North Short Nine: Pirates Should Target Dozier

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yes.  And his power numbers are pretty empty.  Usually guys who smack 25+ home runs have an OPS better than .750.  At 42 homers he managed an .886 OPS, which still seems like it should be higher.

 

This doesn't mean he wouldn't be a good fit for a team that with a lot of high OBP guys but lacking a solid power guy.  

 

Have you looked at the leader boards, to compare him to others' results? By any measure, looking at only offense, he's a top 15-20 player in baseball.

[Mike Sixel]

 

you are looking at one years worth of data.

Additionally, isnt the point to trade him to a team where we woukd get the most value in return? That happens when we trade Dozier to a team that needs a 2B.

 

The point is to trade him for the package that most helps this team. Holding out for some mythical "perfect trade" for the "best" value means he isn't traded. It is possible that best deal is from someone that wants him to DH or play 1B, and sometimes 2B. Or all three.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Did you read the article and comments? It was suggested that Dozier could bring back 3 prospects but one of the top two would probably require a potential mid rotation return. I was going with their thinking and adding the mid rotation potential guy they suggested in Gibson (I know he was not that this year but some still believe in that potential). Two catching prospects were also suggested as the second or even third level prospects by another one of their posters since they had two higher on the depth chart making them expendable. I didn't research the names. I just responded to the original article and comments Seth linked...

I thought the same thing. I don't see Gibson as a mid rotation starter. He's in the same lump as Milone or Hughes. Don't expect much, and hope you are pleasantly surprised in getting a 4th starter rather than 5th,

[Doomtints]

 

Have you looked at the leader boards, to compare him to others' results? By any measure, looking at only offense, he's a top 15-20 player in baseball.

 

Yes, in 2016 he jumped up to #19 for OPS due to his HR aberration.

 

2015 is more telling.  He ranked 22nd for home runs -- still very good -- but 81st for OPS.  It's a similar story for 2014.  That's a lot of empty power.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yes, in 2016 he jumped up to #19 for OPS due to his HR aberration.

 

2015 is more telling.  He ranked 22nd for home runs -- still very good -- but 81st for OPS.  It's a similar story for 2014.  That's a lot of empty power.

Is there such a thing as "empty power"?

 

"Empty batting average", sure... That makes sense. The batting average stat is limited in its ability to record extra valuable base hits as opposed to simply scrapping together singles.

 

Power, uh... it doesn't really work the same way because slugging awards more points for additional bases. I think I see your point but claiming Dozier's power is "empty" is a disservice to his value as a hitter.

[markos]

The point is to trade him for the package that most helps this team. Holding out for some mythical "perfect trade" for the "best" value means he isn't traded. It is possible that best deal is from someone that wants him to DH or play 1B, and sometimes 2B. Or all three.

The problem with that line of thinking is that there are generally a ton of players available at 1B or DH that can provide 80%-90% of the offensive value as Dozier. Guys like Napoli, Chris Carter, Pedro Alvarez, Matt Joyce, Steve Pierce, etc are available on affordable 1-year deals and are capable of 110-120 wRC+ - maybe more in a platoon. Sure, Dozier probably projects slightly better than them. But if I was a team with a hole at 1B, I'm trying to fill it with one of those guys rather than trading away a bunch of top prospects for the marginal improvement Dozier would provide.

[Doomtints]

 

Is there such a thing as "empty power"?

 

"Empty batting average", sure... That makes sense. The batting average stat is limited in its ability to record extra valuable base hits as opposed to simply scrapping together singles.

 

Power, uh... it doesn't really work the same way because slugging awards more points for additional bases. I think I see your point but claiming Dozier's power is "empty" is a disservice to his value as a hitter.

 

Yes, perhaps it's not the right term, but I can't think of one that sounds better.  There's "streaky" or "feast or famine" but neither are as descriptive as they don't acknowledge that he has power.  

 

Dozier can be an asset to the right team -- a team that has no problem getting on base but doesn't hit it out of the park.  Some of the Twins playoff teams a decade ago, for example.  

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yes, perhaps it's not the right term, but I can't think of one that sounds better.  There's "streaky" or "feast or famine" but neither are as descriptive as they don't acknowledge that he has power.  

