82-74

[Doomtints]

 

And guys like Dozier, Mauer, Buxton, Kepler all should progress. 

It goes both ways.

The key is to keep winning games.

 

The three of them hitting better won't help the pitching.

[ThejacKmp]

 

The key is going to be how the "reinforcements" do:
 

If Berrios, Park and a couple of the young bullpen arms can contribute? Then anything is possible in a bad, bad division.

As long as the team is winning, the relative leash needs to be short. Park should be up like, right now. Meija needs to be sent down if he can't make it out of the 2nd inning again.

 

Like this a lot. That is one aspect of 2015 that isn't talked about - Duffey came up and provided a spark down the end run and replaced Pelfrey when he turned back into a pumpkin. That's one part of this year that I'm optimistic about - guys like Berrios and Gonsalves could provide the same injection during the season. Not to mention hitters like Park, Vargas, Granite and Palka.

 

I don't think this team will make the playoffs but .500 is within reasonable reach.

[ThejacKmp]

 

The relief pitchers currently have a 1.61 ERA. 6 of the 8 relievers who have pitched have not allowed a run. They will regress, not get stronger. 

 

Tons of reinforcements in the minors though - lots of arms to get excited about. Pen in August will be different than pen now.

[ThejacKmp]

 

In regards to the division, Fangraphs wasn't very high on anyone other than Cleveland.  Preseason projected win totals:

 

Cleveland 93.5

Detroit 81.6

Kansas City 75.5

Twins 74.9

Chicago 67.8

 

That probably does increase the potential that one of those non-Cleveland teams could pad their record a bit above their "true talent" level.

 

Agreed. Last year the Royals went 46-30 against the AL Central and 35-51 outside the Central. That's a pretty hollow 81-81 finish. Not crazy to think that the Twins could do something similar since everyone but Cleveland is looking pretty flawed. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Tons of reinforcements in the minors though - lots of arms to get excited about. Pen in August will be different than pen now.

 

If the pen is different, doesn't that imply that the pen wasn't good enough leading up to August, or that the team wasn't in the hunt, and RP were traded?

[spanman2]

I want to see them play good consistent ball.  Buxton improving his AB approaches would be great.  Sano improving in the field to name a couple.  Thus far they have played very fundamental ball compared to last year with the exception of one game I believe anyway.  Six games is what we have to go by.  Certainly not a large sample size but things within those six games to be encouraged about for certain.  Four upcoming against Cleveland in the next home stand should give some more insight as to how far this team is progressing or not.  A competitive record around Memorial Day would be a great sign heading into the summer months!

[Doomtints]

 

Tons of reinforcements in the minors though - lots of arms to get excited about. Pen in August will be different than pen now.

 

Not saying the sky will fall -- but the reality is that the reliever's ERA will rise. 

Hopefully slowly.

[drjim]

What will likely really hurt the relievers is if starters get into trouble and the innings need to expand. I'm still very concerned about the rotation, and not especially confident in the reinforcements. That will trickle down to the rest of the staff. But if Duffey stays in the pen, I think there is enough there, along with some potential reinforcements, to keep the unit solid all year.

 

The offense can/should get better. Defense looks like it's going to be very solid.

 

This is a formula for a team that should remain representative. If they can keep the the starting pitching patched together and maybe get unexpected contributions from the young guys, no reason they can't remain in the hunt.

[bluechipper]

 

The three of them hitting better won't help the pitching.

The object of the game is to score more runs than the other team. There's more than one way to do that.

[bluechipper]

 

If the pen is different, doesn't that imply that the pen wasn't good enough leading up to August, or that the team wasn't in the hunt, and RP were traded?

Or maybe just a couple of the weak links are replaced: Chargois for Tonkin and Jay for Breslow.

[Loosey]

I don't know about playoffs, but fundamentally this team seems better than last year.  Obviously outfield defense is leaps and bounds better.  Sano appears to be more focused this year now that he has established positions of 3rd and 1st base.  

 

As with life, if you can just take care of the simple things correctly the rest of the accomplishments will be a bonus.  So far they have done that for most part.

[ThejacKmp]

 

If the pen is different, doesn't that imply that the pen wasn't good enough leading up to August, or that the team wasn't in the hunt, and RP were traded?

 

Maybe, maybe not. This isn't TR's show anymore. There's a focus on developing pitchers for the long haul, not keeping vets around until you can't. I also think there are guys in the minors who can force moves. If Chargois or Wimmers is dominating, it isn't necessarily going to be that someone isn't doing their job. The new FO is going to be willing to trade and release guys they aren't married to. Just because they kept Tonkin now doesn't mean that they aren't looking at him for a few months and deciding, "We're comfortable designating him for assignment and seeing what happens."

