Dozier Trade Discussion Thread

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not ANY two top 75 prospects; I would want starting pitchers in return for him. That's what the Twins need now. And I wouldn't take any SP that haven't at least pitched in AA ball. Even no. 1 draft picks sometimes flame out in A ball. That's why I'm not keen on Alvarez.

 

It needs to be the right two top 75 prospects...

 

so, um, who has the two you are looking for? I'm assuming the dodgers don't, given your criteria.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Exactly. Restovich was a top 20 but everyone knew he couldn't hit anything besides a fastball. Hell, Matt Moses was top 70 and I'm not sure he ever did anything in the minors. Prospects bust all the time. You can't just blindly look at a list and be like okay that works. You have to examine the player itself. If you look at Calhoun and think that's a for sure top 70 in minor leagues I would think you have lost your mind.

 

Really? How did you know those guys couldn't hit, and how do you know Calhoun is going to bust? I'm genuinely curious, because I have no idea how good Calhoun will be or not.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

And I'm not ready to sacrifice the entire 2017 and 2018 seasons just to get better in 2019 and beyond. Why? Because if you just take the high value prospects who haven't reached AA ball yet, it's really hard to judge if they'll ever make it. We need a quality return for Dozier, including IMHO at least two MLB-ready or near-ready SP, plus one or two prospects (A-ball types). De Leon and Stewart fit the first part of that bill. Now what are the one or two other pieces?

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

so, um, who has the two you are looking for? I'm assuming the dodgers don't, given your criteria.

See latest post - I think we were both typing.

 

[gunnarthor]

 

And what is good or bad, to you? Two top 75 prospects enough? If not, what is?

 

They aren't about more than 1-5% likely to be good with him next year......trading your best (older) players is how you get better, faster, over the long run, when you are a 100+ loss team...

Next year, the Twins will start the season with five former top 100 prospects - all currently 24 or younger - starting among the 8 position player spots.  We have two former top 100 pitching prospects - also 24 and younger - arguably starting in our rotation.  We have four more top 100 prospects in the minors and the 1st, 35th and 37th pick in the June draft.  The Twins don't need more prospects.  They need pitching help.  If the FO doesn't think the offer for Dozier isn't worth it, they shouldn't do it.

[darin617]

 

The difference is the Nats really were in on acquiring Sale, according to multiple baseball sites... The Cardinals rumor was a false report from the Twins with no substance behind it. 

If the Cards were/are in on a Dozier deal of course they would deny it. Why would they want to start a possible bidding war. There is nothing saying that the Cards don't come to the Twins and put a nice in front of the Twins and say this is the offer, 5 minutes to accept or we walk away so the Twins can't try to get a counter offer from the Dodgers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Next year, the Twins will start the season with five former top 100 prospects - all currently 24 or younger - starting among the 8 position player spots. We have two former top 100 pitching prospects - also 24 and younger - arguably starting in our rotation. We have four more top 100 prospects in the minors and the 1st, 35th and 37th pick in the June draft. The Twins don't need more prospects. They need pitching help. If the FO doesn't think the offer for Dozier isn't worth it, they shouldn't do it.

Interesting that some posters would resist trading Dozier now because prospects, even top 100 ones, are far from sure things. And then to further support the idea of keeping Dozier, they say we can compete in 2017-2018... based on the number of former top 100 prospects we have.

 

Not saying that's your argument, I just thought it was an interesting juxtaposition within a few posts there!

[crapforks]

Next year, the Twins will start the season with five former top 100 prospects - all currently 24 or younger - starting among the 8 position player spots. We have two former top 100 pitching prospects - also 24 and younger - arguably starting in our rotation. We have four more top 100 prospects in the minors and the 1st, 35th and 37th pick in the June draft. The Twins don't need more prospects. They need pitching help. If the FO doesn't think the offer for Dozier isn't worth it, they shouldn't do it.

