Worth more in a trade: pitcher or hitter?

[cmoss84]

Dozier has 2 years left on a cheap contract (15 million total). Quintana seems to be the Dozier equivalent of pitchers-as he has 2 years left at around 16 million. The big difference is Quintana has 2 additional option years on the cheap as well. 

 

If he didn't have those option years, who would fetch more in a trade? I understand every team has different team needs-I am asking this question in a general sense. 

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm going to go with "it depends" because I'm lazy  and don't want to look it up

 

Generally, I'd say that premium value goes in the following order:

 

SP

SS/C

2B/CF

LF/RF

1B/3B/DH

 

The kicker is figuring into where to slot RP value... which a few years ago was much lower than it is right now.  Obviously, though, things like ceiling come into play.  Dozier has a high ceiling as a 2B, and he is cheap. That gives him a ton of value that a lower ceiling 2B would not have.  Same with pitching.  A league average starting pitcher (roughly a 4.3 ERA and 180 innings) would have value, but probably not as much as Dozier.

[Loosey]

One way to look at it could be this:

 

If they were both Free Agents today, who would get more money?  I would guess the Quintana.

 

However, when you look at it from a trading prospects perspective it might change and depend on the team.  Using the Dodgers for Example.  I think they would give up more for Dozier than Quintana due to the fact they have Urias, De Leon, Stewart, Alvarez as prospects who could be just as good if not better than Quintana.  So they may not give them up.  Dozier though is not a pitcher and as I just mentioned, they have depth to trade from.

[bluechipper]

The established pitcher with no injury history would get more in a trade is my guess.

[DodgerFan1234]

 

I'm going to go with "it depends" because I'm lazy  and don't want to look it up

 

Generally, I'd say that premium value goes in the following order:

 

SP

SS/C

2B/CF

LF/RF

1B/3B/DH

 

The kicker is figuring into where to slot RP value... which a few years ago was much lower than it is right now.  Obviously, though, things like ceiling come into play.  Dozier has a high ceiling as a 2B, and he is cheap. That gives him a ton of value that a lower ceiling 2B would not have.  Same with pitching.  A league average starting pitcher (roughly a 4.3 ERA and 180 innings) would have value, but probably not as much as Dozier.

So,  SP.  Then up the middle.  Then everybody else.

[amjgt]

I say starting pitchers and here's how I justify it....

 

Back when Joey Slaps was winning batting titles and playing catcher, he was a perennial high fantasy baseball draft pick. His offensive numbers weren't as good as some 1B out there, but getting what Joe provided from the Catcher spot had huge value.

 

The value was in the scarcity of good options.

 

Same thing with starting pitching in MLB. 1.0 WAR 2B are a dime a dozen, but not so with SP.

 

If instead of looking at WAR you look at WAR/game. it becomes obvious why quality SP are more valuable than most position players.

[Eris]

I think that currently the answer would be pitcher although several decades ago it would have been a position player.  Currently, 6 of the top 10 and 9 of the top 20 highest paid MLB players are pitchers.  I am making an assumption that these salaries reflect relative demand.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/mlb/salaries/

 

In 1995, only 1 of the top 10 and, 3 of the top 20 highest paid MLB players were pitchers.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/mlb/salaries/1995/player/all/

 

 My own personal view is that I would not trade a top tier position player for an equivalent pitcher primarily because the risk of injuries to the pitcher is so much higher.

 

Another example of the current value of pitching is what the Cubs and the Indians gave up for Chapman and Miller.  

 

[TheLeviathan]

Depends on WAY too many things to say.  All things being equal, probably a pitcher.

[Brandon Warne]

Don't forget about Quintana's team options.

 

His trade value is many, many times higher than Brian Dozier's right now.

[The Wise One]

First off Donaldson>Sale>Quintana>Dozier.  Josh Donaldson was traded with 4 years of control left. Did the A's make out better than the White Sox? time will tell. Erwin (for Larwie) and Baretto versus Kopech and Moncada.  

[Platoon]

Definitely a pitcher. I realize the risk is higher for injury. But a good pitcher greatly increases your chances to win games, especially in the playoffs, vs for example a good second baseman. To me whether a specific player is worth more or not is not the issue. It's whether the specific player, or position increases your odds of winning. That's all you can assess it by. The odds. And until someone changes the rules in baseball, pitching always increases the odds over position players.

[Thrylos]

Years of team control and projected $ for those years are really important, so you got to compare apples with apples.  

 

Quintana has 2/$18 +2 and the options are $10.5 + $11.5M, so 4 years of team control, including his age 31 season for decent $, plus a way out if there are health issues

Doziers has only half of that with no options, so 2 years of control for $14M

 

Just this makes Quintana more valuable.

 

Positional value is a supply and demand situation

SPs are in general more valuable than position players because each team has 5 openings (at least) There were only 40 SPs with fWAR of 3 or higher.  So this is a high demand low supply position, where only 40/150 (27%) of the spots at that level

 

There were 14 2B with fWAR of 3 or higher on the other hand so 14/30 (47%) of those spots were there.

 

If you look at other positions that way you have (% of MLB spots at fWAR >=3) 

 

C - 5/30 - 17%

1B  10/30 - 33%

2B - 47%

3B 13/30 - 43%

SS 10/30 - 33%

OF 26/90 - 29%

(btw CF 15/30 - 50%)

 

SP - 27%

 

Then you have the possibility of converting positions.  C is the hardest to convert from another position, then SS, then CF, then 3B and the rest are pretty much a wash.  DH is the easiest to convert thus not mentioned.  

 

Relievers are an interesting thing because average starters can make exceptional relievers and you use lots of them in a game.  (FWIW there was only 1 MLB reliever in 2016 with fWAR >=3 but that is not a good metric for the position)

 

And what trumps all is individual team need, but most teams will need a catcher.  

 

So... it's complicated.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

So,  SP.  Then up the middle.  Then everybody else.

 

Yeah, that's fine. I was trying to be a bit more granular. I'd agree there's a pretty big gap between the up the middle positions and everyone else, with decent gap at SP too. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

trying to predict markets without clearly defined buyer, seller, or currency/credit is difficult or next to impossible.

 

Last offseason I would have said pitcher because of the recent trends in runs scored in the game, however the 2016 season produced the highest homerun totals in quite some time. In terms of value to the outcome of the season and scarcity of talent, I would put Dozier's unique combination of fielding well, power, and durability as potentially more valuable over a mid-rotation starting pitcher with two years left on a similar valued contract...

 

That being said, a market requires a buyer and a seller and currency/credit, but we're looking for two markets.  One of the sellers is kind of defined, but not real clear. The rest is very murky.

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0&t=41s

 

 

[nicksaviking]

All things being equal, that being years of control, I'd guess it's the pitcher. Everyone needs a pitcher, as we are finding out with the Dozier situation, not nearly enough teams need a 2B.