 

There's also the probability of injury. Or ineffectiveness by Hayley/Tonkin types that doesn't lose you games (they are in games you're way up or down in) but makes them expendable.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Maybe, maybe not. This isn't TR's show anymore. There's a focus on developing pitchers for the long haul, not keeping vets around until you can't. I also think there are guys in the minors who can force moves. If Chargois or Wimmers is dominating, it isn't necessarily going to be that someone isn't doing their job. The new FO is going to be willing to trade and release guys they aren't married to. Just because they kept Tonkin now doesn't mean that they aren't looking at him for a few months and deciding, "We're comfortable designating him for assignment and seeing what happens."

 

There's also the probability of injury. Or ineffectiveness by Hayley/Tonkin types that doesn't lose you games (they are in games you're way up or down in) but makes them expendable.

 

a: not sure how we know anything about the new FO and their style yet.

b: If Chargois is dominating, and the bullpen is about average, you think they'll just cut a guy? I don't know if any of them have options other than Duffey.

c: Agreed, there could be an injury.

d: If they only replace guys thah don't have a role, and guys with a role are "meh" or better, are they going to pitch? Are they going to "demote" a veteran to a lesser role?

 

I just don't know how everyone can keep typing with such certainty:

a: that they have any idea how the new FO will operate

b: that the team can somehow be good, and the bullpen somehow is turned over

[Doomtints]

 

The object of the game is to score more runs than the other team. There's more than one way to do that.

 

Thanks because I definitely did not know that.

Back to the point. Hitting won't solve a pitching problem. As the Twins hitters get better, so will the hitters on the other teams. Let that idea simmer a bit.

[gocgo]

 

Is what the Twins realistically need to go from here on out to have a good "shot" at the playoffs.

Can they do it?

To win a wildcard, yes.  To win the AL Central?  Gaah!  There's some really not good teams in our division this year.  It all depends on Cleveland in my mind.  Chicago is not good.  The Royals?  Not looking so good.  Detroit?  Maybe.  I know we aren't supposed to contend, but if we can feast off the AL Central and then play .500 against the rest, we will play meaningful games in September.

[Joe A. Preusser]

Thanks because I definitely did not know that.

Back to the point. Hitting won't solve a pitching problem. As the Twins hitters get better, so will the hitters on the other teams. Let that idea simmer a bit.

Most of the hitters on most other teams are not in the rapidly rising portion of the learning curve, while many of ours are. Nor do many other teams have so many hitters with such high ceilings. I would bet our hitting improves more than most other teams' hitting improves over 6 months, 1 year, 3 years.

[Dantes929]

I'm not convinced the Twins have a top 5 offense but like our chances if they are.    87 Twins were 10th in runs scored and 14th in runs given up.   I actually like that when our pen gave up runs it was in a game that we were likely going to lose anyway.    Its that kind of thing that makes for a winning record if your total runs scored equals your runs given up.   If we can score just a few more runs than we give up ie top 5 offense vs 20-25 in runs given up then I don't mind relying on luck to get us to 87 wins or so.   Normally I don't like talking this way after just 6 games but I know that the next 7 games can see us going 1-6 so might as well dream about it while we can.    Not that going 1-6 in the next 7 would cause me to give up on the season either.

[Doomtints]

 

Most of the hitters on most other teams are not in the rapidly rising portion of the learning curve

 

True. Most of the players in the league are already past the 'learning curve" and simply need to get loosened up and into a groove. They will be dangerous earlier than the Twins.

[Joe A. Preusser]

To win a wildcard, yes.  To win the AL Central?  Gaah!  There's some really not good teams in our division this year.  It all depends on Cleveland in my mind.  Chicago is not good.  The Royals?  Not looking so good.  Detroit?  Maybe.  I know we aren't supposed to contend, but if we can feast off the AL Central and then play .500 against the rest, we will play meaningful games in September.

Even in my wildest fantasy I don't see us winning the division. 90 win wild card? Possible. But Cleveland could win 100 without breaking a sweat.

[Bark's Lounge]

 

a: not sure how we know anything about the new FO and their style yet.

b: If Chargois is dominating, and the bullpen is about average, you think they'll just cut a guy? I don't know if any of them have options other than Duffey.

c: Agreed, there could be an injury.

d: If they only replace guys thah don't have a role, and guys with a role are "meh" or better, are they going to pitch? Are they going to "demote" a veteran to a lesser role?

 

I just don't know how everyone can keep typing with such certainty:

a: that they have any idea how the new FO will operate

b: that the team can somehow be good, and the bullpen somehow is turned over

Mike, I think people just want to be optimistic and are excited about the 5-1 start, including me. After a nightmare of a season in 2016 I think people are getting their excitement blended in with their wants and desires for this ball club.

 

I can't really disagree with anything you pointed out, but you at least have to admit that the line-up construction is something we haven't seen before and that has to have something to do with the New FO's style/philosophy. I find it refreshing.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Mike, I think people just want to be optimistic and are excited about the 5-1 start, including me. After a nightmare of a season in 2016 I think people are getting their excitement blended in with their wants and desires for this ball club.