This! The Twins are nearing the latter stage of their rebuild. They have some pieces in place. Alvarez is a couple few years off and that's why he's a secondary piece. Santana followed by a bunch of #4s and #5s would be significantly better than what the team put out last year. If Gibson, Hughes, Berrios, and hypothetically, DeLeon and Stewart pitch like true MLB #4s, this team would be significantly improved. Improved enough to offset the loss of Dozier and then some.

[beckmt]

DeLeon is iffy given his shoulder issues.  Would want at least 2 including Alveras lottery tickets to make this work.

Dodgers still look like trying to lowball, but may succeed with no other players for Dozier

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

I'm not saying we need two top-of-the-line No. 1 in the rotation types for Dozier alone. But we need two capable SP we can possibly plug into the rotation in 2017 and beyond. 

 

The best way to turn this team around, in both the near and extended future, is to get two near-ready MLB starters. That's what we need – now. De Leon and Stewart could still be pitching for the Twins in 2018, 2019 and beyond. How is that not helping us in the future?

 

That's why the centerpiece of any trade for Dozier must be two MLB-ready, or near-ready SP. Starting pitching is the cornerstone of our need right now – and in the future. Let's face it: The rotation was a mess last year. Of the starters in 2016, Santana is the only one written in ink. In pencil, Gibson and Berrios. Santiago, maybe. Is Hughes going to be ready? I don't know. Will he have a 2015- or 2016-like season? I don't know. Mays and Duffey may be better suited to the bullpen. I would actually put Justin Haley ahead of them in the rotation right now, at least until we see how they all do this spring.

 

But those pitchers will likely not get us through the 2017 season. We need at least two more. That's my point.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

This! The Twins are nearing the latter stage of their rebuild. They have some pieces in place. Alvarez is a couple few years off and that's why he's a secondary piece. Santana followed by a bunch of #4s and #5s would be significantly better than what the team put out last year. If Gibson, Hughes, Berrios, and hypothetically, DeLeon and Stewart pitch like true MLB #4s, this team would be significantly improved. Improved enough to offset the loss of Dozier and then some.

Agreed.

[nicksaviking]

 

Really? How did you know those guys couldn't hit, and how do you know Calhoun is going to bust? I'm genuinely curious, because I have no idea how good Calhoun will be or not.

 

I'm also wondering if Calhoun being a shoe-in for DH is all just based on the fact that he's not solid at 2B and his proportions are, let's say unique. If he has moderate power I'd think LF would be a fit or even 3B. I'm not sure what kind of arm he has but 40-year-old Torii Hunter kind of proved Target Field requires next to no range. I don't know enough about him outside of a couple of prospect write ups and his stats, but there might not be a better place for a guy who looks and hits like Kirby Puckett than right here.

[drjim]

 

Both would be bad. Of the two, making no move would be seen as worse in the short term. It would take years to know if the trade is good for the Twins, regardless of the players. By then, the FO would have been running things for a few years and we would know if they were competent or not based on a fuller picture of decisions made....

 

No trade would absolutely not look worse for the majority of the fan base in the short term.

 

Ultimately the only thing that matters for fan interest in the long term is winning, but trading Dozier for prospects will be a hit to casual fans in the short term. So a bad trade is the worst of all worlds, short term hit with no long term benefit.

[Doomtints]

 

DeLeon is iffy given his shoulder issues.  Would want at least 2 including Alveras lottery tickets to make this work.

Dodgers still look like trying to lowball, but may succeed with no other players for Dozier

 

What shoulder issues?

 

Do you really think the Twins are going to get a team's #1 pitching prospect plus a handful of other guys for Brian Dozier?

[gunnarthor]

 

Interesting that some posters would resist trading Dozier now because prospects, even top 100 ones, are far from sure things. And then to further support the idea of keeping Dozier, they say we can compete in 2017-2018... based on the number of former top 100 prospects we have.

Not saying that's your argument, I just thought it was an interesting juxtaposition within a few posts there!

I'm not against trading Dozier.  But I'm against the idea that the Twins can't be good until we're in year 4 or 5 of the Sano era.  They have pieces in place and many coming up behind.  Don't trade Dozier unless it actually helps.  There seems (to me) a sense that we "gotta" move Dozier or it's a failure and I think that's wrong.  If we keep Dozier, we have an in his prime player playing with an exciting young core.  

