Trading Dozier Redux

[Brandon Warne]

 

The 2015 Twins were outscored by their opponents. They had the 5th worst pitching staff in the AL by xFIP and the 2nd worst offense, along with a below average defense. And on the intangibles side of the equation, the guy most often credited (rightly or wrongly) with singlehandedly turning around the Twins last year is now retired.

 

If anyone is ignoring what happened in 2015, it's the people (including those in the Twins' front office) taken completely by surprise by the Twins being awful this year.

 

Few people foresaw 100+ losses, but the groundwork for 90 losses was laid while Twins' management took a postseason victory lap to celebrate breaking the .500 mark instead of addressing the team's glaring weaknesses.

 

These are all points I made last year. I think they were about a 72-75 win team. And yet people tell me I wasn't and am not negative enough. It was not a good team last year. 

[LaBombo]

 

These are all points I made last year. I think they were about a 72-75 win team. And yet people tell me I wasn't and am not negative enough. It was not a good team last year. 

Oh. Ok.

 

And depending on how you feel about major league baseball as purely an exhibition rather than a competition (so please, no wagering if you're reading this, Mr. Rose), you could argue that anyone still paying any attention at all to the Twins is not being negative enough.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Oh. Ok.

 

Sorry, that wasn't meant to be negative toward you. I just didn't think the team was good last year and I guess I'm kind of tired of being ripped for not being negative enough about the team.

[LaBombo]

 

Sorry, that wasn't meant to be negative toward you. I just didn't think the team was good last year and I guess I'm kind of tired of being ripped for not being negative enough about the team.

Fair enough. After a half season of watching a thoroughly inept Twins team fail to claw its way above a .333 win percentage, it sometimes feels like anything short of egging the exterior facade of Target isn't negative enough, so please don't take it personally if that's possible.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

These are all points I made last year. I think they were about a 72-75 win team. And yet people tell me I wasn't and am not negative enough. It was not a good team last year. 

Sure, I think a lot of us agreed the Twins were +7-8 wins over their talent level in 2015... But it wasn't unreasonable to expect enough young players to step up that the Twins would match their 83 win total, which is where I had them pegged for this season.

 

Now, obviously not everyone was going to step forward but it was pretty unreasonable to expect no one to step forward, either... But that's what happened.

 

Of course, some of that is on the coaching staff and front office. For example, neither Meyer nor Berrios were even given a chance to step forward. You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Sure, I think a lot of us agreed the Twins were +7-8 wins over their talent level in 2015... But it wasn't unreasonable to expect enough young players to step up that the Twins would match their 83 win total, which is where I had them pegged for this season.

 

Now, obviously not everyone was going to step forward but it was pretty unreasonable to expect no one to step forward, either... But that's what happened.

 

Of course, some of that is on the coaching staff and front office. For example, neither Meyer nor Berrios were even given a chance to step forward. You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

 

Not to mention Chargois. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Not to mention Chargois. 

Yep, another guy who wasn't given a legitimate shot in a role the Twins badly needed to fill.

[Brandon Warne]

 

Sure, I think a lot of us agreed the Twins were +7-8 wins over their talent level in 2015... But it wasn't unreasonable to expect enough young players to step up that the Twins would match their 83 win total, which is where I had them pegged for this season.

 

Now, obviously not everyone was going to step forward but it was pretty unreasonable to expect no one to step forward, either... But that's what happened.

 

Of course, some of that is on the coaching staff and front office. For example, neither Meyer nor Berrios were even given a chance to step forward. You miss 100% of the shots you don't take.

 

Oh absolutely. There are a couple of schools of thought. Even if the team wasn't as good as its record indicated last year, there was room for optimism. All the important players were brought back, with Park usurping Hunter as pretty much the only offensive mainstay. It wasn't unreasonable to expect him to outperform Torii and theoretically he still could. 

 

But I also said the team could win fewer games and in theory still be "better" than they were last year.

 

And then this happened. Unreal.

[Brandon Warne]

 

 

And depending on how you feel about major league baseball as purely an exhibition rather than a competition (so please, no wagering if you're reading this, Mr. Rose), you could argue that anyone still paying any attention at all to the Twins is not being negative enough.

 

Therein lies my frustration with how hard I work at covering the team with little to no interaction off that. Hard to imagine how Mr. Berardino feels in that vein.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Therein lies my frustration with how hard I work at covering the team with little to no interaction off that. Hard to imagine how Mr. Berardino feels in that vein.

