Phil Miller piece on Mauer's batting order slot

[Brandon Warne]

 

I'd be very interested to see the projected OBP of a situation like that (whether that projection is even possible, I don't know).

 

Nothing for nothing, but last year Mauer had a .383 OBP against righties and Grossman had a .418 mark against lefties.

[Brandon Warne]

Players I could see leading off at some point this year I'd be OK with:

 

Mauer

Polanco

Buxton

Grossman

Kepler

 

Don't really care to see Dozier do it again. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Mauer-Polanco-Sano-Dozier-Kepler-Vargas-Rosario-Castro-Buxton

 

And later, if Buxton is hitting well, slide him up to either the two or three spot and slide everyone else down.  

I'd flip Mauer and Polanco but yeah, after a bit more consideration I think Dozier should hit behind Sano.

 

I don't want Mauer holding up Jorge on the basepaths so I'd put him before Joe. It's almost impossible for anyone to get in Sano's way so that's not an issue.

[DJSim22]

I'd like to see Mauer and Grossman bat 2nd.  I personally still prefer a speed guy at the top.  Polanco seems to me like the guy who currently makes the most sense, assuming he's playing everyday.

 

There are a lot of different line up theories. I've been around coaches who like batting their top guy 2nd, figuring over the season he'll get more plate appearances than 3rd or 4th.  I've been around other coaches who like have their "lead off" guys bat 1st, 5th, and 9th.  #2 hitters 2nd and 6th, #3 hitters 3rd and 7th, clean up hitters 4th and 8th.  This theory of course is going off the assumption your 3 and 4 hitters are knocking in everyone leading the bases empty for you 5th and 9th hitters. I've coached with one coach who always wants his worst hitter hitting 8th instead of 9th because he believes this helps get more guys on base for the top of the order which is filled with OBP guys and gives him a better chance to get the bases loaded for his top hitters batting 3rd and 4th. 

 

 

[Oldgoat_MN]

 

Nothing for nothing, but last year Mauer had a .383 OBP against righties and Grossman had a .418 mark against lefties.

 

I completely see your reasoning, but I agree with Brock above where he mentions having Mauer or Grossman 'holding back' a speedster on the basepaths. It hurt seeing Buxton lose out on a triple last year because Vargas couldn't get to home plate from first on the hit.

 

Mauer has excellent instincts on the basepaths, but I don't like him in front of anyone who can really tear around the bases. 

[Brandon Warne]

 

I completely see your reasoning, but I agree with Brock above where he mentions having Mauer or Grossman 'holding back' a speedster on the basepaths. It hurt seeing Buxton lose out on a triple last year because Vargas couldn't get to home plate from first on the hit.

 

Mauer has excellent instincts on the basepaths, but I don't like him in front of anyone who can really tear around the bases. 

 

Buxton would probably hit ninth in this scenario.

[Dantes929]

 

If everything unfolds how I hope it does, this is my lineup in June:

 

1. Buxton

2. Polanco

3. Kepler

4. Dozier/Sano

5. Dozier/Sano

6. Mauer (lefty bat, should be lower based on performance but I hate bunching lefties together)

7. Vargas

8. Rosario

9. Castro

If everything unfolds like I hope it does Mauer is batting over .300 with a .400 OBP.    #6 would still be ok because I think the league still respects Mauer enough that if he is hitting pretty well they will be more likely to throw strikes to Sano and Dozier.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

If everything unfolds like I hope it does Mauer is batting over .300 with a .400 OBP.    #6 would still be ok because I think the league still respects Mauer enough that if he is hitting pretty well they will be more likely to throw strikes to Sano and Dozier.

If Mauer has a .300 average, he can stay in the two or three slot.

 

I don't think that will ever happen again, though. When I said "things unfold how I hope", I was reasonably predicting things somewhat likely to happen.

[Dantes929]

 

If Mauer has a .300 average, he can stay in the two or three slot.

