What happens when Gibson comes back?

[bluechipper]

Fact check:  Berrios has a 6.28 ERA (and leads all Twins starters with a 5.94 FIP).  He is more "terrible" than either Hughes or Nolasco, if you count with ERA/FIP.   If you count otherwise, eg. "potential", Meyer should be in the conversation as well.

Berrios has made three starts, and two of those were affected by poor weather. He's striking out well over a batter per inning. I think these are some facts also worth mentioning.

[bluechipper]

Yes, the same Tommy Milone that was tendered a contract this winter, assuring Trevor May would not be given a shot at the rotation, and contributed to Duffey and Berrios starting in AAA

 

And come on - Tommy Milone was on a 1 year $4 million deal... Phil Hughes today, is still owed something like $47 million... you can't really think that's an apples to apples comparison?

Milone has been solid for years before a rough start this year, and the Twins were quick to get him out of the rotation. Hughes and Nolasco have been bad for multiple years now, so putting one in the bullpen for a while is probably the plan.

[bluechipper]

Again, he has a 6.28 ERA. He walks 5 batters per nine innings. And though he strikes out more than 11 per nine innings, his FIP is nearly 6. He has hardly dominated. 

 

I personally think he should stay and be allowed to develop here. But the Twins would hardly be out of their minds sending him down for a bit longer.

 

They would be right at the "out of their minds" level if they sent Berrios back down for the reason of keeping spots for Nolasco and Hughes.

[alarp33]

 

Milone has been solid for years before a rough start this year, and the Twins were quick to get him out of the rotation. Hughes and Nolasco have been bad for multiple years now, so putting one in the bullpen for a while is probably the plan.

 

Bad for multiple years, and yet still in the rotation because they have big contracts, and Milone didn't... the example you used is kind of my point.  

[Mike Sixel]

I don't know, I no longer have any confidence in my ability to predict the Twins' moves at this scale.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Milone has been solid for years before a rough start this year, and the Twins were quick to get him out of the rotation. Hughes and Nolasco have been bad for multiple years now, so putting one in the bullpen for a while is probably the plan.

Despite being "solid for years", Milone was optioned by Oakland in 2014 and again by the Twins in 2015.  He had a history of being demoted, even by the Twins, before this season.  Not so for Hughes or Nolasco. Which could be a function of their contracts too, but in any case, should indicate that they are not equally movable pieces.

[magiklair]

 

It's the most logical move. Hughes cannot survive in the rotation with a 91mph fastball.

 

Move him to the pen and cross your fingers that 91mph fastball turns into a 93mph fastball. Hughes can not only survive at 93mph, he can thrive.

 

Yes you could try him in the bullpen. If that doesn't pan out, a straight out release wouldn't be the worst idea.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Meyer hasn't pitched hardly at all of late (shoulder strain). I think he's going to have to get back into the swing of things in AAA.  May, I'd agree, but I don't (unfortunately) see the Twins doing that.

Well, Meyer was buried and then quickly demoted before the report shoulder fatigue, so it's probably not the reason they'd hold him back now.  I'd be surprised if he was recalled again after a Rochester tune-up.

 

I'd love to hear a Twins official take on Trevor May right now.  They always gave lip service to him remaining a starter long-term, and I don't think we'll ever find a more perfect opportunity to try him back there, with one starter on the DL and one more needing a move to the pen himself.

[Homer Hanky]

TRADE Ricky... 

 

OR

 

PHIL to the pen

 

 

[Mike Sixel]

If I was GM:

 

Certain moves:

Berrios is up all year

Duffey is up until he proves he isn't good for like 5 games in a row

Hughes to the bullpen, not sure who leaves. Groom him for late innings, short stints.

Promote Gosalves to AA. Keep him in mind for MLB time if he dominates there ( I don't expect him to, though, but will hope he does)

 

Probably moves:

Try to trade Nolasco for almost anything. I mean that, I just want the roster spot in about 4 weeks.

Move May to AAA to start for 5 games.

