Will the Twins hit 70 wins?

[gocgo]

I know, I know...this sounds like a another frustrated Twins fan lining up to beat up management for putting a bad team on the field...fire Molly...fire everyone...clean house...blah, blah, blah.

 

It's not!  I'm serious.  I'm a numbers guy and the math doesn't lie.  We are 7-18 with 137 games left.  IF we win 50 percent of those remaining games, we will finish with 75-76 wins.  So, is this team capable of going .500 the rest of the way?  Keep in mind that, barring a miraculous May/June, we will be out of contention at the trade deadline, September call ups will come (could be good, could be bad).

 

IF we go 62-75 the rest of the way or 13 games under .500, there we are...69 wins.

 

I can't conceive it, but maybe I'm just an unrealistic optimist.  At this point, as I look a the numbers, it looks like I may need to come to terms with the possibility of winning less that 70 games.  

 

Someone talk me down off the ledge.

[70charger]

They had a super rough stretch there, but teams usually have hot streaks too, to kind of even things out. There's no guarantee that that'll happen, but there's also no guarantee that they'll continue to be worse than their statistical expectations, which they have been so far.

 

I'm guessing that they'll hit somewhere right around 75 wins this year. I doubt it'll be below 70.

[gunnarthor]

They'll win more than 70 - not that that should be the goal.  

[JaleelWhite FanClub]

No need for the first paragraph. Any Twins fan is well within their right to complain and rip on the owner, the FO, the manager, and the players given this pathetic start.

 

You're right, 70 wins is totally dependent on where they stand at the trade deadline. Although Mr. Risk Averse has had 4 years to "blow things up" or rebuild, but always failed to go the whole way.

 

If the Twins are still a bottom-5 team in the majors by June, I would think a smart GM would trade as many veteran players as possible for whatever he can get. This would be especially fitting this year given how many young players are already on the team (the roster won't look like a AAA team for the second half and will remain competitive) and the number of top prospects in Rochester (Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Walker, Berrios, Meyer, Duffey, maybe one of the catchers in AA) that have earned the right to get some time in the majors.

 

But I'm not holding my breath that Ryan will actually do this.

[laloesch]

 

No need for the first paragraph. Any Twins fan is well within their right to complain and rip on the owner, the FO, the manager, and the players given this pathetic start.

 

You're right, 70 wins is totally dependent on where they stand at the trade deadline. Although Mr. Risk Averse has had 4 years to "blow things up" or rebuild, but always failed to go the whole way.

 

If the Twins are still a bottom-5 team in the majors by June, I would think a smart GM would trade as many veteran players as possible for whatever he can get. This would be especially fitting this year given how many young players are already on the team (the roster won't look like a AAA team for the second half and will remain competitive) and the number of top prospects in Rochester (Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Walker, Berrios, Meyer, Duffey, maybe one of the catchers in AA) that have earned the right to get some time in the majors.

 

But I'm not holding my breath that Ryan will actually do this.

 

That would be my hope as well.  if this team is still stinking it up by the deadline, put up the "FIRE SALE" sign for heavens sake.  Enough of the partial rebuild mentality and go full bore.

 

Hughes, Santana, Nolasco, Gibson, Milone and Perkins (if he's healthy): for sale $10 each.  

 

Dozier, Plouffe and Suzuki: for sale bag of baseballs or best offer. 

 

In all seriousness it's pointless to move forward with this group of veterans if they can't win period.     

[Vanimal46]

It really depends on where the team is in June/July... If this team is 10+ games out of a division or WC spot, then I'd hope that TR does what the Tigers did last year and start trading away some of the veterans on this team... 

[laloesch]

 

I know, I know...this sounds like a another frustrated Twins fan lining up to beat up management for putting a bad team on the field...fire Molly...fire everyone...clean house...blah, blah, blah.

 

It's not!  I'm serious.  I'm a numbers guy and the math doesn't lie.  We are 7-18 with 137 games left.  IF we win 50 percent of those remaining games, we will finish with 75-76 wins.  So, is this team capable of going .500 the rest of the way?  Keep in mind that, barring a miraculous May/June, we will be out of contention at the trade deadline, September call ups will come (could be good, could be bad).

 

IF we go 62-75 the rest of the way or 13 games under .500, there we are...69 wins.

 

I can't conceive it, but maybe I'm just an unrealistic optimist.  At this point, as I look a the numbers, it looks like I may need to come to terms with the possibility of winning less that 70 games.  

 

Someone talk me down off the ledge.

 

I think they'll be right around 70 unless we see a big turnaround later in the summer.

