Wilson Ramos torn ACL

[Richie the Rally Goat]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/17653491/washington-nationals-announce-star-catcher-wilson-ramos-torn-acl

 

As the big free agent catcher available in the offseason, what does this do to his chances of a big pay day?

[mazeville]

Seriously damages it. 

 

No team is going to give him a long-term deal now.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I don't know. He may not be getting a 5 year 100 million dollar deal anymore. But he will probably be ready close to the start of the season next year. That certainly isn't going to change his 5 year deal for teams to a 1 year deal. I just don't see it.

 

I think a team could still offer a 4 year deal and get a pretty good player. Maybe not for April 2017 right away, but probably for May 2017 ongoing. What's the harm in that?

[Vanimal46]

Tough loss for the Nationals. 

For Ramos, it says in the article this is the same knee he injured in 2012 where he tore his ACL and MCL. If there are serious questions whether he can continue catching, I could see his value going down in free agency. 

[markos]

It will be interesting to see if the Nationals offer him a qualifying offer. I can see a good argument that Ramos should take it and try to restore his value. Hard to know if any team will offer him a big-money deal if there are no guarantees he can catch again.

[Seth Stohs]

He's been hurt a ton in his career. This was really the first time he's been able to stay healthy. I can't help but feel bad for him because some team would have paid him a lot of money to be hurt the next 4-5 years. 

[old nurse]

I don't think Ramos was viewed as near Posey as a catcher, I don't think he was going to get Posy money (20m a year)

Ramos may have already been viewed as injury prone. That view would limit his market. This injury does not help that view.  The caveat is, all t takes is one team.  As competition for that one team, there is also Wieters.

Number crunching for 30+ year old catchers with injuries would lead one to believe it might a very high risk move. Not as many teams  might go that route.  Accepting a QO might not be the best option, either.

[Guest]

I feel sorry for Ramos. He's had to deal with a lot more adversity than the average player. I wish him well and hope his payday is just delayed by this injury.

[Thrylos]

This is a good read regarding ACL tears and returning (from the Chicago Tribune after Schwarber's tear.)

 

There are different kinds of tears and they have not said how severe was Ramos'.  The last player to return from an ACL tear was Arizona C Tuffy Goshwisch who had surgery in June of 2015 to repair a complete tear.  He returned in ST and started the season in the minors (he is a AAAA guy) and did pretty well (.952 OPS) , caught every game and threw out 41% of the runners.  He is 33.  Ramos just turned 29 and could be back early next season.

 

Allegedly he turned down a 3/$30M extension by the Nats.  They might or might not make a qualifying offer, but got to keep in mind that this was a career season for him after a .229/.258/.358 campaign last season.  Whether someone was willing to pay much more than that Nats offer regardless of knee situation is questionable.  Maybe 3/$36, but I just cannot see it going that high, based on past performance.   Plus the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, and Dodgers are all set in the position.  Maybe Detroit, or the Cubs, but I just do not see much market for him among the over-spenders, regardless his knee. 

[bird]

Good trade, Billy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

He's been hurt a ton in his career. This was really the first time he's been able to stay healthy.

First time seems like a bit of an exaggeration.  Ramos spent full seasons in MLB with zero days on the disabled list in both 2011 and 2015, prior to 2016.  (Not to mention most of his minor league career?)  He obviously wasn't an iron man but he acquitted himself pretty well in playing time outside his knee surgery in 2012, and then his hamstring issues in the first half of 2013 (related to the knee surgery perhaps?).  You also have to remember Ramos is exclusively playing catcher in the non-DH league.

 

First 5 full seasons, starts at catcher:

Posey 483

Mauer 481

Ramos 417

 

A little on the low side, but not remarkably so.

 

Obviously that his leg has failed again in 2016 is a bad sign, and just before FA is rotten luck.  Hope he still gets a decent contract, and comes back strong.

[gunnarthor]

MLBtraderumors had an him getting a 5/75m contract before the injury.  If that's roughly accurate, and the Nats offer him a QO, he should probably take it, heal, and restore his value and be a FA at 30.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

 

Allegedly he turned down a 3/$30M extension by the Nats.  They might or might not make a qualifying offer, but got to keep in mind that this was a career season for him after a .229/.258/.358 campaign last season.  Whether someone was willing to pay much more than that Nats offer regardless of knee situation is questionable.  Maybe 3/$36, but I just cannot see it going that high, based on past performance.   Plus the Yankees, Red Sox, Giants, and Dodgers are all set in the position.  Maybe Detroit, or the Cubs, but I just do not see much market for him among the over-spenders, regardless his knee. 

I think he would have easily topped 3/30 if not for the injury.  Yeah, he was bad in 2015, but that was more of an outlier than his 2016 has been in the other direction.  (66 OPS+ after a career 104 mark entering that season, as compared to 123 this year after after a career 93 mark entering the season)

 

I'll add the Red Sox are not necessarily "set" at the position unless you buy Sandy Leon's remarkable turnaround.  And you don't have to limit the market to "over-spenders" if you are only talking a total contract value of $40-50 mil or whatever.  Almost every team in baseball can afford that if they want to, and probably has doled it out recently -- heck, the super-frugal Pirates gave their catcher a 3/31 extension early.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

MLBtraderumors had an him getting a 5/75m contract before the injury.  If that's roughly accurate, and the Nats offer him a QO, he should probably take it, heal, and restore his value and be a FA at 30.