 

I imagine it is very hard to cover this team right now, both in interacting with the team, and the lack of interest in your work from the public.....very tough spot for sure. 

[Craig Arko]

I think if anyone told me I wasn't being negative enough they'd receive a suggestion on planning a vacation to the infernal regions.

 

Worry about your own attitude, people.

[bird]

 

Yep, another guy who wasn't given a legitimate shot in a role the Twins badly needed to fill.

 

 

Although I think we're forgetting that Chargois had a grand total of 33 IP in AA last year as he regenerated, had pitched a grand total of 16 innings cumulatively in the previous 3 years, and wasn't exhibiting great command of his pitches early on in 2016. So, we can quibble about him not being called up a couple months earlier than he was and then given a chance to stay, but this is a season that was lost after 8 games, meaning his presence here would not have changed things. His development may have benefitted as a result of the extra time in AAA, who knows? This guy had very few innings in the low minors, and it seems ironic that we've been complaining about prospects languishing at the lower levels and then being rushed through or past AAA. I realize Chargois is a special case, but he's an example of why every prospect is his own unique case.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Fair enough. After a half season of watching a thoroughly inept Twins team fail to claw its way above a .333 win percentage, it sometimes feels like anything short of egging the exterior facade of Target isn't negative enough, so please don't take it personally if that's possible.

Completely unrelated, are we still meeting up at 2 AM tonight?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Although I think we're forgetting that Chargois had a grand total of 33 IP in AA last year as he regenerated, had pitched a grand total of 16 innings cumulatively in the previous 3 years, and wasn't exhibiting great command of his pitches early on in 2016. So, we can quibble about him not being called up a couple months earlier than he was and then given a chance to stay, but this is a season that was lost after 8 games, meaning his presence here would not have changed things. His development may have benefitted as a result of the extra time in AAA, who knows? This guy had very few innings in the low minors, and it seems ironic that we've been complaining about prospects languishing at the lower levels and then being rushed through or past AAA. I realize Chargois is a special case, but he's an example of why every prospect is his own unique case.

 

I don't complain about RPs spending too little time down.....they are inconsistent and prone to injury. I would move them faster (as a group) than any other group. As pitchers, they also have less to learn, since they are likely relying on the skills they already have.

 

It isn't that he wasn't brought up, it was how he was brought up and then cast aside right away. I can certainly understand the argument for giving him more time in AAA......and it's not like they haven't found ways to clear 40 man spots since his call up.....so their were options about how he was used.

[wsnydes]

 

Half assed rebuild? They signed Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia while putting together some decent drafts. Regardless, you can't rebuild now with where Sano and Buxton are. You need to be in talent acquisition mode, i.e. actually doing something in FA to surround your young players while they're cheap.

 

Tearing it down now would be.....not wise. Rip down anything not attached to the wall, sure....but rebuild? NO.

Agree somewhat, perhaps you haven't conveyed your complete thought.  Now and even next offseason is not the time to amass expensive FA talent.  That should come in the next offseason at the earliest to fill needs that haven't been filled in-house.  I do agree that a complete tear down is not what is needed.  They have young talent and more on the way, so now is the time to amass more young talent.

 

They're at the point where they basically unload the vets they can for something that will help them in the next 2-4 years.  A total rebuild should have happened 4 years ago.  The young talent they did bring in is approaching the bigs now, so the objective should be to clear room for them when they're ready.  If you have to sign a AAAA player or decline phase vet to fill the gap for a year or so, fine.  A plus to that would be that you could potentially flip them too.

[wsnydes]

 

I imagine it is very hard to cover this team right now, both in interacting with the team, and the lack of interest in your work from the public.....very tough spot for sure. 

That has to be tough.  In that vein, not that I really want to defend them, but I have to imagine calling these games as the TV/radio guys is borderline torture.  Watching it at times is, so it stands to reason being "forced" to endure it must be worse...even if you're getting paid to do so.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Although I think we're forgetting that Chargois had a grand total of 33 IP in AA last year as he regenerated, had pitched a grand total of 16 innings cumulatively in the previous 3 years, and wasn't exhibiting great command of his pitches early on in 2016. So, we can quibble about him not being called up a couple months earlier than he was and then given a chance to stay, but this is a season that was lost after 8 games, meaning his presence here would not have changed things. His development may have benefitted as a result of the extra time in AAA, who knows? This guy had very few innings in the low minors, and it seems ironic that we've been complaining about prospects languishing at the lower levels and then being rushed through or past AAA. I realize Chargois is a special case, but he's an example of why every prospect is his own unique case.