Whomever is better in AAA, May, or Meyer, comes up when Nolasco is gone.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Starting from the original post, last sentence: "I wonder how TR will justify the move now that its clear we should be using this season to test out the new kids."

 

So, would we be applying this to everyone on the roster? Or are we excluding Arcia and Sano and their current production? Arcia has a .227 BA, Sano .229. OPS for both, average and below.

 

84 and 152 PA's respectively. SSS or in other words: "IMHO, still early for that." That's what I was trying to point out.

 

Are you getting this now? If we're judging everyone the same, at this point in the season, Arcia and Sano would be considered. And if they ARE included, there are in fact replacements available: Kepler and Buxton.

 

Sorry if this confuses you.

I understood your point from your second post. Leaving it up to the "kids" would inherently not judge everyone the same.

 

I'd love to see Kepler and Buxton up, but not at the expense of Arcia and Sano. If we were giving the kids the reins, you'd cut Mastro, trade Plouffe, bring up Kep and Buck to play every day and let Arcia and Rosario rotate through, while moving Sano to third.

 

You're gonna have serious rookie related brain farts and cold streaks, but you give the kids a long leash regardless of results because that's what you committed to, to gain big steps forward in the future.

[bluechipper]

Despite being "solid for years", Milone was optioned by Oakland in 2014 and again by the Twins in 2015.  He had a history of being demoted, even by the Twins, before this season.  Not so for Hughes or Nolasco. Which could be a function of their contracts too, but in any case, should indicate that they are not equally movable pieces.

Phil Hughes was put in the bullpen for a while just last year if I'm remembering right. I'm assuming that's where he ends up pretty soon this year.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Try to trade Nolasco for almost anything. I mean that, I just want the roster spot in about 4 weeks.

Move May to AAA to start for 5 games.

Whomever is better in AAA, May, or Meyer, comes up when Nolasco is gone.

Why wait?  Nolasco's not becoming meaningfully more trade-able in 4 weeks.  If you just want his rotation spot, just move him to the pen today, or use his next few starts to stretch out May at the MLB level.

 

And you still have Dean and Kintzler on the 25-man who could be painlessly switched out when Gibson returns, you want to promote Meyer, etc.  Well, I guess Kintzler is out of options, but it shouldn't be a great pain to expose him to waivers.

 

I think Nolasco might still have a place among this team's top 12-13 pitchers.  Not quite enough health or more prospects knocking down the door for me to cut him yet, but I would have no problem with stashing him in the pen to get starting looks at May and Meyer.

[alarp33]

 

Phil Hughes was put in the bullpen for a while just last year if I'm remembering right. I'm assuming that's where he ends up pretty soon this year.

 

He was on the DL, and activated in mid September... he pitched I believe 2 games in relief before the season ended, as he wasn't stretched out to start... not quite the same thing most of us are advocating for - a permanent move to the Pen

[jimbo92107]

Hughes to the pen. He's a power pitcher who's lost the zap on his fastball. His off-speed stuff isn't good enough to win games, so his only option is to try regaining a few mph in the bull pen. I have my doubts even if he does become a reliever. I'm not sure Hughes can bring it much over 90 anymore. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Phil Hughes was put in the bullpen for a while just last year if I'm remembering right. I'm assuming that's where he ends up pretty soon this year.

Mainly due to injury -- he missed over a month of action right before that.

 

I hope you are right, but I think Hughes has at least 3 weeks left in the rotation (assuming that's how long it takes Gibson to come back, nobody gets hurt in between, and Berrios has improved by then).  He's got a much longer leash than Milone.  Meyer alone will not be enough to bounce Hughes from the rotation.

[bluechipper]

Mainly due to injury -- he missed over a month of action right before that.

 

I hope you are right, but I think Hughes has at least 3 weeks left in the rotation (assuming that's how long it takes Gibson to come back, nobody gets hurt in between, and Berrios has improved by then).  He's got a much longer leash than Milone.  Meyer alone will not be enough to bounce Hughes from the rotation.

