Article: All About Jose De Leon

[specialiststeve]

I am very impressed with the new management as they are dealing with the Dozier situation as they should. The Twin's NEED to get a haul from the Dodgers or whoever or don't move him! With what the Whitesox got in their deals the Twin's need to get a lot more than just De Leon. He is a very nice piece but FAR from a sure thing. I would not settle for anything less than Deleon, Alvarez and Puig. As expected Bellinger is the other key piece the Twin's want as he can be plugged in - in left and has a bigger upside than Deleon. Like any dealing you have to be willing to walk away to get what you want. If not we still have Dozier who is a star. Don't settle!!

[caninatl04]

 

De Leon would be a great get, and would be a staple in the Twins rotation for years to come.

Brock Stewart is another name that is being mentioned. I've seen up and down reports on him, down mostly because some scouting reports peg him as a #4. What do people think of him as a prospect?

Although it would be fun to have Will Smith, the actor, hanging around Target field, Will Smith, the catcher might be a better piece.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

De Leon would be a great get, and would be a staple in the Twins rotation for years to come.

Brock Stewart is another name that is being mentioned. I've seen up and down reports on him, down mostly because some scouting reports peg him as a #4. What do people think of him as a prospect?

He has been a strikeout machine in the minors.  I think people are down on him due to the #4 projection he initially got.  So far, he's exceeded expectations, and I have to think the 4/5 comparisons are a bit unfair at the moment.  I've noted elsewhere that I'd be fine with him as a 3rd piece to De Leon and Alvarez.  He's a safer prospect with some nice upside at this point.

[JustinCB]

Another Fangraphs post from Dave Cameron in support of De Leon.  I didn't realize Steamer projected his FIP this year to be in the Chris Sale, Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, and Chris Archer range, although that's almost entirely based on his minor league numbers.  I still think they need to get at least one other top 100 prospect, but this would disappoint me if they ultimately end up passing on him.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-twins-should-take-jose-de-leon-while-they-can/

[Eris]

 

Deolis Guerra.  Seems like he had a helluva change up too.  Not comparing him to De Leon, exactly.  But when you look at those Fangraphs, um, graphs of future value, and you see that one that says 30% chance of being a 1-5 WAR player, just look at Guerra's career to see what that might look like.

 

I think a better comparison would be Johan Santana.  He was an elite pitcher when his fastball was near 95.  As his velocity dropped, so did his K%.  He was still effective, but no longer elite.  De Leon's fastball (~ 92) is probably at the lower end of the effectiveness spectrum. 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=755&position=P#advanced

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=755&position=P&pitch=FA

http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2010/06/santana_must_made_adjustments.html

 

Edited December 22, 2016 by Eris

[King]

 

Seems very similar to Berrios's MLB start with the Twins.  With the exception of a great 1st game  

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

I don't give much credence to 1st year pitching stats.  Far different class of hitters.

Now, if same pitchers are really really good, I credence ALL DAY LONG!!

 

I read a while ago about minor league pitchers with good stuff who can put up low walk numbers in part due to pounding the strike zone and overmatching minor league hitters, but they struggle once they get to the MLB in part due to lack of command that just wasn't necessary in the minor leagues. I think Berrios and De Leon both fall into this category. 

[King]

 

He has been a strikeout machine in the minors.  I think people are down on him due to the #4 projection he initially got.  So far, he's exceeded expectations, and I have to think the 4/5 comparisons are a bit unfair at the moment.  I've noted elsewhere that I'd be fine with him as a 3rd piece to De Leon and Alvarez.  He's a safer prospect with some nice upside at this point.

 

If De Leon, Alvarez, Stewart were all on the table the deal would be complete by now.

[specialiststeve]

Update here on stalling Dozier trade talks from Jon Heyman: http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/heyman-dodgers-twins-standstill-dozier-trade-talks/

 

Sounds like the two sides are agreed on De Leon as the main piece, but reaching an impasse on the rest of the package. Twins pushing for Alvarez or Buehler and getting rebuked (unsurprisingly).

 

Hopefully the deal doesn't fall apart because disagreement over the secondary pieces.

Bellinger is the issue. We want him and they don't want to give him up. We need to be patient as Dozier for de Leon as the main piece is just not enough. We need at least 3 high end prospects as "maybe" one of the 3 actually are good... not even great. At this point Dozier IS great and relatively cheap. No "need" to move him unless we get a GREAT deal.

[jimmer]

I hope everyone who is advocating keeping Dozier if the Dodgers don't overspend for him won't be the same people who complain when we get less for him next offseason or nothing for him when he leaves after two seasons.  

 

Two years of Dozier, even at the salary he will be getting, isn't worth 3 top Dodgers prospects.  Dodgers shouldn't give up De Leon and Bellinger for him and I highly doubt they will.