 

I don't think that will ever happen again, though. When I said "things unfold how I hope", I was reasonably predicting things somewhat likely to happen.

I guess I think the odds of Mauer having one of the top two OBP is still pretty high.   Hoping another year removed from concussion trumps another year older.    If there is more regression then it probably should be Park and Vargas rather than Mauer Vargas, anyway.  

[Mike Sixel]

Only 7 qualified hitters in MLB had a .400+ OBP last year. Two of those did not hit .300.

 

I think it unlikely Mauer joins that club ever again.

 

Frankly, in looking at the list, why the heck did Ortiz retire? Dude was one of the best players in all of baseball last year, even as a DH only.

[ThejacKmp]

Vs. Righties (75% of starters):

 

CF Buxton R

1B Mauer L

2B Dozier R

3B Sano R

DH Vargas S

RF Kepler L

SS Polanco S

LF Rosario L

C Castro L (could switch Rosario and Castro if you want speed in the #9 hole.)

 

Vs. Lefties (25% of starters)

CF Buxton R

LF Grossman S

2B Dozier R

DH Sano R

1B Vargas S

3B Polanco S

RF Kepler/Rosario L

C JRM R

SS Escobar S

 

NOTES:

1.) Grossman may seem weird in the #2 hole but he's the RH version of Joe with that high OBP. The guys behind him aren't speed demons so being slow won't hurt him.

2.) I like that the lineup vs. lefties gets Polanco out of SS and Sano to DH - the defensive loss of having Grossman in left is helped by getting a more adept left side of the infield.

3.) Escobar has hit much better from the right side than the left so getting him out there against lefties should make him more potent. Lots of doubles.

4.) Both of those lineups seem pretty dangerous 1-9. Never a Twins-batting half inning you can run to the store for more beer. 

[ThejacKmp]

 

Frankly, in looking at the list, why the heck did Ortiz retire? Dude was one of the best players in all of baseball last year, even as a DH only.

Injuries. He was in a lot of pain throughout the year. That's a big body to be dragging around for 15+ years, even if it's just to DH and run the bases.

[ThejacKmp]

 

If Mauer has a .300 average, he can stay in the two or three slot.

 

I don't think that will ever happen again, though. When I said "things unfold how I hope", I was reasonably predicting things somewhat likely to happen.

 

 

Mauer still had the second best OBP on the team (after Grossman). And that's with a low BABIP. In the #2 hole, I think you're looking for OBP to put guys on for Dozier/Sano. If Buxton performs well, Mauer should have some distracted pitchers behind in the count. Could be dangerous. (Also, if Buxton is looking to steal, nice to have a guy who looks at a ton of pitches hitting behind him).

[jharaldson]

This is going to be pretty interesting on opening day.  We are starting the season against the Royals and I would bet that their LHP Danny Duffy gets the start.  Will Molitor make a strong statement and bench Mauer or lower him in the batting order against a tough lefty?  Or will he show that his personal feelings and respect for Mauer will override the need to make sound baseball decisions and he will put him in the 2 or 3 spot in the order?  

[Mike Sixel]

 

Injuries. He was in a lot of pain throughout the year. That's a big body to be dragging around for 15+ years, even if it's just to DH and run the bases.

 

thanks,

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Mauer still had the second best OBP on the team (after Grossman). And that's with a low BABIP. In the #2 hole, I think you're looking for OBP to put guys on for Dozier/Sano. If Buxton performs well, Mauer should have some distracted pitchers behind in the count. Could be dangerous. (Also, if Buxton is looking to steal, nice to have a guy who looks at a ton of pitches hitting behind him).

It might work that way, I simply don't have much faith in Mauer at this point. It's likely he'll still be a decent OBP guy but will he be better than Buxton and Polanco? It wouldn't surprise me if Polanco has one of the best OBP on the team this season. Buxton is more iffy, though. He needs to stop missing the ball to get that OBP where it needs to be.

