Total System Failure Requires a Total Front Office Reset

[alskntwnsfn]

Yesterday I posted about how the Twins have relatively few people in their front office compared to some other teams (such as TB, CHC, PIT). Most other teams put substantial resources into player evaluation and player development. The Twins are behind the curve in this regard. In the past, most of it was left up to Terry Ryan's discretion with input from his scouts and maybe asking Jack Goin the occasional question. 

 

Then there was the horrifying quote from Jim Pohlad about "studying other team's media guides" to get a sense of how they structure their front offices. Any business should maintain a working knowledge of their competition, especially in an industry which is this competitive. As shocking as that quote about media guides was, at least it shows ownership is on the right path. They appear ready to fully admit that their approach has not worked (after umpteen +90 loss seasons). So, if you can't beat 'em, join 'em. 

 

But what does that look like? 

 

According to Spotrac, the Twins rank 21st in payroll in 2016. Successful teams (over the last couple years) who spend similar amounts include Pittsburgh (23rd), Houston (24), Cleveland (25), Miami (28), and Tampa Bay (30). Then there's bigger market clubs like the Cubs, Cardinals, Giants, Red Sox, Rangers, and Blue Jays who do more than simply try to buy wins (sentence edited due to missing word). So what do these front offices look like? What can we learn?

 

You can lookup these teams' front office personnel with simple google searches. By and large, most of the these teams appear to commit more front office personnel to player development and evaluation. Many of these teams have people/programs that specialize in the mental approach of the game. Virtually all have more strategic analysts. 

 

What I took away from looking at the front office of winning teams is that they have a lot of people (outside of coaches) dedicated to making their current players better and finding undervalued players. It's not just about one guy taking in some limited input from here and there, and making a call. There's a lot of work being put into player development and evaluation. That's doesn't mean they always get it right and we always get it wrong. But they take a "anything and everything we can do" approach, often employing a large and diverse team. 

 

This is a crucial period in Twins baseball history. It's the most excited I've ever been for the team because I never believed they could get over the top with the former/current front office, but unless the club truly follows the lead of better teams and commits more personnel to development, analytics, and evaluation... I (and many other fans, eventually) will be disappointed. 

 

Kim Ng? Ben Cherington? Those are interesting names, but frankly, I'm less interested in the name of the new GM and more concerned about whether they will have carte blanc to install the type of front office structure/expansion that is needed to push this team into the 21st century. 

 

And I'm not alone. The Strib recently ran a poll asking whether the team should hire from within or look outside for its next GM (link: http://www.startribune.com/poll-should-the-twins-hire-from-within-or-go-outside-for-terry-ryan-s-replacement/387434121/?showPollResults=true). Out of  1,861 responses, 1,800 said look outside. But it's not just about a name. Fans want us to look outside because we need to change the structure and culture of this front office. Terry Ryan is universally regarded as an amazing "baseball man" and human being in general, but he cannot do it alone and our next GM shouldn't try the same approach. We need a GM team. 

[Mike Sixel]

All good points.......

[jimmer]

Nice write-up, but I'd like to defend the Cubs a bit.  The deeply talented team that won like 97 games last year only had an opening day team payroll of 120M.  That's not too outrageous.  that team was very strong.  3rd best record in baseball.

 

Now they did go nuts this offseason, but by their own design, they've built with young position players (smart) and spent on pitching.

 

I'm not going to devalue the rebuild they've done and label them a team dependent on spending like the Yanks and Dodgers.

 

Just my opinion.

 

http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm

[Vanimal46]

I remember reading and liking your post about this topic in the other thread alaskantwinsfan. If I remember right, the Twins have about half the amount of people in their front office staff compared to the Rays, Pirates, Cubs, etc. 

An external hire IMO is the only way they can go. I would hope whoever the new GM is brings the culture and staff up to par. I'm sure whoever it is will have a big challenge with Pohlad trying to justify doubling the amount of staff. Lots of head count and lots of additional salaries to pay out his check book. 

[alskntwnsfn]

 

Nice write-up, but I'd like to defend the Cubs a bit.  The deeply talented team that won like 97 games last year only had an opening day team payroll of 120M.  That's not too outrageous.  that team was very strong.  3rd best record in baseball.

 

Now they did go nuts this offseason, but by their own design, they've built with young position players (smart) and spent on pitching.

 

I'm not going to devalue the rebuild they've done and label them a team dependent on spending like the Yanks and Dodgers.

 

Just my opinion.

 

http://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm

I know. They spent a lot more this year, by design because they are "going for it." Like the Red Sox, the Cubs (who's GM used to be with Boston) has a small-market mindset with deep pockets to boot. The Cubs have done much more than buy wins... I was talking more about the Yankees and Dodgers. And Detroit and Anaheim to some extent. Though they've been less successful this year. 

[alskntwnsfn]

 

I remember reading and liking your post about this topic in the other thread alaskantwinsfan. If I remember right, the Twins have about half the amount of people in their front office staff compared to the Rays, Pirates, Cubs, etc. 

An external hire IMO is the only way they can go. I would hope whoever the new GM is brings the culture and staff up to par. I'm sure whoever it is will have a big challenge with Pohlad trying to justify doubling the amount of staff. Lots of head count and lots of additional salaries to pay out his check book. 

 

Despite the club's history, I think this move signifies they are ready for such as change and I would be surprised if the hirings stop at a GM. Still... it's a crucial point and it's something that I hope fans and the media will highlight in terms of holding ownership accountable in their efforts to fix this mess. TR was a great person and a highly capable GM in many regards, but the problem is/was always much bigger than one person. 