I thought that 5/75 was a bit high since he's come down to earth a bit this season, but 4/50 was probably in play, maybe even 4/60.

 

Most definitely agreed on the QO if it is offered.  Fortunately for Ramos, the Nats don't have much in the way of internal replacements (Pedro Severino is young and interesting but probably not the type of prospect they want to rely on), so they might be forced to make a fair bid for Ramos even if they don't make a QO.

[Sarah]

 

Good trade, Billy.

 

Sorry I can't tell if you're trying to be sarcastic but I'm still upset about that trade. Even with his injuries, Wilson Ramos is still playing in MLB. What is Matt Capps doing these days? Ramos was having a great season and it would be nice to still have him in the Twins organization. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I think it's in both the Nats' and Ramos' best interests to offer and accept a QO.

 

Given this injury, I'd be surprised if anyone offers Ramos much more than a 3/36 contract.

 

And given how he'd make close to half that in a single season of a QO, I'd make that move. The Nats get a single season of an expensive catcher with upside and Ramos gets to reestablish value.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Brock, odds are Ramos will miss a significant portion of the 2017 season (or at least, be unable to catch for a significant portion of the season).  In that case, it's hardly in the Nats best interest to give him a QO, which would give them no discount on 2017 but also no control or options for 2018 and beyond.

 

A better approach might be a two year deal, like some pitchers have been signing lately after surgery.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

I think it's in both the Nats' and Ramos' best interests to offer and accept a QO.

 

Given this injury, I'd be surprised if anyone offers Ramos much more than a 3/36 contract.

 

And given how he'd make close to half that in a single season of a QO, I'd make that move. The Nats get a single season of an expensive catcher with upside and Ramos gets to reestablish value.

 

This... If QOs are still around, it makes a ton of sense for Ramos to take one. He gets a guaranteed pay day much higher than what he'd get at a long term deal and has a chance to be back on the market next year... it's possible someone might still throw enough (say 80 or so mil) at him to make him rethink it, but I've got to think he'd be better off waiting a year.

[TheLeviathan]

I think 2/20 would make a lot of sense for both parties.

[Heezy1323]

 

This is a good read regarding ACL tears and returning (from the Chicago Tribune after Schwarber's tear.)

 

There are different kinds of tears and they have not said how severe was Ramos'.  The last player to return from an ACL tear was Arizona C Tuffy Goshwisch who had surgery in June of 2015 to repair a complete tear.  He returned in ST and started the season in the minors (he is a AAAA guy) and did pretty well (.952 OPS) , caught every game and threw out 41% of the runners.  He is 33.  Ramos just turned 29 and could be back early next season.

 

That's a nice link- overall a fairly good article. A couple things I would mention just for the sake of clarity.

 

1) While there technically do exist different types of ACL tears, it is for all practical purposes a binary classification. Meaning your ACL is either functional or non-functional. Most of the time it is clear from an MRI, history and exam which type of tear someone has. There is a small group of people who can function athletically at a very high level in the absence of an ACL (DeJuan Blair in the NBA doesn't have an ACL in either knee, for example). However, these athletes are by far the exception, and it is very difficult to determine who is going to fall into this group.

 

2) A small clarification about nomenclature: there is a difference between ACL 'repair' and ACL 'reconstruction', though the terms are often used interchangeably. 'Repair' indicates that the person's native ACL was stitched back into place and allowed to heal. This was tried historically and fell out of favor due to high failure rates. However, with the improvement in instrumentation and arthroscopic techniques, there is a recently renewed interest in ACL repairs. Certainly the long term data is lacking, but there are some promising initial results on this front. Something I am certainly keeping my eyes on as a surgeon, and I suspect it will become a larger part of the conversation in the next few years. 

 ACL 'reconstruction' indicates the use of a separate piece of tissue (either from the patient or a cadaver) to create a 'new' ACL. This is certainly what is most commonly performed at this time. I could talk for an hour about how to choose the tissue source, but by and large it is fairly well-accepted that cadaver grafts have a significantly higher failure rate in patients under 20 years old particularly. In my practice, I almost never use cadaver grafts in anyone under 35 or 40 unless there are unique circumstances.

 

3. It is possible that when you said it was unknown how severe Ramos' injury was, that you were referring to the presence or absence of associated injuries. There are several commonly associated injuries that go along with ACL tears including meniscus tears, surface cartilage injuries, additional ligament injuries, fractures and others. There is certainly wide variation in the presence of these associated injuries along with an ACL tear, and they can affect surgery and recovery significantly. 

 

IMHO, catcher is probably the most difficult position to return to after ACL reconstruction due to the demands of the position, so that part of Ramos injury is concerning to me. Presuming he has undergone (or will soon undergo) surgery, a 6 month recovery would put him right around opening day (if everything goes perfectly). Definite financial as well as physical bummer for Ramos...

[Brock Beauchamp]

Brock, odds are Ramos will miss a significant portion of the 2017 season (or at least, be unable to catch for a significant portion of the season). In that case, it's hardly in the Nats best interest to give him a QO, which would give them no discount on 2017 but also no control or options for 2018 and beyond.

 

A better approach might be a two year deal, like some pitchers have been signing lately after surgery.

Ah, I thought he'd be back in early 2017, missing only a month or so.

 

In that case, if I'm Ramos I take a one year deal at whatever I can get and run with it. I don't think Ramos needs to prove much to get a decent long term contract, just string together a solid second half of the 2017 season.