Article: What if the Twins do Nothing Today?

[Rosterman]

We have to give Ryan credit. This is a tough job, being a general manager.

 

First off, the Twins option for Liriano was (1) sign him to a multi-year contract (2) offer him $12.5 million and if he doesn't take it, we get a draft choice (3) let him walk. They traded him...which means they can still offer him a multi-year contract depending on how he increases/decreases his market value, and we got two prospects in return. Both are basically major league ready. One ahs a pitching upside. The other can be that extra guy i the infield, replacing one of two higher priced guys next season.

 

We all talk the talk about getting stuff for our stuff, Span, Willingham, Morneau, Perkins, etc.

 

We forget that our next door neighbor has equally tantalizing stuff and may offer incentives (payroll givebacks) or has different needs and desires. Reading the list of potential players that can be had for some price (i.e. non starting pitching), the Twins may very well pull a zero. It was actually looking more and more like Janey Carroll would be out biggest trading chip.

 

Most teams are going to deal from areas of strength in the minors, or those guys on the cusp of being minor free agents that they don't have 40-man roster room for, or guys like we got from the White Sox, a couple of players that the Sox feel would be replaceable by guys already in their system. I would say the Twins got similar to Florimon and Bromberg, two players that may be ignored by the Twins because there is stuff like them coming up in the system and the Twins really don't see them contributing to the team in palce of, say, otehrs in the system, or otehr minor league free agents that could also be available.

 

Free agency. The Twins need to keep Willingham just to prove that they don't rent free agents. The Twins are also liable to attract more highly regarded minor free agents (The Bowdens, for example) next year because players will see an opportunity.

 

There are a lot of those promising 24-25 roster players out there, as there also are the 41st/42nd that get cut when people on the 60-man must return. Teams have to move guys not just because they ain't good, but they are blocked and treading water and someone else is at the back door knocking for attention.

 

The Twins have to try the free agent market, and hopefully someone wants to come here. Hey, Doumit and Willingham came here. And Doumit wants to stay, too. That's good p.r.

 

Should the Twins ersign Baker? He's a perfect example of a competitive marketplace. I doubt that the Twins will be alone in offering him a 2-3 year back-ended contract, the guy does have talent. Again, have bridges been burned because of the way Baker was handled for the disabled list? Is he worn out pitching for Minnesota and jsut wants to try somewhere different? Does he truly love us and wants to stay and end his career (a la Nathan and Cuddyer sic).

 

Good piece, Seth. I do think Terry Ryan is looking towards 2013 as more than rebuilding. Staying competitive.

 

Yes, eliminate those early starts by Balckie, Pavano, Liriano, Marquis and the horrible era and think if they were just pitched by someone who didn't give up as many runs (i.e. Deduno and DeVries...although our sample is still too small) in which we won one and lost one....the Twins would be at least a .500 team with promise and might actually be looking to buy and trading one of our hot young guys like Hicks, Benson, Arcia or Sano for a Grienke in the stretch run.

 

Baseball is a game. Someone has to win. Someone has to lose.

 

But the price of beer always remains the same.

 

We aren't alone if offering players for trade. Although I would salivate if I could obtain a Willingham, Morneau, Span or Perkins with decent-price years on their contracts for unknowns that, in 2-3 years would be replaced by others in my system.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

With all the screaming, there is another thing to remember. The Twins are leading all of baseball in runs scored for the month of July. All of the position players are signed through next season. The position players as a groups have shown regular improvement since the beginning of the year, I can understand why TR is willing to give that away.

 

Of course the pitching is bad, but robbing Peter to pay Paul isn't the answer either.

[Mike Sixel]

How do you get better without trading?

[ltwedt]

Wow - Great picture - but it has to be 10 years and 40 pounds ago for Gardy!

[Mike Sixel]

They have 3-5 outfielders that could be ready next year, why would you not trade from a position of strength, to fill tje holes in the middle infield and starting pitching

[bird]

Lots of really good (and civil) arguments today. We would probably all agree that GM's have a tough job, and that occasionally they will make a judgment call that doesn't work out. We can then rightfully holler about their "poor judgment". I'm fine with that type of criticism. But the criticism I absolutely despise is that the Twins " are sitting on their butts doing nothing", and that "they are fine with mediocrity". These are just unfair and patently untrue criticisms. They reflect irrationality and ignorance.

 

Give Terry Ryan and the others credit for trying hard to fix things, and if you accuse them of accepting mediocrity, please supply a quote. Thank you.