[laloesch]

 

The number of wins is irrelevant; who plays is the important thing. IF the Twins REALLY commits to giving the young guys s real shot I don't care if they win 65 or 75 games. I think the worst thing they could do is play mediocre vets a lot to make 75 wins instead of giving a real shot to younger/newer guys.  We also need to get the manager on board with that strategy. Molitor seems to have a tough time benching vets for younger players.  

 

 

Agreed.  I think everyone has noticed Molitor's managing techniques.  In some ways' he's cut from the same cloth that Gardy was.  Doesn't like to give time to young players over veterans and not necessarily good ones at that.  That's a problem for a rebuilding team.  If you don't give the youngsters a chance you never figure out what kind of hand you've been dealt.

[nicksaviking]

Hey, everyone knows what happened last time both the Twins and Braves finished last in their divisions!

 

They got really high draft picks the following year.

[tobi0040]

 

It really depends on where the team is in June/July... If this team is 10+ games out of a division or WC spot, then I'd hope that TR does what the Tigers did last year and start trading away some of the veterans on this team... 

 

I would love to see the Twins do what the 2014 Astros did and run out a very young team and let the kids play.   If it is June first and we are 15+ games out, why  not.

 

Berrios, May, and Meyer in the rotation.  Sano at 3B.  Buxton at CF.  Rosario and Kepler, etc.   If they trade any veterans at all, it will likely be August deadline like usual.  Too late to get value and to make room for young players

[laloesch]

 

I would love to see the Twins do what the 2014 Astros did and run out a very young team and let the kids play.   If it is June first and we are 15+ games out, why  not.

 

Berrios, May, and Meyer in the rotation.  Sano at 3B.  Buxton at CF.  Rosario and Kepler, etc.   If they trade any veterans at all, it will likely be August deadline like usual.  Too late to get value and to make room for young players

 

Agreed.  Dittos on the rotation.  I think Buxton needs time in AAA though.  Kid is flat out not ready for the majors.  

[Craig Arko]

 

Hey, everyone knows what happened last time both the Twins and Braves finished last in their divisions!

 

They got really high draft picks the following year.

I'm banking on this. Otherwise, the actual number of wins a non-playoff team has doesn't really phase me.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Hey, everyone knows what happened last time both the Twins and Braves finished last in their divisions!

 

They got really high draft picks the following year.

David McCarty, here we come!

[mazeville]

 

I would love to see the Twins do what the 2014 Astros did and run out a very young team and let the kids play.   If it is June first and we are 15+ games out, why  not.

 

Berrios, May, and Meyer in the rotation.  Sano at 3B.  Buxton at CF.  Rosario and Kepler, etc.   If they trade any veterans at all, it will likely be August deadline like usual.  Too late to get value and to make room for young players

 

This. Absolutely this.

 

If the Twins are going to lose, lose young. Give Buxton another month or two in AAA and let him fix his swing but get him up the rest of the year. Trade out a couple of veterans for some prospects. Nolasco might be rebuilding some of his value. Maybe Phil Hughes or Ervin Santana have some trade value still. Trade Trevor Plouffe. There's no point in keeping veterans on a team that's going to lose 90 games. And your future is in your young players who need to develop. 

[Marzen2016]

Twins are going to go 20-8 in May to be above 500 by the end of the month. We need someone to be positive on these forums!

[tobi0040]

 

This. Absolutely this.

 

If the Twins are going to lose, lose young. Give Buxton another month or two in AAA and let him fix his swing but get him up the rest of the year. Trade out a couple of veterans for some prospects. Nolasco might be rebuilding some of his value. Maybe Phil Hughes or Ervin Santana have some trade value still. Trade Trevor Plouffe. There's no point in keeping veterans on a team that's going to lose 90 games. And your future is in your young players who need to develop. 

 

Yeah, but after watching Phil this year I think he should move to the pen and hopefully be our closer.  He needs to regain the 2 mph he has lost the last year or two. Not that the Twins would do that given his salary...

 

 

[mickeymental]

 

I would love to see the Twins do what the 2014 Astros did and run out a very young team and let the kids play.   If it is June first and we are 15+ games out, why  not.

 

Berrios, May, and Meyer in the rotation.  Sano at 3B.  Buxton at CF.  Rosario and Kepler, etc.   If they trade any veterans at all, it will likely be August deadline like usual.  Too late to get value and to make room for young players

yes -- because now houston, two seasons hence, is one full game better than the twins at 8-17!!

[laloesch]

 

Twins are going to go 20-8 in May to be above 500 by the end of the month. We need someone to be positive on these forums!

 

Ha! With this free swinging lineup? I'll believe that when i see it. They couldn't hit the broad side of a barn with a baseball bat right now.

[tobi0040]

 

yes -- because now houston, two seasons hence, is one full game better than the twins at 8-17!!