I don't fault the Twins for opening the season with Chargois in Rochester but I fault them (a lot) for calling the guy up three weeks ago, putting him out there for one appearance (that wasn't even a full inning), and then demoting him again.

 

Doubly so when the MLB bullpen is, to be blunt, ****ing horrible.

 

The way Berrios, Meyer, and Chargois were handled is beyond the pale. It's not only absurd, it's unbelievable a professional front office would handle young prospects so haphazardly.

[LaBombo]

 

Completely unrelated, are we still meeting up at 2 AM tonight?

I have literally no idea what you're talking about.

 

Corner of 6th and Carew, 2 doz. XLarger or Jumbo, wear dark clothes.

[SwainZag]

 

I don't fault the Twins for opening the season with Chargois in Rochester but I fault them (a lot) for calling the guy up three weeks ago, putting him out there for one appearance (that wasn't even a full inning), and then demoting him again.

 

Doubly so when the MLB bullpen is, to be blunt, ****ing horrible.

 

The way Berrios, Meyer, and Chargois were handled is beyond the pale. It's not only absurd, it's unbelievable a professional front office would handle young prospects so haphazardly.

 

Has Berrios really been handled THAT badly?  He got 4 starts, had control issues, got shelled in his last start and was sent back to AAA.  He got a taste.  He will be back.  Sure, personally I probably would have given him a little more time, but I don't think it was that bad.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Has Berrios really been handled THAT badly?  He got 4 starts, had control issues, got shelled in his last start and was sent back to AAA.  He got a taste.  He will be back.  Sure, personally I probably would have given him a little more time, but I don't think it was that bad.

Berrios wasn't handled as badly as the other two but I still feel he was mismanaged. The guy had all of four starts.

 

The first start was bad but whatever, it's his first start.

 

The second start was acceptable.

 

The third start was questionable.

 

The fourth start was disastrous.

 

He pitched all of 15.0 innings in Minnesota this season. The day he was demoted, the Twins were 10-27 and, for all intents and purposes, out of the postseason. The rest of the Twins pitching staff was either injured or various shades of awful so it's not like Berrios was forced out of the rotation. I mean, come on... Pat Dean.

 

If you're going to call up a borderline elite prospect, he gets more than two weeks and 15.0 IP to prove himself. You give that guy at least a month, preferrably six weeks, to settle down and make adjustments. No less than 8-10 starts to let the coaching staff settle him down and help him mature into an MLB player.

 

While Berrios wasn't as badly mismanaged as Meyer or Chargois, the way he was handled is indicative of the problems with the front office and management this season.

[Rosterman]

The handling of Berrios wasn't horrible. Usually you get called up when a guy on the DL, you might get 3-4 starts. Or, better yet, you are called up to pitch that doubleheader game and sent right out.

 

And, no matter who you are, your first time on the big stage can make you nervous. 

 

Chargolis was nervous. Yes, it is the same distance from the mound to the batter's box. You have to have your best stop popping. You only need to get three out. No one has really s before.

 

Meyer was a different story. You are making him a starter, you bring him up and throw him out there in relief, then sit him, then ask him to start. Plus, you have to worry that these guys will overthrow (like they do early in spring training) and screw up their arms.

 

You can cycle thru relief pitchers above and beyond your closer, a setup guy from each side, and you wan to have a good idea on how your back-of-the-bullpen mop-up guy will fare. Otherwise, three spots are interchangable, especially f you have a solid rotation that will more often than not get you towards the 7th inning.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Chargolis was nervous. Yes, it is the same distance from the mound to the batter's box. You have to have your best stop popping. You only need to get three out. No one has really s before.

Sure he was nervous. Most guys are in their first MLB appearance.

 

It would have been nice to see how he looked in a second MLB appearance.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The handling of Berrios wasn't horrible. Usually you get called up when a guy on the DL, you might get 3-4 starts. Or, better yet, you are called up to pitch that doubleheader game and sent right out.

Berrios' spot was filled by Pat Dean.

 

Pat Dean.

 

On the day Dean started, the Twins were 10-31 going into the game.

 

Again.

 

Pat Dean.

[Vanimal46]

 

Berrios' spot was filled by Pat Dean.

 

Pat Dean.

 

On the day Dean started, the Twins were 10-31 going into the game.

 

Again.

 

Pat Dean.