[twinswon1991]

Terry figures he can fix pitching by resigning Marqui and Pavano in offseason.

[Blake]

They have 3-5 outfielders that could be ready next year, why would you not trade from a position of strength, to fill tje holes in the middle infield and starting pitching

Mike, the outfielders in the minor leagues are unproven at the MLB level.

 

I expect the Twins understand that if they don't make a good trade this year, they will have to sign a couple of big name free agent starters in the off season. If signing a couple of FA pitchers doesn't work next year, the team is blown up at the trade deadline and the Twins start over for 2014.

 

I think blowing up the team this year is one year too soon.

[Highabove]

Where no longer on the clock with players such as Span. Whats the Rush!

 

This afternoon, we do not need instant gratification.

[LastOnePicked]

Yes, good comments today. I'm a bit puzzled about how folks think the Twins will try to "stay competitive" in 2013. They haven't really been competitive for a championship in quite some time. But TR's job IS tough, no doubt. I wish him good health -- it seems the job can wear on him a bit.

 

Like a lot of folks, I have been irrational in my some of posts the last few years. But I do believe that the Twins are comfortable with mediocrity, and I think their actions, more than any one of their FO quotes, provide evidence. When they have faced obstacles to a title (say, a dominant Ace), they have failed through free agency or trading to acquire one. They consistently avoid risk and play it safe, all in the hopes to nibble out another Central Division title during years when the division is weak. Their philosophy from the White Sox is markedly different, and the real difference, from where I sit, is that one of those teams has postseason victories and a World Series title to their credit, and the other does not.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

The offseason BETTER be good.

[Winston Smith]

Yes, good comments today. I'm a bit puzzled about how folks think the Twins will try to "stay competitive" in 2013. They haven't really been competitive for a championship in quite some time. But TR's job IS tough, no doubt. I wish him good health -- it seems the job can wear on him a bit.

 

Like a lot of folks, I have been irrational in my some of posts the last few years. But I do believe that the Twins are comfortable with mediocrity, and I think their actions, more than any one of their FO quotes, provide evidence. When they have faced obstacles to a title (say, a dominant Ace), they have failed through free agency or trading to acquire one. They consistently avoid risk and play it safe, all in the hopes to nibble out another Central Division title during years when the division is weak. Their philosophy from the White Sox is markedly different, and the real difference, from where I sit, is that one of those teams has postseason victories and a World Series title to their credit, and the other does not.

I agree with this. The twins last won a playoff game in 2004 since that time the White Sox have won the world series. The Indians have been to a game 7 of the AL champ series and the Tigers have been to an AL champ series and to a world series.

[Mike Sixel]

That was disappointing for me. Actually, I think blowing up this team this year is one year too late, so we just fundamentallly disagree....

[boney]

If Ryan wasn't given what he thought was a fair offer for any Span/Perkins/Willingham etc I guess you can't blame him for not making a move. The problem to me is the thinking that they can just address the issues in the offseason. I'm not sure what the team has done recently to give anyone hope that this is what will happen.

 

So the team is just 2or3 starting pitchers from contending? When have they ever spent money on starting pitching and maybe more importantly how much would they have to outspend legitimate contenders to get a big name pitcher? Saw a conversation on here the other day where people were already talking about what pitchers the team could get on 2or3 year contracts. That may get them to the point where they can compete for division titles again but they would still be a million miles away from being a world series contender imo.

 

As much as I appreciate what TR has done in the past and he's proven with the last offseason that he can still find a bargain but maybe he's not the guy to make the big trade. I guess we'll find out this offseason.

[Monkeypaws]

Good article - I agree, there is no need to trade good players with affordable contracts. With just one or two pitchers, this team can compete in the Central. Like the idea of going after mid-range ML quality starters.

[savvyspy]

The Twins did exactly what they set out to do. Sit on their hands and prepare to ditch payroll next year. There is still a majority of fans who believe the fantasy that this team is competitive while ignoring the fact that they've been horrible for 2 years. Why would anyone named Pohlad invest when the fans don't even demand it??? They didn't make their money being stupid. If people are willing to make excuses for the front office, the manager, the hometown "superstar", and the rest of the organization why not see how much more salary they can get away with cutting?? Its still a nice semi-new ballpark and a great place to watch a game but don't fool yourselves into thinking this team is interested in competing. They've done nothing to suggest that's the case.