[alskntwnsfn]

 

I remember reading and liking your post about this topic in the other thread alaskantwinsfan. If I remember right, the Twins have about half the amount of people in their front office staff compared to the Rays, Pirates, Cubs, etc. 

An external hire IMO is the only way they can go. I would hope whoever the new GM is brings the culture and staff up to par. I'm sure whoever it is will have a big challenge with Pohlad trying to justify doubling the amount of staff. Lots of head count and lots of additional salaries to pay out his check book. 

A larger team would bring added cost but other successful teams certainly feel it's worth the investment. Adding 20 extra people (hopefully good ones) might run, what $4-5M? That's like two months of Ricky Nolasco. 

 

I know you agree with that point, I'm just saying it's negligible in the grand scheme of things. Hopefully ownership will reach the same conclusion. It's not rocket science.  

[alskntwnsfn]

I'd also like to go on record as saying I don't necessarily think we need to throw everybody in the FO out. Maybe some should go, if they can't add value under the new regime, but my point is more about doing a deeper dive on development, evaluation, and analytics with a larger team. As much as people don't like interviewing for their job when a new manager comes in, it's often a necessary step in making the organization more functional. 

[Vanimal46]

 

A larger team would bring added cost but other successful teams certainly feel it's worth the investment. Adding 20 extra people (hopefully good ones) might run, what $4-5M? That's like two months of Ricky Nolasco. 

 

I know you agree with that point, I'm just saying it's negligible in the grand scheme of things. Hopefully ownership will reach the same conclusion. It's not rocket science.  

I agree with what you're saying, and I hope they can convince Pohlad the same thing. Then again, we're still talking about Pohlad who is far out of touch with how baseball teams are structured. I hope he can be sold on the idea and not just think about the bottom line.  

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I agree with what you're saying, and I hope they can convince Pohlad the same thing. Then again, we're still talking about Pohlad who is far out of touch with how baseball teams are structured. I hope he can be sold on the idea and not just think about the bottom line.

the way to sell him on it is to sell him on the bottom line. Statisticians and player evaluators cost a fraction of the salary of a free agent. No team can afford to make the mistakes that the Twins have in the last few years. And if you want a profitable team, it needs to win.

[Brandon]

I think everyone has forgotten where the team is in this rebuild we just got the first wave of prospects up and there's another wave coming.  TR did make the right moves for the bullpen for example this last offseason.  would you rather have Kintzler and Abad or Sipp and Bastardo and their contracts?  So when we won the bidding for Park it as a surprise and we had to adjust.  It caused Sano to move to the OF for a while.  That was never intended to be permanent.  Palka for Herman?  who wouldn't make that trade again? 

 

We had a bunch of bad things happen with ineffectiveness, injuries, and rookies backtracking.  The team is starting to rebound and play better and we have more prospects ready to come up.  We were on the right track. I bet we end up in the mid 70s fir wins this season just like what was predicted at the beginning because we are still in the rebuild mode and will be for 2 more seasons. 

[Mr. Brooks]

I think everyone has forgotten where the team is in this rebuild we just got the first wave of prospects up and there's another wave coming. TR did make the right moves for the bullpen for example this last offseason. would you rather have Kintzler and Abad or Sipp and Bastardo and their contracts? So when we won the bidding for Park it as a surprise and we had to adjust. It caused Sano to move to the OF for a while. That was never intended to be permanent. Palka for Herman? who wouldn't make that trade again?

 

We had a bunch of bad things happen with ineffectiveness, injuries, and rookies backtracking. The team is starting to rebound and play better and we have more prospects ready to come up. We were on the right track. I bet we end up in the mid 70s fir wins this season just like what was predicted at the beginning because we are still in the rebuild mode and will be for 2 more seasons.

Middle 70's wins this year?

Yeah if that happens I'll take back everything I've ever said about Mollie and they should name the manager of the year award after him.

[jimmer]

We'd have to win about 60% of our remaining games to get to mid 70s win.  I don't know how anyone can really believe that can happen this season.  

[h2oface]

I think everyone has forgotten where the team is in this rebuild we just got the first wave of prospects up and there's another wave coming. ........

I think you have forgotten that ...... THERE NEVER WAS A REBUILD!!! No waves. No ripples. Just normal drafting and tired mediocre pitching added to dumpster diving waiver cast-offs. Any rebuild is a figment of your imagination.

[old nurse]

Who does what based on what is listed on a website seems dubious. A front office elsewhere may have more titles.   Miami on their page list interns. The Twins do not. They have a VP for pitching development, the Twins minor league pitching coordinator does not get a title on the page. Like the mantra of the Twins have no analyticts department, the Twins front office bash may have the same sort of legs without backing. It does make for an easy excuse. Maybe if they clean house and trash the old regime enough Ryan will speak out.

[Kwak]

Adding more staff to do player evaluations?  There is only a very small number who actually do that. The rest agree with them or seek employment elsewhere. What is key is: the final evaluation correct? and how does this effect team construction? It's key people at the top--not the masses.

[alskntwnsfn]

Good write up by the Strib's Phil Miller yesterday (link: http://www.startribune.com/the-new-deal-er-younger-breed-of-techies-replacing-baseball-lifers-in-gm-roles/388040342/). 

 

It had a very familiar theme...

 

"...general managers today are selected for their ability to integrate all sorts of input from a variety of departments into a coherent plan of action.” That’s because the job has less to do with baseball, and more to do with management, than ever before.

 

“The job is about ideas — collecting them, sorting them and implementing them. Using all the tools at your disposal to uncover ideas that will lead to finding better players and winning baseball games,” Bowden said. “That means analytics, that means medical advancement, and traditional scouting, too. By combining all the information together, the game is making fewer mistakes than ever before in identifying [on-field] talent.”