Alright, but that's pretty much what I'm saying. I'd like Meyer to replace him if he were healthy, but I'm predicting Hughes is out of the rotation when Gibson comes back. I'm disagreeing with those saying the Twins are going to send Berrios back down when Gibson is ready. That seems highly unlikely to me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Fair enough.  Although if Berrios and Hughes still have comparable ERAs when Gibson returns, I wouldn't be shocked if Berrios was sent down.  Or maybe they'd carry 6 starters, perhaps even skipping Berrios at times to limit his innings.

 

I think they really don't want to send Hughes to the pen.  Not only did they give him that contract extension, but I think they got him on his original fair deal by promising him a rotation spot (a promise which the extension backed up financially).  Hughes is owed twice the guaranteed money of Nolasco, and we saw the hand-wringing the team did with Nolasco's rotation spot back in March.  $13.2 mil in each of 2017, 2018, and 2019.

[HitInAPinch]

 

"Fairly short sample size"?  Phil Hughes has 196 career games started, 1122 IP, and a career 109 ERA- (100 is average, higher is worse) as a starter.  He's at 119 since the beginning of last year (32 GS).  He has been better than 99 ERA- as a starter in exactly one season in his entire career:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2016&month=0&season1=2006&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=7450&sort=1,d

 

Also, better than 98 FIP- once, and better than 100 xFIP- once.  All the same magical 2014 season, as you may have guessed.

 

I don't necessarily think he'll be quite this bad (158 ERA- so far in 2016) going forward, but he has a pretty large sample of demonstrated mediocrity as a starting pitcher.  A decision to shift him to the pen right now would not be based on a "fairly short sample size."

 

I wasn't typing at all about Hughes.  Not unless I replied to the wrong quote   

[Otto von Ballpark]

I wasn't typing at all about Hughes. Not unless I replied to the wrong quote

The original post you replied to said "I'd like to see Hughes to the bullpen or the DL but realistically I see Berries getting sent back down."

 

Who were you referring to, with the small sample comment?

[Kwak]

Carnac says: "Berrios to Rochester, NY tonight."

[Thrylos]

I think that Berrios' "performance" today sealed the answer to this question...

[Rosterman]

Yep, Berrios might get one more chance. But this didn't help matters. But still, at least another couple of names could go on that Rochester shuttle with him.

 

Then, again. Does this further the issue of who didn't see the potential of this happening. And why do you let a guy walk half the batters he is facing. Give up more hits than outs. Who's watching the game here!

[alarp33]

Milone gave up 2 runs in 7 innings tonight... The question right now might be who makes Saturday's start, Milone or Berrios

[Linus]

Berrios has stuff but he has given no indication so far that he is ready for the big leagues.

[Thrylos]

 

Milone gave up 2 runs in 7 innings tonight... The question right now might be who makes Saturday's start, Milone or Berrios

 

In Rochester?  Dean should make it in the bigs...

[lukeduke1980]

 

I know it's been talked about a bit but it's going to be interesting to see what the Twins do when Gibson gets off the DL. I'd like to see Hughes to the bullpen or the DL but realistically I see Berries getting sent back down.

I wonder how TR will justify the move now that its clear we should be using this season to test out the new kids.

Comrade try posting tomorrow 'What if Mauer stops hitting?'

[alarp33]

In Rochester?  Dean should make it in the bigs...

I guess he's an option as well. Great game tonight, too bad his manager sent him out for the 7th when he had no business still being in that game

[FormerMinnasotan]

Well, I have to admit even as a fan of Berrios I am feeling negative towards how good he can be. I mean okay he has only 4 MLB starts, but after 4 starts last year Tyler Duffey showed real promise and improvement, Berrios has shown some glimpses of improvement but has yet to have that one game where everything comes together. Why? Berrios supposedly is as competitive as Duffey with a better pitch selection as Duffey and has been praised for his work ethic. So why is Berrios pitching so scared? Damn, I wanted to see him pitch the rest of the season, but at best he probably won't be back until the end of July. Dang, because we need an ace and he was (or is) the closest we can have as an ace (if we look at his potential). What has gone so wrong? I expected struggles, not a 10.70 ERA.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd like to take back my berrios stays up all year post.....