 

Dozier can be an asset to the right team -- a team that has no problem getting on base but doesn't hit it out of the park.  Some of the Twins playoff teams a decade ago, for example.  

Yeah, I don't know how to really refer to Dozier as a hitter... He's definitely a somewhat flawed hitter overall. Whether that's due to his feast or famine or if it's his (usually) ridiculously low batting average, there's usually a hitch in his value that drags him down a bit in relation to his overall power numbers.

 

But he does two things well: hit for power and draw walks. He's a bit like Adam Dunn without dominant numbers in either category but offsets that "deficiency" with acceptable defense up the middle.

 

He's a weird player when you get right down to it. I don't know if I've ever seen a player as streaky or one that plays an up the middle position with power and discipline but an absolutely **** batting average.

 

edit: Just remembered Dan Uggla. He's a decent comp as a hitter but Uggla was a butcher with the glove. Dozier already has more career value with roughly three seasons less playing time.

[TheLeviathan]

Lots of teams could use that kind of "empty power" behind their table setters.  

 

We should be looking at all teams that are contending or hope to be contending next year.  Many of them will find a way to bring in a 30-40 HR hitter into their lineup.

[Kwak]

 

The problem with that line of thinking is that there are generally a ton of players available at 1B or DH that can provide 80%-90% of the offensive value as Dozier. Guys like Napoli, Chris Carter, Pedro Alvarez, Matt Joyce, Steve Pierce, etc are available on affordable 1-year deals and are capable of 110-120 wRC+ - maybe more in a platoon. Sure, Dozier probably projects slightly better than them. But if I was a team with a hole at 1B, I'm trying to fill it with one of those guys rather than trading away a bunch of top prospects for the marginal improvement Dozier would provide.

The difference: a team can employ both Dozier (as an infielder) and the other at 1B. That raises Dozier's trade value.

[gunnarthor]

One other thing to consider, teams generally trade with teams that they are comfortable with but with both a new GM and new VP of Baseball (or whatever his title is), we don't know what relationships Falvey and Levine bring with other teams.  But maybe the first question would be is would Dozier be a fit in either Texas or Cleveland?  I'm not sure.

[HitInAPinch]

I'm curious where this "Dozier playing 1st" is coming from.  I can't find a record that he's played 1st base in MLB or MiLB.

[HitInAPinch]

 

Out of the names they brought up, I'd put Taillon as the top target to trade for. I know others on the board are fascinated with Glasnow too. After the failed attempt to develop Alex Meyer, I'm not sure I want to dive back into the extremely tall pitcher pool.  

How short sighted of you  

 

Seriously, nobody else thought of that??

[Vanimal46]

 

I'm curious where this "Dozier playing 1st" is coming from.  I can't find a record that he's played 1st base in MLB or MiLB.

Well the assumption is that anyone can play 1B, so that's where it's coming from I think. Just another angle to come up with other teams that could fit Dozier into their lineup. 

[HitInAPinch]

 

Well the assumption is that anyone can play 1B, so that's where it's coming from I think. Just another angle to come up with other teams that could fit Dozier into their lineup. 

Yeah, I get where they're coming from.  I don't think it would be a very good selling point.  To me it's saying Dozier is so bad defensively that the Twins are thinking of moving him to 1st.  That big thud you hear is Dozier's trade value dropping.

[HitInAPinch]

Finished reading the NorthShoreNine article.  I like the Kuhl / Keller as a starter.  But need more.

Maybe swap out Kuhl for Taillon?  How about Cervelli? 
Twins would obviously have to add something to the mix.  I don't know what...

 

Edit:  Ok, add E. Santana.

[Mike Sixel]

Yeah, I get where they're coming from. I don't think it would be a very good selling point. To me it's saying Dozier is so bad defensively that the Twins are thinking of moving him to 1st. That big thud you hear is Dozier's trade value dropping.

No one is saying his defense is bad. I am saying that a team that loves it's second baseman, but not 1B, might want him at first. Sometimes people read stuff that just isn't typed at all.

[Doomtints]

If you have a guy who can handle himself in the middle infield, I don't think you move him to 1st.  

 

I mean, maybe Terry Ryan would....