 

Let the excuses begin the rest of the way on why none of this is Gardy's fault and how Anderson really is the greatest pitching coach of all time if anyone bothered to listen to him. I'm sure they "aren't going to make changes for the sake of making changes" again next year.

 

Good times.

[Mike Sixel]

Out of curiousity, has any team in the last 10 years signed two legit starting MLB pitchers in one offseason?

[Winston Smith]

Well Mike they have 67+ mill tied up in 8 players and 2 lost causes. With a 90 mill payroll they'd have 23 mill to spend on 17 players. Any solid starter will cost at least 10 so do the math kind of hard to fit 2 in there isn't it. Now if they trade Morneau without paying much and or raise the payroll, which I doubt, 1 solid pitcher would be the max. More likely 2 dumpster dives.

[amjgt]

In general I am unhappy, but I will give it an "incomplete" and reserve judgement until I see whether the Twins go get a couple decent pitchers in the offseason. This non-trade clearly makes us better in 2013, but probably not as good in 2014 and beyond. So if we try to do something next year, I can accept not doing anything this trade deadline. If we see a typical offseason this year from the Twins then I would deem this trade deadline a total failure

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not talking about if the Twins will or won't, I'm just curious if it has ever happened before. Heck, outside of teams with payrolls way higher than the Twins, has any team ever signed two players to multi year deals worth more than $8-10MM per year in one offseason, regardless of position, in the last 10 years?

 

edit: I'm asking because I don't know, but if no one has, I want to manage my expectations for next offseason, and not get my hopes up too much. Nothing more or less.

[pbrezeasap]

I have a different question for all the people hell bent on selling off all of the good valuable players for high-upside prospects. When has a selling team ever gotten prospects in return that have directly translated into success for that team a few years down the road?

 

I did a quick scan of in-season trades from 2005-2009 and the only one that I saw that meets that criteria would be Texeira to the Braves for Andrus, Feliz, Harrison, and Saltalamacchia. But that's just one out of hundreds.

 

I am with the group that thinks a couple quality starting pitchers makes us competitive next year. I would rather hold out hope that the FO makes that happen then see them sell off Willingham, Span, whoever and watch the team lose 100+ games for the next however many years while we wait for the prospects who don't amount to squat 99 times out of 100.

[Mike Sixel]

How do you get the starting pitchers, that's the $25MM question....

[Jim H]

Regarding picking up starting pitching in the off season. Certainly the Brewers added 2 quality pitchers 2 years ago. The Phillies did something similar. The problem is having quality pitchers available. I don't see where the Edwin Jacksons of this world are any kind of answer. He is no better than a bottom of rotation guy being paid for his "potential" to be better.

 

As I write this, the trading deadline is over and the Twins did not make a trade, except Liriano. That is probably ok. I thought they needed to add a solid starter last winter. Now they probably need to add 2. And probably figure out a way to keep Baker. I don't think anybody from the farm except perhaps Henriks figures to be a solid consistent starter any time real soon.

[Md34]

It seems somewhat obvious that the Twins value their own talent more than the rest of the teams in the league. There were a large number of trades over the past 2-3 days so it isn't a matter that other teams are not trading. To further prove this, the team stuck with Liriano until he had little value to anyone else. In fact, they ended up choosing to trade him to a division rival. I currently live in Seattle and have watched the Mariners do much the same. Sign a few "fan friendly" players, spend a little more than prior to moving into the new stadium, make a few minor moves but do not address glaring weaknesses, market a perpetual future that never arrives but seem baffled why the team isn't competitive.

 

We know a few things:

 

1) there are no top of the rotation starters that are close to major leave ready.

2) our highest upside starter is coming back from TJ surgery and will not be able to contribute 200 innings in a season until 2014 at the earliest and will not be established until 2015.

3) Span and Willingham's contracts will be done prior to 2015.

4) team has never been willing to pay market price and thus sign a top of the rotation free agent. (I do not fault them due to the contract length that is required in free agency)

5) organizational depth is in the outfield.

6) Willingham's value has never been higher in his entire career.

 

It seems that this team wants to build to a .500 team and keep a few players (Span and Willingham) that will sell a few tickets in 2012 and possibly 2013. It may also be that they are afraid to trade major league talent for minor league talent that may miss badly. (Santana and Garza/Bartlett trades). We can say that these trades happened under Bill Smith but Terry Ryan was a special assistant and was most likely very involved in these trades behind the scenes. TR sold high on AJP but he did so from a position of strength and was able to save money to boot in this transaction. Do the same with Span and Willingham while they have high value and build for 2014 possibly.