 

To start the season, I put Polanco in front of Mauer so Joe doesn't get in Jorge's way on the basepaths. If Buxton comes to life and posts an OBP .320 or higher, then it's likely I shuffle the lineup to include Jorge and Byron leading things off (in what order, I'm not sure, maybe Polanco is the best leadoff option no matter what).

 

The more I think about it, the more I'm starting to think Polanco is the best leadoff option for the foreseeable future. He doesn't have Byron's speed but he's fast enough and has little to no power. If Polanco turns into Denard Span, he's a natural leadoff guy (and that's probably Polanco's ceiling as a hitter). Buxton has more power so maybe he's a better fit for the second spot in the lineup.

[ThejacKmp]

 

It might work that way, I simply don't have much faith in Mauer at this point. It's likely he'll still be a decent OBP guy but will he be better than Buxton and Polanco? It wouldn't surprise me if Polanco has one of the best OBP on the team this season. Buxton is more iffy, though. He needs to stop missing the ball to get that OBP where it needs to be.

 

To start the season, I put Polanco in front of Mauer so Joe doesn't get in Jorge's way on the basepaths. If Buxton comes to life and posts an OBP .320 or higher, then it's likely I shuffle the lineup to include Jorge and Byron leading things off (in what order, I'm not sure, maybe Polanco is the best leadoff option no matter what).

 

The more I think about it, the more I'm starting to think Polanco is the best leadoff option for the foreseeable future. He doesn't have Byron's speed but he's fast enough and has little to no power. If Polanco turns into Denard Span, he's a natural leadoff guy (and that's probably Polanco's ceiling as a hitter). Buxton has more power so maybe he's a better fit for the second spot in the lineup.

 

I don't get why you'd put Polanco or Buxton in the #2 hole instead of Mauer. Assuming that the goal of the #2 is to get on base before Dozier and Sano, Mauer/Grossman is clearly the best choice with the highest OBPs on the team (and a track record by Mauer of doing this very thing). Polanco may someday turn into an OBP machine but he's not particularly close to Mauer or Grossman at this point in time.

 

Putting Polanco or Buxton in the #2 hole also negates their speed. You're not going to run a lot with Dozier or Sano at the plate. In the #1 hole, they will - Mauer takes a lot of pitches and you're not worried about teams walking him to fill first because Dozier/Sano are on deck. But in the #2 you lose that.

 

I don't much care if Buxton or Polanco hits #1. I guess I like trusting Buxton but can see the other side. But I'm much more inclined to bat the other one in the lower part of the lineup (#6 to #9) where they can do some fun things on the base paths. If Polanco leads off, I'd put Buxton #9 and if Buxton leads off I'd put Polanco #6 or #7.

[ThejacKmp]

 

This is going to be pretty interesting on opening day.  We are starting the season against the Royals and I would bet that their LHP Danny Duffy gets the start.  Will Molitor make a strong statement and bench Mauer or lower him in the batting order against a tough lefty?  Or will he show that his personal feelings and respect for Mauer will override the need to make sound baseball decisions and he will put him in the 2 or 3 spot in the order?  

 

That is nuts. Well done.

 

I guess I won't care if the Twins (it'll be FO and not just Molitor) start Mauer in the #2 hole on opening day against a LH pitcher. I get that sometimes stats are trumped by personal things and business things. Opening day is a big day for casual fans and not having Mauer out there in his "normal spot" likely hurts excitement. It also ensures a big narrative from Day 1 about Mauer being benched that you can just avoid by having him play. Since it'll be an adjustment for him, why make him have to answer questions opening day? That seems like the wrong way to handle a veteran who has meant a lot to the organization.

 

But after Opening Day, I want Mauer sitting against most/all lefty starters.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't get why you'd put Polanco or Buxton in the #2 hole instead of Mauer. Assuming that the goal of the #2 is to get on base before Dozier and Sano, Mauer/Grossman is clearly the best choice with the highest OBPs on the team (and a track record by Mauer of doing this very thing). Polanco may someday turn into an OBP machine but he's not particularly close to Mauer or Grossman at this point in time.

