Vargas, Park, Mauer conundrum

[DocBauer]

We have had various debates in different threads regarding Park and Mauer individually, now and going forward. And we've had various threads regarding the preferred makeup of the team going forward to close out 2016 and going in to 2017. But I'd like to focus on this one area: 1B/DH and the three men that would seem to be the principal targets going forward.

 

Park

 

Right now, Park is in Rochester, possibly getting healthy (as debated and discussed in another thread) and hopefully getting his groove back. I, amongst most I'm sure, was surprised, somewhat pleasantly so by the Twins aggressivenes,at his initial signing. I wasn't necessarily thrilled as I felt we had sufficient options at 1B and DH that I felt money and attentions should have been focuses elsewhere. But this is not a continuing debate as to the handling of Sano and whether the team should have or should not have acquired Park. They did. He's here. And while the transition hasn't gone smoothly, he has shown potential and a solid 1B glove. While his success in Korea in no way assures future success at the ML level, it indicates the POTENTIAL to succeed considering how good he was there. And again, we've seen glimpses. I don't believe he should be written off yet due to some early struggles and possible injury.

 

Mauer

 

Even with half a season left this year, I think we can aLloyd feel pretty comfortable that we know what Mauer is as a hitter. Unfortunately, age and injury have robbed him of his elite hitting ability. He is now a .260-.270 hitter with still decent OB ability, but zero speed or XB power (save a brief HR outbreak to close out May) As someone pointed out recently elsewhere, he is on pace currently for his lowest doubles output ever despite being healthy and playing on a regular basis. He remains signed for 2 more years and remains the hometown guy who is a face of the franchise. Some would say lightening rod.

 

I am in no way bashing Mauer. I'm simply stating facts as they are. We're he still a solid to good catcher, his disappointing numbers would still be valuable. But that ship has long sailed off in to the distant horizon. Nor am I advocating some ridiculous move back behind home plate. But at this point, while still a part of the 1B/DH situation, we have to ask what value he brings to the team? It could be argued that he's solid defensively at 1B and still provides some contact and OB ability as a #2 hitter. But I have to ask, if Buxton could improve enough the rest of this season and next to BEGIN to grow in to his ability, and hit at the top of the lineup, with a number of other options such as Nunez, Escobar and maybe Polanco, Mauer would fit best as what, a number 8 or 9 hitter along with whoever is catching?

 

1} Is it possible, despite being a competitive athlete, that Mauer would simply decide/realize he's not the player he was, is never going to be again, and would decide it's time to walk away before he grows even more frustrated and declines any further? Especially if the team were to buy him out and offer him a position within the organization?

 

2} Is it possible the Twins, especially if their is a new sheriff in town, would come to Mauer and strongly suggest it's time to move on and offer him said buyout?

 

3} Is it possible said new sheriff, with the blessings of ownership, would simply part ways with Mauer, while still on the financial hook, to move the team forward in the rebuild and offer Joe the chance to maybe hook on with a contending team as a veteran option?

 

Are these ideas really outlandish for a rebuilding team with other options available and getting younger?

 

Vargas

 

Vargas is the wildcard in all of this. He won't be the ripe old age of 26 until the first of August. He's more of a DH than a 1B, but he plays the position, has always worked hard on his defense from all accounts I've ever read, and is not as bad defensively as others I've seen over the years. To my best recollection, he was never rated as a Twins top 10 prospect anywhere, though he may have been entering 2015 if he hadn't exceeded the maximum number of AB during the season, but was always in the top 20 or honorable mention lists outside the top 10. But ignoring the odd SB or triple, I think we should take a moment to reflect on his milb numbers. The following is year-level-age and quad slash line with doubles and HR numbers.

