators are going to a North Korea briefing at the White House on Wed. Apparently, the White House was the location selected by the Senate to get the briefing but is not part of this?  Which makes no sense.  And Pence cut his pacific trip a day short. 

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2017/04/24/donald-trump-north-korea-mitch-mcconnell/100854560/

 

I don't think Trump is dumb enough to start a war but if you wanted to think he was, this would be bad news.

[Mr. Brooks]

Unfortunately, I think war with North Korea is inevitable, whether it's next year or 15 years from now.

They are going to keep trying to put a nuke on an intercontinental missile, and eventually they will figure out how, and that madman can't be allowed to have that under any circumstance.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Unfortunately, I think war with North Korea is inevitable, whether it's next year or 15 years from now.
They are going to keep trying to put a nuke on an intercontinental missile, and eventually they will figure out how, and that madman can't be allowed to have that under any circumstance.

 

China is really the only means of stopping this short of war.

[kab21]

If China would just stop propping up this maniacal regime so the country/gov't would collapse and a more reasonable gov't take control. Of course, China doesn't want SK or the US gaining any ground in Asia so they will basically continue to sponsor this madman.

However I wish Trump would stop hitting the hornet's nest with a stick. His lack of tact with other countries has been met with carefully measured responses that downplay just how stupid his positions are but NK responds to his stupidity with even greater stupidity and nobody wants to lose face. 

[glunn]

I think that the doomsday clock is closer to midnight than during the Cuban missile crisis. Too many hotheads and too many non-state agents. What happens if a small nuke or even a dirty bomb explodes in a major city in our country or another country that possesses nukes? What happens if the nut in North Korea thinks that he is going down anyway and decides he has nothing to lose?

 

We pay a high price as a species for our failure to assert logic over tribalism.

 

Our tribal nature prevents us from building enough trust to agree to stop fighting wars.  Sometimes I wish that we could face some inter-terrestrial menace that could unite our species, but I wonder if we could evolve enough to maintain peace after that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think that the doomsday clock is closer to midnight than during the Cuban missile crisis.

It is, but only because the Cuban Missile Crisis happened so quickly the Doomsday Clock missed it entirely.

 

Still, this is scary stuff.

[TheLeviathan]

 

 What happens if the nut in North Korea thinks that he is going down anyway and decides he has nothing to lose?

 

All the more reason we do need to be pressing China for alternatives.  We know they want a leader there hostile to the west/pro China, but I'm sure we can find a better compromise than this whack-job.

 

Because if he is allowed to stay in power and they do figure out their weapons program......then this scenario becomes not just likely, but almost certain IMO.

[drjim]

I would start by declaring China a currency manipulator.

[drjim]

But in all seriousness, China doesn't want that regime to collapse, it would lead to a refugee crisis they want no part of. They probably would go for a peaceful reunification if it was possible.

[kab21]

 

But in all seriousness, China doesn't want that regime to collapse, it would lead to a refugee crisis they want no part of. They probably would go for a peaceful reunification if it was possible.

I am pretty sure that China would never want peaceful reunification in a million years and that is why they continue to prop up this insane gov't (preventing collapse). It took the USSR collapsing to reunify Germany but China isn't going anywhere. This is a stalemate where the insane man in the middle that can't be touched (and is coddled by China) is allowed to develop and test nuclear weapons.

[ashbury]

However I wish Trump would stop hitting the hornet's nest with a stick. His lack of tact with other countries has been met with carefully measured responses that downplay just how stupid his positions are but NK responds to his stupidity with even greater stupidity and nobody wants to lose face. 

You figure that not even Trump wants to be the President who loses Honolulu or Seattle to a nuclear strike, even if we go on to "win" that war decisively. So then a lot of this from him surely is a bluff. The thing about bluffs, though, is that you only do them when you *want* to be called: the idea being that your opponents continue to call your "bluffs" again and again only to discover each time that you hold the superior hand.

[gunnarthor]

http://gizmodo.com/american-media-are-getting-people-at-home-ready-for-war-1794620783

 

 

[drjim]

 

I am pretty sure that China would never want peaceful reunification in a million years and that is why they continue to prop up this insane gov't (preventing collapse). It took the USSR collapsing to reunify Germany but China isn't going anywhere. This is a stalemate where the insane man in the middle that can't be touched (and is coddled by China) is allowed to develop and test nuclear weapons.

 

Why do you say that?

 

I suspect peace is the priority for them, followed by preventing refugees.

[a-wan]

I can't believe you guys don't believe in Jared Kushner and his ability.