Dropping hints about what you want for your birthday this year? 

http://i.ebayimg.com/03/!CC)DBtQBWk~$(KGrHqF,!hsE0FYse5uDBNMO0jHWCw~~_35.JPG

[Brandon Warne]

 

Berrios' spot was filled by Pat Dean.

 

Pat Dean.

 

On the day Dean started, the Twins were 10-31 going into the game.

 

Again.

 

Pat Dean.

 

I don't think that's the right way of looking at it.

 

Not "is Jose Berrios as good as Pat Dean" but "is Jose Berrios as good as Jose Berrios needs to be to actually help this team?"

 

There's no way you could have justified giving him another start after getting crushed by the Tigers. 

[Brandon Warne]

Then again, I might be the wrong person to speak. I don't think the bullpen has been effing horrible.

 

They're finally striking people out, not really walking anybody and right now are 13th in xFIP across MLB.

 

Pretty much everyone out there is doing a decent job, as was Buddy Boshers, whom I would have kept up quite frankly.

 

[LaBombo]

 

 

I think if anyone told me I wasn't being negative enough they'd receive a suggestion on planning a vacation to the infernal regions.

 

Worry about your own attitude, people.

http://www.wolfgnards.com/media/blogs/photos/celebrities/gb-mood-slime.jpg

 

Hold on, let's rinse off the Pink Slime of Twins Negativity.  I'm not telling anyone how they should feel about the Twins' season or suggesting there's a right or wrong way to feel.

 

All I'm saying is that the most negative poster on TD and the most positive one are just differing shades of rose-colored Twins viewing goggles. All it takes to get on board with that is accepting the idea that ignoring a sports team is more negative than ripping it.

 

If you're down with that, the rest is easy, especially for us fans of baseball metrics. It's easy because we have a statistic, and here it goes: the ratings say that out of every 10 fans watching the Twins broadcasts 5 years ago, 6 have stopped watching.

 

So again, while I'm not telling people how to feel or judging, I'm entirely comfortable with my point of view that anyone still watching games or posting on the forum or listening in the car is less negative than the average fan, who has GIVEN UP on the Twins.

 

That minority includes me. My assessment of what the Twins did or didn't do to get into this mess or of their odds of climbing out of it may be more negative than the average TD poster, maybe even waaay more, but compared to the average Twins fan, I'm a raging font of pro-Twins passion, simply because I actually still give a crap about the Twins. And so is anyone else who even reads TD, let alone posts.

 

Those posts may be grumpier than usual, and so might some of us, but we're still here and getting along, (albeit sometimes with a bit of help - thanks, mods!) and giving a crap about the Twins. So enjoy TD, even the parts of it that call for Ryan's and/or Molitor's heads. At the rate things are going, by the time the season's over we might be the only people in MN still positive enough about the Twins to rip'em.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I don't think that's the right way of looking at it.

 

Not "is Jose Berrios as good as Pat Dean" but "is Jose Berrios as good as Jose Berrios needs to be to actually help this team?"

 

There's no way you could have justified giving him another start after getting crushed by the Tigers. 

You could easily justify giving him another start after the Tigers because it was his fourth start.

 

My point isn't that Jose Berrios helped the team after four starts, it's that you couldn't accurately judge whether he could help the team after four starts.

 

And on a terrible team already out of the postseason picture in mid-May, a guy like Jose Berrios deserves more than four starts to prove himself. It's not like Jose Berrios would be permanently ruined if you ran him out there for 7-8 starts and hell, he might actually adjust and become a contributor to the MLB squad.

 

But, again, Berrios is just one guy. If the Twins had done that only to Berrios this season, I'd probably say "meh" and get on with my day. But they have jerked around most of their young players at one point in the season: Chargois, Meyer, Berrios, Kepler, Polanco, Arcia, Buxton... One guy you can explain away but when that number crosses half a dozen, it's a major problem.

[alarp33]

"No way" a 10-31 team could justify giving a rookie who had dominated AAA in ~20 starts another start in the Majors? LOL.  

 

Michael Fulmer had a ~6.5 ERA through 4 starts for a team with real playoff hopes, they were able to justify him getting more starts, I'd say it worked out ok for them

[Brandon Warne]

 

You could easily justify giving him another start after the Tigers because it was his fourth start.

 

My point isn't that Jose Berrios helped the team after four starts, it's that you couldn't accurately judge whether he could help the team after four starts.

 

He had an OPS against of over 1100 and an ERA of over 10.00. I think it was pretty clear another start would not have gone well.