Is this a SSS, or reality?

[nicksaviking]

 

That's true.. But Santana is, without doubt, one of the Twins' five best starters. Therefore, he gets his spot back.

 

Yes, and if the team had to choose between Santana, Hughes and Nolasco short or long term, he should be the clear choice.

[nicksaviking]

 

 

It's just about good business. You don't piss off your employees for no reason - if you do, it makes it harder to hire good employees in the future.

 

If push comes to shove, Santana keeps his job over Hughes and Nolasco, but the team wouldn't be pissing off employees for no reason, there is a sound and logical reason, if the team wants to win in the future, they need to see what they have in their young arms.

 

Disgruntled baseball players are nothing new, the Twins cannot afford to cater to unhappy vets. That sets a worse precedent than failing to promote youth during a time of rebuild.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Meh, disagree. I think it was the worst thing that could have happened for maintaining the optimism of TD readers and posters but I don't think it altered the front office's plans at all. They've continued to prioritize a long-term view and have avoided the win-now moves that teams like the Astros made.

Trevor May and possibly Alex Meyer to the bullpen, as well as the trade of Chih-Wei Hu, suggest they've attempted some win-now moves. Maintaining their commitment to Suzuki as the starting catcher is another potential one, as is retaining vets like Plouffe.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Yes, and if the team had to choose between Santana, Hughes and Nolasco short or long term, he should be the clear choice.

Right now, my rotation would be:

 

Santana

Hughes (he hasn't pitched particularly well but he hasn't been terrible, either)

Nolasco

Berrios (after his second start, he earned a longer look)

Duffey/Meyer (let them scrap over the last spot and then evaluate the situation when Gibson is ready)

[nicksaviking]

 

Right now, my rotation would be:

 

Santana

Hughes (he hasn't pitched particularly well but he hasn't been terrible, either)

Nolasco

Berrios (after his second start, he earned a longer look)

Duffey/Meyer (let them scrap over the last spot and then evaluate the situation when Gibson is ready)

 

That's probably what will happen, and I won't be too frustrated if two of the young arms remain in the rotation, but personally, I'd prefer to see Hughes in the bullpen

 

I see that Hughes actually has given up 20% more groundballs than flyballs this year. That's obviously way off his career norms. When that percentage reverts back to normal and the weather warms up, he's going to be giving up more HR than ever. And he led the league last year.

 

This team just has to figure out a way to get out from under two of the Hughes/Santana/Nolasco contracts.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

That's probably what will happen, and I won't be too frustrated if two of the young arms remain in the rotation, but personally, I'd prefer to see Hughes in the bullpen

 

I see that Hughes actually has given up 20% more groundballs than flyballs this year. That's obviously way off his career norms. When that percentage reverts back to normal and the weather warms up, he's going to be giving up more HR than ever. And he led the league last year.

 

This team just has to figure out a way to get out from under two of the Hughes/Santana/Nolasco contracts.

I wouldn't give Hughes a long leash but I think he deserves at least 2-3 more starts before getting pulled form the rotation. He has been a mix of "meh, kinda bad" and "acceptable". Given his track record, he can go either direction but I'd let him show me a bit more before making a decision.

 

The stat to watch is Hughes' fastball velo. Currently, it's sitting right around his 2015 number, which is two miles slower than his

 

If that velocity stays in the 90-91 range in his next two starts, I wouldn't think too hard about the decision to put him in the pen.

[ThejacKmp]

 

If push comes to shove, Santana keeps his job over Hughes and Nolasco, but the team wouldn't be pissing off employees for no reason, there is a sound and logical reason, if the team wants to win in the future, they need to see what they have in their young arms.

 

Disgruntled baseball players are nothing new, the Twins cannot afford to cater to unhappy vets. That sets a worse precedent than failing to promote youth during a time of rebuild.

 

They would have to trade Santana if that's what they wanted. They can't just not play him or move him to the pen. He's earned that much by performance and service time.

 

The worst precedent would be to screw over veteran guys on your team because your fans gave up in early May and wanted to play young guys.

[ThejacKmp]

 

Trevor May and possibly Alex Meyer to the bullpen, as well as the trade of Chih-Wei Hu, suggest they've attempted some win-now moves. Maintaining their commitment to Suzuki as the starting catcher is another potential one, as is retaining vets like Plouffe.

 

These are all super minor moves which don’t really qualify as prioritizing winning now over development:

 

1) Alex Meyer was in the pen for like four days. He is now in the starting rotation.
2) Trevor May to the pen happened last year during a pennant race. This year there was too much competition for the rotation (largely because Ricky Nolasco was/is basically untradeable) but May to the pen is by no means a long-term set in stone plan. I expect he’ll be back competing in the rotation when things are much more open next spring.
3) Trading a middling back-of-the-rotation prospect for a reliever you can control for several years is hardly selling out the future.
4) Suzuki was the best of a bunch of bad choices. If they weren’t going to trade the farm for Lucroy or pay Russel Martin oodles of money, there wasn’t much of an upgrade over Suzuki over the past few years. Suzuki is on a reasonable deal that gives Garver/Turner time to develop. And the Twins traded Hicks for another catching prospect – a move for the future, not the present. Suzuki is blocking no one – JRM is blocking himself by playing pretty terribly. He’ll get more playing time as the season goes on (as you indicate with potential of course!).
5) Let’s not count Plouffe either. It made sense to see how the young guys would fare in the early going of the year and there was no market for Plouffe. If Plouffe isn’t a key part of a resurgence that puts us in contention, there’s every reason to think the Twins will move him at the deadline when the market is hopefully better.