Edited December 23, 2016 by jimmer

[Linus]

I hope everyone who is advocating keeping Dozier if the Dodgers don't overspend for him won't be the same people who complain when we get less for him next offseason or nothing for him when he leaves after two seasons.

 

Two years of Dozier, even at the salary he will be getting, isn't worth 3 top Dodgers prospects. Dodgers shouldn't give up De Leon and Bellinger for him and I highly doubt they will.

This. Dozier is a nice player but people are vastly over estimating the value of two years of him is

[Thrylos]

 

Update here on stalling Dozier trade talks from Jon Heyman: http://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/heyman-dodgers-twins-standstill-dozier-trade-talks/

 

Sounds like the two sides are agreed on De Leon as the main piece, but reaching an impasse on the rest of the package. Twins pushing for Alvarez or Buehler and getting rebuked (unsurprisingly).

 

Hopefully the deal doesn't fall apart because disagreement over the secondary pieces. 

 

Not sure that Alvarez or Buehler would be the secondary piece in a trade that involved DeLeon

 

At this point, I totally agree, they have to do it. 

 

If Dozier is a Twin opening day 2017 (same about Ervin Santana, btw) it would not be a good omen for the new FO...

[tobi0040]

Yeah. This is the Mets deal with Johan. The press reported the deal and we waited and hoped we could find a better deal. Then the same deal went through

 

We have to trade Dozier and the Dodgers know it. To those who say wait to the deadline, a quarter of his time would be gone and if he struggles his value erodes by a ton. If he is at .240 and 8 HR at the deadline we aren't getting DeLeon.

[Lefty74]

Yeah. This is the Mets deal with Johan. The press reported the deal and we waited and hoped we could find a better deal. Then the same deal went through

We have to trade Dozier and the Dodgers know it. To those who say wait to the deadline, a quarter of his time would be gone and if he struggles his value erodes by a ton. If he is at .240 and 8 HR at the deadline we aren't getting DeLeon.

 

The big "if" is the assumption DeLeon is having a lot of MLB success with the Dodgers. Reading all the fangraphs articles and seeing DeLeon's MLB pitching line to date he is no sure thing. He may be a star and he may be something less. Dozier is a proven star, controllable for 2 years and based upon track record is more likely to success than DeLeon in 2017. The Twins deserve multiple solid prospects for Dozier, not just DeLeon.

[Doomtints]

 

I liked De Leon as a prospect in the minors but there are definite concerns here. I didn't like how he looked in his 4 MLB starts. His fastball looked fringy sitting 89-92 and he had poor command of it missing his spots. Hitters laid off of his changeup after his first start vs SD and sat fastball which was rather hittable. And then the shoulder issues are a problem as well (a rather large one)>

 

Johan Santana's fastball sat at just under 92 but he had the capability to toss it at 95 when he needed to.  He also had a ridiculous low-80s changeup to go with his fastball.

 

De Leon showed the same stuff in his limited number of starts.  The problem is De Leon lived on his fastball during his so-far-short MLB career.  If De Leon lets someone else call the pitches he will be fine. 

 

As for De Leon missing spots, heat maps show he was throwing strikes.  But, if you toss the same 91-92 MPH fastball to the same spots in the strike zone for every pitch, you're going to get burned.

 

De Leon definitely does not have the control issues we have seen with nearly every rookie Twins pitcher since 2011.  His velocity is also not a problem. 

 

I imagine your argument is exactly the argument the Twins make when trying to negotiate with the Dodgers.  I doubt the Dodgers are buying it. 

Edited December 26, 2016 by Doomtints

[King]

 

Johan Santana's fastball sat at just under 92 but he had the capability to toss it at 95 when he needed to.  He also had a ridiculous low-80s changeup to go with his fastball.

 

De Leon showed the same stuff in his limited number of starts.  The problem is De Leon lived on his fastball during his so-far-short MLB career.  If De Leon lets someone else call the pitches he will be fine. 

 

As for De Leon missing spots, heat maps show he was throwing strikes.  But, if you toss the same 91-92 MPH fastball to the same spots in the strike zone for every pitch, you're going to get burned.

 

De Leon definitely does not have the control issues we have seen with nearly every rookie Twins pitcher since 2011.  His velocity is also not a problem. 

 

I imagine your argument is exactly the argument the Twins make when trying to negotiate with the Dodgers.  I doubt the Dodgers are buying it. 

 

I was just talking about how he did in his 1st four MLB starts (not very good). Those starts happened, so they do matter. I like De Leon as a prospect and would be happy with him as part of the return for Dozier. For the most part - your points are talking about different things than I stated, so I'm just going to leave it at that. 

 

You're right he threw an absurd amount of fastballs. His 66.1 FB% would have been top 10 in the MLB over the course of a full season. In his 2 non Padres starts, he struggled to get swinging strikes (3.1% vs NYY and 7.2% against ARI).

 

Edited December 27, 2016 by King