 

Putting Polanco or Buxton in the #2 hole also negates their speed. You're not going to run a lot with Dozier or Sano at the plate. In the #1 hole, they will - Mauer takes a lot of pitches and you're not worried about teams walking him to fill first because Dozier/Sano are on deck. But in the #2 you lose that.

 

I don't much care if Buxton or Polanco hits #1. I guess I like trusting Buxton but can see the other side. But I'm much more inclined to bat the other one in the lower part of the lineup (#6 to #9) where they can do some fun things on the base paths. If Polanco leads off, I'd put Buxton #9 and if Buxton leads off I'd put Polanco #6 or #7.

I'd consider putting Buxton and Polanco at the top of the lineup because it's possible they're more effective hitters this season.

 

OBP is great but it's not the only thing to consider at the top of the lineup. The more effective a hitter is overall, the more plate appearances they should receive over the course of a season. If Buxton has an acceptable OBP (but lower than Mauer) but is hitting doubles, triples, and homers at a pace greatly exceeding Joe's performance, then he gets the nod at the top of the lineup.

 

I consider a lack of OBP a disqualifier to hit at the top of the lineup but I don't assemble lineups based solely on OBP. I'd rather lose .030 OBP with Buxton and gain .060 slugging in the process, hoping Byron will either drive in Polanco or get into scoring position for Sano.

 

Then there's the baserunning component. I don't care about stolen bases that much, as the data is pretty wishy-washy on how effective they are at winning games. What's important to me is that Joe essentially needs to be on second to score a run and Joe no longer hits doubles. Buxton can easily score from second, sometimes from first, and has the ability to put himself into scoring position if need be (never mind that if he's hitting more doubles, is more likely to be there in the first place).

[DocBauer]

It might work that way, I simply don't have much faith in Mauer at this point. It's likely he'll still be a decent OBP guy but will he be better than Buxton and Polanco? It wouldn't surprise me if Polanco has one of the best OBP on the team this season. Buxton is more iffy, though. He needs to stop missing the ball to get that OBP where it needs to be.

 

To start the season, I put Polanco in front of Mauer so Joe doesn't get in Jorge's way on the basepaths. If Buxton comes to life and posts an OBP .320 or higher, then it's likely I shuffle the lineup to include Jorge and Byron leading things off (in what order, I'm not sure, maybe Polanco is the best leadoff option no matter what).

 

The more I think about it, the more I'm starting to think Polanco is the best leadoff option for the foreseeable future. He doesn't have Byron's speed but he's fast enough and has little to no power. If Polanco turns into Denard Span, he's a natural leadoff guy (and that's probably Polanco's ceiling as a hitter). Buxton has more power so maybe he's a better fit for the second spot in the lineup.

I think we're in general accord on this. I really feel, ultimately, some combination of Polanco and Buxton at the top of the order makes the most sense. Is that a lot of pressure on those two young guys? Yes it is. And they both have to be comfortable and continue to learn and grow. But the overall combination of hitting/OB/speed and pop is exciting. Buxton is used to hitting leadoff in the minors, and Polanco has done a lot of it, as well as experience in the world and 3 spots. (Polanco's recent milb seasons has him hitting at one of the top 2 spots before sliding down to 3 as one of his team's best overall hitters).

 

I'm not certain which order works best: Buxton-Polanco or Polanco-Buxton. And I think arguements can be made for each version. I can still see Mauer/Grossman begining the season in the 2 spot until things shake out. But my gut feeling is the Mauer/Grossman spot would be best in the 6 or 7 spot, providing hitting and OB with, hopefully, some doubles power at least. (At this point Grossman seems to have a substantial power advantage). They would provide contact and OB ability behind the middle of the lineup, and opportunity for the bottom of the order to have runners OB.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I'm not certain which order works best: Buxton-Polanco or Polanco-Buxton. And I think arguements can be made for each version.