 

To be fair, they had a 93 win pythag last year and were in the playoffs via the wild card game

[nicksaviking]

 

Twins are going to go 20-8 in May to be above 500 by the end of the month. We need someone to be positive on these forums!

 

Well I'm going to sound negative, but my intentions are positive:

 

I sure as hell hope they don't. Another season where they kind of compete, but are still really far from a contender will only keep this team from making the difficult decisions that need to be made to get this team ready for next year.

 

2015 was more fun than past years, but I think we all knew it was a bit of a facade, and it also prevented multiple opportunities for the young guys to get reps.

[mickeymental]

 

To be fair, they had a 93 win pythag last year and were in the playoffs via the wild card game

and to be fair, last year's twins had a horrible start but finished with 83 wins and a shot at a wildcard till the final weekend.

 

my ham-handed point is that, when dealing with the baseball gods, there is no surefire formula for success. for the twins at this point, giving youngsters a lot of major-league playing time might be the best path but doesn't guarantee anything. because maybe more seasoning in aa or aaa is actually the better route to take.

 

as for this season, maybe houston will climb back into the hunt. but -- you never know -- maybe the twins will, too. in other words, last year NOBODY expected a 20-8 month of may and sometimes lightning does strike twice. it is, after all, the crazy game of baseball ...

[tobi0040]

 

and to be fair, last year's twins had a horrible start but finished with 83 wins and a shot at a wildcard till the final weekend.

 

my ham-handed point is that, when dealing with the baseball gods, there is no surefire formula for success. for the twins at this point, giving youngsters a lot of major-league playing time might be the best path but doesn't guarantee anything. because maybe more seasoning in aa or aaa is actually the better route to take.

 

as for this season, maybe houston will climb back into the hunt. but -- you never know -- maybe the twins will, too. in other words, last year NOBODY expected a 20-8 month of may and sometimes lightning does strike twice. it is, after all, the crazy game of baseball ...

 

Houston’s pythag was 12 games better than the Twins last year.  I am totally with Nicksaving, last May was not helpful for the Twins. 

 

My money right now would be on the Astros jumping back in it and the Twins not.  They have a young core of bats that are producing.  Gomez won’t end the year with an OPS of .516, and they had a few pitchers who had a few bad turns in the rotation.  Guys that will likely improve.

 

What the Twins need as an organization is the ability to see what the highly vaulted farm system looks like, who can hack it and who needs to go to AAA to improve, and on what.  Today and tomorrow are great for Berrios and Meyer, I just hope they get enough reps this year so we can see what we have.  If we don’t, the odds increase that we have to DFA players like Meyer, Arcia, etc. who could have had value for the Twins.

 

 

[HitInAPinch]

I definitely see the Twins winning over 70.  I think those days are over.  For awhile, anyhow.

 

I believe the Twins are about to turn things around. The rotating of players isn't a big deal IMHO.

If nothing else, there seems to be players ready to step up.  That's a good thing.

 

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't think so.

This team has more raw talent than any of the last 5 bad years, but I think it's going to be a big time growing pain year figuring out how all the pieces fit.

I really think this club could lose 105+ games.

I know the vast majority will scoff at that, because on paper I agree we shouldn't lose that many.

But, does this club, collectively, do anything well?

They don't get on base, they strike out a ton, way more than their improved but still limited power can make up for.

They don't run the bases well, no team speed.

Bullpen is bad, defense is bad.

Starting pitching was surprisingly good early, but that's regressed significantly.

And, even when they were pitching well, they just don't go deep in games. That exposes their bullpen,and also taxes it, making it even worse.

They will also take some lumps with the young guys in the rotation now, which is fine, since it should prepare those guys for next year and beyond.

There will also be growing pains when guys like Burdi and Chargois and Kepler and Polanco start getting mlb playing time, which I think will happen sooner than later.

[Pardon My Dinger]

 

I don't think so.
This team has more raw talent than any of the last 5 bad years, but I think it's going to be a big time growing pain year figuring out how all the pieces fit.
I really think this club could lose 105+ games.
I know the vast majority will scoff at that, because on paper I agree we shouldn't lose that many.
But, does this club, collectively, do anything well?
They don't get on base, they strike out a ton, way more than their improved but still limited power can make up for.
They don't run the bases well, no team speed.
Bullpen is bad, defense is bad.
Starting pitching was surprisingly good early, but that's regressed significantly.
And, even when they were pitching well, they just don't go deep in games. That exposes their bullpen,and also taxes it, making it even worse.
They will also take some lumps with the young guys in the rotation now, which is fine, since it should prepare those guys for next year and beyond.
There will also be growing pains when guys like Burdi and Chargois and Kepler and Polanco start getting mlb playing time, which I think will happen sooner than later.

"Growing Pains"

by Brooksy Ginsberg