[glunn]

 

You figure that not even Trump wants to be the President who loses Honolulu or Seattle to a nuclear strike, even if we go on to "win" that war decisively. So then a lot of this from him surely is a bluff. The thing about bluffs, though, is that you only do them when you *want* to be called: the idea being that your opponents continue to call your "bluffs" again and again only to discover each time that you hold the superior hand.

Some people have told me that they think that Trump would not mind losing these liberal bastions.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Unfortunately, I think war is inevitable here.  There's a reason why people didn't like a guy like Trump with the keys to the nuclear trigger, and the same is true with a guy like Trump and a conventional US military. He won't stand for them. Quite frankly, I don't think Kim what's his name is much different in that regard. 

 

China is the part I don't get here.  They can stop this, and quickly.  They aren't.  They could invade tomorrow and no one would care. I know they want that buffer of North Korea between them and South Korea, so just go in and replace him with a calmer puppet. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I know they want that buffer of North Korea between them and South Korea, so just go in and replace him with a calmer puppet. 

This is what I don't understand, either. China could topple North Korea in five minutes. Why haven't they done it already?

 

Or is this the event that causes them to do it? While North Korea has thumped their chest for more than a decade, this is the first time they've really shown their teeth. If they keep it up, China might just walk in and settle this for them.

 

I suspect one of the last things China wants is for the US to get involved with boots on the ground. That destabilizes the region, gives the US more leverage in the area, undermines the Chinese/American relationship, and will likely wreak havoc with their economy.

 

They gain nothing and lose a lot by allowing the US to get involved.

[Willihammer]

I think it might be naive to suggest the region + the US would stand idly by were China to invade NK. There must be some benefit to the status quo we're not grasping.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I think it might be naive to suggest the region + the US would stand idly by were China to invade NK. There must be some benefit to the status quo we're not grasping.

 

Agreed.

[TheLeviathan]

I agree, so what could it be?  My working theory is that China somewhat fears North Korea.  They have such close proximity that any intervention on their part would almost certainly be met with retaliation.

 

And perhaps NK can't launch a missle to Seattle yet, but I bet they could hit Beijing.

 

I could be way off though.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think it might be naive to suggest the region + the US would stand idly by were China to invade NK. There must be some benefit to the status quo we're not grasping.

Yeah, probably.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I agree, so what could it be?  My working theory is that China somewhat fears North Korea.  They have such close proximity that any intervention on their part would almost certainly be met with retaliation.

 

And perhaps NK can't launch a missle to Seattle yet, but I bet they could hit Beijing.

 

I could be way off though.

 

they must have chemical weapons, conventional weapons, and maybe dirty bomb capabilities. I'd guess they could hit China pretty hard if they wanted.

[TheLeviathan]

 

they must have chemical weapons, conventional weapons, and maybe dirty bomb capabilities. I'd guess they could hit China pretty hard if they wanted.

 

That's my thought, China knows they can't push too hard without being the one that pays the heaviest price.  So they are playing a delicate balancing game here, but I'm not sure it can be maintained.  This creepy little a-hole is on another level from his creepy a-hole bloodline.

[Mike Sixel]

 

That's my thought, China knows they can't push too hard without being the one that pays the heaviest price.  So they are playing a delicate balancing game here, but I'm not sure it can be maintained.  This creepy little a-hole is on another level from his creepy a-hole bloodline.

 

i agree, the line is very, very, fine. I'm glad I'm not President of any nation.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

This creepy little a-hole is on another level from his creepy a-hole bloodline.

Dunno, he'll have quite a time topping dear ol' dad. Didn't something like 25% of the population die during the 90s?

[Pardon My Dinger]

Where's that South Korean guy who joined up at TD when we signed Park when you need him?

[TheLeviathan]

 

Dunno, he'll have quite a time topping dear ol' dad. Didn't something like 25% of the population die during the 90s?

 

C'mon, he was upstanding enough to report/not deny all his state-sanctioned murders.  Give the man some credit.

[kab21]

 

Why do you say that?

 

I suspect peace is the priority for them, followed by preventing refugees.

Peace is the priority for them. And peace comes from propping up the insanity. Reunification is not a consideration at all for them. It never has been.

[USAFChief]

China has pretty much the same problem we have...just what exactly do you do about anything in N Korea? They don't respond to sanctions, don't care about world opinion, and military action would be incredibly bloody.

 

If you take out nuclear facilities from distance, you are likely forced into a ground conflict.

 

This isn't a new problem, which is why the strategy has always been to let the damn thing collapse on its own while watching closely.

[DaveW]

My super super basic understanding is that China doesn't want the refugee problem when NK inevitably bombs the **** out of SK the moment the US or China invades.