 

I think it would be impossible to look at the Twins moves of the past 18 months and not see a commitment to the future. They signed some free agents (Suzuki, Santana) to fill in areas where they weren’t strong but they’ve by and large given their prospects and young guys a chance to grow without the focus on win now. I think it’s the right call.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

1) Alex Meyer was in the pen for like four days. He is now in the starting rotation.

Meyer was in the pen most of last season.  (And not the major league pen, even after rosters expanded in September and the minor league season ended.)

 

 

2) Trevor May to the pen happened last year during a pennant race. 

 

A pennant race we were in because of a somewhat flukey successful month of May.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

3) Trading a middling back-of-the-rotation prospect for a reliever you can control for several years is hardly selling out the future.

Very few single moves rise to that level.  I wasn't really bothered by it, but it was a move in that direction.  (By the way, Hu is off to a nice start in the Tampa system this year, 12.1 K/9 in his first taste of AA -- not that I think he's a stud now or anything, but he could be a fun name to watch, named a "Fringe Five" prospect again this week at Fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-fringe-five-baseballs-most-compelling-fringe-prospects-64/ )

 

 

4) Suzuki was the best of a bunch of bad choices. 

 

They didn't even bother trying to find another potential catcher of the future last year to play in the high minors or behind/with Suzuki at the MLB level.  They should have targeted a Murphy type at least a year earlier than they did.  Welington Castillo would have been a good chance for this club to take.

[USAFChief]

I'll make this easier- Mauer, Sano, and Berrios are off the table. Everyone else should be fair game.

Mauer would be at the the top of my trade list, if he would agree.

[kab21]

I have said it before and I will say it again but it is a long baseball season and teams need A LOT of starting pitching. They currently have way too many but these things work themselves out. The worst thing would be to DFA a couple of the veterans this early because once they are gone they can't come back and that is how you end up with Logan Darnell making 4 starts and Yohan Pino making 11 starts.

 

This logjam will sort itself out although I would have preferred Milone hadn't been brought back and I really expected Nolasco to pitch himself into a DFA rather quickly.

[Vanimal46]

 

Mauer would be at the the top of my trade list, if he would agree.

I don't think he would agree unfortunately. If he would agree, I'm willing to bet there'd actually be some good trade partners for his services. He's been one of the lone bright stars on this team so far.. It's been fun to watch vintage Mauer again. 

[jimmer]

 

I don't think he would agree unfortunately. If he would agree, I'm willing to bet there'd actually be some good trade partners for his services. He's been one of the lone bright stars on this team so far.. It's been fun to watch vintage Mauer again. 

Well, if they traded Mauer, they'd free up more money for the owner to pocket or get 2, 3 middling veterans.  I'd rather just have Mauer, myself.  He's not blocking anyone and he's still a quality hitter.  I don't care what he gets paid.  I have no faith the freed up money would be spent on an ace type pitcher or a pereniall all star position player.

 

If I was Mauer, I'd request a trade.  The way the fans have treated him over the last few years, the vitriol he's had to endure, and the fact this team will go nowhere for a few years (at least) would make me want to leave.

[Mr. Brooks]

Well, if they traded Mauer, they'd free up more money for the owner to pocket or get 2, 3 middling veterans. I'd rather just have Mauer, myself. He's not blocking anyone and he's still a quality hitter. I don't care what he gets paid. I have no faith the freed up money would be spent on an ace type pitcher or a pereniall all star position player.

 

If I was Mauer, I'd request a trade. The way the fans have treated him over the last few years, the vitriol he's had to endure, and the fact this team will go nowhere for a few years (at least) would make me want to leave.

I agree on your first part, with no cap and no faith the freed up money would be better spent, there is no reason to trade him just to dump salary.

 

Disagree on the second point though.

Any criticism he got here was tame to what he'd have gotten in a lot of markets.

Could you imagine what he'd have to endure in Philly or New York?

 

When teams charge admission, it's no longer a game, it's a service rendered. When someone pays money for a service and they get a subpar product, they have a right to complain. Sports should be no exception.

If it rises to personal threats, well that is just sad and pathetic, but I don't think he got much of that here.

[jimmer]

Mauer started getting dogged before he ever hit his real decline.  It started when fans decided that one outlier year should be his norm since he got a huge contract when that was never really Mauer's game. Then he had concussion issues.  

 

And some of the things he's gotten dogged for?

 

-Not standing at the stairs and cheering (even though he was a catcher at the time and he needed to have his gear on).  

-Being put in the 3 hole when A:  Not his choice, manager makes that call and B: No one better in the lineup to be there.

 

And more and more and so on and so on.  It's not legitimate gripes that bothered be, it's all extreme stretching for excuses.