 

There are other ways to improve our pitching, if we keep Dozier.  Improving the bullpen, natural positive regression, a catcher with better pitch framing abilities, etc.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm also wondering if Calhoun being a shoe-in for DH is all just based on the fact that he's not solid at 2B and his proportions are, let's say unique. If he has moderate power I'd think LF would be a fit or even 3B. I'm not sure what kind of arm he has but 40-year-old Torii Hunter kind of proved Target Field requires next to no range. I don't know enough about him outside of a couple of prospect write ups and his stats, but there might not be a better place for a guy who looks and hits like Kirby Puckett than right here.

 

Fangraphs says he doesn't have much of an arm at all, and is slower than you, Nick...that said, if he can hit like a DH, he has real value.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm not against trading Dozier.  But I'm against the idea that the Twins can't be good until we're in year 4 or 5 of the Sano era.  They have pieces in place and many coming up behind.  Don't trade Dozier unless it actually helps.  There seems (to me) a sense that we "gotta" move Dozier or it's a failure and I think that's wrong.  If we keep Dozier, we have an in his prime player playing with an exciting young core.  

 

There are other ways to improve our pitching, if we keep Dozier.  Improving the bullpen, natural positive regression, a catcher with better pitch framing abilities, etc.

 

Isn't 2018 year 4 of the Sano era? 

[gunnarthor]

 

What shoulder issues?

 

Do you really think the Twins are going to get a team's #1 pitching prospect plus a handful of other guys for Brian Dozier?

He missed two months last season with a sore shoulder and an ankle injury.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm also wondering if Calhoun being a shoe-in for DH is all just based on the fact that he's not solid at 2B and his proportions are, let's say unique.

The Fangraphs prospect guy said Calhoun was really slow, so defensively, Kubel/Cuddyer might be his upside in the outfield.

 

But analysts also say he has a pretty special power/contact profile at the plate, so I think it could be workable. Maybe not a guy you want to guarantee big money in free agency beyond age 30, but absolutely an asset through his years of team control.

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

What shoulder issues?

 

Do you really think the Twins are going to get a team's #1 pitching prospect plus a handful of other guys for Brian Dozier?

I would hope so. Dozier is worth it. Proven durable 2B, who hits and hits for power? Right handed - which is what the Dodgers need? Absolutely well worth it.

 

Dozier's value is high right now – but could get even higher. The Dodgers are looking for a right-handed 2B who can hit. Dozier more than exceeds that profile. He hits with considerable power. And he plays a very good 2B. 

 

I think it's the Dodgers who are more desperate to get Dozier than it is the Twins who desperately need to trade him for prospects. 

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

 

I'm not against trading Dozier.  But I'm against the idea that the Twins can't be good until we're in year 4 or 5 of the Sano era.  They have pieces in place and many coming up behind.  Don't trade Dozier unless it actually helps.  There seems (to me) a sense that we "gotta" move Dozier or it's a failure and I think that's wrong.  If we keep Dozier, we have an in his prime player playing with an exciting young core.  

 

There are other ways to improve our pitching, if we keep Dozier.  Improving the bullpen, natural positive regression, a catcher with better pitch framing abilities, etc.

I couldn't agree more.

[beckmt]

 

What shoulder issues?

 

Do you really think the Twins are going to get a team's #1 pitching prospect plus a handful of other guys for Brian Dozier?

He had shoulder issues last year at the end of the season.  Did not expect Urias, but want more than De Leon/Alveras  and org filler.  Need the third piece to avoid the chance of pitchers burning out.  Now the Dodgers may not do that and I might have to look elsewhere. 

Dodgers do not have a lot of other options at this time.  Both Forthsyte and Kinsler have more trade issues than Dozier.  Only option would be if Detroit keep a lot of money for trading Kinsler and that still does not handle the extension he want to waive his no trade.

