Complete Games

[notoriousgod71]

So we're rumbling along at 82 CG in all of MLB this year.

 

Here are some of the excuses I've heard over the past x amount of years about why the pitcher can't go the distance:

 

1) Pitcher is too young

2) Pitcher is too old

3) Too early in the season, his arm isn't ready

4) Too late in the season, his arm is tired

5) Game is a blowout, no point in running him out there more

6) Game is too close, he can't be trusted to continue

7) It's a save situation

8) Pitcher is at or near 100 pitches

9) Need to get the bullpen some work

10) Pitcher had a previous injury- no point in risking it

11) It's too hot

12) It's too cold

13) Pitcher sat in the dugout too long between innings

14) Hitter from the opposite side is coming up

15) Pitcher makes too much money- have to protect your investment

16) This isn't fantasy baseball- you don't get extra points for complete games

 

What is the perfect storm that would allow a pitcher to get a complete game these days?

 

It really continues to boggle my mind that you would not want to let the same pitcher go as long as he is effective, especially when most team's have shambles in their bullpen. There would not be a need for 13 man pitching staffs if you got a complete game every now and then. Pitch counts have never been proven to prevent injuries. In fact, it's pretty obvious that there are more injuries now than ever before.

 

End old person rant.

 

 

[KirbyDome89]

Statistically hitters have more success with each PA against the starter. By the third time through the order the difference is enough to merit removal of the starter. I'm not saying there is anything wrong with a pitcher going the distance if he is rolling but there is an argument to be made for removing a pitcher before innings 7 - 9. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

While we certainly hear those excuses, I don't think they have actually been the primary driver behind the trend.  Relief pitching is just more effective.

 

A good thing to check on that would be the relative production (tOPS+) for "late & close" situations through the years:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2016#clutc::none

 

Just glancing back at 10 year intervals, it certainly seems like batters are losing effectiveness (and thus pitchers gaining effectiveness) in such situations:

 

Year tOPS+

1966 102
1976 98
1986 98
1996 93
2006 93
2016 88

 

I guess you could still deploy ace starters in complete-game fashion, but once you've established that relievers can often approach ace performance in late innings, and you already have such relievers on your roster, there just isn't much to be gained at that point by making your ace go the distance more often.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Another look, by average tOPS+ by decade:

 

Decade tOPS+ Close and Late

2010s 90.1
2000s 92.5
1990s 94.2
1980s 96.7
1970s 99.8
1960s 99.7
1950s 100

[gunnarthor]

The game changed.  Even when a starter is going well, there is too much pressure on the manager to limit his innings (over a season) or pitch count (in a game).  And nowadays, most pitchers are on limits in the minors in the first place.

 

I don't really care about CG anymore but I would like a Twins pitcher to throw 200 innings again. 

[TheLeviathan]

Players are large investments.  I think that explains about 95% of it.

[PseudoSABR]

Bullpen effectiveness, depth, and better implementation I think have quite a bit to do with it as well.  Beyond true ace pitchers, most bullpens possess a guy who is likely to perform better than the starter with more than a 100 pitches.  It's about mitigating risk both to the starter and within the game situation. 

[GCTF]

Walter Johnson threw over 500 complete games and where is he now? Dead. Think about that for a minute.

[Joe A. Preusser]

The only scenarios in which it makes sense to let a pitcher top the usual 115-130 pitches needed for a CG are:

 

He is still dealing filthy stuff.

The bullpen is overworked/overused.

It's a blowout score and it's ok if he gives up an additional 3 because he's tired.

He's a knuckleballer.

 

I'm sure some of the more savvy posters on here could add some more, but I'm tapped out. It's a meaningless stat that few care about anymore. Bullpens are not solely for mediocre or washed up talent anymore. They have evolved into a force to be reckoned with in their own right.