 

And I'm not talking about markets like Philly and NY.  You named two of the three worst markets for fanbases.  

[Mr. Brooks]

Mauer started getting dogged before he ever hit his real decline. It started when fans decided that one outlier year should be his norm since he got a huge contract when that was never really Mauer's game. Then he had concussion issues.

 

And I'm not talking about markets like Philly and NY. You named two of the three worst markets for fanbases.

Yes, in fact, I recall he got criticized a lot right from the start, because he never hit HRs.

 

But, a few things:

 

1) Fans who don't understand the value of not making outs, and positional value are not exclusive to minnesota. This would have happened anywhere.

 

2) The markets I named are 2 of only a few that would be able to take on his contract, so the reality is those are the fans who would be judging him.

 

3) Fans still have the right to criticize even when they are wrong. That comes with the territory of being a professional athlete. It's a perfectly fair trade off for millions of dollars. It's a chosen profession, not forced, anyone not willing to make that trade off is free to take a less public job.

 

And again, if it rises to personal attacks or threats, that is pathetic and wrong.

[DocBauer]

It seems to me that the chances of making the post-season this year are very small, and that the best approach would be to focus on player development. It seems to me that this season is a lost cause, but I do see the potential for building a strong core that could compete for several years.

 

I see hope for future years based on the potentially high ceilings of some of the younger players. It seems to me that if the Twins could develop two or three all-star level players and surround them with four of five above average players then they would compete.

 

Based on the eye test, I see Sano as a potential all star 3B -- not a gold glover but the best hitter at his position and a solid fielder.

 

If  Buxton can overcome his hitting difficulties then he could become an all star CF.

 

If Berrios works out, I think that he could make some all star games.

 

In my opinion, these 3 players have decent shots at becoming all-stars. 

 

I also think that there are other young players who could become significantly above average if they work hard enough, including Arcia, Rosario, Kepler, Polanco, Duffey, May, and Mayer.

 

Further down in the system the Twins have Gonsalves, Chargois, Burdi and other players who seem to have high ceilings.

 

I think that the focus should be on developing these prospects while trying to build trade value for players whose ceilings are lower, such as Park, Plouffe, and Dozier.

 

I also think that catcher is a critical position and that the Twins need to give Murphy a lot more at bats to see what he can do if given regular playing time.  Hopefully Murphy can develop into a decent backup, and I also hoe that the Twins focus most of their trade efforts on picking up some catching prospects with high ceilings in the hope that one of them can come up next year. My sense is that it is difficult to compete without a very good catcher.

 

All of that said, I have learned to have little confidence in any such analysis, especially my own, and I will not be astounded if the Twins win (or lose) 20 games this month.

 

This a really smart post.

 

Take a step back for a moment and look at the nucleus of the team. Rosario is multi talented and one of the talented top prospects we've been waiting for. Don't give up too soon. Sano is legit, and he's only proven lately he can be a 3B. Park isn't exactly a youngster, but he's talented, and not old. Santana is a nice player. Nunez isn't bad. Polanco is possibly better than both and ready or almost ready. Arcia is still really yojng, still full of potential, has worked hard, and deserves his shot. Buxton and Kepler are potential studs...please don't let early promotions dissuade your opinion on their potential. That would be very short-sighted.

 

Berrios, Duffey, previous stud prospect Meyer, discussed at long length elsewhere, and Gibson are young starters on the cusp. And Shaggy and a couple others could move forward by mid season. I feel this shouldn't be viewed as a lost season, but rather, as a continuation of last season: a team with young talent coming to the forefront.

 

SSS? No. A team that overachieved last season who's goal should be to balance the young nucleus in place and promote top prospects...when ready after more IP and AB...take their lumps, and do their best to move veteran players and pitchers who don't fit in to the long term, despite financial concerns, YES.

 

WE don't need a rebuild. We just nod a calculated influx of our youngsters for this year to prepare for tomorrow.

[nicksaviking]

 

I have said it before and I will say it again but it is a long baseball season and teams need A LOT of starting pitching. They currently have way too many but these things work themselves out. The worst thing would be to DFA a couple of the veterans this early because once they are gone they can't come back and that is how you end up with Logan Darnell making 4 starts and Yohan Pino making 11 starts.

 

 

In a losing season, what's the harm in Dean, Darnell, Wheeler and Meyer being Plan B, C, D and E?

 

The team has pitching depth, it's just not made of quality veterans. For contending teams, veteran depth is a nice luxury, for a rebuilding team, it's an albatross if you feel the need to cater to the vets.

[Halsey Hall]

I see it coming....102 losses at least.  Can this team top 60 wins? I'm calling 60 on the button.

[Platoon]

I see it coming....102 losses at least.  Can this team top 60 wins? I'm calling 60 on the button.

A lot depends on whether Plouffe stays healthy! on a more serious note, the SP has become as expected. And no, it's not just because of the injuries. The last three starts Milone, Molasco, and Hughes have made have been ugly. A reminder that if there is a history to look to, a SSS, whether positive or negative, generally reverts to said history. Or as my dad said, you can't make a silk purse out of a sows ear, or vice versa!