[Doomtints]

 

 

No trade would absolutely not look worse for the majority of the fan base in the short term.

 

Ultimately the only thing that matters for fan interest in the long term is winning, but trading Dozier for prospects will be a hit to casual fans in the short term. So a bad trade is the worst of all worlds, short term hit with no long term benefit.

 

I think you are going on the defense rather than trying to look at things objectively, because this point is far off from the discussion. 

 

Casual fans follow teams based on W-L records and playoff berths.  What you are worried about are Brian Dozier fans, not casual Twins fans.   Your point seems to be that some Brian Dozier fans would not be smart enough to understand that trading him is necessary for the team to rebuild and thus they would tune out the Twins unless they can find another veteran player to latch onto.  I disagree with that point, too, but even if true, how much of an attendance drop would are you expecting here?  And wouldn't they stop showing up whether or not the trade is a good one?

 

Dozier was the top Twins performer in 2016.  But I would bet the fans are more into people like Sano and Buxton.  Any Dozier fans probably would love rooting for Sano instead.

 

I'm also not seeing how we would think that these types of fans would even know what was a good trade or not.  It takes all of us a few years to figure that out.  Why would casual fans know right away?

[Doomtints]

 

 

He had shoulder issues last year at the end of the season. 

 

How did he manage 4 starts for the Dodgers after the September call ups if his shoulder was busted at the end of the year?

[drjim]

I offhand mentioned it earlier, but if the Dodgers won't meet the price, what if the Twins extended Dozier?

 

Would adding 3/60 to the current contract be enough?

 

Would time out nicely, big money kicks in when Mauer comes off the books and contract would end right when Sano and Buxton hit their free agent years and would theoretically start to get expensive. Opens a nice 5 year window if they can sort out their pitching.

[TheLeviathan]

 

I disagree. NOT making a deal does not make the new FO look bad. Making a bad deal would...

 

That's what I was saying.  They have to avoid making a bad deal and looking like pushovers.

 

At the same time, Dozier needs to go.  So they need to find a way to make it work. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm not against trading Dozier. But I'm against the idea that the Twins can't be good until we're in year 4 or 5 of the Sano era.

But Dozier is gone in only 2 years. You've got to take a realistic assessment of our odds of contending the next 2 years. It's not impossible, but it is unlikely, particularly in 2017.

 

And besides, most of the prospects we have been discussing could be ready to produce in MLB within 2 years. If De Leon takes 2017 to adjust, who cares?

[Lee-The-Twins-Fan]

I doubt of Dozier would go for that - especially without a no trade clause.

[drjim]

I think you are going on the defense rather than trying to look at things objectively, because this point is far off from the discussion.

 

Casual fans follow teams based on W-L records and playoff berths. What you are worried about are Brian Dozier fans, not casual Twins fans. Your point seems to be that some Brian Dozier fans would not be smart enough to understand that trading him is necessary for the team to rebuild and thus they would tune out the Twins unless they can find another veteran player to latch onto. I disagree with that point, too, but even if true, how much of an attendance drop would are you expecting here? And wouldn't they stop showing up whether or not the trade is a good one?

 

Dozier was the top Twins performer in 2016. But I would bet the fans are more into people like Sano and Buxton. Any Dozier fans probably would love rooting for Sano instead.

 

I'm also not seeing how we would think that these types of fans would even know what was a good trade or not. It takes all of us a few years to figure that out. Why would casual fans know right away?

They would know that a team that has been terrible for 6 years just traded a 40 hr guy for prospects. Would take out the one bright spot.

 

It's still worth it for the Twins if they make a good trade. But a bad trade is a disaster, especially if the young guys start to pop next season.

[gunnarthor]

 

How did he manage 4 starts for the Dodgers after the September call ups if his shoulder was busted at the end of the year?

It was the beginning of the season, not the end.  Here's John Sickel's report on him that notes he missed April and May because of shoulder and ankle issues:

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/9/3/12782230/mlb-rookie-report-jose-de-leon-rhp-los-angeles-dodgers