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

If you have a guy who can handle himself in the middle infield, I don't think you move him to 1st.  

 

I mean, maybe Terry Ryan would....

 

 

If you are trading for Dozier, and you have a great 2B, but no 1B.....you might.

 

It's like you all won't even consider how well his bat plays (if he's like this) at ANY position. Is he more valuable at 2B, of course. 

[Doomtints]

 

If you are trading for Dozier, and you have a great 2B, but no 1B.....you might.

 

It's like you all won't even consider how well his bat plays (if he's like this) at ANY position. Is he more valuable at 2B, of course. 

 

You MIGHT do that.  The Yankees moved A-Rod to 3rd from the middle infield when they signed him, but only because they had someone elite in the middle already.

But we're not talking about A-Rod or Jeter here.  Dozier isn't in those categories either as a hitter or as a defender.  Though do you give up on Dozier in the middle infield now?  If you have someone in the middle signed for a very long time and he is tops hat his position, yeah maybe you do that.

I might add that Dozier to me looks like he'd be very good at 1B.  I'm just not sure it's a move a GM would make seeing that middle infielders are traditionally defensive specialists.  (Though right now is an exception).  If you have a guy who can play there and hit for power, I'd lean toward keeping him there.

 

Now, moving Dozier to 3B for a guy like Polanco to play in the middle, that could make sense as it's making room for a younger guy.  

[jimmer]

IMO, Doziers 2016 is an outlier year. I doubt he can maintain a wRC+ in the 130s since it had never even been in the 120s before this past season. I think a lot of teams looking for a 1B or DH will look at his production with skeptic eyes.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'm sure they will, but Dozier has shown the ability to do this for 3 seasons now.  This was just the one where it was sustained the longest, and given his age, it's not unreasonable to expect some bidding on there.  LIke it or not, he's still a clear upgrade over other options, which will attract attention.  Someone who wants to compete will likely send a nice package over if they think Dozier will get them over the top.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

IMO, Doziers 2016 is an outlier year. I doubt he can maintain a wRC+ in the 130s since it had never even been in the 120s before this past season. I think a lot of teams looking for a 1B or DH will look at his production with skeptic eyes.

I think there will be skepticism whether Dozier is a 40 homer guy - and there should be - but given his 2016, I think teams will be comfortable bidding on a 30 homer second baseman who has the ability to touch 40 homers in the right season.

 

People tend to overlook Dozier's continual rise in homers since he entered the league: 6, 18, 23, 28, 42. No dips, no stalling out, just a steady climb upward over four full seasons.

 

Home runs aren't everything but they're the only guaranteed run-scoring play in baseball. And getting 30+ of them from a middle infielder is a pretty big deal, especially if he's slotted into a lineup where he's taking 50% of his plate appearances with men on base. That will lead to anywhere between 20-50 more runs scored in a season over the typical 10-15 homer second baseman.

[jimmer]

I think there will be skepticism whether Dozier is a 40 homer guy - and there should be - but given his 2016, I think teams will be comfortable bidding on a 30 homer second baseman who has the ability to touch 40 homers in the right season.

 

People tend to overlook Dozier's continual rise in homers since he entered the league: 6, 18, 23, 28, 42. No dips, no stalling out, just a steady climb upward over four full seasons.

 

Home runs aren't everything but they're the only guaranteed run-scoring play in baseball. And getting 30+ of them from a middle infielder is a pretty big deal, especially if he's slotted into a lineup where he's taking 50% of his plate appearances with men on base. That will lead to anywhere between 20-50 more runs scored in a season over the typical 10-15 homer second baseman.

my comment had more to do with teams looking at his numbers this year and considering whether or not they were sustainable enough to sign him to be a 1B or DH. He has already proven himself to have very good value at 2B, which is why i said if we trade him it should be to a team looking at him as a 2B option.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

my comment had more to do with teams looking at his numbers this year and considering whether or not they were sustainable enough to sign him to be a 1B or DH. He has already proven himself to have very good value at 2B, which is why i said if wr trade him it should be to a team looking at him as a 2B option.

Ah, right. No argument here. Dozier is a second baseman or bust, in my opinion.

 

If he had more of an arm, he'd be valuable at third but I don't see that happening.