 

I can't really disagree with anything you pointed out, but you at least have to admit that the line-up construction is something we haven't seen before and that has to have something to do with the New FO's style/philosophy. I find it refreshing.

 

I'm excited about Sano and Polanco and Castro and Dozier and the defense. I was merely asking how people knew the bullpen would be turned over. No place did I criticize anything, I was merely trying to understand the comment.

[TheLeviathan]

I'm going to need to see this rotation gone through a few times before I have an increase in confidence about the team's chances.

[Bark's Lounge]

 

I'm excited about Sano and Polanco and Castro and Dozier and the defense. I was merely asking how people knew the bullpen would be turned over. No place did I criticize anything, I was merely trying to understand the comment.

And my post wasn't an indictment of you or anything you said. You are tempering your expectations and being realistic, whereas the majority on this thread are super excited about the start and mixing that excitement with their expectations, which in turn could lead to a big let down. To be honest I probably should not have posted, because it was probably pointless.

[Squirrel]

Prognosticating in baseball is just plain difficult. While the start is exciting ... I mean, compared to what we had last year ... we are just 6 games in. I'm reading a lot of 'ifs' in people's comments ... if this, we'll be awesome. If the pitching can keep doing this, wow ... if the hitting keeps progressing ... if the defense keeps it up and improves ...

 

While the first 6 games have been fun, I still don't see this team as a playoff team and I think it would be premature to make any kind of calls on anything. Let's see them play out the month of April, then maybe I'll be on the high five bandwagon. For now, I'm hoping to get through the season with .500 baseball.

 

And I hope I'm off with that guess and it's more, but part of me also wants to hedge my bets with something just short of that.

[Vanimal46]

 

a: not sure how we know anything about the new FO and their style yet.

b: If Chargois is dominating, and the bullpen is about average, you think they'll just cut a guy? I don't know if any of them have options other than Duffey.

c: Agreed, there could be an injury.

d: If they only replace guys thah don't have a role, and guys with a role are "meh" or better, are they going to pitch? Are they going to "demote" a veteran to a lesser role?

 

I just don't know how everyone can keep typing with such certainty:

a: that they have any idea how the new FO will operate

b: that the team can somehow be good, and the bullpen somehow is turned over

 

Molitor could play a factor in selecting new bullpen arms too... Through the first 6 games the trend is Molitor has no faith in Tonkin and won't use him in close ball games. He could very well be the one who's DFA'd. 

[Squirrel]

 

Molitor could play a factor in selecting new bullpen arms too... Through the first 6 games the trend is Molitor has no faith in Tonkin and won't use him in close ball games. He could very well be the one who's DFA'd. 

He also seems to be using him for long relief, too ... I'd rather see him get an opportunity to come in for one inning and see if he shuts them down ... close or otherwise. That's the only way to know for sure if he will amount to something. I'm just not sure moving forward what we are going to see with bp usage ... it's just too soon to be calling anything. Maybe my optimism gene has been used up!

[Bark's Lounge]

If this team can win 75 games and play fundamentally well played baseball with progress being seen in the development of our young players, it will be a winner for me.

 

That means Buxton and Rosario have to do well at the plate-better than last year. If Kep only takes miniature steps forward, I am cool with that. Also, I want to see Berrios and Chargois pitch and pitch somewhat effectively at some point this season at the MLB level.

[Vanimal46]

 

He also seems to be using him for long relief, too ... I'd rather see him get an opportunity to come in for one inning and see if he shuts them down ... close or otherwise. That's the only way to know for sure if he will amount to something. I'm just not sure moving forward what we are going to see with bp usage ... it's just too soon to be calling anything. Maybe my optimism gene has been used up!

 

In theory, yes, we would like for him to get that opportunity to pitch an inning and see if he shuts them down... But, that's where short vs. long term approaches clash. Molitor is looking to win right now on the last year of his contract. I don't blame him for not using someone he doesn't trust when he's also proving he's the right man for the job. 

[Mike Sixel]

 

If this team can win 75 games and play fundamentally well played baseball with progress being seen in the development of our young players, it will be a winner for me.

 

That means Buxton and Rosario have to do well at the plate-better than last year. If Kep only takes miniature steps forward, I am cool with that. Also, I want to see Berrios and Chargois pitch and pitch somewhat effectively at some point this season at the MLB level.

 

Agreed. It's really about the young OF progressing, Sano being Sano, and finding a young pitcher or three (and winning around 75+ games). That would be great progress to me.

 

And health among the minor leagues...

[drjim]

In theory, yes, we would like for him to get that opportunity to pitch an inning and see if he shuts them down... But, that's where short vs. long term approaches clash. Molitor is looking to win right now on the last year of his contract. I don't blame him for not using someone he doesn't trust when he's also proving he's the right man for the job.

He'll get a chance at some point when others falter or the bullpen is used heavily for a stretch, but he's low on the depth chart and rightfully so. It's not even short vs long term, 3 guys ahead of him (Pressly, Duffey, Rogers) are basically the same age.