 

2009 GCL 18 .257/ .369/ .404/ .773 7 DBLS 3 HR 109 AB

2010 GCL 19 .324/ .388/ .507/ .895 15 DBLS 3 HR 142 AB

2011 ELZ 20 .322/ .377/ .489/ .865 11 DBLS 6 HR 174 AB

2012 BEL 21 .318/ 419/ .610/ 1.030 10 DBLS 11 HR 154 AB (injured?)

2013 FTM 22 .267/ .344/ .468/ .813 33 DBLS 19 HR 457 AB

2014 NBR 23 .281/ .360/ .472/ .832 17 DBLS 17 HR 356 AB (Twins debut)

2015 AA/AAA 24 .283/ .414/ .496/ .910 9 DBLS 13 HR 244 AB

2016 ROC 25 .235/ .353/ .435/ .788 13 DBLS 14 HR 285 AB

 

While maybe not an elite prospect, those numbers show a young man who switch hits, can hit, gets OB, and produces power numbers. (I purposely didn't include RBI) He made steady progress up the Twins milb chain every year except for repeating the GCL, which is common. He was never old for any level he played at, and made his ML debut for the Twins in 2014 at the age of 23 despite never seeing AAA yet. And he was impressive.

 

.274/ .316/ .456/ .772 10 DBLS 9 HR in 215 AB

 

Considering his youth and no AAA time, regression in 2015 was perhaps expected. He wasn't impressive in 2015 with the Twins at .240/ .277/ .349/ .626 4 DBLS 5 HR before being sent back to AA and then later to Rochester. Still, we've seen worse lines, and as I recal, he was starting to hit better before his demotion/exile to milb. Despite a poor start to his 2016 season in Rochester, and subsequently low BA, he has gotten OB and provided power with a .788 OPS before his promotion.

 

I don't believe this young man should be dismissed in the discussion for the DH/1B position going forward with the Twins. Again, he won't be 26 until the first of August and has a track history in the minors of hitting, getting OB and producing quality numbers. But I also don't see room on the roster for all 3 of these guys.

 

What do you all see happening? How should/could this work for the Twins?

[nytwinsfan]

The obvious answer is platooning them. Park and Vargas against lefties and Mauer and half-time each of Park and Vargas against righties. Mauer is getting old and should realistically be taking more days off anyway. Especially with players like D. Santana and Nunez who can play outfield or infield if needed, it is fine to have a bench that consists of 1 catcher, 1 backup outfielder, 1 backup infielder and 1 DH/1B/Pinch Hitter.

[h2oface]

26. 4 years before the decline starts? I still consider young in baseball 23 and under. 24-29 is middle aged, and 30 and above is in decline. There are always exceptions, but young is thrown around far too generously in my opinion.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'd consider all 3 of these guys as fringe mlb players right now and beyond.

So, I'd say it's a problem in semantics only.

[Willihammer]

I don't know why Mauer shouldn't be able to hold his own at 3B. 

 

He can field balls at 1B no problem. And we know he can make the throw from 3rd to first no problem because its the same throw as home to 2nd.  That would give them some additional flexibility.

[Winston Smith]

Interesting that the TV studio guys talked about Mauer maybe waiving his no trade to have a chance to win a title. These guys don't say stuff that isn't cleared by St Peter and company. I doubt the front office would ok it with out first getting at least a tentative ok from Joe.

It actually would make a lot of sense, the Twins aren't going to be a WS contender in the next two years. They would likely have to include a bunch of money and not get much back but if Joe would ask for it I think they would try. Chances of happening 3.8%, just a guess.

[old nurse]

 

Interesting that the TV studio guys talked about Mauer maybe waiving his no trade to have a chance to win a title. These guys don't say stuff that isn't cleared by St Peter and company. I doubt the front office would ok it with out first getting at least a tentative ok from Joe.

It actually would make a lot of sense, the Twins aren't going to be a WS contender in the next two years. They would likely have to include a bunch of money and not get much back but if Joe would ask for it I think they would try. Chances of happening 3.8%, just a guess.

Mauer would certainly be an upgrade in Washington

 

[DocBauer]

I don't know why Mauer shouldn't be able to hold his own at 3B. 

 

He can field balls at 1B no problem. And we know he can make the throw from 3rd to first no problem because its the same throw as home to 2nd.  That would give them some additional flexibility.

And you may be right. I also wondered earlier in the season if he or Park, or both, shouldn't try a little OFalls just to increase roster flexability and create further lineup options. Of course, this was before Grossman, Buxton, Kepler and Rosario became our OF.