To me, it boils down to OBP. If Polanco has the same OBP as Buxton (or higher), you put him in the leadoff spot.

 

Buxton had a .090 slugging advantage in the minors. If the goal is to drive in runs, I think you put the slugging guy behind what will likely be an "OBP only" guy. And Jorge is fast enough to not clog the bases for Byron should they both get on base.

 

But really, the concept is murky enough that I won't get too upset about it either way. As long as the Twins stack most/all of their slugging/OBP guys at the top of the lineup, the order isn't going to bother me too much. Whether Sano hits in front of Dozier or vice versa is pretty nit-picky to me... I only get upset when we see Dozier, the best slugger on the team, leading off games and hitting solo moonshots all season.

 

Because that's... Well, it's just dumb.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I'd consider putting Buxton and Polanco at the top of the lineup because it's possible they're more effective hitters this season.

Possible, yes.  But probable, at this point?  Particularly vs RHP?  (Seems we're all in agreement about sitting Mauer vs LHP)

 

For what it's worth, ZiPS and especially Steamer both project an overall hitting advantage for Mauer over Polanco.  Perhaps that could be magnified by platooning too.

[DocBauer]

To me, it boils down to OBP. If Polanco has the same OBP as Buxton (or higher), you put him in the leadoff spot.

 

Buxton had a .090 slugging advantage in the minors. If the goal is to drive in runs, I think you put the slugging guy behind what will likely be an "OBP only" guy. And Jorge is fast enough to not clog the bases for Byron should they both get on base.

 

But really, the concept is murky enough that I won't get too upset about it either way. As long as the Twins stack most/all of their slugging/OBP guys at the top of the lineup, the order isn't going to bother me too much. Whether Sano hits in front of Dozier or vice versa is pretty nit-picky to me... I only get upset when we see Dozier, the best slugger on the team, leading off games and hitting solo moonshots all season.

 

Because that's... Well, it's just dumb.

Again, agreed.

 

I like Buxton's power and speed ahead of solid bat control from Polanco, but also like the better power of Buxton behind Polanco. Either works and could be exciting. I still have the feeling that, eventuallyou, Kepler may turn out to be the team'should best #3 hitter, but that's asking a lot of these 3 young guys so soon. But wouldn't it be amazing to see some combination of Dozier/Sano hitting 4 and 5 with Park/Vargas in the 6 spot?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Possible, yes.  But probable, at this point?  Particularly vs RHP?  (Seems we're all in agreement about sitting Mauer vs LHP)

 

For what it's worth, ZiPS and especially Steamer both project an overall hitting advantage for Mauer over Polanco.  Perhaps that could be magnified by platooning too.

To be clear, I'd start the season with Polanco first, Mauer second, and Buxton ninth to ease any pressure he might feel. The Polanco/Buxton conversation is what I'd like to see in June but certainly not April.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

Yeah, but they also wear the same filthy shirt under their jersey, eat chickens on game day, and hop over chalk lines.

 

I do believe they sacrifice to Jobu as well.

[Loosey]

Buxton

Mauer

Dozier

Sano

Park/Vargas

Castro

Rosario

Kepler

Polanco

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

Buxton

Mauer

Dozier

Sano

Park/Vargas

Castro

Rosario

Kepler

Polanco

I'd like to see your analysis on this... Castro is one of the team's worst hitters, and you have him at 6th?

 

I would do this:

 

Polanco

Mauer

Dozier

Sano

Park

Kepler

Rosario

Castro

Buxton

 

I think Polanco can hit leadoff; Mauer is best OBP guy (could sub Grossman vs. lefties). Dozier and Sano take advantage of their natural abilities. Park (I think Vargas will be in AAA) gives some protection to Sano, and kepler does the same for Park. Rosario and Castro are the two worst hitters, followed by Buxton, who, if he can get on base, would give more RBIs to the top-of-the-order guys.