[DocBauer]

The obvious answer is platooning them. Park and Vargas against lefties and Mauer and half-time each of Park and Vargas against righties. Mauer is getting old and should realistically be taking more days off anyway. Especially with players like D. Santana and Nunez who can play outfield or infield if needed, it is fine to have a bench that consists of 1 catcher, 1 backup outfielder, 1 backup infielder and 1 DH/1B/Pinch Hitter.

I can't say I disagree with you. But I have to say, ideally feel better, roster wise, with 4 OF, the backup catcher, and a pair of versatile reserve infielders. I'm liking Polanco up in place of Santana, with Nunez/Escobar at SS and utility with one of them as maybe an emergency OF. These guys all have better bats than santana, and with the versatility of our OF, not sure we need more than 4 anyway. But it still leaves that darn crunch at 1B/DH.

[Rosterman]

I do think the Twins were surprised when they won the bidding on Park, a 29-year-old rookie who can hit home runs. There is still the hope that for a few years he will hit 100-150 for the Twins.

 

If Joe Mauer were Doug Mientkiewica and we had a hot-hitting rookies on the horizon, we would package him in a three team trade and probably get a player that would never ever play for the Twins.

 

Before the Park victory, the Twins were looking at Vrgas/Arcia possibly battling for DH duties with Sano in the mix. Now the Twins have Vargas and Park battling for DH duties with Sano in the mix and Trevor Plouffe a man without a home.

 

August will be telling, if the Twins find someone to take Plouffe...if they just let him get claimed with no compensation, or keep him back and try to do something in the off-season, in which he will demand a $10+ million contract that any other team would have to take on, compared to releasing him (even letting him go on waivers) and making it another team's problem.

 

Vargas is a case. One of those guys with lots of talent. Can he stay focused and controlled? Remember, there were rumors of the Twins trying to see him to the Far East for 2016. 

 

Would Mauer accept a trade to a contender.

 

Is Park a real deal?

 

Can Vargas produce consistently?

 

Do we want Trevor Plouffe in the organization long term?

 

What do we do with Sano?

 

Is Palka a potential first baseman of the near future?

[DocBauer]

No doubt Palka is an interesting option, 1B or otherwise. What I like about Vargas is his career milb OB ability. And while his 2016 promotion is still only a few games, he doesn't appear over matched at the plate the few times I've been able to watch him. Today, for instance, he battled for a BB to load them up for Kepler's grand slam against the Rangers. Most power hitters will SO some, even run streaky at times, but if he can continue good AB like that one and earn free passes, it makes him so much more effective and dangerous.

[jorgenswest]

It isn't a conundrum yet. Give Vargas regular play through August and Park a long stay in AAA. Hope for a conundrum.

[Old Twins Cap]

Sometimes, big guys take longer to mature, get their full coordination and put it all together.  Witness Ortiz and Randy Johnson. 

 

That may be the case with Vargas.  It sure gets tiring watching all the former Twins come to full potential around the league.

 

That said, there's a log jam and it's going to have to be worked through.  Smartly.

 

But, this last week, for the first time in many, many years, a discerning fan can see the inklings of what might be the next credible Twins core:  Kepler, Rosario, Buxton, Sano, Duffey, Gibson, Berrios, Stewart, Chargois, and more coming up the pipeline. 

 

Reminds me of 1984, hitting the ball all over the park on the road.  Sure, lousy record, but for once the kids make some noise.

[dgwills]

I don't see it as a big problem. It'd be nice to have a good bench bat every game. If the pitching staff gets worn down just throw one of them on the DL for a week. Not that I wouldn't take a trade for Mauer if it was an option.

[Monkeypaws]

I'm just glad after the recent cuts that Vargas is still here. Yeah, he's been hitting a ton since his recall, but he has always been a productive hitter on up the chain. Still only 25, and big time power.

 

Park is hurt, so it is good to have a guy like this step in as DH/1B alt. Palka waiting in the wings.

 

Joe is the one who doesn't fit the bill as a power corner infielder. Maybe with his arm he could move to the pen?